Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis.

The common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on A. artemisiifolia in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a 'double' invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that A. artemisiifolia mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. A. artemisiifolia is predicted to expand more than O. communa in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for O. communa to potentially control A. artemisiifolia in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.

Coupling GIS spatial analysis and Ensemble Niche Modelling to investigate climate change-related threats to the Sicilian pond turtle Emys trinacris, an endangered species from the Mediterranean.

The pond turtle Emys trinacris is an endangered endemic species of Sicily showing a fragmented distribution throughout the main island. In this study, we applied "Ensemble Niche Modelling", combining more classical statistical techniques as Generalized Linear Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with machine-learning approaches as Boosted Regression Trees and Maxent, to model the potential distribution of the species under current and future climatic conditions. Moreover, a "gap analysis" performed on both the species' presence sites and the predictions from the Ensemble Models is proposed to integrate outputs from these models, in order to assess the conservation status of this threatened species in the context of biodiversity management. For this aim, four "Representative Concentration Pathways", corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissions trajectories were considered to project the obtained models to both 2050 and 2070. Areas lost, gained or remaining stable for the target species in the projected models were calculated. E. trinacris' potential distribution resulted to be significantly dependent upon precipitation-linked variables, mainly precipitation of wettest and coldest quarter. Future negative effects for the conservation of this species, because of more unstable precipitation patterns and extreme meteorological events, emerged from our analyses. Further, the sites currently inhabited by E. trinacris are, for more than a half, out of the Protected Areas network, highlighting an inadequate management of the species by the authorities responsible for its protection. Our results, therefore, suggest that in the next future the Sicilian pond turtle will need the utmost attention by the scientific community to avoid the imminent risk of extinction. Finally, the gap analysis performed in GIS environment resulted to be a very informative post-modeling technique, potentially applicable to the management of species at risk and to Protected Areas' planning in many contexts.

Sociality influences thermoregulation and roost switching in a forest bat using ephemeral roosts.

In summer, many temperate bat species use daytime torpor, but breeding females do so less to avoid interferences with reproduction. In forest-roosting bats, deep tree cavities buffer roost microclimate from abrupt temperature oscillations and facilitate thermoregulation. Forest bats also switch roosts frequently, so thermally suitable cavities may be limiting. We tested how barbastelle bats (Barbastella barbastellus), often roosting beneath flaking bark in snags, may thermoregulate successfully despite the unstable microclimate of their preferred cavities. We assessed thermoregulation patterns of bats roosting in trees in a beech forest of central Italy. Although all bats used torpor, females were more often normothermic. Cavities were poorly insulated, but social thermoregulation probably overcomes this problem. A model incorporating the presence of roost mates and group size explained thermoregulation patterns better than others based, respectively, on the location and structural characteristics of tree roosts and cavities, weather, or sex, reproductive or body condition. Homeothermy was recorded for all subjects, including nonreproductive females: This probably ensures availability of a warm roosting environment for nonvolant juveniles. Homeothermy may also represent a lifesaver for bats roosting beneath loose bark, very exposed to predators, because homeothermic bats may react quickly in case of emergency. We also found that barbastelle bats maintain group cohesion when switching roosts: This may accelerate roost occupation at the end of a night, quickly securing a stable microclimate in the newly occupied cavity. Overall, both thermoregulation and roost-switching patterns were satisfactorily explained as adaptations to a structurally and thermally labile roosting environment.