An Approach to Developing a Prediction Model of Fertility Intent Among HIV-Positive Women and Men in Cape Town, South Africa: A Case Study.

As a 'case-study' to demonstrate an approach to establishing a fertility-intent prediction model, we used data collected from recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 69) and men (N = 55) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in a sexual and reproductive health intervention in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town, South Africa. Three theoretically-driven prediction models showed reasonable sensitivity (0.70-1.00), specificity (0.66-0.94), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.79-0.89) for predicting fertility intent at the 6-month visit. A k-fold cross-validation approach was employed to reduce bias due to over-fitting of data in estimating sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. We discuss how the methods presented might be used in future studies to develop a clinical screening tool to identify HIV-positive individuals likely to have future fertility intent and who could therefore benefit from sexual and reproductive health counseling around fertility options.

Pregnancy intent among a sample of recently diagnosed HIV-positive women and men practicing unprotected sex in Cape Town, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services for HIV-positive women and men often neglect their fertility desires. We examined factors associated with pregnancy intent among recently diagnosed HIV-positive women (N = 106) and men (N = 91) who reported inconsistent condom use and were enrolled in an SRH intervention conducted in public sector HIV care clinics in Cape Town. METHODS: Participants were recruited when receiving their first CD4 results at the clinic. All reported unprotected sex in the previous 3 months. Logistic regression identified predictors of pregnancy intent for the total sample and by gender. RESULTS: About three fifths of men and one fifth of women reported intent to conceive in the next 6 months. In the full-sample multiple regression analysis, men [adjusted odds ratio (AOR = 6.62)] and those whose main partner shared intent to conceive (AOR = 3.80) had significantly higher odds of pregnancy intent; those with more years of education (AOR = 0.81) and more biological children (AOR = 0.62) had lower odds of intending pregnancy. In gender-specific analyses, partner sharing pregnancy intent was positively associated with intent among both men (AOR = 3.53) and women (AOR = 13.24). Among men, odds were lower among those having more biological children (AOR = 0.71) and those unemployed (AOR = 0.30). Among women, relying on hormonal contraception was negatively associated with intent (AOR = 0.08), and main partner knowing her HIV status (AOR = 5.80) was positively associated with intent to conceive. CONCLUSIONS: Findings underscore the importance of providing integrated SRH services, and we discuss implications for clinical practice and care.

Cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and HPV type 16 antibodies in South African women.

There is a high incidence of cervical cancer in South African women. No large studies to assess human papillomavirus virus (HPV) infection or HPV type 16 (HPV-16) exposure have occurred in the region, a requirement for policy making with regards to HPV screening and the introduction of vaccines. Control women (n = 1,003) enrolled in a case control study of hormonal contraceptives and cervical cancer were tested for 27 cervical HPV types by reverse line blot analysis. The seroprevalence of HPV-16 immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgA antibodies was assessed by a virus-like particle-based enzyme-linked immunoassay of 908 and 904 control women, respectively, and of 474 women with cervical cancer. The cervical HPV prevalence was 26.1%. The HPV-16 IgG seroprevalence was 44.4% and the HPV-16 IgA seroprevalence was 28.7% in control women, and these levels were significantly higher (61.8% and 52.7%, respectively) for women with cervical cancer (odds ratio [OR], 2.1 and 2.8, respectively). The cervical HPV prevalence showed an association with cervical disease, and the HPV-16 IgG prevalence decreased while the HPV-16 IgA prevalence increased with increasing age (P < 0.05). The prevalence of oncogenic HPV types (including HPV-16) decreased with age, whereas nononcogenic HPV types showed limited association with age. Multivariate analysis revealed cervical HPV infection to be associated with herpes simplex virus type 2 infection (OR, 1.7) and increasing years of education (OR, 1.9). HPV-16 IgG antibodies were inversely associated with current smoking status (OR, 0.6), and the presence of HPV-16 IgA antibodies was inversely associated with the use of alcohol (OR, 2.1) and inversely associated with the use of oral contraceptives (OR, 0.6). High levels of exposure to HPV, and particularly HPV-16, were evident in this population. The apparent increase of serum HPV-16 IgA with increasing age requires further investigation.

The allelic distribution of -308 Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha gene polymorphism in South African women with cervical cancer and control women.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer is due to infection with specific high-risk types of human papillomavirus (HPV). Although the incidence of genital HPV infection in various population groups is high, most of these regress without intervention. Investigating genetic host factors and cellular immune responses, particularly cytokines, could help to understand the association between genital HPV infection and carcinogenesis. The tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) cytokine plays an important role in all stages of cervical cancer and has the ability to induce the regression of human tumors. Therefore the aim of the study was to investigate the allelic distribution of -308 TNF-alpha gene polymorphism in South African women with cervical cancer compared to control women. METHODS: Included in our study were women with histologically proven cancer of the cervix (n = 244) and hospital-based controls (n = 228). All patients and controls were from mixed race and black population groups in South Africa. The detection of a bi-allelic -308 (A/G) polymorphism in the promoter region of TNF-alpha was investigated using the amplification refractory mutation system-polymerase chain reaction (ARMS-PCR) technique. The distributions of the allelic frequencies were stratified in both patients and controls into two South African ethnic population groups. RESULTS: In this study we observed no association between the distribution of -308 TNF-alpha polymorphism and the risk of developing cervical cancer even after combining the data from the two ethnic populations (X2 = 2.26). In addition, using the chi-squared test we found no significant association between the known risk factors for cervical cancer and the allele distribution of -308 TNF-alpha. However, the frequency of the rare high-producing allele -308A of TNF-alpha was significantly lower in the South African population when compared to Caucasians and Chinese population groups. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated no association between -308 TNF-alpha polymorphism and the risk of cervical cancer among two South African ethnic population groups. However, as the distribution of the -308A TNF-alpha was notably different between the control groups of South Africa and other population groups this result suggests that ethnic disparity may influence the levels of TNF-alpha produced.