An evaluation of models that estimate droplet size from subsurface oil releases.

Droplet size substantially affects the fate of oil released from deep subsea leaks. A baseline dataset of volume-median droplet diameters (d50), culled from ~250 laboratory observations, is used to validate seven droplet-size models. Four models compare reasonably well, having 95% confidence limits in d50 of ~±50%. Simulations with a near-field fate model (TAMOC) reveals that the four best-performing models, with d50 of 1.3-2.2 mm, agree similarly with observed fractionation of petroleum compounds in the water column during June 4-July 15, 2010. Model results suggest that, had a higher dose of dispersant been applied at the wellhead during Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH), the d50 would have dropped by an order of magnitude, reducing surfacing C1-C9 volatiles by 3.5×. Model uncertainty is found to be substantial for DWH-like blowouts treated with chemical dispersants, suggesting the need for further droplet-size model improvement.

Newly recognized turbidity current structure can explain prolonged flushing of submarine canyons.

Seabed-hugging flows called turbidity currents are the volumetrically most important process transporting sediment across our planet and form its largest sediment accumulations. We seek to understand the internal structure and behavior of turbidity currents by reanalyzing the most detailed direct measurements yet of velocities and densities within oceanic turbidity currents, obtained from weeklong flows in the Congo Canyon. We provide a new model for turbidity current structure that can explain why these are far more prolonged than all previously monitored oceanic turbidity currents, which lasted for only hours or minutes at other locations. The observed Congo Canyon flows consist of a short-lived zone of fast and dense fluid at their front, which outruns the slower moving body of the flow. We propose that the sustained duration of these turbidity currents results from flow stretching and that this stretching is characteristic of mud-rich turbidity current systems. The lack of stretching in previously monitored flows is attributed to coarser sediment that settles out from the body more rapidly. These prolonged seafloor flows rival the discharge of the Congo River and carry ~2% of the terrestrial organic carbon buried globally in the oceans each year through a single submarine canyon. Thus, this new structure explains sustained flushing of globally important amounts of sediment, organic carbon, nutrients, and fresh water into the deep ocean.

Intercomparison of oil spill prediction models for accidental blowout scenarios with and without subsea chemical dispersant injection.

We compare oil spill model predictions for a prototype subsea blowout with and without subsea injection of chemical dispersants in deep and shallow water, for high and low gas-oil ratio, and in weak to strong crossflows. Model results are compared for initial oil droplet size distribution, the nearfield plume, and the farfield Lagrangian particle tracking stage of hydrocarbon transport. For the conditions tested (a blowout with oil flow rate of 20,000 bbl/d, about 1/3 of the Deepwater Horizon), the models predict the volume median droplet diameter at the source to range from 0.3 to 6mm without dispersant and 0.01 to 0.8 mm with dispersant. This reduced droplet size owing to reduced interfacial tension results in a one to two order of magnitude increase in the downstream displacement of the initial oil surfacing zone and may lead to a significant fraction of the spilled oil not reaching the sea surface.