Five pillars for stakeholder analyses in sustainability transformations: The global case of phosphorus.

Phosphorus is a critical agricultural nutrient and a major pollutant in waterbodies due to inefficient use. In the form of rock phosphate it is a finite global commodity vulnerable to price shocks and sourcing challenges. Transforming toward sustainable phosphorus management involves local to global stakeholders. Conventional readings of stakeholders may not reflect system complexity leaving it difficult to see stakeholder roles in transformations. We attempt to remedy this issue with a novel stakeholder analysis method based on five qualitative pillars: stakeholder agency, system roles, power and influence, alignment to the problem, and transformational potential. We argue that our approach suits case studies of individual stakeholders, stakeholder groups, and organisations with relationships to sustainability challenges.

Towards resolving the phosphorus chaos created by food systems.

The chaotic distribution and dispersal of phosphorus (P) used in food systems (defined here as disorderly disruptions to the P cycle) is harming our environment beyond acceptable limits. An analysis of P stores and flows across Europe in 2005 showed that high fertiliser P inputs relative to productive outputs was driving low system P efficiency (38 % overall). Regional P imbalance (P surplus) and system P losses were highly correlated to total system P inputs and animal densities, causing unnecessary P accumulation in soils and rivers. Reducing regional P surpluses to zero increased system P efficiency (+ 16 %) and decreased total P losses by 35 %, but required a reduction in system P inputs of ca. 40 %, largely as fertiliser. We discuss transdisciplinary and transformative solutions that tackle the P chaos by collective stakeholder actions across the entire food value chain. Lowering system P demand and better regional governance of P resources appear necessary for more efficient and sustainable food systems.

Assessing national vulnerability to phosphorus scarcity to build food system resilience: The case of India.

The scarcity of phosphorus worldwide led researchers to develop indicators of national vulnerability to phosphorus scarcity, however this has not been applied at a national level so far. A systematic approach is described here to identify country-specific indicators of such vulnerability, in this case for India, based on literature and stakeholder engagement. The indicators are then aggregated to compute a phosphorus vulnerability index (PVI) to help policymakers formulate strategies towards building national resilience towards scarcity of phosphorus. For India, the key indicators include import dependence, soil fertility, purchasing power of farmers, and their access to credit. A PVI of 37.29 puts India in the 'highly vulnerable' category. Existing schemes targeted for agricultural sector in India are assessed for their ability to manage phosphorus vulnerability and for building resilience. Other developing countries with similar challenges can easily replicate the approach.

Transforming phosphorus use on the island of Ireland: A model for a sustainable system.

Phosphorus is an essential part of the world food web and a non-substitutable nutrient in all biological systems. Losses of phosphorus occur along the food-supply chain and cause environmental degradation and eutrophication. A key global challenge is to meet rising worldwide food demand while protecting water and environmental quality, and seeking to manage uncertainty around potential future phosphorus price or supply shocks. This paper presents a stakeholder-generated conceptual model of potential transformative change for implementing phosphorus sustainability on the island of Ireland via an 'All-Island Phosphorus Sustainability' workshop. Key transition pathways identified by stakeholders included: incentivising phosphorus recovery, developing collaborative networks to facilitate change, developing markets and value chains for recovered products; implementing data-informed practices on-farm to prevent losses and increase efficiencies, and harmonisation of technologies with end-user needs. A comparable model was previously produced for the North American region. We describe consensus and differences around key priorities between the two regions' conceptual models, and assess how the model produced for the island of Ireland can effect system-wide change and policy moving forward. Many of the transitional pathways and future aspirations presented in both models resonate globally and are highly pertinent to other jurisdictions.

Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in crop and livestock systems.

Potential Impact of Dietary Choices on Phosphorus Recycling and Global Phosphorus Footprints: The Case of the Average Australian City.

Changes in human diets, population increases, farming practices, and globalized food chains have led to dramatic increases in the demand for phosphorus fertilizers. Long-term food security and water quality are, however, threatened by such increased phosphorus consumption, because the world's main source, phosphate rock, is an increasingly scarce resource. At the same time, losses of phosphorus from farms and cities have caused widespread water pollution. As one of the major factors contributing to increased phosphorus demand, dietary choices can play a key role in changing our resource consumption pathway. Importantly, the effects of dietary choices on phosphorus management are twofold: First, dietary choices affect a person or region's "phosphorus footprint" - the magnitude of mined phosphate required to meet food demand. Second, dietary choices affect the magnitude of phosphorus content in human excreta and hence the recycling- and pollution-potential of phosphorus in sanitation systems. When considering options and impacts of interventions at the city scale (e.g., potential for recycling), dietary changes may be undervalued as a solution toward phosphorus sustainability. For example, in an average Australian city, a vegetable-based diet could marginally increase phosphorus in human excreta (an 8% increase). However, such a shift could simultaneously dramatically decrease the mined phosphate required to meet the city resident's annual food demand by 72%. Taking a multi-scalar perspective is therefore key to fully exploring dietary choices as one of the tools for sustainable phosphorus management.

The phosphorus mass balance: identifying 'hotspots' in the food system as a roadmap to phosphorus security.

Phosphorus is a critical element on which all life depends. Global crop production depends on fertilisers derived from phosphate rock to maintain high crop yields. Population increase, changing dietary preferences towards more meat and dairy products, and the continuing intensification of global agriculture supporting this expansion will place increasing pressure on an uncertain, but finite supply of high-quality phosphate rock. Growing concern about phosphorus scarcity and security, coupled with the environmental impact of phosphorus pollution, has encouraged an increase in research exploring how phosphorus is used and lost in the food system-from mine to field to fork. An assessment of recent phosphorus flows analyses at different geographical scales identifies the key phosphorus 'hotspots', for example within the mining, agriculture or food processing sectors, where efficiency and reuse can be substantially improved through biotechnological approaches coupled with policy changes.

Global phosphorus scarcity: identifying synergies for a sustainable future.

Global food production is dependent on constant inputs of phosphorus. In the current system this phosphorus is not predominantly derived from organic recycled waste, but to a large degree from phosphate-rock based mineral fertilisers. However, phosphate rock is a finite resource that cannot be manufactured. Our dependency therefore needs to be addressed from a sustainability perspective in order to ensure global food supplies for a growing global population. The situation is made more urgent by predictions that, for example, the consumption of resource intensive foods and the demand for biomass energy will increase. The scientific and societal debate has so far been focussed on the exact timing of peak phosphorus and on when the total depletion of the global reserves will occur. Even though the timing of these events is important, all dimensions of phosphorus scarcity need to be addressed in a manner which acknowledges linkages to other sustainable development challenges and which takes into consideration the synergies between different sustainability measures. Many sustainable phosphorus measures have positive impacts on other challenges; for example, shifting global diets to more plant-based foods would not only reduce global phosphorus consumption, but also reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reduce nitrogen fertiliser demand and reduce water consumption.