Stochastic dynamics of a warmer Great Barrier Reef.

Pressure on natural communities from human activities continues to increase. Even unique ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), that until recently were considered near-pristine and well-protected, are showing signs of rapid degradation. We collated recent (1996-2006) spatiotemporal relationships between benthic community composition on the GBR and environmental variables (ocean temperature and local threats resulting from human activity). We built multivariate models of the effects of these variables on short-term dynamics, and developed an analytical approach to study their long-term consequences. We used this approach to study the effects of ocean warming under different levels of local threat. Observed short-term changes in benthic community structure (e.g., declining coral cover) were associated with ocean temperature (warming) and local threats. Our model projected that, in the long-term, coral cover of less than 10% was not implausible. With increasing temperature and/or local threats, corals were initially replaced by sponges, gorgonians, and other taxa, with an eventual moderately high probability of domination (> 50%) by macroalgae when temperature increase was greatest (e.g., 3.5 degrees C of warming). Our approach to modeling community dynamics, based on multivariate statistical models, enabled us to project how environmental change (and thus local and international policy decisions) will influence the future state of coral reefs. The same approach could be applied to other systems for which time series of ecological and environmental variables are available.

Intermediate fragmentation per se provides stable predator-prey metapopulation dynamics.

The extent to which a landscape is fragmented affects persistence of predator-prey dynamics. Increasing fragmentation concomitantly imposes conditions that stabilise and destabilise metapopulations. For the first time, we explicitly assessed the hypothesis that intermediate levels provide optimal conditions for stability. We examine four structural changes arising from increased fragmentation: increased fragment number; decreased fragment size; increased connectedness (corridors scaled to fragment); increased fragment heterogeneity (based on connectedness). Using the model predator-prey system (Didinium-Paramecium) we support our hypothesis, by examining replicated metapopulations dynamics at five fragmentation levels. Although both species became extinct without fragmentation, prey survived at low and high levels, and both survived at intermediate levels. By examining time to extinction, maximum abundances, and population asynchrony we conclude that fragmentation produces structural heterogeneity (independent of environmental heterogeneity), which influences stability. Our analysis suggests why some theoretical, field and microcosm studies present conflicting views of fragmentation effects on population persistence.

A Heterobimetallic Vanadium-Manganese Complex as a Model for the Structural Dynamics in Oxo-Bridged Metal Dimers.

The heterobimetallic complex 1, [LV(&mgr;-O)(&mgr;-OAc)(2)MnL] (where L = hydridotris(pyrazolyl)borate), has been synthesized and characterized. X-ray crystal structural analysis of 1 gave the following parameters: C(24)H(29)B(2)N(13)O(5)VMn, Cmc2(1), a = 13.364(2) Å, b = 17.383(3) Å, c = 14.132(3) Å, Z = 4, V = 3289.9(16) Å(3). An analysis of the structure, optical and resonance Raman spectroscopies, and magnetic measurements indicates that a V(IV)=O.Mn(II) valence formulation is the best description of the oxo-bridged core in 1, although other resonance forms must also contribute.