Assessing dynamic violence risk: Common language risk levels and recidivism rates for the Violence Risk Scale.

The present study features the development of new risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale (VRS), a violence risk assessment and treatment planning tool. We employed a combined North American multisite sample (k = 6, N = 1,338) of adult mostly male offenders, many with violent criminal histories, from correctional or forensic mental health settings that had complete VRS scores from archival or field ratings and outcome data from police records (N = 1,100). There were two key objectives: (a) to identify the rates of violent recidivism associated with VRS scores and (b) to generate updated evidence-based VRS violence risk categories with external validation. To achieve the first objective, logistic regression was applied using VRS pretreatment and change scores on treated samples with a minimum 5-year follow-up (k = 5, N = 472) to model 2-, 3-, and 5-year violent and general recidivism estimates, with the resulting logistic regression algorithms retained to generate a VRS recidivism rates calculator. To achieve the second objective, the Council of State Governments' guidelines were applied to generate five risk levels using the common language framework using percentiles, risk ratios (from Cox regression), and absolute violent and general recidivism estimates (from logistic regression). Construct validity of the five risk levels was examined through group comparisons on measures of risk, need, protection, and psychopathy obtained from the constituent samples. VRS applications to enhance risk communication, treatment planning, and violence prevention in light of the updated recidivism estimates and risk categories are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessing protective factors in treated violent offenders: Associations with recidivism reduction and positive community outcomes.

The present study examined the assessment of protective factors and their linkages to treatment change, institutional and community recidivism, and positive community outcomes in a high-risk treated sample of violent male offenders. Participants included 178 federally incarcerated adult male violent offenders who participated in a high-intensity violence reduction program and were followed up 10 years postrelease in the community. A collection of risk- and protective-factor measures were rated archivally at multiple time points-the Violence Risk Scale (Wong & Gordon, 1999-2003), Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (Version 2; Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997), Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF; De Vogel, De Ruiter, Bouman, & De Vries Robbé, 2009), and Protective Factors (PF) List. Measures of community and institutional recidivism and positive community outcomes were coded. Large correlations were observed between risk and protection scores, suggesting shared risk variance. The SAPROF and PF List each predicted decreased community recidivism and, to a lesser degree, decreased institutional recidivism. Positive changes in protective factors were significantly associated with reductions in violent and general community recidivism and serious institutional misconducts after controlling for baseline scores. In addition, risk and protection scores significantly predicted most positive community outcomes; improvements in protective factors were linked to an increase in positive outcomes. Protective factors are more than the inverse of risk factors and might have important benefits in violence risk assessment and treatment planning when other positive community outcomes are considered. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Assessing Dynamic Violence Risk in a High-Risk Treated Sample of Violent Offenders.

The present study featured an investigation of the predictive properties of risk and change scores of two violence risk assessment and treatment planning tools-the Violence Risk Scale (VRS) and the Historical, Clinical, Risk-20, Version 2 (HCR-20)-in sample of 178 treated adult male violent offenders who attended a high-intensity violence reduction program. The cases were rated on the VRS and HCR-20 using archival information sources and followed up nearly 10 years postrelease. Associations of HCR-20 and VRS risk and change scores with postprogram institutional and community recidivism were examined. VRS and HCR-20 scores converged in conceptually meaningful ways, supporting the construct validity of the tools for violence risk. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated moderate- to high-predictive accuracy of VRS and HCR-20 scores for violent and general community recidivism, but weaker accuracy for postprogram institutional recidivism. Cox regression survival analyses demonstrated that positive pretreatment and posttreatment changes, as assessed via the HCR-20 and VRS, were each significantly associated with reductions in violent and general community recidivism, as well as serious institutional misconducts, after controlling for baseline pretreatment score. Implications for use of the HCR-20 and VRS for dynamic violence risk assessment and management are discussed.