Consensus building on definitions and types of child maltreatment to improve recording and surveillance in Europe: protocol for a multi-sectoral, European, electronic Delphi study.

INTRODUCTION: Child maltreatment (CM) is a complex global public health issue with potentially devastating effects on individuals' physical and mental health and well-being throughout the life course. A lack of uniform definitions hinders attempts to identify, measure, respond to, and prevent CM. The aim of this electronic Delphi (e-Delphi) study is to build consensus on definitions and types of CM for use in surveillance and multi-sectoral research in the 34 countries in the Euro-CAN (Multi-Sectoral Responses to Child Abuse and Neglect in Europe) project (COST Action CA19106). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The e-Delphi study will consist of a maximum of three rounds conducted using an online data collection platform. A multi-disciplinary expert panel consisting of researchers, child protection professionals (health and social care), police, legal professionals and adult survivors of CM will be purposefully recruited. We will approach approximately 100 experts, with between 50 and 60 of these anticipated to take part. Participants will rate their agreement with a range of statements relating to operational definitions and types of CM, and free-text comments on each of the statements to give further detail about their responses and areas of uncertainty. Consensus has been defined a priori as ≥70% of the panel agreeing or disagreeing with the statement after the final round. The responses to the open-ended questions will be analysed using a 'codebook' approach to thematic analysis, and used to refine the statements between rounds where no consensus is reached. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted from the Cardiff University School of Medicine ethics committee (reference number SMREC22/96). Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at workshops (including for the participants) and international academic conferences. The Euro-CAN network will also be used to disseminate the results, with results briefings and presentations to key public health and other relevant organisations in the field.

Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination in school staff, students and their household members from 2020 to 2022 in Wales, UK: an electronic cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection trends, risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination uptake among school staff, students and their household members in Wales, UK. DESIGN: Seven-day average of SARS-CoV-2 infections and polymerase chain reaction tests per 1000 people daily, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 vaccination uptake and multi-level Poisson models with time-varying covariates. SETTING: National electronic cohort between September 2020 and May 2022 when several variants were predominant in the UK (Alpha, Delta and Omicron). PARTICIPANTS: School students aged 4 to 10/11 years (primary school and younger middle school, n = 238,163), and 11 to 15/16 years (secondary school and older middle school, n = 182,775), school staff in Wales (n = 47,963) and the household members of students and staff (n = 697,659). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination uptake. RESULTS: School students had a sustained period of high infection rates compared with household members after August 2021. Primary schedule vaccination uptake was highest among staff (96.3%) but lower for household members (72.2%), secondary and older middle school students (59.8%), and primary and younger middle school students (3.3%). Multi-level Poisson models showed that vaccination was associated with a lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The Delta variant posed a greater infection risk for students than the Alpha variant. However, Omicron was a larger risk for staff and household members. CONCLUSIONS: Public health bodies should be informed of the protection COVID-19 vaccines afford, with more research being required for younger populations. Furthermore, schools require additional support in managing new, highly transmissible variants. Further research should examine the mechanisms between child deprivation and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of clinically extremely vulnerable children and children living with clinically extremely vulnerable people in Wales: a data linkage study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether clinically extremely vulnerable (CEV) children or children living with a CEV person in Wales were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression in primary or secondary care during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with children in the general population and to compare patterns of anxiety and depression during the pandemic (23 March 2020-31 January 2021, referred to as 2020/2021) and before the pandemic (23 March 2019-31 January 2020, referred to as 2019/2020), between CEV children and the general population. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional cohort study using anonymised, linked, routinely collected health and administrative data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. CEV individuals were identified using the COVID-19 shielded patient list. SETTING: Primary and secondary healthcare settings covering 80% of the population of Wales. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 2-17 in Wales: CEV (3769); living with a CEV person (20 033); or neither (415 009). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: First record of anxiety or depression in primary or secondary healthcare in 2019/2020 and 2020/2021, identified using Read and International Classification of Diseases V.10 codes. RESULTS: A Cox regression model adjusted for demographics and history of anxiety or depression revealed that only CEV children were at greater risk of presenting with anxiety or depression during the pandemic compared with the general population (HR=2.27, 95% CI=1.94 to 2.66, p<0.001). Compared with the general population, the risk among CEV children was higher in 2020/2021 (risk ratio 3.04) compared with 2019/2020 (risk ratio 1.90). In 2020/2021, the period prevalence of anxiety or depression increased slightly among CEV children, but declined among the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the period prevalence of recorded anxiety or depression in healthcare between CEV children and the general population were largely driven by a reduction in presentations to healthcare services by children in the general population during the pandemic.

Risk Factors Associated With Primary Care-Reported Domestic Violence for Women Involved in Family Law Care Proceedings: Data Linkage Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Domestic violence and abuse (DVA) has a detrimental impact on the health and well-being of children and families but is commonly underreported, with an estimated prevalence of 5.5% in England and Wales in 2020. DVA is more common in groups considered vulnerable, including those involved in public law family court proceedings; however, there is a lack of evidence regarding risk factors for DVA among those involved in the family justice system. OBJECTIVE: This study examines risk factors for DVA within a cohort of mothers involved in public law family court proceedings in Wales and a matched general population comparison group. METHODS: We linked family justice data from the Children and Family Court Advisory and Support Service (Cafcass Cymru [Wales]) to demographic and electronic health records within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. We constructed 2 study cohorts: mothers involved in public law family court proceedings (2011-2019) and a general population group of mothers not involved in public law family court proceedings, matched on key demographics (age and deprivation). We used published clinical codes to identify mothers with exposure to DVA documented in their primary care records and who therefore reported DVA to their general practitioner. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to examine risk factors for primary care-recorded DVA. RESULTS: Mothers involved in public law family court proceedings were 8 times more likely to have had exposure to DVA documented in their primary care records than the general population group (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 8.0, 95% CI 6.6-9.7). Within the cohort of mothers involved in public law family court proceedings, risk factors for DVA with the greatest effect sizes included living in sparsely populated areas (AOR 3.9, 95% CI 2.8-5.5), assault-related emergency department attendances (AOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.5-3.1), and mental health conditions (AOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2). An 8-fold increased risk of DVA emphasizes increased vulnerabilities for individuals involved in public law family court proceedings. CONCLUSIONS: Previously reported DVA risk factors do not necessarily apply to this group of women. The additional risk factors identified in this study could be considered for inclusion in national guidelines. The evidence that living in sparsely populated areas and assault-related emergency department attendances are associated with increased risk of DVA could be used to inform policy and practice interventions targeting prevention as well as tailored support services for those with exposure to DVA. However, further work should also explore other sources of DVA, such as that recorded in secondary health care, family, and criminal justice records, to understand the true scale of the problem.

What proportion of clinical prediction models make it to clinical practice? Protocol for a two-track follow-up study of prediction model development publications.

INTRODUCTION: It is known that only a limited proportion of developed clinical prediction models (CPMs) are implemented and/or used in clinical practice. This may result in a large amount of research waste, even when considering that some CPMs may demonstrate poor performance. Cross-sectional estimates of the numbers of CPMs that have been developed, validated, evaluated for impact or utilized in practice, have been made in specific medical fields, but studies across multiple fields and studies following up the fate of CPMs are lacking. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We have conducted a systematic search for prediction model studies published between January 1995 and December 2020 using the Pubmed and Embase databases, applying a validated search strategy. Taking random samples for every calendar year, abstracts and articles were screened until a target of 100 CPM development studies were identified. Next, we will perform a forward citation search of the resulting CPM development article cohort to identify articles on external validation, impact assessment or implementation of those CPMs. We will also invite the authors of the development studies to complete an online survey to track implementation and clinical utilization of the CPMs.We will conduct a descriptive synthesis of the included studies, using data from the forward citation search and online survey to quantify the proportion of developed models that are validated, assessed for their impact, implemented and/or used in patient care. We will conduct time-to-event analysis using Kaplan-Meier plots. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No patient data are involved in the research. Most information will be extracted from published articles. We request written informed consent from the survey respondents. Results will be disseminated through publication in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at international conferences. OSF REGISTRATION: (https://osf.io/nj8s9).

Current issues and challenges in the definition and operationalization of child maltreatment: A scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Studies show considerable variability in the definitions and operationalization of child maltreatment (CM), which limits research, policy formation, surveillance, and cross-country and cross-sector comparisons. OBJECTIVE: To review the recent literature (2011-2021) to understand current issues and challenges in defining CM, to assist in the planning, testing and implementing of CM conceptualizations. METHODS: We searched eight international databases. Articles were included if the substantive content was related to issues, challenges, and debates in defining CM, and the article was an original study, review, commentary, report, or guideline. The review followed methodological guidance for the conduct of scoping reviews and was reported in accordance with the PRISMA-ScR checklist. Four experts in CM conducted a thematic analysis to summarize findings. Methodological rigor of the included studies was not formally assessed. RESULTS: We identified 7372 potentially relevant articles; 55 full-text studies were assessed for eligibility, 25 satisfied the inclusion criteria. We identified three themes: 1) strategies to define CM, including the integration of child and victim perspectives; 2) difficulties in defining specific CM types; and 3) real-world implications for research, prevention and policy. CONCLUSIONS: Despite longstanding concerns, challenges regarding the definitions of CM persist. A small minority of studies have tested and implemented CM definitions and operationalizations in practice. The findings will inform international multi-sectoral processes to develop uniform definitions of CM, for example by highlighting the need to acknowledge challenges in defining some CM types and emphasizing the importance of considering the perspectives of children and CM survivors.

Population birth outcomes in 2020 and experiences of expectant mothers during the COVID-19 pandemic: A 'born in Wales' mixed methods study using routine data.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy can be a stressful time and the COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of life. This study aims to investigate the pandemic impact on pregnancy experience, rates of primary childhood immunisations and the differences in birth outcomes in during 2020 to those of previous years. METHODS: Self-reported pregnancy experience: 215 expectant mothers (aged 16+) in Wales completed an online survey about their experiences of pregnancy during the pandemic. The qualitative survey data was analysed using codebook thematic analysis. Population-level birth outcomes in Wales: Stillbirths, prematurity, birth weight and Caesarean section births before (2016-2019) and during (2020) the pandemic were compared using anonymised individual-level, population-scale routine data held in the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Uptake of the first three scheduled primary childhood immunisations were compared between 2019 and 2020. FINDINGS: The pandemic had a negative impact on the mental health of 71% of survey respondents, who reported anxiety, stress and loneliness; this was associated with attending scans without their partner, giving birth alone, and minimal contact with midwives. There was no significant difference in annual outcomes including gestation and birth weight, stillbirths, and Caesarean sections for infants born in 2020 compared to 2016-2019. There was an increase in late term births (≥42 weeks gestation) during the first lockdown (OR: 1.28, p = 0.019) and a decrease in moderate to late preterm births (32-36 weeks gestation) during the second lockdown (OR: 0.74, p = 0.001). Fewer babies were born in 2020 (N = 29,031) compared to 2016-2019 (average N = 32,582). All babies received their immunisations in 2020, but there were minor delays in the timings of immunisations. Those due at 8-weeks were 8% less likely to be on time (within 28-days) and at 16-weeks, they were 19% less likely to be on time. INTERPRETATION: Whilst the pandemic had a negative impact on mothers' experiences of pregnancy. Population-level data suggests that this did not translate to adverse birth outcomes for babies born during the pandemic.

COVID-19 mitigation measures in primary schools and association with infection and school staff wellbeing: An observational survey linked with routine data in Wales, UK.

INTRODUCTION: School-based COVID-19 mitigation strategies have greatly impacted the primary school day (children aged 3-11) including: wearing face coverings, two metre distancing, no mixing of children, and no breakfast clubs or extra-curricular activities. This study examines these mitigation measures and association with COVID-19 infection, respiratory infection, and school staff wellbeing between October to December 2020 in Wales, UK. METHODS: A school staff survey captured self-reported COVID-19 mitigation measures in the school, participant anxiety and depression, and open-text responses regarding experiences of teaching and implementing measures. These survey responses were linked to national-scale COVID-19 test results data to examine association of measures in the school and the likelihood of a positive (staff or pupil) COVID-19 case in the school (clustered by school, adjusted for school size and free school meals using logistic regression). Linkage was conducted through the SAIL (Secure Anonymised Information Linkage) Databank. RESULTS: Responses were obtained from 353 participants from 59 primary schools within 15 of 22 local authorities. Having more direct non-household contacts was associated with a higher likelihood of COVID-19 positive case in the school (1-5 contacts compared to none, OR 2.89 (1.01, 8.31)) and a trend to more self-reported cold symptoms. Staff face covering was not associated with a lower odds of school COVID-19 cases (mask vs. no covering OR 2.82 (1.11, 7.14)) and was associated with higher self-reported cold symptoms. School staff reported the impacts of wearing face coverings on teaching, including having to stand closer to pupils and raise their voices to be heard. 67.1% were not able to implement two metre social distancing from pupils. We did not find evidence that maintaining a two metre distance was associated with lower rates of COVID-19 in the school. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing, adhering to and evaluating COVID-19 mitigation guidelines is challenging in primary school settings. Our findings suggest that reducing non-household direct contacts lowers infection rates. There was no evidence that face coverings, two metre social distancing or stopping children mixing was associated with lower odds of COVID-19 or cold infection rates in the school. Primary school staff found teaching challenging during COVID-19 restrictions, especially for younger learners and those with additional learning needs.

Pre-COVID-19 pandemic health-related behaviours in children (2018-2020) and association with being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (2020-2021): a retrospective cohort study using survey data linked with routine health data in Wales, UK.

OBJECTIVES: Examine if pre-COVID-19 pandemic (prior March 2020) health-related behaviours during primary school are associated with (1) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and (2) testing positive between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2021. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using an online cohort survey (January 2018 to February 2020) linked with routine PCR SARS-CoV-2 test results. SETTING: Children attending primary schools in Wales (2018-2020), UK, who were part of the Health and Attainment of Pupils in a Primary Education Network (HAPPEN)_school network. PARTICIPANTS: Complete linked records of eligible participants were obtained for n=7062 individuals. 39.1% (n=2764) were tested (age 10.6±0.9; 48.9% girls) and 8.1% (n=569) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (age 10.6±1.0; 54.5% girls). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Logistic regression of health-related behaviours and demographics were used to determine the ORs of factors associated with (1) being tested for SARS-CoV-2 and (2) testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: Consuming sugary snacks (1-2 days/week OR=1.24, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.49; 5-6 days/week OR=1.31, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.61; reference 0 days), can swim 25 m (OR=1.21, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.39) and age (OR=1.25, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.35) were associated with an increased likelihood of being tested for SARS-CoV-2. Eating breakfast (OR=1.52, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.27), weekly physical activity ≥60 min (1-2 days OR=1.69, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.74; 3-4 days OR=1.76, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.82; reference 0 days), out-of-school club participation (OR=1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10), can ride a bike (OR=1.39, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.93), age (OR=1.16, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.28) and girls (OR=1.21, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.46) were associated with an increased likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Living in least deprived areas (quintile 4 OR=0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.90; quintile 5 OR=0.64, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.89) compared with the most deprived (quintile 1) was associated with a decreased likelihood. CONCLUSIONS: Associations may be related to parental health literacy and monitoring behaviours. Physically active behaviours may include coparticipation with others and exposure to SARS-CoV-2. A risk-versus-benefit approach must be considered in relation to promoting these health behaviours, given the importance of health-related behaviours such as childhood physical activity for development.

Developing a patient-centred tool for pain measurement and evaluation in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: Pain affects 60% of the autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) population. Despite being an early and debilitating symptom, it is poorly characterized and management is suboptimal. This study aimed to develop an ADPKD-specific pain assessment tool (APAT) to facilitate pain research. METHODS: Following a systematic review of PATs used in ADPKD studies and against international recommendations for pain trials, our multi-disciplinary team of clinical experts and patients constructed an ADPKD-pain conceptual framework of key pain evaluation themes. We compiled a new APAT covering domains prioritized within our framework using components of questionnaires validated in other chronic pain disorders. The APAT was administered longitudinally within a randomized high-water intake trial (NCT02933268) to ascertain feasibility and provide pilot data on ADPKD pain. RESULTS: Thirty-nine ADPKD participants with chronic kidney disease Stages 1-4 provided 129 APAT responses. Each participant completed a median of 3 (range 1-10) assessments. Respondents' mean ± standard deviation age was 47 ± 13 years; 59% (23) were female; and 69% (27) had enlarged kidneys with median time from diagnosis 14.2 (interquartile range 7.0-25.9) years. Pain (52%) and associated analgesic use (29%) were common. Pain severity was associated with increasing age [odds ratio (OR) = 1.07, P = 0.009], female gender (OR = 4.34, P = 0.018), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (OR = 5.45, P = 0.021) and hypertension (OR = 12.11, P = 0.007), but not with kidney size (P = 0.23). The APAT achieved good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient = 0.91) and test-retest reliability (domain intra-class correlation coefficients ranging from 0.62 to 0.90). CONCLUSIONS: The APAT demonstrated good acceptability and reliability, and following further validation in a larger cohort could represent an invaluable tool for future ADPKD pain studies.

Mixed-methods process evaluation of SafeTea: a multimedia campaign to prevent hot drink scalds in young children and promote burn first aid.

OBJECTIVES: SafeTea is a multifaceted intervention delivered by community practitioners to prevent hot drink scalds to young children and improve parents' knowledge of appropriate burn first aid. We adapted SafeTea for a national multimedia campaign, and present a mixed-methods process evaluation of the campaign. METHODS: We used social media, a website hosting downloadable materials and media publicity to disseminate key messages to parents/caregivers of young children and professionals working with these families across the UK. The SafeTea campaign was launched on National Burns Awareness Day (NBAD), October 2019, and ran for 3 months. Process evaluation measurements included social media metrics, Google Analytics, and quantitative and qualitative results from a survey of professionals who requested hard copies of the materials via the website. RESULTS: Findings were summarised under four themes: 'reach', 'engagement', 'acceptability' and 'impact/behavioural change'. The launch on NBAD generated widespread publicity. The campaign reached a greater number of the target audience than anticipated, with over 400 000 views of the SafeTea educational videos. Parents and professionals engaged with SafeTea and expressed positive opinions of the campaign and materials. SafeTea encouraged parents to consider how to change their behaviours to minimise the risks associated with hot drinks. Reach and engagement steadily declined after the first month due to reduced publicity and social media promotion. CONCLUSION: The SafeTea campaign was successful in terms of reach and engagement. The launch on NBAD was essential for generating media interest. Future campaigns could be shorter, with more funding for additional social media content and promotion.

Head computed tomography in suspected physical abuse: time to rethink?

BACKGROUND: National guidance recommends CT-head for all children <1 year old with suspected physical abuse, and to be considered for those <2 years old to exclude abusive head trauma. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether this guidance is followed, and the associations between clinical presentation and CT findings, to determine whether guidance could be refined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective case note review of all children <2 years old who underwent medical assessment for suspected abuse (2009-2017). Outcome measures were frequency of CT-head, and diagnostic yield of intracranial injury, skull fracture or both. RESULTS: CT-head was undertaken in 60.3% (152/252) of children <12 months old and 7.8% (13/167) of those aged 12-24 months. The diagnostic yield in children who had a CT-head was 27.1% in children <6 months old, 14.3% in those 6-12 months old (p=0.07) and 42.6% (6/13) in those 12-24 months old. For those with head swelling or neurological impairment, it was 84.2% (32/38). In children <12 months old without these clinical features, the estimated prevalence of occult head injury was 6.1% (7/115). The strongest predictors of an abnormal CT-head were swelling to the head (OR 46.7), neurological impairment (OR 20.6) and a low haemoglobin (OR 11.8). CONCLUSION: All children <2 years of age with suspected physical abuse and neurological impairment or head swelling should undergo CT-head. Where the technical skills and the requisite expertise to interpret MRI exist, an MRI scan may be the optimal first-line neuroimaging investigation in infants who are neurologically stable with injuries unrelated to the head to minimise cranial radiation exposure.

Assessing the role of ketogenic dietary therapy in ring chromosome 20 syndrome: A patient-led approach.

Ring chromosome 20 syndrome (r(20)) is an ultra-rare disease characterized by drug-refractory epilepsy, cognitive impairment, and behavioral problems. Nonpharmacological treatments alongside antiepileptic drugs early after diagnosis may help reduce seizure frequency and preserve cognition. Ketogenic dietary therapy (KDT) has benefitted children with complex, refractory epilepsies, but its efficacy in r(20) is unknown. We assessed clinical prescription, implementation, and patient experience of KDT in r(20) through online surveys and a workshop. Forty-two patients, families, carers, and 23 healthcare professionals completed the surveys. While nearly all patients were familiar with KDT, only half had tried it. Significant improvement in seizure activity, cognition, and alertness was reported; side effects were typically mild but with one report of increased seizure frequency. A high rate of co-morbidity, older age at presentation, behavioral problems, and cognitive impairment can make implementing KDT in r(20) challenging. In the UK, NHS KDT services are predominantly available to pediatric patients, with very limited adult access. A health economic analysis illustrating reduced acute care costs or improved quality of life may support more widespread KDT implementation. Growing evidence supports KDT as an effective and safe intervention, but further research is needed to understand the mechanisms of r(20) and its interaction with ketosis.

Validation of the PredAHT-2 prediction tool for abusive head trauma.

OBJECTIVE: The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool calculates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) in children <3 years of age who have sustained intracranial injuries (ICIs) identified on neuroimaging, based on combinations of six clinical features: head/neck bruising, seizures, apnoea, rib fracture, long bone fracture and retinal haemorrhages. PredAHT version 2 enables a probability calculation when information regarding any of the six features is absent. We aimed to externally validate PredAHT-2 in an Australian/New Zealand population. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a prospective multicentre study of paediatric head injuries conducted between April 2011 and November 2014. We extracted data on patients with possible AHT at five tertiary paediatric centres and included all children <3 years of age admitted to hospital who had sustained ICI identified on neuroimaging. We assigned cases as positive for AHT, negative for AHT or having indeterminate outcome following multidisciplinary review. The estimated probability of AHT for each case was calculated using PredAHT-2, blinded to outcome. Tool performance measures were calculated, with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of 87 ICI cases, 27 (31%) were positive for AHT; 45 (52%) were negative for AHT and 15 (17%) had indeterminate outcome. Using a probability cut-off of 50%, excluding indeterminate cases, PredAHT-2 had a sensitivity of 74% (95% CI 54% t o89%) and a specificity of 87% (95% CI 73% to 95%) for AHT. Positive predictive value was 77% (95% CI 56% to 91%), negative predictive value was 85% (95% CI 71% to 94%) and the area under the curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.92). CONCLUSION: PredAHT-2 demonstrated reasonably high point sensitivity and specificity when externally validated in an Australian/New Zealand population. Performance was similar to that in the original validation study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12614000463673.

Methodological standards for the development and evaluation of clinical prediction rules: a review of the literature.

Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) that predict the absolute risk of a clinical condition or future outcome for individual patients are abundant in the medical literature; however, systematic reviews have demonstrated shortcomings in the methodological quality and reporting of prediction studies. To maximise the potential and clinical usefulness of CPRs, they must be rigorously developed and validated, and their impact on clinical practice and patient outcomes must be evaluated. This review aims to present a comprehensive overview of the stages involved in the development, validation and evaluation of CPRs, and to describe in detail the methodological standards required at each stage, illustrated with examples where appropriate. Important features of the study design, statistical analysis, modelling strategy, data collection, performance assessment, CPR presentation and reporting are discussed, in addition to other, often overlooked aspects such as the acceptability, cost-effectiveness and longer-term implementation of CPRs, and their comparison with clinical judgement. Although the development and evaluation of a robust, clinically useful CPR is anything but straightforward, adherence to the plethora of methodological standards, recommendations and frameworks at each stage will assist in the development of a rigorous CPR that has the potential to contribute usefully to clinical practice and decision-making and have a positive impact on patient care.

Potential impact of the validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool: A clinical vignette study.

BACKGROUND: The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) tool estimates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) in children <3 years old with intracranial injury. OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of PredAHT on clinicians' AHT probability estimates and child protection (CP) actions, and assess inter-rater agreement between their estimates and between their CP actions, before and after PredAHT. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Twenty-nine clinicians from different specialties, at teaching and community hospitals. METHODS: Clinicians estimated the probability of AHT and indicated their CP actions in six clinical vignettes. One vignette described a child with AHT, another described a child with non-AHT, and four represented "gray" cases, where the diagnosis was uncertain. Clinicians calculated the PredAHT score, and reported whether this altered their estimate/actions. The 'think-aloud' method was used to capture the reasoning behind their responses. Analysis included linear modelling, linear mixed-effects modelling, chi-square tests, Fisher's exact tests, intraclass correlation, Gwet's AC1 coefficient and thematic analysis. RESULTS: Overall, PredAHT significantly influenced clinicians' probability estimates in all vignettes (p < 0.001), although the impact on individual clinicians varied. However, the influence of PredAHT on clinicians' CP actions was limited; after using PredAHT, 9/29 clinicians changed their CP actions in only 11/174 instances. Clinicians' AHT probability estimates and CP actions varied somewhat both before and after PredAHT. Qualitative data suggested that PredAHT may increase clinicians' confidence in their decisions when considered alongside other associated clinical, historical and social factors. CONCLUSIONS: PredAHT significantly influenced clinicians' AHT probability estimates, but had minimal impact on their CP actions.

Factors influencing child protection professionals' decision-making and multidisciplinary collaboration in suspected abusive head trauma cases: A qualitative study.

Clinicians face unique challenges when assessing suspected child abuse cases. The majority of the literature exploring diagnostic decision-making in this field is anecdotal or survey-based and there is a lack of studies exploring decision-making around suspected abusive head trauma (AHT). We aimed to determine factors influencing decision-making and multidisciplinary collaboration in suspected AHT cases, amongst 56 child protection professionals. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with clinicians (25), child protection social workers (10), legal practitioners (9, including 4 judges), police officers (8), and pathologists (4), purposively sampled across southwest United Kingdom. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and imported into NVivo for thematic analysis (38% double-coded). We identified six themes influencing decision-making: 'professional', 'medical', 'circumstantial', 'family', 'psychological' and 'legal' factors. Participants diagnose AHT based on clinical features, the history, and the social history, after excluding potential differential diagnoses. Participants find these cases emotionally challenging but are aware of potential biases in their evaluations and strive to overcome these. Barriers to decision-making include lack of experience, uncertainty, the impact on the family, the pressure of making the correct diagnosis, and disagreements between professionals. Legal barriers include alternative theories of causation proposed in court. Facilitators include support from colleagues and knowledge of the evidence-base. Participants' experiences with multidisciplinary collaboration are generally positive, however child protection social workers and police officers are heavily reliant on clinicians to guide their decision-making, suggesting the need for training on the medical aspects of physical abuse for these professionals and multidisciplinary training that provides knowledge about the roles of each agency.

Acceptability of the Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) clinical prediction tool: A qualitative study with child protection professionals.

The validated Predicting Abusive Head Trauma (PredAHT) tool estimates the probability of abusive head trauma (AHT) based on combinations of six clinical features: head/neck bruising; apnea; seizures; rib/long-bone fractures; retinal hemorrhages. We aimed to determine the acceptability of PredAHT to child protection professionals. We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with 56 participants: clinicians (25), child protection social workers (10), legal practitioners (9, including 4 judges), police officers (8), and pathologists (4), purposively sampled across southwest United Kingdom. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and imported into NVivo for thematic analysis (38% double-coded). We explored participants' evaluations of PredAHT, their opinions about the optimal way to present the calculated probabilities, and their interpretation of probabilities in the context of suspected AHT. Clinicians, child protection social workers and police thought PredAHT would be beneficial as an objective adjunct to their professional judgment, to give them greater confidence in their decisions. Lawyers and pathologists appreciated its value for prompting multidisciplinary investigations, but were uncertain of its usefulness in court. Perceived disadvantages included: possible over-reliance and false reassurance from a low score. Interpretations regarding which percentages equate to 'low', 'medium' or 'high' likelihood of AHT varied; participants preferred a precise % probability over these general terms. Participants would use PredAHT with provisos: if they received multi-agency training to define accepted risk thresholds for consistent interpretation; with knowledge of its development; if it was accepted by colleagues. PredAHT may therefore increase professionals' confidence in their decision-making when investigating suspected AHT, but may be of less value in court.