Fisher-Shannon Investigation of the Effect of Nonlinearity of Discrete Langevin Model on Behavior of Extremes in Generated Time Series.

Diverse forms of nonlinearity within stochastic equations give rise to varying dynamics in processes, which may influence the behavior of extreme values. This study focuses on two nonlinear models of the discrete Langevin equation: one with a fixed diffusion function (M1) and the other with a fixed marginal distribution (M2), both characterized by a nonlinearity parameter. Extremes are defined according to the run theory with thresholds based on percentiles. The behavior of inter-extreme times and run lengths is examined by employing Fisher's Information Measure and the Shannon Entropy. Our findings reveal a clear relationship between the entropic and informational measures and the nonlinearity of model M1-these measures decrease as the nonlinearity parameter increases. Similar relationships are evident for the M2 model, albeit to a lesser extent, even though the background data's marginal distribution remains unaffected by this parameter. As thresholds increase, both the values of Fisher's Information Measure and the Shannon Entropy also increase.

Effect of nonlinearity and persistence on multiscale irreversibility, non-stationarity, and complexity of time series-Case of data generated by the modified Langevin model.

Stochastic models of a time series can take the form of a nonlinear equation and have a built-in memory mechanism. Generated time series can be characterized by measures of certain features, e.g., non-stationarity, irreversibility, irregularity, multifractality, and short/long-tail distribution. Knowledge of the relationship between the form of the model and features of data seems to be the key to model time series. The paper presents a systematic analysis of the multiscale behavior of selected measures of irreversibility, irregularity, and non-stationarity vs degree of nonlinearity and persistence. As a time series generator, the modified nonlinear Langevin equation with built-in persistence is adopted. The modes of nonlinearity are determined by one parameter and do not change the half-Gaussian form of the marginal distribution function. The expected direct dependencies (sometimes non-trivial) were found and explained using the simplicity of the model. It has been shown that the change in nonlinearity, although subjected to a strong constraint (the same marginal distribution), causes significant changes in the tested markers of irregularity and non-stationarity. However, a synergy of non-linearity and persistence is needed to induce greater changes in irreversibility.

Discrete Langevin-type equation for p-order persistent time series and procedure of its reconstruction.

The stochastic discrete Langevin-type equation, which can describe p-order persistent processes, was introduced. The procedure of reconstruction of the equation from time series was proposed and tested on synthetic data. The approach was applied to hydrological data leading to the stochastic model of the phenomenon. The work is a substantial extension of our paper [Chaos 26, 053109 (2016)], in which the persistence of order 1 was taken into account.

Clustering of extreme events in time series generated by the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation.

We analyze the time clustering phenomenon in sequences of extremes of time series generated by the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fO-U) equation as the source of long-term correlation. We used the percentile-based definition of extremes based on the crossing theory or run theory, where a run is a sequence of L contiguous values above a given percentile. Thus, a sequence of extremes becomes a point process in time, being the time of occurrence of the extreme the starting time of the run. We investigate the relationship between the Hurst exponent related to the time series generated by the fO-U equation and three measures of time clustering of the corresponding extremes defined on the base of the 95th percentile. Our results suggest that for persistent pure fractional Gaussian noise, the sequence of the extremes is clusterized, while extremes obtained by antipersistent or Markovian pure fractional Gaussian noise seem to behave more regularly or Poissonianly. However, for the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation, the clustering of extremes is evident even for antipersistent and Markovian cases. This is a result of short range correlations caused by differential and drift terms. The drift parameter influences the extremes clustering effect-it drops with increasing value of the parameter.

Time series analysis in earthquake complex networks.

We introduce a new method of characterizing the seismic complex systems using a procedure of transformation from complex networks into time series. The undirected complex network is constructed from seismic hypocenters data. Network nodes are marked by their connectivity. The walk on the graph following the time of succeeding seismic events generates the connectivity time series which contains, both the space and time, features of seismic processes. This procedure was applied to four seismic data sets registered in Chile. It was shown that multifractality of constructed connectivity time series changes due to the particular geophysics characteristics of the seismic zones-it decreases with the occurrence of large earthquakes-and shows the spatiotemporal organization of these seismic systems.

Relation between HVG-irreversibility and persistence in the modified Langevin equation.

In this study, we investigate the relationship between persistence/antipersistence and time-irreversibility by using the Kullback-Leibler Divergence (KLD) in the directed Horizontal Visibility Graph applied to a new modified Langevin equation with persistence parameter d. A non-trivial relationship KLD(d) was found, characterized by a non-symmetric shape, which suggests that time-irreversibility increases with the degree of persistence or antipersistence. The analysis is applied to the population growth model, where the level of irreversibility may represent important features of the population dynamics, like its stability and ecosystem health.

Bi-SOC-states in one-dimensional random cellular automaton.

Two statistically stationary states with power-law scaling of avalanches are found in a simple 1 D cellular automaton. Features of the fixed points, the spiral saddle and the saddle with index 1, are investigated. The migration of states of the automaton between these two self-organized criticality states is demonstrated during evolution of the system in computer simulations. The automaton, being a slowly driven system, can be applied as a toy model of earthquake supercycles.

Detrended fluctuation analysis of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process: Stationarity versus nonstationarity.

The stationary/nonstationary regimes of time series generated by the discrete version of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equation are studied by using the detrended fluctuation analysis. Our findings point out to the prevalence of the drift parameter in determining the crossover time between the nonstationary and stationary regimes. The fluctuation functions coincide in the nonstationary regime for a constant diffusion parameter, and in the stationary regime for a constant ratio between the drift and diffusion stochastic forces. In the generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck equations, the Hurst exponent H influences the crossover time that increases with the decrease of H.

Reconstruction of the modified discrete Langevin equation from persistent time series.

The discrete Langevin-type equation, which can describe persistent processes, was introduced. The procedure of reconstruction of the equation from time series was proposed and tested on synthetic data, with short and long-tail distributions, generated by different Langevin equations. Corrections due to the finite sampling rates were derived. For an exemplary meteorological time series, an appropriate Langevin equation, which constitutes a stochastic macroscopic model of the phenomenon, was reconstructed.

Multifractal analysis of visibility graph-based Ito-related connectivity time series.

In this study, we investigate multifractal properties of connectivity time series resulting from the visibility graph applied to normally distributed time series generated by the Ito equations with multiplicative power-law noise. We show that multifractality of the connectivity time series (i.e., the series of numbers of links outgoing any node) increases with the exponent of the power-law noise. The multifractality of the connectivity time series could be due to the width of connectivity degree distribution that can be related to the exit time of the associated Ito time series. Furthermore, the connectivity time series are characterized by persistence, although the original Ito time series are random; this is due to the procedure of visibility graph that, connecting the values of the time series, generates persistence but destroys most of the nonlinear correlations. Moreover, the visibility graph is sensitive for detecting wide "depressions" in input time series.

Multifractal analysis of time series generated by discrete Ito equations.

In this study, we show that discrete Ito equations with short-tail Gaussian marginal distribution function generate multifractal time series. The multifractality is due to the nonlinear correlations, which are hidden in Markov processes and are generated by the interrelation between the drift and the multiplicative stochastic forces in the Ito equation. A link between the range of the generalized Hurst exponents and the mean of the squares of all averaged net forces is suggested.