Improving network approaches to the study of complex social-ecological interdependencies.

Achieving effective, sustainable environmental governance requires a better understanding of the causes and consequences of the complex patterns of interdependencies connecting people and ecosystems within and across scales. Network approaches for conceptualizing and analyzing these interdependencies offer one promising solution. Here, we present two advances we argue are needed to further this area of research: (i) a typology of causal assumptions explicating the causal aims of any given network-centric study of social-ecological interdependencies; (ii) unifying research design considerations that facilitate conceptualizing exactly what is interdependent, through what types of relationships, and in relation to what kinds of environmental problems. The latter builds on the appreciation that many environmental problems draw from a set of core challenges that re-occur across contexts. We demonstrate how these advances combine into a comparative heuristic that facilitates leveraging case-specific findings of social-ecological interdependencies to generalizable, yet context-sensitive, theories based on explicit assumptions of causal relationships.

Negative relationships between species richness and temporal variability are common but weak in natural systems.

Effects of species diversity on population and community stability (or more precisely, the effects of species richness on temporal variability) have been studied for several decades, but there have been no large-scale tests in natural communities of predictions from theory. We used 91 data sets including plants, fish, small mammals, zooplankton, birds, and insects, to examine the relationship between species richness and temporal variability in populations and communities. Seventy-eight of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and population variability; 46 of these relationships were statistically significant. Only five of the 13 positive richness-population variability relationships were statistically significant. Similarly, 51 of 91 data sets showed a negative relationship between species richness and community variability; of these, 26 were statistically significant. Seven of the 40 positive richness-community-variability relationships were statistically significant. We were able to test transferability (i.e., the predictive ability of models for sites that are spatially distinct from sites that were used to build the models) for 69 of 91 data sets; 35 and 31 data sets were transferable at the population and community levels, respectively. Only four were positive at the population level, and two at the community level. We conclude that there is compelling evidence of a negative relationship between species richness and temporal variability for about one-half of the ecological communities we examined. However, species richness explained relatively little of the variability in population or community abundances and resulted in small improvements in predictive ability.

Effectiveness of Africa's tropical protected areas for maintaining forest cover.

The effectiveness of parks for forest conservation is widely debated in Africa, where increasing human pressure, insufficient funding, and lack of management capacity frequently place significant demands on forests. Tropical forests house a substantial portion of the world's remaining biodiversity and are heavily affected by anthropogenic activity. We analyzed park effectiveness at the individual (224 parks) and national (23 countries) level across Africa by comparing the extent of forest loss (as a proxy for deforestation) inside parks to matched unprotected control sites. Although significant geographical variation existed among parks, the majority of African parks had significantly less forest loss within their boundaries (e.g., Mahale Park had 34 times less forest loss within its boundary) than control sites. Accessibility was a significant driver of forest loss. Relatively inaccessible areas had a higher probability (odds ratio >1, p < 0.001) of forest loss but only in ineffective parks, and relatively accessible areas had a higher probability of forest loss but only in effective parks. Smaller parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than larger parks (T = -2.32, p < 0.05), and older parks less effectively prevented forest loss inside park boundaries than younger parks (F2,154 = -4.11, p < 0.001). Our analyses, the first individual and national assessment of park effectiveness across Africa, demonstrated the complexity of factors (such as geographical variation, accessibility, and park size and age) influencing the ability of a park to curb forest loss within its boundaries.

Empirical analysis suggests continuous and homogeneous circulation of Newcastle disease virus in a wide range of wild bird species in Africa.

Newcastle disease (ND) is one of the most important poultry diseases worldwide and can lead to annual losses of up to 80% of backyard chickens in Africa. All bird species are considered susceptible to ND virus (NDV) infection but little is known about the role that wild birds play in the epidemiology of the virus. We present a long-term monitoring of 9000 wild birds in four African countries. Overall, 3·06% of the birds were PCR-positive for NDV infection, with prevalence ranging from 0% to 10% depending on the season, the site and the species considered. Our study shows that ND is circulating continuously and homogeneously in a large range of wild bird species. Several genotypes of NDV circulate concurrently in different species and are phylogenetically closely related to strains circulating in local domestic poultry, suggesting that wild birds may play several roles in the epidemiology of different NDV strains in Africa. We recommend that any strategic plan aiming at controlling ND in Africa should take into account the potential role of the local wild bird community in the transmission of the disease.

Evaluating the effectiveness of a web-based intervention to promote mental wellbeing in women and partners following miscarriage, using a modified patient preference trial design: an external pilot.

This article describes an external pilot study of a modified 'partially randomised patient preference' trial comparing a web-based intervention (designed to promote mental wellbeing) with standard care post-miscarriage. Assessment comprised an online administration of baseline measures with follow-up at 3 months following registration. Baseline data were obtained from 60 women (and seven partners) post-discharge from one of two Early Pregnancy Assessment Units. 'Intention to treat' versus a 'per protocol' sensitivity analysis showed the effects of introducing a 'preference' option post-randomisation, and highlights the benefits compared with a randomised controlled trial design to enable a robust evaluation of the website in promoting mental wellbeing after miscarriage.

Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management.

The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning.

Understanding the ecological drivers of avian influenza virus infection in wildfowl: a continental-scale study across Africa.

Despite considerable effort for surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza viruses (AIVs), empirical investigations of ecological drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds are still scarce. Here we used a continental-scale dataset, collected in tropical wetlands of 15 African countries, to test the relative roles of a range of ecological factors on patterns of AIV prevalence in wildfowl. Seasonal and geographical variations in prevalence were positively related to the local density of the wildfowl community and to the wintering period of Eurasian migratory birds in Africa. The predominant influence of wildfowl density with no influence of climatic conditions suggests, in contrast to temperate regions, a predominant role for inter-individual transmission rather than transmission via long-lived virus persisting in the environment. Higher prevalences were found in Anas species than in non-Anas species even when we account for differences in their foraging behaviour (primarily dabbling or not) or their geographical origin (Eurasian or Afro-tropical), suggesting the existence of intrinsic differences between wildfowl taxonomic groups in receptivity to infection. Birds were found infected as often in oropharyngeal as in cloacal samples, but rarely for both types of sample concurrently, indicating that both respiratory and digestive tracts may be important for AIV replication.

The genetic causes of the sequential occurrence of multiple primary malignancies in a young woman--5 years on.

The finding of three primary gynaecological malignancies in a young woman attending our unit was documented in 2001. We provide an update on this report as new events have prompted further discussion on the role of clinical guidelines in cancer management. The discovery of a genetic predisposition demonstrates the need for multidisciplinary input and heightened awareness in similar cases while the importance of treating each patient as an individual is emphasized.

The emotional burden of miscarriage for women and their partners: trajectories of anxiety and depression over 13 months.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the trajectories of anxiety and depression in women and in their partners over 13 months after miscarriage. DESIGN: A prospective study with follow up at 6 and 13 months after miscarriage. SETTING: Three Scottish Early Pregnancy Assessment Units. SAMPLE: Of the 1443 eligible individuals approached, 686 (48.3%) consented to participate (432 women; 254 men). Complete data were obtained from 273 women and 133 men at baseline, 6, and 13 months. METHODS: On completion of the management of the index miscarriage, eligible and consenting women and men underwent an initial assessment comprising a semi-structured interview and a standardised self-report questionnaire. The latter was readministered at the follow-up assessments. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), a reliable and valid measure of general psychopathology for use in nonpsychiatric samples. RESULTS: Compared with depression, anxiety was overall the greater clinical burden. Over the 13-month period, women reported higher levels of anxiety and depression than men. Over time, a significantly greater level of adjustment was reported by women particularly with regards to the resolution of anxiety symptoms. The effect of time on HADS scores in either gender was similar between subgroups of socio-demographic and clinical factors. CONCLUSIONS: These findings verify that early pregnancy loss represents a significant emotional burden for women, and to some extent for men, especially with regards to anxiety. For many, the detrimental effects of miscarriage are enduring and display a complex course of resolution. These findings are discussed in terms of their clinical implications for early identification and management.

Compensatory dynamics are rare in natural ecological communities.

In population ecology, there has been a fundamental controversy about the relative importance of competition-driven (density-dependent) population regulation vs. abiotic influences such as temperature and precipitation. The same issue arises at the community level; are population sizes driven primarily by changes in the abundances of cooccurring competitors (i.e., compensatory dynamics), or do most species have a common response to environmental factors? Competitive interactions have had a central place in ecological theory, dating back to Gleason, Volterra, Hutchison and MacArthur, and, more recently, Hubbell's influential unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. If competitive interactions are important in driving year-to-year fluctuations in abundance, then changes in the abundance of one species should generally be accompanied by compensatory changes in the abundances of others. Thus, one necessary consequence of strong compensatory forces is that, on average, species within communities will covary negatively. Here we use measures of community covariance to assess the prevalence of negative covariance in 41 natural communities comprising different taxa at a range of spatial scales. We found that species in natural communities tended to covary positively rather than negatively, the opposite of what would be expected if compensatory dynamics were important. These findings suggest that abiotic factors such as temperature and precipitation are more important than competitive interactions in driving year-to-year fluctuations in species abundance within communities.

Communicating the uncertainty in research findings: confidence intervals.

Confidence intervals (CIs) are an effective means of quantifying the uncertainty inherent in study results. Alongside considerations of possible sources of bias in the study design, CIs describe the extent to which study results are applicable in general, beyond the participants involved in the study. We discuss CI use and interpretation for some commonly encountered study designs. We highlight a close relation between CIs and p-values, such that presentation of 95% CIs can make it redundant to state whether a corresponding p-value is less than 0.05. We encourage researchers to use CIs to present their research findings, rather than relying on p-values alone.

On the relevance of abundance and spatial pattern for interpretations of host-parasite association data.

The quantification of host-parasite associations from field data is a fundamental step towards understanding host-parasite and host-parasite-pathogen dynamics. For parasites that are not rigid host specialists, exemplified in this paper by ticks, the interpretation of host-parasite association data is difficult. Interpretations of tick collection records have largely assumed that off-host collection records offer a valid basis from which to make claims about the host specificity or generality of tick species. A simple simulation analysis of rudimentary tick-host interactions in a hypothetical 50 x 50-cell habitat demonstrates that perceptions of tick-host relationships can be strongly biased by spatial patterns. Regardless of their true level of host specificity or generality, it seems that: (i) more abundant ticks will be perceived as generalists, while rarer species will be considered specialists; and (ii) tick species that have patchy, strongly aggregated distributions will be more likely to be perceived as host specialists than species that have more dispersed or uniform distributions. Since all available evidence suggests that abundances and spatial patterns vary between tick species, there is no way of assessing the true validity of claims about host specificity without first undertaking detailed research on the relative abundances and spatial and temporal patterns of both tick and host distributions.

Female urodynamics and lower urinary tract infection.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of unsuspected urinary tract infection (UTI) before cystometry, to evaluate reports of a greater tendency to abnormal cystometry in the presence of asymptomatic bacteriuria, and to determine the incidence of iatrogenic significant bacteriuria after cystometry. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A prospective study was carried out in the gynaecology department of a district general hospital in collaboration with the medical microbiology department of a university teaching hospital. The period of investigation was 1 year and the study population was a sample of women undergoing urodynamic investigations during this period. Data were collected on age, menopausal status, parity, cystometric diagnosis and voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: In all, 117 patients provided a urine sample before cystometry; 12 of these patients had a positive culture, giving an incidence of 10.3% for unsuspected asymptomatic bacteriuria before cystometry. There was a significant association between age and the presence of UTI before cystometry (P = 0.003) and between this UTI and sensory urgency (P = 0.01). There was no similar significant association with detrusor instability or genuine stress incontinence. Nineteen of the 97 patients who had negative bacteriology before cystometry had a positive urine culture afterward. Compared with patients who had a negative sample, there was no significant association with age, parity, menopausal status, abnormal cystometry or voiding dysfunction. CONCLUSION: These results do not support a policy of universal screening for bacteriuria before urodynamic investigation. Asymptomatic bacteriuria did not influence the urodynamic outcome except in patients with sensory urgency. However, we recommend that screening and treatment be considered individually in older women who are being investigated for irritative bladder symptoms. About 20% of the present patients developed UTI after the urodynamic investigation. This information should be included in the counselling before urodynamic investigation and should be incorporated into the patient information leaflet as part of good clinical practice.

Invasive adenocarcinoma of the vagina following surgery for adenocarcinoma in situ of the cervix--recurrence or implantation?

A 51-year-old woman underwent cervical conization for severe glandular abnormal cells. Histology noted adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) with incomplete excision margins. Four months later, hysterectomy revealed no residual disease. Six months subsequently she developed invasive adenocarcinoma of the upper vagina. This report documents the unusual behavior of AIS and its management difficulties.