Seismic source analysis of the destructive earthquake November 21, 2022, Mw 5.6 Cianjur (Indonesia) from relocated aftershock.

A destructive shallow earthquake with a magnitude of 5.6 struck Cianjur, West Java, Indonesia on November 21, 2022. This earthquake resulted in 602 casualties and the collapse of over 67,504 residences. The day after the mainshock, we deployed 19 temporary seismic stations to monitor aftershocks for a period of 30 days. We manually picked arrival times for 4499 P-waves and 3419 S-waves and determined locations for 514 events. Following the velocity model update, phase refinement through waveform cross correlation, and relocation using double-difference methods, we were able to determine 442 well-defined hypocenters of the aftershocks. We identified two clusters of aftershocks: one in the NNW-SSE direction, with a length of about 8 km, and another in the WSW-ENE direction, with a length of around 6 km. The seismogenic zone of these clusters ranges from a depth of 3 to 13 km. Our interpretation suggests that these clusters may indicate a conjugate fault. It is possible that the mainshock (Mw5.6) Cianjur earthquake on November 21, 2022 occurred on the WSW-ENE direction with sinistral movement.

3-D shallow shear velocity structure of the Jakarta Basin from transdimensional ambient noise tomography.

Situated on the northern coast of the Indonesian island of Java, Jakarta and its metropolitan area (Greater Jakarta) are subject to significant earthquake hazards from a subduction zone south of Java and nearby active crustal faults. The seismic risk may be even higher because Greater Jakarta resides on a sedimentary basin filled with thick Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments. A comprehensive study of Jakarta Basin's properties and geometry is important for creating robust seismic hazard and risk assessments. The main objective of this study is to develop a 3-D model of Jakarta Basin's shallow shear-wave velocity (VS ) structure and improve on previous models that did not cover the basin edge due to the extent of data coverage. Between April and October 2018, we deployed a new temporary seismic network to extend the spatial coverage beyond that of a previous deployment in 2013, and sampled 143 locations through sequential deployments of 30 broad-band sensors covering Jakarta and its adjacent areas. We conducted a 2-stage transdimensional Bayesian inversion of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves derived from seismic noise. To begin, we applied tomography and constructed 2-D phase velocity maps for periods 1-5 s. Then, at each point in a regular grid defined on these maps, we invert each dispersion curve into 1-D depth profiles of VS . Finally, these profiles at gridpoints with ∼2 km spacing are interpolated to form a pseudo-3-D VS model. Our results reveal the edge of the Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments along the south. Also, we resolve a basement offset across south Jakarta that we suggest may be related to the western extension of the Baribis Fault (alternatively, the West Java Backarc Thrust). We recommend using this 3-D model of the Jakarta Basin for scenario earthquake ground motion simulations. Such simulations would help establish how important it might be to re-assess seismic hazard and risk in Greater Jakarta so that basin resonance and amplification are considered.

From offshore to onshore probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment via efficient Monte Carlo sampling.

Offshore Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (offshore PTHAs) provide large-scale analyses of earthquake-tsunami frequencies and uncertainties in the deep ocean, but do not provide high-resolution onshore tsunami hazard information as required for many risk-management applications. To understand the implications of an offshore PTHA for the onshore hazard at any site, in principle the tsunami inundation should be simulated locally for every earthquake scenario in the offshore PTHA. In practice this is rarely feasible due to the computational expense of inundation models, and the large number of scenarios in offshore PTHAs. Monte Carlo methods offer a practical and rigorous alternative for approximating the onshore hazard, using a random subset of scenarios. The resulting Monte Carlo errors can be quantified and controlled, enabling high-resolution onshore PTHAs to be implemented at a fraction of the computational cost. This study develops efficient Monte Carlo approaches for offshore-to-onshore PTHA. Modelled offshore PTHA wave heights are used to preferentially sample scenarios that have large offshore waves near an onshore site of interest. By appropriately weighting the scenarios, the Monte Carlo errors are reduced without introducing bias. The techniques are demonstrated in a high-resolution onshore PTHA for the island of Tongatapu in Tonga, using the 2018 Australian PTHA as the offshore PTHA, while considering only thrust earthquake sources on the Kermadec-Tonga trench. The efficiency improvements are equivalent to using 4-18 times more random scenarios, as compared with stratified-sampling by magnitude, which is commonly used for onshore PTHA. The greatest efficiency improvements are for rare, large tsunamis, and for calculations that represent epistemic uncertainties in the tsunami hazard. To facilitate the control of Monte Carlo errors in practical applications, this study also provides analytical techniques for estimating the errors both before and after inundation simulations are conducted. Before inundation simulation, this enables a proposed Monte Carlo sampling scheme to be checked, and potentially improved, at minimal computational cost. After inundation simulation, it enables the remaining Monte Carlo errors to be quantified at onshore sites, without additional inundation simulations. In combination these techniques enable offshore PTHAs to be rigorously transformed into onshore PTHAs, with quantification of epistemic uncertainties, while controlling Monte Carlo errors.

The role of OPG/RANKL in the pathogenesis of diabetic cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease is the leading cause of mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. A major factor in the pathogenesis of CV disease is vascular calcification (VC), which is accelerated in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Calcification of the vessel wall contributes to vascular stiffness and left ventricular hypertrophy whereas intimal calcification may predispose to plaque rupture and CV death. The pathogenesis of VC is complex but appears to be regulated by the osteoprotegerin (OPG)/receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand (RANKL) signaling pathway, which is involved in bone remodeling. Within the bone, OPG prevents RANKL from binding to receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB and inhibiting bone resorption. Outside of the bone, the clinical significance of OPG blocking RANKL is not well understood, but OPG knockout mice that lack OPG develop early and severe VC. This minireview outlines some of the research on OPG/RANKL in the pathogenesis of VC and discusses potential therapies, which may reduce VC and CV burden in humans.

The potential for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes in the northern Bay of Bengal.

The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 came as a surprise to most of the earth science community. Although it is now widely recognized that the risk of another giant earthquake is high off central Sumatra, just east of the 2004 earthquake, there seems to be relatively little concern about the subduction zone to the north, in the northern Bay of Bengal along the coast of Myanmar. Here I show that similar indicators suggest a high potential for giant earthquakes along the coast of Myanmar. These indicators include the tectonic environment, which is similar to other subduction zones that experience giant megathrust earthquakes, stress and crustal strain observations, which indicate that the seismogenic zone is locked, and historical earthquake activity, which indicates that giant tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred there in the past. These are all consistent with active subduction in the Myanmar subduction zone and I suggest that the seismogenic zone extends beneath the Bengal Fan. I conclude therefore that giant earthquakes probably occur off the coast of Myanmar, and that a large and vulnerable population is thereby exposed to a significant earthquake and tsunami hazard.

Splay fault branching along the Nankai subduction zone.

Seismic reflection profiles reveal steeply landward-dipping splay faults in the rupture area of the magnitude (M) 8.1 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai subduction zone. These splay faults branch upward from the plate-boundary interface (that is, the subduction zone) at a depth of approximately 10 kilometers, approximately 50 to 55 kilometers landward of the trough axis, breaking through the upper crustal plate. Slip on the active splay fault may be an important mechanism that accommodates the elastic strain caused by relative plate motion.