Island medicine longitudinal cohort study: Rapid rise in chronic kidney disease in rural and remote communities.

AIM: To determine the change in incidence and prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in rural and remote communities over the last decade. METHODS: We examined the change in age-standardized incidence and prevalence in Tasmania between 2010 and 2020, using a linked dataset that included any adult with a creatinine test taken in a community laboratory during the study period (n = 581 513; 87.8% of the state's adult population). We defined CKD as two measures of eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2, at least 3 months apart. RESULTS: State-wide age-standardized prevalence of CKD increased by 28% in the decade to 2020, from 516 to 659 per 10 000 population. Prevalence in men increased 31.3% and women 24.8%. The greatest increase in age-standardized prevalence was seen in rural or remote communities with an increase of 36.6% overall, but with considerable variation by community (range + 0.4% to +88.3%). The increase in the actual number of people with CKD in the decade to 2020 was 67%, with the number of women increasing by 58% and men by 79%. CONCLUSION: The age-standardized prevalence of CKD in rural and remote regions has increased considerably over the past decade, likely compounded by limited access to primary and secondary healthcare. These findings highlight the need to ensure healthcare resources are directed to areas of greatest need.

The kidney failure risk equation predicts kidney failure: Validation in an Australian cohort.

AIMS: Predicting progression to kidney failure for patients with chronic kidney disease is essential for patient and clinicians' management decisions, patient prognosis, and service planning. The Tangri et al Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) was developed to predict the outcome of kidney failure. The KFRE has not been independently validated in an Australian Cohort. METHODS: Using data linkage of the Tasmanian Chronic Kidney Disease study (CKD.TASlink) and the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA), we externally validated the KFRE. We validated the 4, 6, and 8-variable KFRE at both 2 and 5 years. We assessed model fit (goodness of fit), discrimination (Harell's C statistic), and calibration (observed vs predicted survival). RESULTS: There were 18 170 in the cohort with 12 861 participants with 2 years and 8182 with 5 years outcomes. Of these 2607 people died and 285 progressed to kidney replacement therapy. The KFRE has excellent discrimination with C statistics of 0.96-0.98 at 2 years and 0.95-0.96 at 5 years. The calibration was adequate with well-performing Brier scores (0.004-0.01 at 2 years, 0.01-0.03 at 5 years) however the calibration curves, whilst adequate, indicate that predicted outcomes are systematically worse than observed. CONCLUSION: This external validation study demonstrates the KFRE performs well in an Australian population and can be used by clinicians and service planners for individualised risk prediction.