Spatial habitat suitability prediction of essential oil wild plants on Indonesia's degraded lands.

Background: Essential oils are natural products of aromatic plants with numerous uses. Essential oils have been traded worldwide and utilized in various industries. Indonesia is the sixth largest essential oil producing country, but land degradation is a risk to the continuing extraction and utilization of natural products. Production of essential oil plants on degraded lands is a potential strategy to mitigate this risk. This study aimed to identify degraded lands in Indonesia that could be suitable habitats for five wild native essential oil producing plants, namely Acronychia pedunculata (L.) Miq., Baeckea frutescens L., Cynometra cauliflora L., Magnolia montana (Blume) Figlar, and Magnolia sumatrana var. glauca (Blume) Figlar & Noot using various species distribution models. Methods: The habitat suitability of these species was predicted by comparing ten species distribution models, including Bioclim, classification and regression trees (CART), flexible discriminant analysis (FDA), Maxlike, boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), generalized linear models (GLM), Ranger, support vector machine (SVM), and Random Forests (RF). Bioclimatic, topographic and soil variables were used as the predictors of the model habitat suitability. The models were evaluated according to their AUC and TSS metrics. Model selection was based on ranking performance. The total suitable area for five native essential oil producing plants in Indonesia's degraded lands was derived by overlaying the models with degraded land locations. Results: The habitat suitability model for these species was well predicted with an AUC value >0.8 and a TSS value >0.7. The most important predictor variables affecting the habitat suitability of these species are mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation of coldest quarter, cation exchange capacity, nitrogen, sand, and soil organic carbon. C. cauliflora has the largest predicted suitable area, followed by M. montana, B. frutescens, M. sumatrana var. glauca, and A. pedunculata. The overlapping area between predictive habitat suitability and degraded lands indicates that the majority of degraded lands in Indonesia's forest areas are suitable for those species. Conclusion: The degraded lands predicted as suitable habitats for five native essential oil producing plants were widely spread throughout Indonesia, mostly in its main islands. These findings can be used by the Indonesian Government for evaluating policies for degraded land utilization and restorations that can enhance the lands' productivity.

Comprehensive approaches for assessing extinction risk of endangered tropical pitcher plant Nepenthes talangensis.

It has been 23 years since the conservation status of highland tropical pitcher plant Nepenthes talangensis was assessed in 2000. A number of existing threats (anthropogenic and environmental) may be increasing the risk of extinction for the species. A better understanding of the ecology and conservation needs of the species is required to manage the wild populations. Specifically, better information related to population distributions, ecological requirements, priority conservation areas, the impact of future climate on suitable habitat, and current population structure is needed to properly assess extinction risks. A better understanding of the requirements of the species in its natural habitat would benefit for successfully securing the species at Botanic Gardens. We have identified 14 new occurrence records of N. talangensis in Mount Talang. Study on the ecological requirement using Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) suggested that elevation, canopy cover, soil pH, and slope are four important variables. The population of N. talangensis was dominated by juvenile and mature (sterile) individuals, we found only a few mature males (7 individuals) and females (4 individuals) in the sampled areas. Our modelling of current conditions predicted that there were 1,076 ha of suitable habitat to very highly suitable habitat in Mount Talang, which is 14.7% of the total area. Those predicted habitats ranged in elevation from 1,740-2,558 m. Suitable habitat in 2100 was predicted to decrease in extent and be at higher elevation in the less extreme climate change scenario (SSP 1-2.6) and extreme climate change scenario (SSP 5-8.5). We projected larger habitat loss in the SSP 5-8.5 compared to the SSP 1-2.6 climate change scenario.. We proposed the category CR B1ab(iii,v), C2a(ii) as the new conservation status of N. talangensis. The status is a higher category of threat compared to the current status of the species (EN C2b, ver 2.3). Nepenthes talangensis seedlings and cuttings established in a Botanic Garden have relatively high survival rate at about 83.4%. Sixty percent of the seeds germinated in growth media successfully grew to become seedlings.

Holistic aboveground ecological productivity efficiency modeling using data envelopment analysis in the southeastern U.S.

Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of an ecosystem is among the most important metrics of valued ecosystem services. Measuring the efficiency scores of ecological production (ESEP) based on ANPP using relevant variables is valuable for identifying inefficient sites. The efficiency scores computed by the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) may be influenced by the number of input variables incorporated into the models and two DEA settings-orientations and returns-to-scales (RTSs). Therefore, the objectives were threefold to: (1) identify soil-environmental variables relevant to ANPP, (2) assess the sensitivity of ESEP to the number of input variables and DEA settings, and (3) assess local management relations with ESEP. The ANPP rates were calculated for pine forests in the southeastern U.S. where 10 management types were used. This was followed by an all-relevant variable selection technique based on 696 variables that cover biotic, pedogenic, climatic, geological, and topographical factors. Five minimal-optimal variable selection techniques were further applied to create five parsimonious sets that contain a different number of variables used as DEA inputs. After setting ANPP as the output variable, two DEA orientations (input/output) and six RTS were applied to compute ESEP. The variable selection methods succeeded in objectively identifying the major factors relevant to ANPP variation. The site index showed the highest correlation with ANPP (r = 0.39), while various precipitation factors were negatively correlated (r = - 0.15~ - 0.29, p < 0.01). Parsimonious ESEP models observed a decrease in score variances as the number of input variables increased. Various RTS produced similar scores across orientations. Of the DEA settings, an output orientation with decreasing RTS produced the most progressive ESEP with large variation. Results also suggested that macro- and micronutrient fertilization is the best combination of management strategies to achieve high ESEP. This holistic benchmark approach can be applied to other ecological functions in diverse regions.

A quantitative assessment of site-level factors in influencing Chukar (Alectoris chukar) introduction outcomes.

Chukar partridges (Alectoris chukar) are popular game birds that have been introduced throughout the world. Propagules of varying magnitudes have been used to try and establish populations into novel locations, though the relationship between propagule size and species establishment remains speculative. Previous qualitative studies argue that site-level factors are of importance when determining where to release Chukar. We utilized machine learning ensembles to evaluate bioclimatic and topographic data from native and naturalized regions to produce predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and evaluate the relationship between establishment and site-level factors for the conterminous United States. Predictions were then compared to a distribution map based on recorded occurrences to determine model prediction performance. SDM predictions scored an average of 88% accuracy and suitability favored states where Chukars were successfully introduced and are present. Our study shows that the use of quantitative models in evaluating environmental variables and that site-level factors are strong indicators of habitat suitability and species establishment.

Propagule pressure does not consistently predict the outcomes of exotic bird introductions.

Some have argued that the role of propagule pressure in explaining the outcomes of bird introductions is well-supported by the historical record. Here, we show that the data from a large published database (including 832 records with propagule information) do not support the conclusion that propagule pressure is the primary determinant of introduction success in birds. A few compendia of historical reports have been widely used to evaluate introduction success, typically by combining data from numerous species and introduction locations. Very few taxa, other than birds, have usable spatially explicit records of introductions over time. This availability of data inflates the perceived importance of bird analyses for addressing factors related to invasion success. The available data allow limited testing of taxonomic and site-level factors of introduction outcomes. We did find significant differences in effort and success probabilities among avian orders and across highly aggregated spatial regions. As a test of a standard and logical expectation of the propagule pressure hypothesis, we concentrated on introductions with the smallest propagules, because it is for these the hypothesis is most likely to be correct. We analyzed the effect of numbers released in small propagules (two through 10) for 227 releases. Weighted linear regression indicated no significant effect of propagule size for this range of release size. In fact, the mean success rate of 28% for propagules of 2-10 isn't significantly different than that of 34% for propagules of 11-100. Following the example of previous analyses, we expanded the statistical test of propagule pressure to include the full range of release numbers. No significant support for the propagule pressure hypothesis was found using logistic regression with either logit or complementary log-log link functions.

Spatially-explicit modeling of multi-scale drivers of aboveground forest biomass and water yield in watersheds of the Southeastern United States.

Understanding ecosystem processes and the influence of regional scale drivers can provide useful information for managing forest ecosystems. Examining more local scale drivers of forest biomass and water yield can also provide insights for identifying and better understanding the effects of climate change and management on forests. We used diverse multi-scale datasets, functional models and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model ecosystem processes at the watershed scale and to interpret the influence of ecological drivers across the Southeastern United States (SE US). Aboveground forest biomass (AGB) was determined from available geospatial datasets and water yield was estimated using the Water Supply and Stress Index (WaSSI) model at the watershed level. Our geostatistical model examined the spatial variation in these relationships between ecosystem processes, climate, biophysical, and forest management variables at the watershed level across the SE US. Ecological and management drivers at the watershed level were analyzed locally to identify whether drivers contribute positively or negatively to aboveground forest biomass and water yield ecosystem processes and thus identifying potential synergies and tradeoffs across the SE US region. Although AGB and water yield drivers varied geographically across the study area, they were generally significantly influenced by climate (rainfall and temperature), land-cover factor1 (Water and barren), land-cover factor2 (wetland and forest), organic matter content high, rock depth, available water content, stand age, elevation, and LAI drivers. These drivers were positively or negatively associated with biomass or water yield which significantly contributes to ecosystem interactions or tradeoff/synergies. Our study introduced a spatially-explicit modelling framework to analyze the effect of ecosystem drivers on forest ecosystem structure, function and provision of services. This integrated model approach facilitates multi-scale analyses of drivers and interactions at the local to regional scale.

A critique of the historical-fire-regime concept in conservation.

Prescribed fire is widely accepted as a conservation tool because fire is essential to the maintenance of native biodiversity in many terrestrial communities. Approaches to this land-management technique vary greatly among continents, and sharing knowledge internationally can inform application of prescribed fire worldwide. In North America, decisions about how and when to apply prescribed fire are typically based on the historical-fire-regime concept (HFRC), which holds that replicating the pattern of fires ignited by lightning or preindustrial humans best promotes native species in fire-prone regions. The HFRC rests on 3 assumptions: it is possible to infer historical fire regimes accurately; fire-suppressed communities are ecologically degraded; and reinstating historical fire regimes is the best course of action despite the global shift toward novel abiotic and biotic conditions. We examined the underpinnings of these assumptions by conducting a literature review on the use of historical fire regimes to inform the application of prescribed fire. We found that the practice of inferring historical fire regimes for entire regions or ecosystems often entails substantial uncertainty and can yield equivocal results; ecological outcomes of fire suppression are complex and may not equate to degradation, depending on the ecosystem and context; and habitat fragmentation, invasive species, and other modern factors can interact with fire to produce novel and in some cases negative ecological outcomes. It is therefore unlikely that all 3 assumptions will be fully upheld for any landscape in which prescribed fire is being applied. Although the HFRC is a valuable starting point, it should not be viewed as the sole basis for developing prescribed fire programs. Rather, fire prescriptions should also account for other specific, measurable ecological parameters on a case-by-case basis. To best achieve conservation goals, researchers should seek to understand contemporary fire-biota interactions across trophic levels, functional groups, spatial and temporal scales, and management contexts.

Ecosystem carbon density and allocation across a chronosequence of longleaf pine forests.

Forests can partially offset greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation, mainly through increases in live biomass. We quantified carbon (C) density in 20 managed longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) forests ranging in age from 5 to 118 years located across the southeastern United States and estimated above- and belowground C trajectories. Ecosystem C stock (all pools including soil C) and aboveground live tree C increased nonlinearly with stand age and the modeled asymptotic maxima were 168 Mg C/ha and 80 Mg C/ha, respectively. Accumulation of ecosystem C with stand age was driven mainly by increases in aboveground live tree C, which ranged from <1 Mg C/ha to 74 Mg C/ha and comprised <1% to 39% of ecosystem C. Live root C (sum of below-stump C, ground penetrating radar measurement of lateral root C, and live fine root C) increased with stand age and represented 4-22% of ecosystem C. Soil C was related to site index, but not to stand age, and made up 39-92% of ecosystem C. Live understory C, forest floor C, downed dead wood C, and standing dead wood C were small fractions of ecosystem C in these frequently burned stands. Stand age and site index accounted for 76% of the variation in ecosystem C among stands. The mean root-to-shoot ratio calculated as the average across all stands (excluding the grass-stage stand) was 0.54 (standard deviation of 0.19) and higher than reports for other conifers. Long-term accumulation of live tree C, combined with the larger role of belowground accumulation of lateral root C than in other forest types, indicates a role of longleaf pine forests in providing disturbance-resistant C storage that can balance the more rapid C accumulation and C removal associated with more intensively managed forests. Although other managed southern pine systems sequester more C over the short-term, we suggest that longleaf pine forests can play a meaningful role in regional forest C management.

Inconsistencies among secondary sources of Chukar Partridge (Alectoris chukar) introductions to the United States.

The propagule pressure hypothesis asserts that the number of individuals released is the key determinant of whether an introduction will succeed or not. It remains to be shown whether propagule pressure is more important than either species-level or site-level factors in determining the fate of an introduction. Studies claiming to show that propagule pressure is the primary determinant of introduction success must assume that the historical record as reported by secondary sources is complete and accurate. Here, examine a widely introduced game bird, the Chukar (Alectoris chukar), to the USA. We compare the records reported by two secondary sources (Long, 1981; Lever, 1987) to those in a primary source (Christensen, 1970) and to a recent study by Sol et al. (2012). Numerous inconsistencies exist in the records reported by Sol et al. (2012), Long (1981) and Lever (1987) when compared to the primary record of Christensen (1970). As reported by Christensen (1970), very large numbers of Chukars were released unsuccessfully in some states. Our results strongly imply that factors other than sheer numbers are more important. Site-to-site differences are the most likely explanation for the variation in success.

Modeling the Complex Impacts of Timber Harvests to Find Optimal Management Regimes for Amazon Tidal Floodplain Forests.

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region's ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

A comment on the role of propagule pressure in the establishment success of introduced birds.

In a recent paper, Cassey et al. (Oecologia 175: 417-428, 2014) presented a population model of establishment success among birds introduced to New Zealand. They found that net reproductive rate was more important than propagule pressure in three separate cases involving species that reflect life history type of three avian types. Although Cassey et al. (Oecologia 175: 417-428, 2014) claim this result was unexpected, in fact it supports previous studies that have questioned the role of propagule pressure in determining introduction outcomes.

A comparison of success rates of introduced passeriform birds in New Zealand, Australia and the United States.

In this study, we compiled lists of successful and unsuccessful passeriform introductions to nine sites in New Zealand, Australia and the United States. We limited our analysis to introductions during the 19th century to minimize potential variation in transport modes and habitat quality changes, such as those due to increasing urbanization. We compared introduction success rates at three levels. First we included all passeriforms introduced to any of the sites in the three locations, then we compared the fates of just those species with a European origin and finally we compared success rates of just the 13 species released into all three locations. We found that the pattern of success or failure differed significantly across the three locations: Passeriforms introduced by acclimatization organizations to the United States were significantly more likely to fail than those introduced to New Zealand or Australia. Several species that succeeded in either New Zealand or Australia failed in the United States, even after the introduction of seemingly sufficient numbers.

A framework for identifying carbon hotspots and forest management drivers.

Spatial analyses of ecosystem system services that are directly relevant to both forest management decision making and conservation in the subtropics are rare. Also, frameworks that identify and map carbon stocks and corresponding forest management drivers using available regional, national, and international-level forest inventory datasets could provide insights into key forest structural characteristics and management practices that are optimal for carbon storage. To address this need we used publicly available USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data and spatial analyses to develop a framework for mapping "carbon hotspots" (i.e. areas of significantly high tree and understory aboveground carbon stocks) across a range of forest types using the state of Florida, USA as an example. We also analyzed influential forest management variables (e.g. forest types, fire, hurricanes, tenure, management activities) using generalized linear mixed modeling to identify drivers associated with these hotspots. Most of the hotspots were located in the northern third of the state some in peri-urban areas, and there were no identifiable hotspots in South Florida. Forest silvicultural treatments (e.g. site preparation, thinning, logging, etc) were not significant predictors of hotspots. Forest types, site quality, and stand age were however significant predictors. Higher site quality and stand age increased the probability of forests being classified as a hotspot. Disturbance type and time since disturbance were not significant predictors in our analyses. This framework can use globally available forest inventory datasets to analyze and map ecosystems service provision areas and bioenergy supplies and identify forest management practices that optimize these services in forests.

The importance of multimodel projections to assess uncertainty in projections from simulation models.

Simulation models are increasingly used to gain insights regarding the long-term effect of both direct and indirect anthropogenic impacts on natural resources and to devise and evaluate policies that aim to minimize these effects. If the uncertainty from simulation model projections is not adequately quantified and reported, modeling results might be misleading, with potentially serious implications. A method is described, based on a nested simulation design associated with multimodel projections, that allows the partitioning of the overall uncertainty in model projections into a number of different sources of uncertainty: model stochasticity, starting conditions, parameter uncertainty, and uncertainty that originates from the use of key model assumptions. These sources of uncertainty are likely to be present in most simulation models. Using the forest dynamics model SYMFOR as a case study, it is shown that the uncertainty originated from the use of alternate modeling assumptions, a source of uncertainty seldom reported, can be the greatest source of uncertainty, accounting for 66-97% of the overall variance of the mean after 100 years of stand dynamics simulation. This implicitly reveals the great importance of these multimodel projections even when multiple models from independent research groups are not available. Finally, it is suggested that a weighted multimodel average (in which the weights are estimated from the data) might be substantially more precise than a simple multimodel average (equivalent to equal weights for all models) as models that strongly conflict with the data are given greatly reduced or even zero weights. The method of partitioning modeling uncertainty is likely to be useful for other simulation models, allowing for a better estimate of the uncertainty of model projections and allowing researchers to identify which data need to be collected to reduce this uncertainty.

Woody tissue maintenance respiration of four conifers in contrasting climates.

We estimate maintenance respiration for boles of four temperate conifers (ponderosa pine, western hemlock, red pine, and slash pine) from CO2 efflux measurements in autumn, when construction respiration is low or negligible. Maintenance respiration of stems was linearly related to sapwood volume for all species; at 10°C, respiration per unit sapwood volume ranged from 4.8 to 8.3 µmol CO2 m-3 s-1. For all sites combined, respiration increased exponentially with temperature (Q 10 =1.7, r 2=0.78). We estimate that maintenance respiration of aboveground woody tissues of these conifers consumes 52-162 g C m-2 y-1, or 5-13% of net daytime carbon assimilation annually. The fraction of annual net daytime carbon fixation used for stem maintenance respiration increased linearly with the average annual temperature of the site.