The common drivers of children and young people's health and wellbeing across 13 local government areas: a systems view.

BACKGROUND: System dynamics approaches, including group model building (GMB) and causal loop diagrams (CLDs), can be used to document complex public health problems from a community perspective. This paper aims to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) methods to combine multiple CLDs created by local communities into a summary CLD, to identify common drivers of the health and wellbeing of children and young people. METHODS: Thirteen community CLDs regarding children and young people health and wellbeing were merged into one diagram involving three steps: (1) combining variable names; (2) CLD merging, where multiple CLDs were combined into one CLD with a set of unique variables and connections; (3) paring, where the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method was used to generate a cut-point to reduce the number of variables and connections and to rank the overall importance of each variable in the merged CLD. RESULTS: Combining variable names resulted in 290 variables across the 13 CLDS. A total of 1,042 causal links were identified in the merged CLD. The DEMATEL analysis of the merged CLD identified 23 common variables with a net importance between 1.0 and 4.5 R + C values and 57 causal links. The variables with the highest net importance were 'mental health' and 'social connection & support' classified as high net receivers of influence within the system. CONCLUSIONS: Combining large CLDs into a simple diagram represents a generalisable model of the drivers of complex health problems.

Glenohumeral Instability and Arm Pain in Overhead Throwing Athletes: A Correlational Study.

Background: The overhead activity of throwing a baseball is arguably the most demanding athletic endeavor placed on the glenohumeral (GH) joint. Previous studies illustrate that 75-80% of baseball players will experience some degree of upper extremity (UE) pain. GH instability is thought to play a role. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between GH joint hypermobility and instability with measures of arm pain and performance in overhead throwing athletes. Methods: Actively competing baseball pitchers were recruited and evaluated once with the anterior-posterior Load and Shift examination procedure, the Kerlan-Jobe Orthopedic Clinic Shoulder and Elbow Questionnaire (KJOC), and the Functional Arm Scale for Throwers (FAST). Multivariate analysis was performed to identify correlation between severe GH capsular laxity (GH instability), mild capsular laxity (GH hypermobility), no capsular laxity (GH normal), and presence of shoulder pain when pitching. Study Design: Cross-sectional Study. Results: Forty-five pitchers were evaluated, 62.2% of throwing shoulders were classified normal stability, 26.7% were classified hypermobile, and 11.1% were classified unstable. Average KJOC scores for pitchers with the three mobility categories were 66.1 (normal), 59.7 (hypermobile), and 45.0 (unstable). Average FAST scores among the pitchers were 19.9 (normal), 34.2 (hypermobile), and 32.2 (unstable). Pitchers with GH instability and GH hypermobility demonstrated increased arm pain compared to athletes with normal GH joints; KJOC scores of 3.2, 5.5, and 7.4 (p = 0.0007), respectively. Conclusion: Pitchers with GH instability and hypermobility demonstrated significantly increased ratings of arm pain compared to pitchers with no capsular laxity. Level of Evidence: 3b.

Tracking implementation within a community-led whole of system approach to address childhood overweight and obesity in south west Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a chronic disease that contributes to additional comorbidities including diabetes, kidney disease and several cancers. Change4Campbelltown implemented a 'whole of system' approach to address childhood overweight and obesity. We present methods to track implementation and stakeholder engagement in Change4Campbelltown. METHODS: Change4Campbelltown aimed to build capacity among key leaders and the broader community to apply techniques from systems thinking to develop community-led actions that address childhood obesity. Change4Campbelltown comprised development of a stakeholder-informed Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) and locally-tailored action plan, formation of key stakeholder and community working groups to prioritise and implement actions, and continuous monitoring of intervention actions. Implementation data included an action register, stakeholder engagement database and key engagement activities and were collected quarterly by the project management team over 2 years of reporting. RESULTS: Engagement activities increased level of community engagement amongst key leaders, the school-sector and community members. Community-led action increased as engagement increased and this action is mapped directly to the primary point of influence on the CLD. As action spread diversified across the CLD, the geographical spread of action within the community increased. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides a pragmatic example of the methods used to track implementation of complex interventions that are addressing childhood overweight and obesity.

Tools and analytic techniques to synthesise community knowledge in CBPR using computer-mediated participatory system modelling.

Participatory systems thinking methods are often used in community-based participatory research to engage and respond to complexity. Participation in systems thinking activities creates opportunities for participants to gain useful insights about complexity. It is desirable to design activities that extend the benefits of this participation into communities, as these insights are predictive of success in community-based prevention. This study tests an online, computer-mediated participatory system modelling platform (STICKE) and associated methods for collating and analysing its outputs. STICKE was trialled among a group of community members to test a computer-mediated system modelling exercise. The causal diagrams resulting from the exercise were then merged, and network analysis and DEMATEL methods applied to inform the generation of a smaller summary model to communicate insights from the participant group as a whole. Participants successfully completed the online modelling activity, and created causal diagrams consistent with expectations. The DEMATEL analysis was identified as the participant-preferred method for converging individuals causal diagrams into a coherent and useful summary. STICKE is an accessible tool that enabled participants to create causal diagrams online. Methods trialled in this study provide a protocol for combining and summarising individual causal diagrams that was perceived to be useful by the participant group. STICKE supports communities to consider and respond to complex problems at a local level, which is cornerstone of sustainable effective prevention. Understanding how communities perceive their own health challenges will be important to better support and inform locally owned prevention efforts.

Quantifying a Systems Map: Network Analysis of a Childhood Obesity Causal Loop Diagram.

Causal loop diagrams developed by groups capture a shared understanding of complex problems and provide a visual tool to guide interventions. This paper explores the application of network analytic methods as a new way to gain quantitative insight into the structure of an obesity causal loop diagram to inform intervention design. Identification of the structural features of causal loop diagrams is likely to provide new insights into the emergent properties of complex systems and analysing central drivers has the potential to identify leverage points. The results found the structure of the obesity causal loop diagram to resemble commonly observed empirical networks known for efficient spread of information. Known drivers of obesity were found to be the most central variables along with others unique to obesity prevention in the community. While causal loop diagrams are often specific to single communities, the analytic methods provide means to contrast and compare multiple causal loop diagrams for complex problems.

Enhancing medical named entity recognition with an extended segment representation technique.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is to formulate an extended segment representation (SR) technique to enhance named entity recognition (NER) in medical applications. METHODS: An extension to the IOBES (Inside/Outside/Begin/End/Single) SR technique is formulated. In the proposed extension, a new class is assigned to words that do not belong to a named entity (NE) in one context but appear as an NE in other contexts. Ambiguity in such cases can negatively affect the results of classification-based NER techniques. Assigning a separate class to words that can potentially cause ambiguity in NER allows a classifier to detect NEs more accurately; therefore increasing classification accuracy. RESULTS: The proposed SR technique is evaluated using the i2b2 2010 medical challenge data set with eight different classifiers. Each classifier is trained separately to extract three different medical NEs, namely treatment, problem, and test. From the three experimental results, the extended SR technique is able to improve the average F1-measure results pertaining to seven out of eight classifiers. The kNN classifier shows an average reduction of 0.18% across three experiments, while the C4.5 classifier records an average improvement of 9.33%.

A comparison of two non-thrust mobilization techniques applied to the C7 segment in patients with restricted and painful cervical rotation.

OBJECTIVES: Cervical mobilization and manipulation have been shown to improve cervical range of motion and pain. Rotatory thrust manipulation applied to the lower cervical segments is associated with controversy and the potential for eliciting adverse reactions (AR). The purpose of this clinical trial was to describe two translatory non-thrust mobilization techniques and evaluate their effect on cervical pain, motion restriction, and whether any adverse effects were reported when applied to the C7 segment. METHODS: This trial included 30 participants with painful and restricted cervical rotation. Participants were randomly assigned to receive one of the two mobilization techniques. Active cervical rotation and pain intensity measurements were recorded pre- and post-intervention. Within group comparisons were determined using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and between group comparisons were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test. Significance was set at P = 0.05. RESULTS: Thirty participants were evaluated immediately after one of the two mobilization techniques was applied. There was a statistically significant difference (improvement) for active cervical rotation after application of the C7 facet distraction technique for both right (P = 0.022) and left (P = 0.022) rotation. Statistically significant improvement was also found for the C7 facet gliding technique for both right (P = 0.022) and left rotation (P = 0.020). Pain reduction was statistically significant for both right and left rotation after application of both techniques. Both mobilization techniques produced similar positive effects and one was not statistically superior to the other. DISCUSSION: A single application of both C7 mobilization techniques improved active cervical rotation, reduced perceived pain, and did not produce any AR in 30 patients with neck pain and movement limitation. These two non-thrust techniques may offer clinicians an additional safe and effective manual intervention for patients with limited and painful cervical rotation. A more robust experimental design is recommended to further examine these and similar cervical translatory mobilization techniques.

Comprehensive review of neural network-based prediction intervals and new advances.

This paper evaluates the four leading techniques proposed in the literature for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for neural network point forecasts. The delta, Bayesian, bootstrap, and mean-variance estimation (MVE) methods are reviewed and their performance for generating high-quality PIs is compared. PI-based measures are proposed and applied for the objective and quantitative assessment of each method's performance. A selection of 12 synthetic and real-world case studies is used to examine each method's performance for PI construction. The comparison is performed on the basis of the quality of generated PIs, the repeatability of the results, the computational requirements and the PIs variability with regard to the data uncertainty. The obtained results in this paper indicate that: 1) the delta and Bayesian methods are the best in terms of quality and repeatability, and 2) the MVE and bootstrap methods are the best in terms of low computational load and the width variability of PIs. This paper also introduces the concept of combinations of PIs, and proposes a new method for generating combined PIs using the traditional PIs. Genetic algorithm is applied for adjusting the combiner parameters through minimization of a PI-based cost function subject to two sets of restrictions. It is shown that the quality of PIs produced by the combiners is dramatically better than the quality of PIs obtained from each individual method.

Ultrasound analysis of the vertebral artery during non-thrust cervical translatoric spinal manipulation.

OBJECTIVE: Cervical translatoric spinal manipulation (TSM) techniques have been suggested as a safer alternative to cervical thrust rotatory techniques. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of three C5-C6 non-thrust TSM techniques on vertebral artery (VA) lumen diameter (LD) and two blood flow velocity parameters. The two-tailed research hypothesis was that the TSM techniques would result in a significant change (increase or decrease) in blood flow velocity and arterial LD at the C5-C6 intertransverse portion of the VA. METHODS: In a sample of 30 subjects representative of a clinical population, color-coded duplex Doppler diagnostic ultrasound imaging was used to collect data on LD, peak systolic velocity (PSV), and end diastolic velocity with the cervical spine positioned in neutral and in three different manipulation positions. Pair-wise mean differences between measurements at baseline (neutral position) and in all three manipulation positions were analyzed using two-tailed paired t-tests with alpha set at 0·05. RESULTS: Of the 18 paired comparisons, there were four statistically significant differences between measurements in the neutral position and a manipulation position, three concerning LD and one PSV. DISCUSSION: The three significant differences in LD ranged from 4·6 to 3·2% and were not associated with changes in blood flow velocity. The one significant change in PSV was only 6·6 cm/s. A value that still greatly exceeded the end diastolic velocity. No subject experienced symptoms associated with VA compromise. This study has provided evidence for the safety of the three lower cervical non-thrust TSM techniques on the current population studied. Further study is required on thrust versus non-thrust TSM techniques and on levels other than C5-C6.

Lower upper bound estimation method for construction of neural network-based prediction intervals.

Prediction intervals (PIs) have been proposed in the literature to provide more information by quantifying the level of uncertainty associated to the point forecasts. Traditional methods for construction of neural network (NN) based PIs suffer from restrictive assumptions about data distribution and massive computational loads. In this paper, we propose a new, fast, yet reliable method for the construction of PIs for NN predictions. The proposed lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method constructs an NN with two outputs for estimating the prediction interval bounds. NN training is achieved through the minimization of a proposed PI-based objective function, which covers both interval width and coverage probability. The method does not require any information about the upper and lower bounds of PIs for training the NN. The simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the cost function and adjustment of NN parameters. The demonstrated results for 10 benchmark regression case studies clearly show the LUBE method to be capable of generating high-quality PIs in a short time. Also, the quantitative comparison with three traditional techniques for prediction interval construction reveals that the LUBE method is simpler, faster, and more reliable.

The effect of tibio-femoral traction mobilization on passive knee flexion motion impairment and pain: a case series.

The purpose of this case series was to explore the effects of tibio-femoral (TF) manual traction on pain and passive range of motion (PROM) in individuals with unilateral motion impairment and pain in knee flexion. Thirteen participants volunteered for the study. All participants received 6 minutes of TF traction mobilization applied at end-range passive knee flexion. PROM measurements were taken before the intervention and after 2, 4, and 6 minutes of TF joint traction. Pain was measured using a visual analog scale with the TF joint at rest, at end-range passive knee flexion, during the application of joint traction, and immediately post-treatment. There were significant differences in PROM after 2 and 4 minutes of traction, with no significance noted after 4 minutes. A significant change in knee flexion of 25.9°, which exceeded the MDC(95,) was found when comparing PROM measurements pre- to final intervention. While pain did not change significantly over time, pain levels did change significantly during each treatment session. Pain significantly increased when the participant's knee was passively flexed to end range; it was reduced, although not significantly, during traction mobilization; and it significantly decreased following traction. This case series supports TF joint traction as a means of stretching shortened articular and periarticular tissues without increasing reported levels of pain during or after treatment. In addition, this is the first study documenting the temporal aspects of treatment effectiveness in motion restoration.

The immediate effects of upper thoracic translatoric spinal manipulation on cervical pain and range of motion: a randomized clinical trial.

This study examined the effect of translatoric spinal manipulation (TSM) on cervical pain and cervical active motion restriction when applied to upper thoracic (T1-T4) segments. Active cervical rotation range of motion was measured re- and post-intervention with a cervical inclinometer (CROM), and cervical pain status was monitored before and after manipulation with a Faces Pain Scale. Study participants included a sample of convenience that included 32 patients referred to physical therapy with complaints of pain in the mid-cervical region and restricted active cervical rotation. Twenty-two patients were randomly assigned to the experimental group and ten were assigned to the control group. Pre- and post-intervention cervical range of motion and pain scale measurements were taken by a physical therapist assistant who was blinded to group assignment. The experimental group received TSM to hypomobile upper thoracic segments. The control group received no intervention. Paired t-tests were used to analyze within-group changes in cervical rotation and pain, and a 2-way repeated-measure ANOVA was used to analyze between-group differences in cervical rotation and pain. Significance was accepted at p = 0.05. Significant changes that exceeded the MDC(95) were detected for cervical rotation both within group and between groups with the TSM group demonstrating increased mean (SD) in right rotation of 8.23 degrees (7.41 degrees ) and left rotation of 7.09 degrees (5.83 degrees ). Pain levels perceived during post-intervention cervical rotation showed significant improvement during right rotation for patients experiencing pain during bilateral rotation only (p=.05). This study supports the hypothesis that spinal manipulation applied to the upper thoracic spine (T1-T4 motion segments) significantly increases cervical rotation ROM and may reduce cervical pain at end range rotation for patients experiencing pain during bilateral cervical rotation.

Use of anterior tibial translation in the management of patellofemoral pain syndrome in older patients: a case series.

The currently most plausible pathophysiologic theory for the etiology of pain in patients with patellofemoral pain syndrome involves abnormal mechanical stress to the patellofemoral joint. At this time, there is no consensus nor is there a sufficient body of research evidence to guide management of patients with patellofemoral pain syndrome. This means that clinicians have to rely to some extent on a mechanism-based approach. Decreased quadriceps flexibility and muscular endurance have been identified as possibly relevant impairments in patients with patellofemoral pain syndrome. Surgical anterior translation of the tibial tuberosity with the Maquet procedure has a proven positive effect on patellofemoral contact forces. This case series studied the effects of a physical therapy management approach that included translating the tibia anteriorly while performing open kinetic chain quadriceps training and manual muscle stretching of the rectus femoris muscle. Outcome measures used included the numeric pain rating scale and goniometric measurement of rectus femoris muscle length in a standardized test position. Anterior tibial translation reduced pain during both interventions and also produced clinically and statistically significant pre- to post-intervention improvements in pain during manual muscle testing and rectus femoris length testing in addition to statistically significant pre- to post-intervention increases in rectus femoris muscle length. The results of this quasi-experimental study indicate the need for future experimental study. Future study should include functional in addition to impairment-based outcome measures, standardization and blinding for the rectus femoris muscle length test (should future researchers chose to again use this outcome measure), a pilot study establishing reliability of outcome measures collected by the therapist, younger subjects, and the collection of longer-term outcome data.