Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis.

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Health after union dissolution(s): Cumulative and temporal dynamics.

The number of individuals experiencing one or multiple union dissolutions in their lifetime is increasing. The literature has shown significant interactions with health disorders, in response to the crisis situation that affects the spouses. However, processes are still unclear, in particular regarding the timing of the affection. This study explored whether different health disorders are observed shortly after dissolution or are delayed, and whether they are short- or long-lasting. We used data from the two waves (2006 and 2010) of the French Health and Professional Lives Survey (SIP) among 8349 individuals aged 25-64 years. Based on three health disorders, we studied 1) their levels in relation to the retrospective histories of union dissolutions; 2) health changes associated with a dissolution occurring between the two waves. We found that individuals who experienced one or multiple union dissolutions had worse self-rated health, more depressive symptoms and sleep disorders. The two latter were more related with a recent dissolution than with distant ones, suggesting an immediate association, yet long-lasting. Self-rated health was related with distant dissolutions only, suggesting a lagged, however also long-lasting association. Experiencing union dissolution between the two waves was linked to a higher probability of the onset of sleep disorders and depressive mood, and of deterioration of self-rated health if it was not the first dissolution. Our study shows that union dissolutions are highly correlated with different poor health measures, in the short and the long run, depending on the health disorder, with cumulative and durable effects.

Resources, aspirations and first births during the Great Recession.

Many studies show that labor market uncertainties are important predictors of the postponement of parenthood. While most existing studies investigate the consequences of the deterioration of employment conditions in absolute terms, in this paper I test the hypothesis that relative changes in occupational conditions affect childbearing choices. In particular, building on the Easterlin Hypothesis of resources and aspirations I investigate how intergenerational mobility among American men and women during the Great Recession affected their chances of becoming parents. Using respondents' labor market trajectories from the PSID 2003-2017 data, I show that when both men and women hold an occupational position as prestigious as that held by their parents when they were growing up, they are more likely to have a first child than when they hold a downward-mobile job. However, men and women differ in how this process is moderated by aggregate labor market conditions.