Spatial Risk Distribution of Dengue Based on the Ecological Niche Model of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Central Mexican Highlands.

Dengue is the most important viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, predominantly Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera:Culicidae). Forty percent of the world's population is at risk of contracting the disease, and a large area of Mexico presents suitable environmental conditions for the life cycle of Ae. aegypti. In particular, the Central Mexican Highlands have a high population density, increasing the risk of transmission and propagation of dengue. In the present study, the potential distribution of Ae. aegypti was modeled under an ecological niche approach using the maximum entropy technique with the aim of determining the spatial risk distribution of dengue. The final model of five variables (minimum temperature of the coldest month |Bio6|, precipitation of the wettest month |Bio13|, precipitation seasonality |Bio15|, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and relative humidity) contributed to more than 90% of the model's performance. The results of the potential distribution model were then compared with the number of dengue cases per locality during the 2009-2015 period considering four suitability of presence categories. Category 4 corresponded with the highest suitability of presence (0.747 to 1) and the greatest risk of dengue (odds ratio [OR] = 103.27; P < 0.001). In conclusion, the present ecological niche model represents an important tool for the monitoring of dengue and the identification of high-risk areas.

Territorial approach to increased energy consumption of water extraction from depletion of a highlands Mexican aquifer.

This work proposes a method to estimate increased energy consumption of pumping caused by a drawdown of groundwater level and the equivalent energy consumption of the motor-pump system in an aquifer under intensive exploitation. This method has been applied to the Valley of Toluca aquifer, located in the Mexican highlands, whose intensive exploitation is reflected in a decline in the groundwater level of between 0.10 and 1.6 m/year. Results provide a summary of energy consumption and a map of energy consumption isopleths showing the areas that are most susceptible to increases in energy consumption due to pumping. The proposed method can be used to estimate the effect of the intensive exploitation of the Valley of Toluca aquifer on the energy consumption of groundwater extraction. Finding reveals that, for the year 2006, groundwater extraction in the urban zone required 2.39 times more energy than the conditions observed 38 years earlier. In monetary terms, this reflects an increase of USD$ 3 million annually, according to 2005 energy production costs.

Environmental effects of aquifer overexploitation: a case study in the highlands of Mexico.

There are several environmental processes occurring under aquifer overexploitation conditions. These processes include groundwater table decline, subsidence, attenuation and drying of springs, decrease of river flow, and increased pollution vulnerability, among others processes. Some of these effects have been observed on the Upper Basin of the Lerma River. The Lerma River begins in the SE of the Valley of Toluca at 2,600 m asl, in the wetland known as Lagoons of Almoloya del Río. This wetland is made up of a group of lagoons, which are an important aquatic system from an environmental point of view. The water inflow of this wetland is a discharge of springs, which occur between the fractured volcanic material of the mountain range and granular volcanic-continental deposits of the Valley of Toluca aquifer. The intensive exploitation of the Valley of Toluca aquifer to supply urban and industrial water to Mexico City and Toluca began in 1950 and is responsible for a steady decline of piezometric levels of 1-3.5 m/yr. Other effects of this exploitation--the drying of the wetland, the decrease of river flow and the land subsidence--caused serious ecological and social impacts. The authorities declared this aquifer as overexploited in order to reduce the exploitation and preserve the availability of water resources in this important region.