An Assessment of the Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of the Glacial Relict Woodpecker Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus.

The Three-Toed Woodpecker Picoides tridactylus is a rare and endangered woodpecker on the Balkan Peninsula. Despite being widely distributed in Northern Europe, its distribution on the Balkan Peninsula is limited to high-altitude forest habitats, where it represents a glacial relict. Assessing the climate change impacts on its distribution can be crucial for improving the conservation and future survival of this specialist species on the Balkan Peninsula. We used species distribution modelling (SDM) to identify its potential distribution in the past (last interglacial and last glacial maximum), present, and future (2050 and 2070). Our results indicate that this species had the greatest distribution during the last glacial maximum, after which its distribution contracted to areas where suitable environment persisted (high altitudes). The largest territory of the Balkan Peninsula has an unsuitable environment for the species to inhabit, while highly suitable habitats have the smallest share in the total area of suitable habitats. All future models show a decrease in the area of suitable habitats compared with the current period, indicating that global warming has a negative effect on the distribution of the species. We recommend that conservation activities must be of greater extent to ensure the species' survival in the Balkans.

Prediction of tropospheric ozone concentration using artificial neural networks at traffic and background urban locations in Novi Sad, Serbia.

In this paper, we described generation and performances of feedforward neural network models that could be used for a day ahead predictions of the daily maximum 1-h ozone concentration (1hO3) and 8-h average ozone concentration (8hO3) at one traffic and one background station in the urban area of Novi Sad, Serbia. The six meteorological variables for the day preceding the forecast and forecast day, ozone concentrations in the day preceding the forecast, the number of the day of the year, and the number of the weekday for which ozone prediction was performed were utilized as inputs. The three-layer perceptron neural network models with the best performance were chosen by testing with different numbers of neurons in the hidden layer and different activation functions. The mean bias error, mean absolute error, root mean squared error, correlation coefficient, and index of agreement or Willmott's Index for the validation data for 1hO3 forecasting were 0.005 µg m-3, 12.149 µg m-3, 15.926 µg m-3, 0.988, and 0.950, respectively, for the traffic station (Dnevnik), and - 0.565 µg m-3, 10.101 µg m-3, 12.962 µg m-3, 0.911, and 0.953, respectively, for the background station (Liman). For 8hO3 forecasting, statistical indicators were - 1.126 µg m-3, 10.614 µg m-3, 12.962 µg m-3, 0.910, and 0.948 respectively for the station Dnevnik and - 0.001 µg m-3, 8.574 µg m-3, 10.741 µg m-3, 0.936, and 0.966, respectively, for the station Liman. According to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, there is no significant difference between measured and predicted data. Models showed a good performance in forecasting days with the high values over a certain threshold.

Micro- and nanostructures of iridescent wing scales in purple emperor butterflies (Lepidoptera: Apatura ilia and A. iris).

Apatura ilia (Denis and Schiffermüller, 1775) and A. iris (Linnaeus, 1758) are fascinating butterflies found in the Palaearctic ecozone (excepting the north of Africa). The wings of these insects are covered with a great number of two types of scales positioned like roof tiles. Type I scales are on the surface, while type II scales are situated below them. The structural color of the type I scales is recognized only on the dorsal side of both the fore and hind wings of the males of the aforementioned species. Both types of scales are responsible for pigment color of the wings, but iridescence is observed only in the type I scales. The brilliant structural color is due to a multilayer structure. The features of the scales, their dimensions and fine structure were obtained using scanning electron microscopy. Cross sections of the scales were then analyzed by transmission electron microscopy. The scales of the "normal" and clytie forms of A. ilia have a different nanostructure, but are of the same type. A similar type of structure, but with a different morphology, was also noticed in A. iris. The scales of the analyzed species resemble the scales of tropical Morpho butterflies.