Horizon scanning of potential threats to high-Arctic biodiversity, human health and the economy from marine invasive alien species: A Svalbard case study.

The high Arctic is considered a pristine environment compared with many other regions in the northern hemisphere. It is becoming increasingly vulnerable to invasion by invasive alien species (IAS), however, as climate change leads to rapid loss of sea ice, changes in ocean temperature and salinity, and enhanced human activities. These changes are likely to increase the incidence of arrival and the potential for establishment of IAS in the region. To predict the impact of IAS, a group of experts in taxonomy, invasion biology and Arctic ecology carried out a horizon scanning exercise using the Svalbard archipelago as a case study, to identify the species that present the highest risk to biodiversity, human health and the economy within the next 10 years. A total of 114 species, currently absent from Svalbard, recorded once and/or identified only from environmental DNA samples, were initially identified as relevant for review. Seven species were found to present a high invasion risk and to potentially cause a significant negative impact on biodiversity and five species had the potential to have an economic impact on Svalbard. Decapod crabs, ascidians and barnacles dominated the list of highest risk marine IAS. Potential pathways of invasion were also researched, the most common were found associated with vessel traffic. We recommend (i) use of this approach as a key tool within the application of biosecurity measures in the wider high Arctic, (ii) the addition of this tool to early warning systems for strengthening existing surveillance measures; and (iii) that this approach is used to identify high-risk terrestrial and freshwater IAS to understand the overall threat facing the high Arctic. Without the application of biosecurity measures, including horizon scanning, there is a greater risk that marine IAS invasions will increase, leading to unforeseen changes in the environment and economy of the high Arctic.

Can a key boreal Calanus copepod species now complete its life-cycle in the Arctic? Evidence and implications for Arctic food-webs.

The changing Arctic environment is affecting zooplankton that support its abundant wildlife. We examined how these changes are influencing a key zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus, principally found in the North Atlantic but expatriated to the Arctic. Close to the ice-edge in the Fram Strait, we identified areas that, since the 1980s, are increasingly favourable to C. finmarchicus. Field-sampling revealed part of the population there to be capable of amassing enough reserves to overwinter. Early developmental stages were also present in early summer, suggesting successful local recruitment. This extension to suitable C. finmarchicus habitat is most likely facilitated by the long-term retreat of the ice-edge, allowing phytoplankton to bloom earlier and for longer and through higher temperatures increasing copepod developmental rates. The increased capacity for this species to complete its life-cycle and prosper in the Fram Strait can change community structure, with large consequences to regional food-webs.

A marine zooplankton community vertically structured by light across diel to interannual timescales.

The predation risk of many aquatic taxa is dominated by visually searching predators, commonly a function of ambient light. Several studies propose that changes in visual predation will become a major climate-change impact on polar marine ecosystems. The High Arctic experiences extreme seasonality in the light environment, from 24 h light to 24 h darkness, and therefore provides a natural laboratory for studying light and predation risk over diel to seasonal timescales. Here, we show that zooplankton (observed using acoustics) in an Arctic fjord position themselves vertically in relation to light. A single isolume (depth-varying line of constant light intensity, the value of which is set at the lower limit of photobehaviour reponses of Calanus spp. and krill) forms a ceiling on zooplankton distribution. The vertical distribution is structured by light across timescales, from the deepening of zooplankton populations at midday as the sun rises in spring, to the depth to which zooplankton ascend to feed during diel vertical migration. These results suggest that zooplankton might already follow a foraging strategy that will keep visual predation risk roughly constant under changing light conditions, such as those caused by the reduction of sea ice, but likely with energetic costs such as lost feeding opportunities as a result of altered habitat use.