Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years.

A better understanding of the relative roles of internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) and anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to better project future hydrologic changes. Changes in the evaporative demand play a central role in this context, particularly in tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as the tropical savannah and semi-desertic biomes. Here we present a set of geochemical proxies in speleothems from a well-ventilated cave located in central-eastern Brazil which shows that the evaporative demand is no longer being met by precipitation, leading to a hydrological deficit. A marked change in the hydrologic balance in central-eastern Brazil, caused by a severe warming trend, can be identified, starting in the 1970s. Our findings show that the current aridity has no analog over the last 720 years. A detection and attribution study indicates that this trend is mostly driven by anthropogenic forcing and cannot be explained by natural factors alone. These results reinforce the premise of a severe long-term drought in the subtropics of eastern South America that will likely be further exacerbated in the future given its apparent connection to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Humid and cold forest connections in South America between the eastern Andes and the southern Atlantic coast during the LGM.

The presence of Andean plant genera in moist forests of the Brazilian Atlantic Coast has been historically hypothesized as the result of cross-continental migrations starting at the eastern Andean flanks. Here we test hypotheses of former connections between the Atlantic and Andean forests by examining distribution patterns of selected cool and moist-adapted plant arboreal taxa present in 54 South American pollen records of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), ca. 19-23 cal ka, known to occur in both plant domains. Pollen taxa studied include Araucaria, Drimys, Hedyosmum, Ilex, Myrsine, Podocarpus, Symplocos, Weinmannia, Myrtaceae, Ericaceae and Arecaceae. Past connectivity patterns between these two neotropical regions as well as individual ecological niches during the LGM were explored by cluster analysis of fossil assemblages and modern plant distributions. Additionally, we examined the ecological niche of 137 plant species with shared distributions between the Andes and coastal Brazil. Our results revealed five complex connectivity patterns for South American vegetation linking Andean, Amazonian and Atlantic Forests and one disjunction distribution in southern Chile. This study also provides a better understanding of vegetation cover on the large and shallow South American continental shelf that was exposed due to a global sea level drop.

Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia.

The long-term response of ancient societies to climate change has been a matter of global debate. Until recently, the lack of integrative studies using archaeological, palaeoecological and palaeoclimatological data prevented an evaluation of the relationship between climate change, distinct subsistence strategies and cultural transformations across the largest rainforest of the world, Amazonia. Here we review the most relevant cultural changes seen in the archaeological record of six different regions within Greater Amazonia during late pre-Columbian times. We compare the chronology of those cultural transitions with high-resolution regional palaeoclimate proxies, showing that, while some societies faced major reorganization during periods of climate change, others were unaffected and even flourished. We propose that societies with intensive, specialized land-use systems were vulnerable to transient climate change. In contrast, land-use systems that relied primarily on polyculture agroforestry, resulting in the formation of enriched forests and fertile Amazonian dark earth in the long term, were more resilient to climate change.