Ground truthing global-scale model estimates of groundwater recharge across Africa.

Groundwater is an essential resource for natural and human systems throughout the world and the rates at which aquifers are recharged constrain sustainable levels of consumption. However, recharge estimates from global-scale models regularly disagree with each other and are rarely compared to ground-based estimates. We compare long-term mean annual recharge and recharge ratio (annual recharge/annual precipitation) estimates from eight global models with over 100 ground-based estimates in Africa. We find model estimates of annual recharge and recharge ratio disagree significantly across most of Africa. Furthermore, similarity to ground-based estimates between models also varies considerably and inconsistently throughout the different landscapes of Africa. Models typically showed both positive and negative biases in most landscapes, which made it challenging to pinpoint how recharge prediction by global-scale models can be improved. However, global-scale models which reflected stronger climatic controls on their recharge estimates compared more favourably to ground-based estimates. Given this significant uncertainty in recharge estimates from current global-scale models, we stress that groundwater recharge prediction across Africa, for both research investigations and operational management, should not rely upon estimates from a single model but instead consider the distribution of estimates from different models. Our work will be of particular interest to decision makers and researchers who consider using such recharge outputs to make groundwater governance decisions or investigate groundwater security especially under the potential impact of climate change.

Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1° resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present.

Challenges exist for assessing the impacts of climate and climate change on the hydrological cycle on local and regional scales, and in turn on water resources, food, energy, and natural hazards. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) represents atmospheric demand for water, which is required at high spatial and temporal resolutions to compute actual evapotranspiration and thus close the water balance near the land surface for many such applications, but there are currently no available high-resolution datasets of PET. Here we develop an hourly PET dataset (hPET) for the global land surface at 0.1° spatial resolution, based on output from the recently developed ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset, over the period 1981 to present. We show how hPET compares to other available global PET datasets, over common spatiotemporal resolutions and time frames, with respect to spatial patterns of climatology and seasonal variations for selected humid and arid locations across the globe. We provide the data for users to employ for multiple applications to explore diurnal and seasonal variations in evaporative demand for water.

Observed controls on resilience of groundwater to climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa.

Groundwater in sub-Saharan Africa supports livelihoods and poverty alleviation1,2, maintains vital ecosystems, and strongly influences terrestrial water and energy budgets3. Yet the hydrological processes that govern groundwater recharge and sustainability-and their sensitivity to climatic variability-are poorly constrained4,5. Given the absence of firm observational constraints, it remains to be seen whether model-based projections of decreased water resources in dry parts of the region4 are justified. Here we show, through analysis of multidecadal groundwater hydrographs across sub-Saharan Africa, that levels of aridity dictate the predominant recharge processes, whereas local hydrogeology influences the type and sensitivity of precipitation-recharge relationships. Recharge in some humid locations varies by as little as five per cent (by coefficient of variation) across a wide range of annual precipitation values. Other regions, by contrast, show roughly linear precipitation-recharge relationships, with precipitation thresholds (of roughly ten millimetres or less per day) governing the initiation of recharge. These thresholds tend to rise as aridity increases, and recharge in drylands is more episodic and increasingly dominated by focused recharge through losses from ephemeral overland flows. Extreme annual recharge is commonly associated with intense rainfall and flooding events, themselves often driven by large-scale climate controls. Intense precipitation, even during years of lower overall precipitation, produces some of the largest years of recharge in some dry subtropical locations. Our results therefore challenge the 'high certainty' consensus regarding decreasing water resources4 in such regions of sub-Saharan Africa. The potential resilience of groundwater to climate variability in many areas that is revealed by these precipitation-recharge relationships is essential for informing reliable predictions of climate-change impacts and adaptation strategies.

Global analysis reveals climatic controls on the oxygen isotope composition of cave drip water.

The oxygen isotope composition of speleothems is a widely used proxy for past climate change. Robust use of this proxy depends on understanding the relationship between precipitation and cave drip water δ18O. Here, we present the first global analysis, based on data from 163 drip sites, from 39 caves on five continents, showing that drip water δ18O is most similar to the amount-weighted precipitation δ18O where mean annual temperature (MAT) is < 10 °C. By contrast, for seasonal climates with MAT > 10 °C and < 16 °C, drip water δ18O records the recharge-weighted δ18O. This implies that the δ18O of speleothems (formed in near isotopic equilibrium) are most likely to directly reflect meteoric precipitation in cool climates only. In warmer and drier environments, speleothems will have a seasonal bias toward the precipitation δ18O of recharge periods and, in some cases, the extent of evaporative fractionation of stored karst water.

20,000 years of societal vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in southwest Asia.

The Fertile Crescent, its hilly flanks and surrounding drylands has been a critical region for studying how climate has influenced societal change, and this review focuses on the region over the last 20,000 years. The complex social, economic, and environmental landscapes in the region today are not new phenomena and understanding their interactions requires a nuanced, multidisciplinary understanding of the past. This review builds on a history of collaboration between the social and natural palaeoscience disciplines. We provide a multidisciplinary, multiscalar perspective on the relevance of past climate, environmental, and archaeological research in assessing present day vulnerabilities and risks for the populations of southwest Asia. We discuss the complexity of palaeoclimatic data interpretation, particularly in relation to hydrology, and provide an overview of key time periods of palaeoclimatic interest. We discuss the critical role that vegetation plays in the human-climate-environment nexus and discuss the implications of the available palaeoclimate and archaeological data, and their interpretation, for palaeonarratives of the region, both climatically and socially. We also provide an overview of how modelling can improve our understanding of past climate impacts and associated change in risk to societies. We conclude by looking to future work, and identify themes of "scale" and "seasonality" as still requiring further focus. We suggest that by appreciating a given locale's place in the regional hydroscape, be it an archaeological site or palaeoenvironmental archive, more robust links to climate can be made where appropriate and interpretations drawn will demand the resolution of factors acting across multiple scales. This article is categorized under:Human Water > Water as Imagined and RepresentedScience of Water > Water and Environmental ChangeWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems.

Towards an integrated understanding of how micro scale processes shape groundwater ecosystem functions.

Micro scale processes are expected to have a fundamental role in shaping groundwater ecosystems and yet they remain poorly understood and under-researched. In part, this is due to the fact that sampling is rarely carried out at the scale at which microorganisms, and their grazers and predators, function and thus we lack essential information. While set within a larger scale framework in terms of geochemical features, supply with energy and nutrients, and exchange intensity and dynamics, the micro scale adds variability, by providing heterogeneous zones at the micro scale which enable a wider range of redox reactions. Here we outline how understanding micro scale processes better may lead to improved appreciation of the range of ecosystems functions taking place at all scales. Such processes are relied upon in bioremediation and we demonstrate that ecosystem modelling as well as engineering measures have to take into account, and use, understanding at the micro scale. We discuss the importance of integrating faunal processes and computational appraisals in research, in order to continue to secure sustainable water resources from groundwater.

Highway deicing salt dynamic runoff to surface water and subsequent infiltration to groundwater during severe UK winters.

Dynamic impact to the water environment of deicing salt application at a major highway (motorway) interchange in the UK is quantitatively evaluated for two recent severe UK winters. The contaminant transport pathway studied allowed controls on dynamic highway runoff and storm-sewer discharge to a receiving stream and its subsequent leakage to an underlying sandstone aquifer, including possible contribution to long-term chloride increases in supply wells, to be evaluated. Logged stream electrical-conductivity (EC) to estimate chloride concentrations, stream flow, climate and motorway salt application data were used to assess salt fate. Stream loading was responsive to salt applications and climate variability influencing salt release. Chloride (via EC) was predicted to exceed the stream Environmental Quality Standard (250mg/l) for 33% and 18% of the two winters. Maximum stream concentrations (3500mg/l, 15% sea water salinity) were ascribed to salt-induced melting and drainage of highway snowfall without dilution from, still frozen, catchment water. Salt persistance on the highway under dry-cold conditions was inferred from stream observations of delayed salt removal. Streambed and stream-loss data demonstrated chloride infiltration could occur to the underlying aquifer with mild and severe winter stream leakage estimated to account for 21 to 54% respectively of the 70t of increased chloride (over baseline) annually abstracted by supply wells. Deicing salt infiltration lateral to the highway alongside other urban/natural sources were inferred to contribute the shortfall. Challenges in quantifying chloride mass/fluxes (flow gauge accuracy at high flows, salt loading from other roads, weaker chloride-EC correlation at low concentrations), may be largely overcome by modest investment in enhanced data acquisition or minor approach modification. The increased understanding of deicing salt dynamic loading to the water environment obtained is relevant to improved groundwater resource management, highway salt application practice, surface-water - ecosystem management, and decision making on highway drainage to ground.

A spring forward for hominin evolution in East Africa.

Groundwater is essential to modern human survival during drought periods. There is also growing geological evidence of springs associated with stone tools and hominin fossils in the East African Rift System (EARS) during a critical period for hominin evolution (from 1.8 Ma). However it is not known how vulnerable these springs may have been to climate variability and whether groundwater availability may have played a part in human evolution. Recent interdisciplinary research at Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, has documented climate fluctuations attributable to astronomic forcing and the presence of paleosprings directly associated with archaeological sites. Using palaeogeological reconstruction and groundwater modelling of the Olduvai Gorge paleo-catchment, we show how spring discharge was likely linked to East African climate variability of annual to Milankovitch cycle timescales. Under decadal to centennial timescales, spring flow would have been relatively invariant providing good water resource resilience through long droughts. For multi-millennial periods, modelled spring flows lag groundwater recharge by 100 s to 1000 years. The lag creates long buffer periods allowing hominins to adapt to new habitats as potable surface water from rivers or lakes became increasingly scarce. Localised groundwater systems are likely to have been widespread within the EARS providing refugia and intense competition during dry periods, thus being an important factor in natural selection and evolution, as well as a vital resource during hominin dispersal within and out of Africa.

A field and modeling study of fractured rock permeability reduction using microbially induced calcite precipitation.

Microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP) offers an attractive alternative to traditional grouting technologies for creating barriers to groundwater flow and containing subsurface contamination, but has only thus far been successfully demonstrated at the laboratory scale and predominantly in porous media. We present results of the first field experiments applying MICP to reduce fractured rock permeability in the subsurface. Initially, the ureolytic bacterium, Sporosarcina pasteurii, was fixed in the fractured rock. Subsequent injection of cementing fluid comprising calcium chloride and urea resulted in precipitation of large quantities (approximately 750 g) of calcite; significant reduction in the transmissivity of a single fracture over an area of several m(2) was achieved in around 17 h of treatment. A novel numerical model is also presented which simulates the field data well by coupling flow and bacterial and solute reactive transport processes including feedback due to aperture reduction via calcite precipitation. The results show that MICP can be successfully manipulated under field conditions to reduce the permeability of fractured rock and suggest that an MICP-based technique, informed by numerical models, may form the basis of viable solutions to aid pollution mitigation.

The legacy of chlorinated solvents in the Birmingham aquifer, UK: observations spanning three decades and the challenge of future urban groundwater development.

Licensed abstraction well data collected during 1986-2008 from a total of 77 wells mainly located at industrial sites combined with historic land use data from 1975 has allowed insight into the legacy of chlorinated solvent contamination in the Birmingham aquifer that underlies the UK's second largest city. This legacy, expected to be reasonably symptomatic of those occurring in other urban aquifers, was characterised by: dominance of parent solvents, particularly TCE (trichloroethene) that widely exceeded drinking-water quality criteria; greater TCE occurrence in wells in proximity to increased historic land use by the metal/engineering solvent-user industry (the relationship providing a first-pass indicator of future resource development potential); regional groundwater vulnerability controls; well abstraction changes (over months to decades) influential of observed concentration transients and anticipated plume capture or release; persistence of contamination over decades (with less soluble PCE (perchloroethene) showing increased persistence relative to TCE) that was reasonably ascribed to slow contaminant release from DNAPL (dense non-aqueous phase liquid) sources and, or low permeability layers; presence of dechlorination products arising from solvent (bio)degradation, although this key attenuation process appeared to have moderate to weak influence regionally on plumes; and, inadvertent, but significant solvent mass removal from the aquifer by industrial abstractions. Key challenges to realising future urban groundwater development were identified based on the observed legacy and well capture zone simulations. Despite the extensive contamination of the aquifer, it should still be possible to develop wells of high (several megalitres per day) capacity for drinking water supply (or other lower grade uses) without the requirement for solvent treatment. In those areas with higher risk of contamination, our dataset, together with application of emergent risk assessment approaches (that our dataset may serve to validate), could be used to inform potential abstractors as to whether solvent treatment is likely to be required at a particular abstraction site with time. Challenges identified that were relevant to the future development of Birmingham and urban aquifers more generally include the adequacy of groundwater quality monitoring data and uncertainties in contaminant source terms, abstraction well capture zone predictions and plume natural attenuation, in particular degradation rates. The study endorses that despite significant solvent contamination encountered, strategies can, and need, to be increasingly found to reclaim urban aquifer resources and more sustainably meet urban water demands.