Historical museum collections and contemporary population studies implicate roads and introduced predatory bullfrogs in the decline of western pond turtles.

The western pond turtle (WPT), recently separated into two paripatrically distributed species (Emys pallida and Emys marmorata), is experiencing significant reductions in its range and population size. In addition to habitat loss, two potential causes of decline are female-biased road mortality and high juvenile mortality from non-native predatory bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana). However, quantitative analyses of these threats have never been conducted for either species of WPT. We used a combination of historical museum samples and published and unpublished field studies shared with us through personal communications with WPT field researchers (B. Shaffer, P. Scott, R. Fisher, C. Brown, R. Dagit, L. Patterson, T. Engstrom, 2019, personal communications) to quantify the effect of roads and bullfrogs on WPT populations along the west coast of the United States. Both species of WPT shift toward increasingly male biased museum collections over the last century, a trend consistent with increasing, female-biased road mortality. Recent WPT population studies revealed that road density and proximity were significantly associated with increasingly male-biased sex ratios, further suggesting female-biased road mortality. The mean body size of museum collections of E. marmorata, but not E. pallida, has increased over the last 100 years, consistent with reduced recruitment and aging populations that could be driven by invasive predators. Contemporary WPT population sites that co-occur with bullfrogs had significantly greater average body sizes than population sites without bullfrogs, suggesting strong bullfrog predation on small WPT hatchlings and juveniles. Overall, our findings indicate that both species of WPT face demographic challenges which would have been difficult to document without the use of both historical data from natural history collections and contemporary demographic field data. Although correlational, our analyses suggest that female-biased road mortality and predation on small turtles by non-native bullfrogs are occurring, and that conservation strategies reducing both may be important for WPT recovery.

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities.

Changing climate will impact species' ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Long-term monitoring of molecular markers can distinguish different seasonal patterns of fecal indicating bacteria sources.

Elevated levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) have been observed at Topanga Beach, CA, USA. To identify the FIB sources, a microbial source tracking study using a dog-, a gull- and two human-associated molecular markers was conducted at 10 sites over 21 months. Historical data suggest that episodic discharge from the lagoon at the mouth of Topanga Creek is the main source of bacteria to the beach. A decline in creek FIB/markers downstream from upper watershed development and a sharp increase in FIB/markers at the lagoon sites suggest sources are local to the lagoon. At the lagoon and beach, human markers are detected sporadically, dog marker peaks in abundance mid-winter, and gull marker is chronically elevated. Varied seasonal patterns of FIB and source markers were identified showing the importance of applying a suite of markers over long-term spatial and temporal sampling to identify a complex combination of sources of contamination.