Standardising the measurement of e-cigarette taxes in the USA, 2010-2020.

INTRODUCTION: E-cigarette taxes have been enacted by 30 states through April 2020. E-cigarette tax schemas vary, in contrast to cigarette taxes in the USA that are levied almost exclusively as excise taxes per pack. Some states use excise taxes on liquid and containers, others ad valorem taxes on wholesale prices and others sales taxes. It is therefore difficult to understand the relative magnitudes of these e-cigarette taxes and the overall e-cigarette tax size relative to the cigarette tax size. OBJECTIVE: To create and publish a database of state and local quarterly e-cigarette taxes from 2010 to 2020, standardised as the rate per millilitre of fluid. METHODS: Using Universal Product Code-level e-cigarette sales from the NielsenIQ Retail Scanner Data along with e-cigarette product characteristics collected from internet searches and visits to e-cigarette retailers, we develop a method to standardise e-cigarette taxes as an equivalent average excise tax rate measured per millilitre of fluid. RESULTS: In 2020, the average American resided in a location with $3.08 in cigarette taxes and $0.34 in e-cigarette taxes (assuming 1 pack=0.7 fluid mL). CONCLUSIONS: The public availability of this state and local standardised e-cigarette tax data will allow tobacco control researchers to study the relationship between e-cigarette taxes and tobacco and related outcomes more effectively.

The effects of e-cigarette taxes on e-cigarette prices and tobacco product sales: Evidence from retail panel data.

We estimate the effect of e-cigarette tax rates on e-cigarette prices, e-cigarette sales, and sales of other tobacco products using NielsenIQ Retail Scanner data from 2013 to 2019. We find that 90% of e-cigarette taxes are passed on to consumer retail prices. We then estimate reduced form and instrumental variables regressions to examine the effects of e-cigarette and cigarette taxes and prices on sales. We calculate an e-cigarette own-price elasticity of -2.2 and particularly large elasticity of demand for flavored e-cigarettes. Further, we document a cigarette own-price elasticity of -0.4 and positive cross-price elasticities of demand between e-cigarettes and cigarettes, suggesting economic substitution.

The relationship between in-person voting and COVID-19: Evidence from the Wisconsin primary.

On April 7, 2020, Wisconsin held its presidential primary election, and news reports showed long lines of voters due to fewer polling locations. We use county-level variation in voting patterns and weekly county-level COVID test data to examine whether in-person voting increased COVID-19 cases. We find a statistically significant association between in-person voting density and the spread of COVID-19 2-3 weeks after the election. In our main results, a 10% increase in in-person voters per polling location is associated with an 18.4% increase in the COVID-19 positive test rate 2-3 weeks later.

The relationship of opioid prescriptions and the educational performance of children.

One of the more salient aspects of the opioid crisis in America has been the disparate impact it has had on communities. This paper considers the possibility that opioid abuse might have negative spillovers onto student performance in schools within the communities most affected. We use administrative data on individual children's test scores (grades 3 through 8) in South Carolina from the 2005-06 to 2016-17 academic years. These data are then linked to county-level changes in opioid prescriptions rates. Findings show that an increase in the opioid prescription rate in a county is associated with a statistically significant reduction in white student test scores, but no such decline was found among non-white students. This relationship is robust to controls for changing county-level economic conditions, time-varying controls for student-level poverty, county characteristics, and county time trends. Among white students, the association is strongest among rural students in households that are not receiving SNAP or TANF benefits. Given the importance of educational attainment, this reduction in test scores associated with high rates of opioid prescriptions may indicate that there will be long-lasting spillover effects of the opioid crisis.

Hunger pains? SNAP timing and emergency room visits.

This project uses quasi-random assignment of SNAP receipt dates linked to Medicaid healthcare records to examine whether ER use is affected by the timing of benefits. We find an increase in ER usage at the end of the benefit month, but only among older recipients. The estimated effect is much larger when the end of the benefit cycle coincides with the end of the calendar month, which is when other transfer payments are also depleted. This suggests that within this older group, increased food insecurity leads to increased ER utilization. Further, we find that the share of ER visitors that received SNAP benefits on the day of their ER visit is 3.1% lower than in the SNAP population. This is consistent with benefit receipt altering household behaviors and routines (notably, we observe, by increasing shopping), which may crowd out healthcare utilization. This particular effect is present across all age groups, although the magnitude is smallest for children.

Duluth versus cognitive behavioral therapy: A natural field experiment on intimate partner violence diversion programs.

We used data from a 3-year natural field experiment to study rates of recidivism in 2 types of diversion programs designed to reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) among heterosexual partners. In one program (Duluth), efforts are focused on protecting women from male aggression through a psychoeducational program, regardless of the offender's sex. In the other program (cognitive behavioral therapy [CBT]), efforts are focused on improving intrahousehold behaviors and communication skills through counseling. Our experimental results found that the IPV recidivism rate, measured as reconvictions for IPV, was 11 percentage points higher for offenders randomly assigned to a Duluth treatment program (14 percentage points higher among males). This outcome is statistically and practically significant, suggesting that the Duluth approach corresponds to meaningfully higher recidivism rates compared with CBT. In an attempt to explain the observed difference of IPV recidivism between these programs, we discuss theories for plausible psychological, sociological, psychophysiological, and neurological mechanisms responsible for this outcome. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Impacts of the ACA Medicaid expansion on health behaviors: Evidence from household panel data.

A motivation for increasing health insurance coverage is to improve health outcomes for impacted populations. However, health insurance coverage may alternatively increase risky health behaviors due to ex ante moral hazard, and past research on this issue has led to mixed conclusions. This paper uses a panel of household purchases to estimate the effects of the recent state-level Medicaid expansions resulting from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on consumption goods that present adverse health risks. We utilize within-household variation to identify whether increases in Medicaid availability impacted household purchase patterns of alcohol, nicotine-related, snack food, and carbonated beverage products. Overall, we find little evidence that the ACA Medicaid expansion led to ex ante moral hazard across any of these products, but we find compelling evidence that the Medicaid expansions reduced cigarette consumption and increased smoking cessation product use among the Medicaid-eligible population.

The relationship between cigarettes and electronic cigarettes: Evidence from household panel data.

We use the Nielsen Consumer Panel to investigate the impact of tobacco control policies on purchases of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes), cigarettes, and smoking cessation products. We measure product quantity, product type, nicotine content, and liquid volume of e-cigarettes, and product quantity and nicotine content of cigarettes. Higher cigarette excise taxes decrease both cigarette and e-cigarette purchases, suggesting that cigarettes and e-cigarettes are complements, and higher cigarette excise taxes reduce the aggregate amount of nicotine purchased from cigarettes and e-cigarettes. Cigarette smoke-free air laws decrease cigarette purchases, while e-cigarette smoke-free air laws do not affect cigarette or e-cigarette purchases.

Does the Timing of Food Stamp Distribution Matter? A Panel-Data Analysis of Monthly Purchasing Patterns of US Households.

In this paper, we examine the relationship between the timing of food stamp receipt and purchasing patterns. We combine data on state distribution dates of food stamps with scanner data on a panel of households purchases tracked between 2004 and 2011. We find that purchases of a variety of goods are meaningfully higher on receipt days, consistent with previous work that suggests that recipients are very impatient. Additionally, and importantly, estimates indicate that when food stamp receipt days fall on weekends, total monthly purchases within the same households are affected. In particular, monthly purchases of beer are higher when food stamps are distributed on a weekend rather than in months where benefits are distributed on weekdays. For these households, total beer purchases are between 4 and 5% higher in those months. Among households ineligible for food stamps, no effect is identified. These results demonstrate that the 'day-of-the-week' of SNAP treatment may have important impacts on household purchase habits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Dow is Killing Me: Risky Health Behaviors and the Stock Market.

We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices.

Alcohol-impaired motor vehicle crash risk and the location of alcohol purchase.

Motor vehicle crashes involving alcohol impairment are among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in the U.S. In this study, we examine how the probability of driving after a binge-drinking episode varies with the location of consumption and type of alcohol consumed. We also investigate the relationship between the location of alcohol purchase and the number of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. Using multiple datasets that are representative of the U.S. between 2003 and 2009, we find that binge-drinkers are significantly more likely to drive after consuming alcohol at establishments that sell alcohol for on-premises consumption, e.g., from bars or restaurants, particularly after drinking beer. Further, per capita sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption are unrelated to the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. When disaggregating alcohol types, per capita sales of beer for off-premises consumption are negatively associated with the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. In contrast, total per capita sales of alcohol from all establishments (on- and off-premises) are positively related to the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes and the magnitude of this relationship is strongest for beer sales. Thus, policies that shift consumption away from bars and restaurants could lead to a decline in the number of motor vehicle crashes.

Fast food prices, obesity, and the minimum wage.

Recent proposals argue that a fast food tax may be an effective policy lever for reducing population weight. Although there is growing evidence for a negative association between fast food prices and weight among adolescents, less is known about adults. That any measured relationship to date is causal is unclear because there has been no attempt to separate variation in prices on the demand side from that on the supply side. We argue that the minimum wage is an exogenous source of variation in fast food prices, conditional on income and employment. In two-stage least-squares analyses, we find little evidence that fast food price changes affect adult BMI or obesity prevalence. Results are robust to including controls for area and time fixed effects, area time trends, demographic characteristics, substitute prices, numbers of establishments and employment in related industries, and other potentially related factors.

The impact of casinos on fatal alcohol-related traffic accidents in the United States.

Casinos have been introduced throughout the U.S. to spur economic development and generate tax revenues. Yet, casinos may also be associated with a variety of social ills. One issue that has not been empirically tested in the literature is whether there is a link between casino expansion and alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents. We suspect a link may exist since casinos often serve alcohol to their patrons and, by their dispersed nature, could impact driving distances after drinking. Using the variation in the timing and location of casino openings over a 10-year period, we isolate the impact of casino introduction on alcohol-related fatal accidents. Results indicate that there is a strong link between the presence of a casino in a county and the number of alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents. However, this relationship is negatively related to the local-area (county) population. Results prove durable, as we subject them to robustness checks.