Sustainability of cover cropping practice with changing climate in Illinois.

Climate change could adversely impact the best management practices (BMPs) designed to build a sustainable agro-ecological environment. Cover cropping is a conservation practice capable of reducing nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) loadings by consuming water and nitrate from the soil. The objective of this study was to investigate how climate change would impact the proven water quality benefits of cereal rye as a winter cover crop (CC) over the climate divisions of Illinois using the DSSAT model. Moreover, this study explores the sustainability of the CC with the changing climate conditions by using five regional climate models (RCMs) projections of two warming scenarios-rcp45 (a medium emission scenario - radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2) and rcp85 (a high emission scenario - radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2)). The CC impact simulated in the warming scenarios for the near-term (2021-2040) and the far-term future (2041-2060) were compared with the baseline scenario (2001-2020). Our results conclude that the climate change may negatively impact [average of CC and no CC (NCC)] maize yield (-6.6%) while positively affecting soybean yield (17.6%) and CC biomass (73.0%) by the mid-century. Increased mineralization caused by rising temperature could increase the nitrate loss via tile flow (NLoss) and nitrate leached (NLeached) up to 26.3% and 7.6% on average by the mid-century in Illinois. Increasing CC biomass could reduce the NLoss more considerably in all the scenarios compared to the baselines. Nevertheless, the NLoss level in the CC treatment can increase from the near-term to far-term future and could get closer to the baseline levels in the NCC treatment. These results suggest that CC alone may not address nitrate loss goals via subsurface drainage (caused by increasing N mineralization) in future. Therefore, more robust and cost-effective BMPs are needed to aid the CC benefits in preventing nutrient loss from the agricultural fields.

Evaluation of long-term impact of cereal rye as a winter cover crop in Illinois.

Extensive tile drainage usage combined with excess nitrogen fertilization has triggered nutrient loss and water quality issues in Illinois, which over time endorsed the hypoxia formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Past research reported that the use of cereal rye as a winter cover crop (CC) could be beneficial in reducing nutrient loss and improving water quality. The extensive use of CC may aid in reducing the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term impact of cereal rye on soil water­nitrogen (N) dynamics and cash crops growth in the maize-soybean agroecosystem in the state of Illinois. A gridded simulation approach was developed using the DSSAT model for the CC impact analysis. The CC impacts were estimated for the last two decades (2001-2020) for two fertilization scheduling (FA-SD = Fall and side-dress N and SP-SD = Spring pre-plant and side-dress N) comparing between CC scenario (FA-SD-C/SP-SD-C) with no CC (NCC) scenario (FA-SD-N/SP-SD-N). Our results suggest that the nitrate-N loss (via tile flow) and leaching reduced by 30.6 % and 29.4 %, assuming extensive adaptation of cover crop. The tile flow and deep percolation decreased by 20.8 % and 5.3 %, respectively, due to cereal rye inclusion. The model performance was relatively poor in simulating the CC impact on soil water dynamics in the hilly topography of southern Illinois. Generalizing changes in the soil properties (due to cereal rye inclusion) from the field scale to whole state (regardless of soil type) could be one of the possible limitations in this research. Overall, these findings substantiated the long-term benefits of cereal rye as a winter cover crop and found the spring N fertilizer application reduced nitrate-N loss compared to fall N application. These results could be helpful in promoting the practice in the Upper Mississippi River basin.

Coping with the 2022 infant formula shortage.

To estimate the proportion of US consumers who sought formula during the shortage, what coping mechanisms they used, and public support for formula policies, we conducted an online survey of approximately 1,000 US consumers in August 2022 via Qualtrics. Approximately 35% of consumers attempted to purchase formula during the shortage, for their own household or on behalf of someone else, and the most common coping mechanisms were focused on searching different outlets (e.g., multiple stores, online). During the shortage public health agencies published recommendations for consumers - some were highly utilized (e.g., searching multiple stores), however, some were utilized less frequently (e.g., brand switching, breastfeeding). Additionally, despite warnings, some consumers still attempted to make their own formula. Understanding what coping mechanisms were and were not utilized, and their related risks has important implications for improving public health outreach in the future. Finally, we find considerable public support for regulation to ensure adequate supply of formula in the future, in particular regulation allowing imported formula and increased government involvement in the number of firms producing formula.

Assessing long-term impacts of cover crops on soil organic carbon in the central US Midwestern agroecosystems.

Cover crops have been reported as one of the most effective practices to increase soil organic carbon (SOC) for agroecosystems. Impacts of cover crops on SOC change vary depending on soil properties, climate, and management practices, but it remains unclear how these control factors affect SOC benefits from cover crops, as well as which management practices can maximize SOC benefits. To address these questions, we used an advanced process-based agroecosystem model, ecosys, to assess the impacts of winter cover cropping on SOC accumulation under different environmental and management conditions. We aimed to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent do cover crops benefit SOC accumulation, and how do SOC benefits from cover crops vary with different factors (i.e., initial soil properties, cover crop types, climate during the cover crop growth period, and cover crop planting and terminating time)? (2) How can we enhance SOC benefits from cover crops under different cover crop management options? Specifically, we first calibrated and validated the ecosys model at two long-term field experiment sites with SOC measurements in Illinois. We then applied the ecosys model to six cover crop field experiment sites spanning across Illinois to assess the impacts of different factors on SOC accumulation. Our modeling results revealed the following findings: (1) Growing cover crops can bring SOC benefits by 0.33 ± 0.06 MgC ha-1  year-1 in six cover crop field experiment sites across Illinois, and the SOC benefits are species specific to legume and non-legume cover crops. (2) Initial SOC stocks and clay contents had overall small influences on SOC benefits from cover crops. During the cover crop growth period (i.e., winter and spring in the US Midwest), high temperature increased SOC benefits from cover crops, while the impacts from larger precipitation on SOC benefits varied field by field. (3) The SOC benefits from cover crops can be maximized by optimizing cover crop management practices (e.g., selecting cover crop types and controlling cover crop growth period) for the US Midwestern maize-soybean rotation system. Finally, we discussed the economic and policy implications of adopting cover crops in the US Midwest, including that current economic incentives to grow cover crops may not be sufficient to cover costs. This study systematically assessed cover crop impacts for SOC change in the US Midwest context, while also demonstrating that the ecosys model, with rigorous validation using field experiment data, can be an effective tool to guide the adaptive management of cover crops and quantify SOC benefits from cover crops. The study thus provides practical tools and insights for practitioners and policy-makers to design cover crop related government agricultural policies and incentive programs for farmers and agri-food related industries.

Coronavirus Impacts on Midwestern Row-Crop Agriculture.

Impacts from the coronavirus pandemic have depressed market returns to corn and soybean farmers in the Midwest, extending pressures that have existed since 2013 and worsened by trade disputes with China. Without large ad hoc federal aid, income on Midwestern grain farms would have been quite low and the ongoing cash flow crunch much worse. Farmland prices have not adjusted downward, in part due to continuing ad hoc federal aid, but also because interest rates have been historically very low. The financial (solvency) position of Midwestern grain farms is surprisingly strong because of the strength in land values. However, the financial condition of Midwestern row-crop agriculture could deteriorate markedly if recent and large infusions of ad hoc federal aid dissipates or if interest rates rise sharply.