Efficient and Informative Laboratory Testing for Rapid Confirmation of H5N1 (Clade 2.3.4.4) High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Outbreaks in the United Kingdom.

During the early stages of the UK 2021-2022 H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) epizootic in commercial poultry, 12 infected premises (IPs) were confirmed by four real-time reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RRT)-PCRs, which identified the viral subtype and pathotype. An assessment was undertaken to evaluate whether a large sample throughput would challenge laboratory capacity during an exceptionally large epizootic; hence, assay performance across our test portfolio was investigated. Statistical analysis of RRT-PCR swab testing supported it to be focused on a three-test approach, featuring the matrix (M)-gene, H5 HPAIV-specific (H5-HP) and N1 RRT-PCRs, which was successfully assessed at 29 subsequent commercial IPs. The absence of nucleotide mismatches in the primer/probe binding regions for the M-gene and limited mismatches for the H5-HP RRT-PCR underlined their high sensitivity. Although less sensitive, the N1 RRT-PCR remained effective at flock level. The analyses also guided successful surveillance testing of apparently healthy commercial ducks from at-risk premises, with pools of five oropharyngeal swabs tested by the H5-HP RRT-PCR to exclude evidence of infection. Serological testing at anseriform H5N1 HPAIV outbreaks, together with quantitative comparisons of oropharyngeal and cloacal shedding, provided epidemiological information concerning the chronology of initial H5N1 HPAIV incursion and onward spread within an IP.

Detection of H3N8 influenza A virus with multiple mammalian-adaptive mutations in a rescued Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup.

Avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) in different species of seals display a spectrum of pathogenicity, from sub-clinical infection to mass mortality events. Here we present an investigation of avian IAV infection in a 3- to 4-month-old Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup, rescued from St Michael's Mount, Cornwall in 2017. The pup underwent medical treatment but died after two weeks; post-mortem examination and histology indicated sepsis as the cause of death. IAV NP antigen was detected by immunohistochemistry in the nasal mucosa, and sensitive real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays detected trace amounts of viral RNA within the lower respiratory tract, suggesting that the infection may have been cleared naturally. IAV prevalence among Grey seals may therefore be underestimated. Moreover, contact with humans during the rescue raised concerns about potential zoonotic risk. Nucleotide sequencing revealed the virus to be of subtype H3N8. Combining a GISAID database BLAST search and time-scaled phylogenetic analyses, we inferred that the seal virus originated from an unsampled, locally circulating (in Northern Europe) viruses, likely from wild Anseriformes. From examining the protein alignments, we found several residue changes in the seal virus that did not occur in the bird viruses, including D701N in the PB2 segment, a rare mutation, and a hallmark of mammalian adaptation of bird viruses. IAVs of H3N8 subtype have been noted for their particular ability to cross the species barrier and cause productive infections, including historical records suggesting that they may have caused the 1889 pandemic. Therefore, infections such as the one we report here may be of interest to pandemic surveillance and risk and help us better understand the determinants and drivers of mammalian adaptation in influenza.

Advance decisions to refuse treatment and suicidal behaviour in emergency care: 'it's very much a step into the unknown'.

BACKGROUND: Complex challenges may arise when patients present to emergency services with an advance decision to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour. AIMS: To investigate the use of advance decisions to refuse treatment in the context of suicidal behaviour from the perspective of clinicians and people with lived experience of self-harm and/or psychiatric services. METHOD: Forty-one participants aged 18 or over from hospital services (emergency departments, liaison psychiatry and ambulance services) and groups of individuals with experience of psychiatric services and/or self-harm were recruited to six focus groups in a multisite study in England. Data were collected in 2016 using a structured topic guide and included a fictional vignette. They were analysed using thematic framework analysis. RESULTS: Advance decisions to refuse treatment for suicidal behaviour were contentious across groups. Three main themes emerged from the data: (a) they may enhance patient autonomy and aid clarity in acute emergencies, but also create legal and ethical uncertainty over treatment following self-harm; (b) they are anxiety provoking for clinicians; and (c) in practice, there are challenges in validation (for example, validating the patient's mental capacity at the time of writing), time constraints and significant legal/ethical complexities. CONCLUSIONS: The potential for patients to refuse life-saving treatment following suicidal behaviour in a legal document was challenging and anxiety provoking for participants. Clinicians should act with caution given the potential for recovery and fluctuations in suicidal ideation. Currently, advance decisions to refuse treatment have questionable use in the context of suicidal behaviour given the challenges in validation. Discussion and further patient research are needed in this area. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: D.G., K.H. and N.K. are members of the Department of Health's (England) National Suicide Prevention Advisory Group. N.K. chaired the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development group for the longer-term management of self-harm and the NICE Topic Expert Group (which developed the quality standards for self-harm services). He is currently chair of the updated NICE guideline for Depression. K.H. and D.G. are NIHR Senior Investigators. K.H. is also supported by the Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust and N.K. by the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust.

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population.

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.

Proceedings Paper-Avian Diseases 10th AI Symposium Issue Development and Application of Real-Time PCR Assays for Specific Detection of Contemporary Avian Influenza Virus Subtypes N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9.

Previously published NA subtype-specific real-time reverse-transcriptase PCRs (RRT-PCRs) were further validated for the detection of five avian influenza virus (AIV) NA subtypes, namely N5, N6, N7, N8, and N9. Testing of 30 AIV isolates of all nine NA subtypes informed the assay assessments, with the N5 and N9 RRT-PCRs retained as the original published assays while the N7 and N8 assays were modified in the primer-probe sequences to optimize detection of current threats. The preferred N6 RRT-PCR was either the original or the modified variant, depending on the specific H5N6 lineage. Clinical specimen (n = 137) testing revealed the ability of selected N5, N6, and N8 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) infections due to H5N5, H5N6, and H5N8 subtypes, respectively, all originating from European poultry and wild bird cases during 2016-2018. Similar testing (n = 32 clinical specimens) also showed the ability of N7 and N9 RRT-PCRs to sensitively detect European H7N7 HPAIV and China-origin H7N9 low pathogenicity AIV infections, respectively.

Desarrollo y aplicación de ensayos de PCR en tiempo real para la detección específica de subtipos contemporáneos de influenza aviar Virus N5, N6, N7, N8 y N9. Métodos de transcripción reversa y PCR en tiempo real (RRT) específicos para subtipo específico de NA que fueron publicados anteriormente se validaron completamente para la detección de cinco subtipos de NA del virus de la influenza aviar (AIV), incluyendo N5, N6, N7, N8 y N9. El análisis de 30 aislamientos del virus de la influenza aviar de los nueve subtipos de NA proporcionaron información acerca de las evaluaciones de los ensayos, con los métodos de RRT-PCR N5 y N9 evaluados de acuerdo a los ensayos originales, mientras que los métodos N7 y N8 se modificaron en las secuencias del iniciador y de la sonda para optimizar la detección de los virus que constituyen amenazas actuales. Los métodos de RRT-PCR para el subtipo N6 preferido fueron tanto el dirigido al virus original o el dirigido a la variante modificada, dependiendo del linaje específico de H5N6. Las pruebas de muestras clínicas (n=137) revelaron que los métodos RRT-PCR seleccionados para N5, N6 y N8 detectaron con sensibilidad los subtipos del clado 2.3.4.4b del virus de la influenza aviar altamente patógenos H5N5, H5N6 y H5N8, respectivamente, todos originados en Europa de casos en avicultura comercial y de aves silvestres durante el año 2016 al 2018. Estudios similares (muestras clínicas n = 32) también mostraron que los métodos de RRT-PCR para los subtipos N7 y N9 detectaron con sensibilidad las infecciones por el virus H7N7 de alta patogenicidad europeo y por el subtipo H7N9 de origen chino de baja patogenicidad, respectivamente.

Management of patients with an advance decision and suicidal behaviour: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The use of advance care planning and advance decisions for psychiatric care is growing. However, there is limited guidance on clinical management when a patient presents with suicidal behaviour and an advance decision and no systematic reviews of the extant literature. OBJECTIVES: To synthesise existing literature on the management of advance decisions and suicidal behaviour. DESIGN: A systematic search of seven bibliographic databases was conducted to identify studies relating to advance decisions and suicidal behaviour. Studies on terminal illness or end-of-life care were excluded to focus on the use of advance decisions in the context of suicidal behaviour. A textual synthesis of data was conducted, and themes were identified by using an adapted thematic framework analysis approach. RESULTS: Overall 634 articles were identified, of which 35 were retained for full text screening. Fifteen relevant articles were identified following screening. Those articles pertained to actual clinical cases or fictional scenarios. Clinical practice and rationale for management decisions varied. Five themes were identified: (1) tension between patient autonomy and protecting a vulnerable person, (2) appropriateness of advance decisions for suicidal behaviour, (3) uncertainty about the application of legislation, (4) the length of time needed to consider all the evidence versus rapid decision-making for treatment and (5) importance of seeking support and sharing decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: Advance decisions present particular challenges for clinicians when associated with suicidal behaviour. Recommendations for practice and supervision for clinicians may help to reduce the variation in clinical practice.

Accuracy of risk scales for predicting repeat self-harm and suicide: a multicentre, population-level cohort study using routine clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Risk scales are used widely in the management of patients presenting to hospital following self-harm. However, there is evidence that their diagnostic accuracy in predicting repeat self-harm is limited. Their predictive accuracy in population settings, and in identifying those at highest risk of suicide is not known. METHOD: We compared the predictive accuracy of the Manchester Self-Harm Rule (MSHR), ReACT Self-Harm Rule (ReACT), SAD PERSONS Scale (SPS) and Modified SAD PERSONS Scale (MSPS) in an unselected sample of patients attending hospital following self-harm. Data on 4000 episodes of self-harm presenting to Emergency Departments (ED) between 2010 and 2012 were obtained from four established monitoring systems in England. Episodes were assigned a risk category for each scale and followed up for 6 months. RESULTS: The episode-based repeat rate was 28% (1133/4000) and the incidence of suicide was 0.5% (18/3962). The MSHR and ReACT performed with high sensitivity (98% and 94% respectively) and low specificity (15% and 23%). The SPS and the MSPS performed with relatively low sensitivity (24-29% and 9-12% respectively) and high specificity (76-77% and 90%). The area under the curve was 71% for both MSHR and ReACT, 51% for SPS and 49% for MSPS. Differences in predictive accuracy by subgroup were small. The scales were less accurate at predicting suicide than repeat self-harm. CONCLUSIONS: The scales failed to accurately predict repeat self-harm and suicide. The findings support existing clinical guidance not to use risk classification scales alone to determine treatment or predict future risk.

Premature Death Among Primary Care Patients With a History of Self-Harm.

PURPOSE: Self-harm is a public health problem that requires a better understanding of mortality risk. We undertook a study to examine premature mortality in a nationally representative cohort of primary care patients who had harmed themselves. METHODS: During 2001-2013, a total of 385 general practices in England contributed data to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linkage to Office for National Statistics mortality records. We identified 30,017 persons aged 15 to 64 years with a recorded episode of self-harm. We estimated the relative risks of all-cause and cause-specific natural and unnatural mortality using a comparison cohort of 600,258 individuals matched on age, sex, and general practice. RESULTS: We found an elevated risk of dying prematurely from any cause among the self-harm cohort, especially in the first year of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio for that year, 3.6; 95% CI, 3.1-4.2). In particular, suicide risk was especially high during the first year (adjusted hazard ratio, 54.4; 95% CI, 34.3-86.3); although it declined sharply, it remained much higher than that in the comparison cohort. Large elevations of risk throughout the follow-up period were also observed for accidental, alcohol-related, and drug poisoning deaths. At 10 years of follow-up, cumulative incidence values were 6.5% (95% CI, 6.0%-7.1%) for all-cause mortality and 1.3% (95% CI, 1.2%-1.5%) for suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Primary care patients who have harmed themselves are at greatly increased risk of dying prematurely by natural and unnatural causes, and especially within a year of a first episode. These individuals visit clinicians at a relatively high frequency, which presents a clear opportunity for preventive action. Primary care patients with myriad comorbidities, including self-harming behavior, mental disorder, addictions, and physical illnesses, will require concerted, multipronged, multidisciplinary collaborative care approaches.

Predictive accuracy of risk scales following self-harm: multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BackgroundScales are widely used in psychiatric assessments following self-harm. Robust evidence for their diagnostic use is lacking.AimsTo evaluate the performance of risk scales (Manchester Self-Harm Rule, ReACT Self-Harm Rule, SAD PERSONS scale, Modified SAD PERSONS scale, Barratt Impulsiveness Scale); and patient and clinician estimates of risk in identifying patients who repeat self-harm within 6 months.MethodA multisite prospective cohort study was conducted of adults aged 18 years and over referred to liaison psychiatry services following self-harm. Scale a priori cut-offs were evaluated using diagnostic accuracy statistics. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to determine optimal cut-offs and compare global accuracy.ResultsIn total, 483 episodes of self-harm were included in the study. The episode-based 6-month repetition rate was 30% (n = 145). Sensitivity ranged from 1% (95% CI 0-5) for the SAD PERSONS scale, to 97% (95% CI 93-99) for the Manchester Self-Harm Rule. Positive predictive values ranged from 13% (95% CI 2-47) for the Modified SAD PERSONS Scale to 47% (95% CI 41-53) for the clinician assessment of risk. The AUC ranged from 0.55 (95% CI 0.50-0.61) for the SAD PERSONS scale to 0.74 (95% CI 0.69-0.79) for the clinician global scale. The remaining scales performed significantly worse than clinician and patient estimates of risk (P<0.001).ConclusionsRisk scales following self-harm have limited clinical utility and may waste valuable resources. Most scales performed no better than clinician or patient ratings of risk. Some performed considerably worse. Positive predictive values were modest. In line with national guidelines, risk scales should not be used to determine patient management or predict self-harm.

High-Volume Repeaters of Self-Harm.

BACKGROUND: Repetition of self-harm is common and is strongly associated with suicide. Despite this, there is limited research on high-volume repetition. AIM: To investigate individuals with high-volume repeat self-harm attendances to the emergency department (ED), including their patterns of attendance and mortality. METHOD: Data from the Multicentre Study of Self-Harm in England were used. High-volume repetition was defined as ⩾15 attendances within 4 years. An attendance timeline was constructed for each high-volume repeater (HVR) and the different patterns of attendance were explored using an executive sorting task and hierarchical cluster analysis. RESULTS: A small proportion of self-harm patients are HVRs (0.6%) but they account for a large percentage of self-harm attendances (10%). In this study, the new methodological approach resulted in three types of attendance patterns. All of the HVRs had clusters of attendance and a greater proportion died from external causes compared with non-HVRs. CONCLUSION: The approach used in this study offers a new method for investigating this problem that could have both clinical and research benefits. The need for early intervention is highlighted by the large number of self-harm episodes per patient, the clustered nature of attendances, and the higher prevalence of death from external causes.

Clinical management following self-harm in a UK-wide primary care cohort.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the clinical management of patients in primary care following self-harm. METHODS: A descriptive cohort study using data from 684 UK general practices that contributed to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) during 2001-2013. We identified 49,970 patients with a self-harm episode, 41,500 of whom had one complete year of follow-up. RESULTS: Among those with complete follow-up, 26,065 (62.8%, 62.3-63.3) were prescribed psychotropic medication and 6318 (15.2%, 14.9-15.6) were referred to mental health services; 4105 (9.9%, CI 9.6-10.2) were medicated without an antecedent psychiatric diagnosis or referral, and 4,506 (10.9%, CI 10.6-11.2) had a diagnosis but were not subsequently medicated or referred. Patients registered at practices in the most deprived localities were 27.1% (CI 21.5-32.2) less likely to be referred than those in the least deprived. Despite a specifically flagged NICE 'Do not do' recommendation in 2011 against prescribing tricyclic antidepressants following self-harm because of their potentially lethal toxicity in overdose, 8.8% (CI 7.8-9.8) of individuals were issued a prescription in the subsequent year. The percentage prescribed Citalopram, an SSRI antidepressant with higher toxicity in overdose, fell sharply during 2012/2013 in the aftermath of a Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) safety alert issued in 2011. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively small percentage of these vulnerable patients are referred to mental health services, and reduced likelihood of referral in more deprived localities reflects a marked health inequality. National clinical guidelines have not yet been effective in reducing rates of tricyclic antidepressant prescribing for this high-risk group.

The epidemiology of self-harm in a UK-wide primary care patient cohort, 2001-2013.

BACKGROUND: Most of the research conducted on people who harm themselves has been undertaken in secondary healthcare settings. Little is known about the frequency of self-harm in primary care patient populations. This is the first study to describe the epidemiology of self-harm presentations to primary care using broadly representative national data from across the United Kingdom (UK). METHODS: Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), we calculated directly standardised rates of incidence and annual presentation during 2001-2013. Rates were compared by gender and age and across the nations of the UK, and also by degree of socioeconomic deprivation measured ecologically at general practice level. RESULTS: We found significantly elevated rates in females vs. males for incidence (rate ratio - RR, 1.45, 95 % confidence interval - CI, 1.42-1.47) and for annual presentation (RR 1.56, CI 1.54-1.58). An increasing trend over time in incidence was apparent for males (P < 0.001) but not females (P = 0.08), and both genders exhibited rising temporal trends in presentation rates (P < 0.001). We observed a decreasing gradient of risk with increasing age and markedly elevated risk for females in the youngest age group (aged 15-24 years vs. all other females: RR 3.75, CI 3.67-3.83). Increasing presentation rates over time were observed for males across all age bands (P < 0.001). We found higher rates when comparing Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales with England, and increasing rates of presentation over time for all four nations. We also observed higher rates with increasing levels of deprivation - most vs. least deprived male patients: RR 2.17, CI 2.10-2.25. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating data from primary care yields a more comprehensive quantification of the health burden of self-harm. These novel findings may be useful in informing public health programmes and the targeting of high-risk groups toward the ultimate goal of lowering risk of self-harm repetition and premature death in this population.

Psychosocial Assessment of Self-Harm Patients and Risk of Repeat Presentation: An Instrumental Variable Analysis Using Time of Hospital Presentation.

BACKGROUND: Clinical guidelines have recommended psychosocial assessment of self-harm patients for years, yet estimates of its impact on the risk of repeat self-harm vary. Assessing the association of psychosocial assessment with risk of repeat self-harm is challenging due to the effects of confounding by indication. METHODS: We analysed data from a cohort study of 15,113 patients presenting to the emergency departments of three UK hospitals to investigate the association of psychosocial assessment with risk of repeat hospital presentation for self-harm. Time of day of hospital presentation was used as an instrument for psychosocial assessment, attempting to control for confounding by indication. RESULTS: Conventional regression analysis suggested psychosocial assessment was not associated with risk of repeat self-harm within 12 months (Risk Difference (RD) 0.00 95% confidence interval (95%CI) -0.01 to 0.02). In contrast, IV analysis suggested risk of repeat self-harm was reduced by 18% (RD -0.18, 95%CI -0.32 to -0.03) in those patients receiving a psychosocial assessment. However, the instrument of time of day did not remove all potential effects of confounding by indication, suggesting the IV effect estimate may be biased. CONCLUSIONS: We found that psychosocial assessments reduce risk of repeat self-harm. This is in-line with other non-randomised studies based on populations in which allocation to assessment was less subject to confounding by indication. However, as our instrument did not fully balance important confounders across time of day, the IV effect estimate should be interpreted with caution.

The exacerbating influence of hopelessness on other known risk factors for repeat self-harm and suicide.

BACKGROUND: Hopelessness is frequently observed in people who harm themselves and is an established risk factor for nonfatal self-harm repetition and suicide. Little is known about how the presence of hopelessness in addition to other risk factors affects subsequent risk. METHOD: Prospective cohort of 19,479 individuals presenting with self-harm to one of three English Emergency Departments between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2010. Repeat self-harm and suicide deaths within twelve months of the first assessed episode were identified. Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to estimate Hazard Ratios (HRs) for risk factors with and without hopelessness. RESULTS: A clinical impression of hopelessness was associated with increased risk of further self-harm (HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.16-1.58) and suicide (HR 2.56, CI 1.10-5.96) in the year following an index episode. For individuals who were living alone or homeless, unemployed, reported problems with housing, had received psychiatric treatment in the past, were currently receiving treatment or used alcohol during the self-harm episode, an exacerbation of an already elevated risk of repetition was observed amongst those who were assessed as hopeless. Where individuals presented with forensic problems, physical health problems or bereavement, an increase in risk was only observed for those who were also assessed as hopeless. LIMITATIONS: A clinical impression of hopelessness was assigned using a binary "yes"/"no" classification rather than a validated scale. CONCLUSIONS: Hopelessness intensifies the impact of several known risk factors for adverse outcomes following self-harm. These findings highlight the importance of identifying and therapeutically addressing this dynamic but potentially modifiable clinical risk factor during the psychosocial assessment and in subsequent care.

Self-harm and life problems: findings from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England.

PURPOSE: Self-harm is a major clinical problem and is strongly linked to suicide. It is important to understand the problems faced by those who self-harm to design effective clinical services and suicide prevention strategies. We investigated the life problems experienced by patients presenting to general hospitals for self-harm. METHODS: Data for 2000-2010 from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England were used to investigate life problems associated with self-harm and their relationship to patient and clinical characteristics, including age, gender, repeat self-harm and employment status. RESULTS: Of 24,598 patients (36,431 assessed episodes), 57% were female and with a mean age of 33.1 years (SD 14.0 years), 92.6% were identified as having at least one contributing life problem. The most frequently reported problems at first episode of self-harm within the study period were relationship difficulties (especially with partners). Mental health issues and problems with alcohol were also very common (especially in those aged 35-54 years, and those who repeated self-harm). Those who repeated self-harm were more likely to report problems with housing, mental health and dealing with the consequences of abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Self-harm usually occurs in the context of multiple life problems. Clinical services for self-harm patients should have access to appropriate care for provision of help for relationship difficulties and problems concerning alcohol and mental health issues. Individualised clinical support (e.g. psychological therapy, interventions for alcohol problems and relationship counselling) for self-harm patients facing these life problems may play a crucial role in suicide prevention.

Impact of the recent recession on self-harm: Longitudinal ecological and patient-level investigation from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England.

BACKGROUND: Economic recessions are associated with increases in suicide rates but there is little information for non-fatal self-harm. AIMS: To investigate the impact of the recent recession on rates of self-harm in England and problems faced by patients who self-harm. METHOD: Analysis of data from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England for 2001-2010 and local employment statistics for Oxford, Manchester and Derby, including interrupted time series analyses to estimate the effect of the recession on rates of self-harm. RESULTS: Rates of self-harm increased in both genders in Derby and in males in Manchester in 2008-2010, but not in either gender in Oxford, results which largely followed changes in general population unemployment. More patients who self-harm were unemployed in 2008-10 compared to before the recession. The proportion in receipt of sickness or disability allowances decreased. More patients of both genders had employment and financial problems in 2008-2010 and more females also had housing problems, changes which were also largely found in employed patients. LIMITATIONS: We have assumed that the recession began in 2008 and information on problems was only available for patients having a psychosocial assessment. CONCLUSIONS: Increased rates of self-harm were found in areas where there were greater rises in rates of unemployment. Work, financial and housing problems increased in people who self-harmed. Changes in welfare benefits may have contributed. DECLARATION OF INTEREST: None.

Variation by ethnic group in premature mortality risk following self-harm: a multicentre cohort study in England.

BACKGROUND: Incidence and risk factors for self-harm vary according to ethnicity. People who self-harm have been shown to have increased risk of premature death, but little is known about mortality following self-harm in ethnic minority groups. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of self-harm presentations to three English cities (Derby, Manchester, Oxford) between 2000 and 2010. We linked to a national mortality dataset to investigate premature death in South Asian and Black people in comparison with White people to the end of 2012. RESULTS: Ethnicity was known for 72% of the 28,512 study cohort members: 88% were White, 5% were South Asian, and 3% were Black. After adjusting for age, gender and area-level socioeconomic deprivation, the risk of all-cause mortality was lower in South Asian (hazard ratio [HR] 0.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42 - 0.62) and Black people (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.39 - 0.55) versus White people. Suicide risk was significantly lower in Black people (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.19 - 0.97) than in White people. Prevalence of risk factors for premature death, such as previous self-harm, psychiatric treatment or concurrent alcohol misuse, was lower in South Asian and Black people than in White people. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death following self-harm is lower in South Asian and Black people than White people in the UK, and they also have lower prevalence of risk factors for premature death. Awareness of both protective and risk factors might help to inform clinical decisions following assessment.

Hospital management of suicidal behaviour and subsequent mortality: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-poisoning and self-injury are associated with a high risk of suicide or death from any cause but the effect of routine aspects of hospital management on mortality risk is unknown. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study using data for adults who had self-harmed presenting to five emergency departments in the UK between 2000 and 2010. We assessed the relation between four aspects of management (psychosocial assessment, medical admission, psychiatric admission, referral for mental health follow-up) and death by suicide or any cause within 12 months of presentation. FINDINGS: Of 38 415 individuals presenting with self-harm, 261 (0·7%) died by suicide and 832 (2·2%) died from any cause within 12 months. Most aspects of management were associated with a higher mortality risk in unadjusted analyses. Psychiatric admission was associated with the highest risks for both suicide (hazard ratio 2·35, 95% CI 1·59-3·45) and all-cause mortality (2·35, 2·04-2·72). After adjustment for baseline variables, the hazard ratios were generally smaller, particularly for psychiatric admission. There were significant interactions by sex, age, and history of self-harm. INTERPRETATION: This was an observational study and so we cannot infer causation. However, our finding that clinical services seem to reserve the most intensive levels of treatment for patients at highest risk is reassuring. Aspects of routine management might be associated with a lower mortality risk but these effects vary by clinical subgroup. FUNDING: UK Department of Health.

Switching methods of self-harm at repeat episodes: Findings from a multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-poisoning and self-injury have widely differing incidences in hospitals and in the community, which has led to confusion about the concept of self-harm. Categorising self-harm simply by a method may be clinically misleading because many hospital-attending patients switch from one method of harm to another on subsequent episodes. The study set out to determine the frequency, pattern, determinants and characteristics of method-switching in self-harm episodes presenting to the general hospital. METHODS: The pattern of repeated self-harm was established from over 33,000 consecutive self-harm episodes in a multicentre English cohort, categorising self-harm methods as poisoning, cutting, other injury, and combined methods. RESULTS: Over an average of 30 months of follow-up, 23% of people repeated self-harm and one-third of them switched method, often rapidly, and especially where the person was male, younger, or had self-harmed previously. Self-poisoning was far less likely than other methods to lead on to switching. LIMITATIONS: Self-harm episodes that do not lead to hospital attendance are not included in these findings but people who self-harmed and went to hospital but were not admitted from the emergency department to the general hospital, or did not receive designated psychosocial assessment are included. People in the study were a mix of prevalent as well as incident cases. CONCLUSIONS: Method of self-harm is fluctuating and unpredictable. Clinicians should avoid false assumptions about people׳s risks or needs based simply on the method of harm.