Risk factors for severe outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 through the waves of the pandemic: Comparing patients with and without solid organ transplantation.

BACKGROUND: While coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is no longer a public health emergency, certain patients remain at risk of severe outcomes. To better understand changing risk profiles, we studied the risk factors for patients with and without solid organ transplantation (SOT) through the various waves of the pandemic. METHODS: Using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative we studied a cohort of adult patients testing positive for COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and May 2, 2022. We separated the data into waves of COVID-19 as defined by the Centers for Disease Control. In our primary outcome, we used multivariable survival analysis to look at various risk factors for hospitalization in those with and without SOT. RESULTS: A total of 3,570,032 patients were captured. We found an overall risk attenuation of adverse COVID-19-associated outcomes over time. In both non-SOT and SOT populations, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and congestive heart failure were risk factors for hospitalization. For SOT specifically, longer time periods between transplant and COVID-19 were protective and age was a risk factor. Notably, asthma was not a risk factor for major adverse renal cardiovascular events, hospitalization, or mortality in either group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a longitudinal view of the risks associated with adverse COVID-related outcomes amongst SOT and non-SOT patients, and how these risk factors evolved over time. Our work will help inform providers and policymakers to better target high-risk patients.

[Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Organophosphates in Water and Sediment in Dongting Lake].

Organophosphates （OPEs） are widely used as flame retardants and additives and thus are commonly detected in the environment. In order to explore their environmental behavior, the concentrations of 13 OPEs in the surface water and sediment of Dongting Lake were analyzed using UPLC-MS/MS. The results showed that 11 OPEs were detected, with detection frequencies of 5.26%-100% and 58.3%-100%, and the concentrations of OPEs were 2.06-2 028 ng·L-1 and 19.6-2 232 ng·g-1 in water and sediment, respectively. Overall, contamination concentrations were ranked in descending order as follows： inflowing rivers, lake area, and outlet, whereas the spatial distribution of concentrations in sediment was inversely proportional to hydrodynamics. The concentration of OPEs in Dongting Lake was at a high level compared with that of domestic and foreign lakes. Among the detected 11 OPEs, tri-iso-butyl phosphate （TnBP） and （TiBP） were dominant in water, accounting for 52.3% and 22.4% of ∑OPEs, respectively. TPhP was the dominant OPEs in sediment, accounting for 31.2% of ∑OPEs. The correlation and principal component analysis indicated that OPEs pollution in Dongting Lake was mainly affected by industrial production emissions, fishery aquaculture, and atmospheric deposition. The assessment results of the risk entropy showed that most of the detected OPEs in water had relatively low ecological risks, whereas the ecological risk of 2-ethylhexyl diphenyl phosphate （EHDPP） at some sampling points requires further attention.

The prevalence of postacute sequelae of coronavirus disease 2019 in solid organ transplant recipients: Evaluation of risk in the National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

Postacute sequelae after the coronavirus disease (COVID) of 2019 (PASC) is increasingly recognized, although data on solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients (SOTRs) are limited. Using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative, we performed 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) of all adult SOTR and nonimmunosuppressed/immunocompromised (ISC) patients with acute COVID infection (August 1, 2021 to January 13, 2023) for a subsequent PASC diagnosis using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine not only the association of SOT status with PASC, but also other patient factors after stratifying by SOT status. Prior to PSM, there were 8769 SOT and 1 576 769 non-ISC patients with acute COVID infection. After PSM, 8756 SOTR and 8756 non-ISC patients were included; 2.2% of SOTR (n = 192) and 1.4% (n = 122) of non-ISC patients developed PASC (P value < .001). In the overall matched cohort, SOT was independently associated with PASC (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-2.01). Among SOTR, COVID infection severity (aOR, 11.6; 95% CI, 3.93-30.0 for severe vs mild disease), older age (aOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03 per year), and mycophenolate mofetil use (aOR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.38-3.05) were each independently associated with PASC. In non-ISC patients, only depression (aOR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.24-3.07) and COVID infection severity were. In conclusion, PASC occurs more commonly in SOTR than in non-ISC patients, with differences in risk profiles based on SOT status.

Genetic and environmental influence on alcohol intent and alcohol sips among U.S. children-Effects across sex, race, and ethnicity.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol intent (the susceptibility to initiating alcohol use) and alcohol sips (the initiation of alcohol) in youth are a multifactorial puzzle with many components. This research aims to examine the connection between genetic and environmental factors across sex, race and ethnicity. METHODS: Data was obtained from the twin hub of the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study at baseline (2016-2018). Variance component models were conducted to dissect the additive genetic (A), common (C) and unique environmental (E) effects on alcohol traits. The proportion of the total alcohol phenotypic variation attributable to additive genetic factors is reported as heritability (h2). RESULTS: The sample (n = 1,772) included an approximately equal male-female distribution. The 886 same-sex twin pairs were 60.4% dizygotic (DZ), 39.6% monozygotic (MZ), 65.4% non-Hispanic Whites, 13.9% non-Hispanic Blacks, 10.8% of Hispanics with a mean age of 121.2 months. Overall, genetic predisposition was moderate for alcohol intent (h2 = 28%, p = .006) and low for alcohol initiation (h2 = 4%, p = 0.83). Hispanics (h2 = 53%, p < .0001) and Blacks (h2 = 48%, p < .0001) demonstrated higher alcohol intent due to additive genetic factors than Whites (h2 = 34%, p < .0001). Common environmental factors explained more variation in alcohol sips in females (c2 = 63%, p = .001) than in males (c2 = 55%, p = .003). Unique environmental factors largely attributed to alcohol intent, while common environmental factors explained the substantial variation in alcohol initiation. CONCLUSION: Sex and racial/ethnic disparities in genetic and environmental risk factors for susceptibility to alcohol initiation can lead to significant health disparities. Certain populations may be at greater risk for alcohol use due to their genetic and ecological factors at an early age.

USING SIMULTANEOUS REGRESSION CALIBRATION TO STUDY THE EFFECT OF MULTIPLE ERROR-PRONE EXPOSURES ON DISEASE RISK UTILIZING BIOMARKERS DEVELOPED FROM A CONTROLLED FEEDING STUDY.

Systematic measurement error in self-reported data creates important challenges in association studies between dietary intakes and chronic disease risks, especially when multiple dietary components are studied jointly. The joint regression calibration method has been developed for measurement error correction when objectively measured biomarkers are available for all dietary components of interest. Unfortunately, objectively measured biomarkers are only available for very few dietary components, which limits the application of the joint regression calibration method. Recently, for single dietary components, controlled feeding studies have been performed to develop new biomarkers for many more dietary components. However, it is unclear whether the biomarkers separately developed for single dietary components are valid for joint calibration. In this paper, we show that biomarkers developed for single dietary components cannot be used for joint regression calibration. We propose new methods to utilize controlled feeding studies to develop valid biomarkers for joint regression calibration to estimate the association between multiple dietary components simultaneously with the disease of interest. Asymptotic distribution theory for the proposed estimators is derived. Extensive simulations are performed to study the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. We apply our methods to examine the joint effects of sodium and potassium intakes on cardiovascular disease incidence using the Women's Health Initiative cohort data. We identify positive associations between sodium intake and cardiovascular diseases as well as negative associations between potassium intake and cardiovascular disease.

Reusable Solid-form Phase-Selective Organogelators for Rapid and Efficient Remediation of Crude Oil Spill.

Phase-selective organogelators (PSOGs) are considered as a prospective tool for their application in oil spill remediation. However, the number of reports on the PSOGs that can be used in powder form for prompt phase-selective gelation of crude oils is still limited. In this study, a series of compounds with l-mandelic acid as the scaffold bearing different amino acid fragments have been prepared. Also, the gelation behaviors and properties of these derivatives toward organic liquids, product oils, and a type of Chinese crude oil were investigated via heating-and-cooling process, stirring, or resting operation. Besides, the micromorphologies of the resulting gels and the driving forces for the gel formation have been studied by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared, UV spectroscopy, concentration-dependent 1H NMR, and X-ray diffraction. Particularly, gelator C15-Phe-Mac-Nap was shown to have the capability of congealing the Chinese crude oil selectively from water in powder form with a relatively lower gelator dosage, as compared with the other gelators we reported in the current and previous works. Moreover, gelator C15-Phe-Mac-Nap displayed some advantageous behaviors such as the reusability of gelator, excellent mechanical and chemical stability of the crude oil gels, and nontoxicity of the gelator in the aquatic environment, indicating its great potential application value for marine oil spill remediation.

Initial experience with an electron FLASH research extension (FLEX) for the Clinac system.

PURPOSE: Radiotherapy delivered at ultra-high-dose-rates (≥40 Gy/s), that is, FLASH, has the potential to effectively widen the therapeutic window and considerably improve the care of cancer patients. The underlying mechanism of the FLASH effect is not well understood, and commercial systems capable of delivering such dose rates are scarce. The purpose of this study was to perform the initial acceptance and commissioning tests of an electron FLASH research product for preclinical studies. METHODS: A linear accelerator (Clinac 23EX) was modified to include a non-clinical FLASH research extension (the Clinac-FLEX system) by Varian, a Siemens Healthineers company (Palo Alto, CA) capable of delivering a 16 MeV electron beam with FLASH and conventional dose rates. The acceptance, commissioning, and dosimetric characterization of the FLEX system was performed using radiochromic film, optically stimulated luminescent dosimeters, and a plane-parallel ionization chamber. A radiation survey was conducted for which the shielding of the pre-existing vault was deemed sufficient. RESULTS: The Clinac-FLEX system is capable of delivering a 16 MeV electron FLASH beam of approximately 1 Gy/pulse at isocenter and reached a maximum dose rate >3.8 Gy/pulse near the upper accessory mount on the linac gantry. The percent depth dose curves of the 16 MeV FLASH and conventional modes for the 10 × 10 cm2 applicator agreed within 0.5 mm at a range of 50% of the maximum dose. Their respective profiles agreed well in terms of flatness but deviated for field sizes >10 × 10 cm2 . The output stability of the FLASH system exhibited a dose deviation of <1%. Preliminary cell studies showed that the FLASH dose rate (180 Gy/s) had much less impact on the cell morphology of 76N breast normal cells compared to the non-FLASH dose rate (18 Gy/s), which induced large-size cells. CONCLUSION: Our studies characterized the non-clinical Clinac-FLEX system as a viable solution to conduct FLASH research that could substantially increase access to ultra-high-dose-rate capabilities for scientists.

Regression calibration utilizing biomarkers developed from high-dimensional metabolites.

Addressing systematic measurement errors in self-reported data is a critical challenge in association studies of dietary intake and chronic disease risk. The regression calibration method has been utilized for error correction when an objectively measured biomarker is available; however, biomarkers for only a few dietary components have been developed. This paper proposes to use high-dimensional objective measurements to construct biomarkers for many more dietary components and to estimate the diet disease associations. It also discusses the challenges in variance estimation in high-dimensional regression methods and presents a variety of techniques to address this issue, including cross-validation, degrees-of-freedom corrected estimators, and refitted cross-validation (RCV). Extensive simulation is performed to study the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. The proposed method is applied to the Women's Health Initiative cohort data to examine the associations between the sodium/potassium intake ratio and the total cardiovascular disease.

Description of two new species of the leafhopper genus Pediopsis Burmeister (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae, Eurymelinae, Macropsini) from China.

Two new leafhopper species of Pediopsis Burmeister, Pediopsisalbopicta Li & Dai, sp. nov. from Hunan and Guizhou provinces of central China and Pediopsispianmaensis Li & Dai, sp. nov. from Yunnan Province of southwestern China, are described and illustrated. Ambiguity in the original description of P.bannaensis Yang & Zhang is discussed, and figures of the female holotype of P.femorata Hamilton are provided for the first time. A checklist and key to Chinese species of Pediopsis are also given.

On High-Dimensional Covariate Adjustment for Estimating Causal Effects in Randomized Trials with Survival Outcomes.

The purpose of this work is to improve the efficiency in estimating the average causal effect (ACE) on the survival scale where right-censoring exists and high-dimensional covariate information is available. We propose new estimators using regularized survival regression and survival Random Forest (RF) to adjust for the high-dimensional covariate to improve efficiency. We study the behavior of the adjusted estimators under mild assumptions and show theoretical guarantees that the proposed estimators are more efficient than the unadjusted ones asymptotically when using RF for the adjustment. In addition, these adjusted estimators are n - consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The finite sample behavior of our methods is studied by simulation. The simulation results are in agreement with the theoretical results. We also illustrate our methods by analyzing the real data from transplant research to identify the relative effectiveness of identical sibling donors compared to unrelated donors with the adjustment of cytogenetic abnormalities.

Hormone replacement therapy and COVID-19 outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients compared with the general population.

Exogenous estrogen is associated with reduced coronavirus disease (COVID) mortality in nonimmunosuppressed/immunocompromised (non-ISC) postmenopausal females. Here, we examined the association of estrogen or testosterone hormone replacement therapy (HRT) with COVID outcomes in solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) compared to non-ISC individuals, given known differences in sex-based risk in these populations. SOTRs ≥45 years old with COVID-19 between April 1, 2020 and July 31, 2022 were identified using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative. The association of HRT use in the last 24 months (exogenous systemic estrogens for females; testosterone for males) with major adverse renal or cardiac events in the 90 days post-COVID diagnosis and other secondary outcomes were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models and logistic regression. We repeated these analyses in a non-ISC control group for comparison. Our study included 1135 SOTRs and 43 383 immunocompetent patients on HRT with COVID-19. In non-ISC, HRT use was associated with lower risk of major adverse renal or cardiac events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.65 for females; aHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.77 for males) and all secondary outcomes. In SOTR, HRT reduced the risk of acute kidney injury (aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.63-0.98) and mortality (aHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.28-0.85) in males with COVID but not in females. The potentially modifying effects of immunosuppression on the benefits of HRT requires further investigation.

False discovery rate-controlled multiple testing for union null hypotheses: a knockoff-based approach.

False discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedures provide important statistical guarantees for replicability in signal identification based on multiple hypotheses testing. In many fields of study, FDR controling procedures are used in high-dimensional (HD) analyses to discover features that are truly associated with the outcome. In some recent applications, data on the same set of candidate features are independently collected in multiple different studies. For example, gene expression data are collected at different facilities and with different cohorts, to identify the genetic biomarkers of multiple types of cancers. These studies provide us with opportunities to identify signals by considering information from different sources (with potential heterogeneity) jointly. This paper is about how to provide FDR control guarantees for the tests of union null hypotheses of conditional independence. We present a knockoff-based variable selection method (Simultaneous knockoffs) to identify mutual signals from multiple independent datasets, providing exact FDR control guarantees under finite sample settings. This method can work with very general model settings and test statistics. We demonstrate the performance of this method with extensive numerical studies and two real-data examples.

A Flexible Ensemble Learning Method for Survival Extrapolation.

OBJECTIVES: Survival extrapolation is an important statistical concept for estimating long-term survival from short-term clinical trial data. It is widely used in health technology assessment (HTA). Survival extrapolation is often performed by fitting one or two parametric models selected based on experience or selecting a model based on some goodness of fit statistics from a predefined collection of models. The main challenge in survival extrapolation is that the result is sensitive to model misspecification. In this study, we aim to propose a new approach that has a robust performance for survival extrapolation. METHODS: We propose a new method called Ensemble Learning for Survival Extrapolation (ELSE). Instead of selecting one best model from a predefined collection, ELSE builds an ensemble model based on a collection of models from the model library. Under this framework, we construct a point estimate of the long-term survival with a weighted average of the estimates of all candidate models and derive confidence intervals using nonparametric bootstrap. RESULTS: With our extensive numerical simulation studies, the proposed ELSE method shows better performance than the traditionally used model selection procedure based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). With a real data application to the Therapeutically Applicable Research to Generate Effective Treatment Wilms Tumor project (TARGET-WT) data, the ELSE method produces better survival extrapolation results in point estimate accuracy and confidence interval coverage. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an ensemble learning method for survival extrapolation (ELSE) which is robust for the underline data model and has good real data performance.

Prevention of exacerbation in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD with the intent to modulate respiratory microbiome: a pilot prospective, multi-center, randomized controlled trial.

Introduction: Considering the role of bacteria in the onset of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), we hypothesized that the use of influenza-Streptococcus pneumoniae vaccination, oral probiotics or inhaled amikacin could prevent AECOPD. Methods: In this pilot prospective, muti-central, randomized trial, moderate-to-very severe COPD subjects with a history of moderate-to-severe exacerbations in the previous year were enrolled and assigned in a ratio of 1:1:1:1 into 4 groups. All participants were managed based on the conventional treatment recommended by GOLD 2019 report for 3 months, with three groups receiving additional treatment of inhaled amikacin (0.4 g twice daily, 5-7 days monthly for 3 months), oral probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (1 tablet daily for 3 months), or influenza-S. pneumoniae vaccination. The primary endpoint was time to the next onset of moderate-to-severe AECOPD from enrollment. Secondary endpoints included CAT score, mMRC score, adverse events, and survival in 12 months. Results: Among all 112 analyzed subjects (101 males, 96 smokers or ex-smokers, mean ± SD age 67.19 ± 7.39 years, FEV1 41.06 ± 16.09% predicted), those who were given dual vaccination (239.7 vs. 198.2 days, p = 0.044, 95%CI [0.85, 82.13]) and oral probiotics (248.8 vs. 198.2 days, p = 0.017, 95%CI [7.49, 93.59]) had significantly delayed onset of next moderate-to-severe AECOPD than those received conventional treatment only. For subjects with high symptom burden, the exacerbations were significantly delayed in inhaled amikacin group as compared to the conventional treatment group (237.3 vs. 179.1 days, p = 0.009, 95%CI [12.40,104.04]). The three interventions seemed to be safe and well tolerated for patient with stable COPD. Conclusion: The influenza-S. pneumoniae vaccine and long-term oral probiotic LGG can significantly delay the next moderate-to-severe AECOPD. Periodically amikacin inhalation seems to work in symptomatic patients. The findings in the current study warrants validation in future studies with microbiome investigation.Clinical trial registration:https://clinicaltrials.gov/, identifier NCT03449459.

The risk and consequences of breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection in solid organ transplant recipients relative to non-immunosuppressed controls.

Clinical outcomes in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients with breakthrough COVID (BTCo) after two doses of mRNA vaccination compared to the non-immunocompromised/immunosuppressed (ISC) general population, are not well described. In a cohort of adult patients testing positive for COVID-19 between December 10, 2020 and April 4, 2022, we compared the cumulative incidence of BTCo in a non-ISC population to SOT recipients (overall and by organ type) using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) including data from 36 sites across the United States. We assessed the risk of complications post-BTCo in vaccinated SOT recipients versus SOT with unconfirmed vaccination status (UVS) using multivariable Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression. BTCo occurred in 4776 vaccinated SOT recipients over a median of 149 days (IQR 99-233), with the highest cumulative incidence in heart recipients. The relative risk of BTCo was greatest in SOT recipients (relative to non-ISC) during the pre-Delta period (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.80-3.08). The greatest relative benefit with vaccination for both non-ISC and SOT cohorts was in BTCo mortality (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.36-0.39 for non-ISC; HR 0.67, 95% 0.57-0.78 for SOT relative to UVS). While the relative benefit of vaccine was less in SOT than non-ISC, SOT patients still exhibited significant benefit with vaccination.

Sex and organ-specific risk of major adverse renal or cardiac events in solid organ transplant recipients with COVID-19.

While older males are at the highest risk for poor coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, it is not known if this applies to the immunosuppressed recipient of a solid organ transplant (SOT), nor how the type of allograft transplanted may impact outcomes. In a cohort study of adult (>18 years) patients testing positive for COVID-19 (January 1, 2020-June 21, 2021) from 56 sites across the United States identified using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) Enclave, we used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to assess time to MARCE after COVID-19 diagnosis in those with and without SOT. We examined the exposure of age-stratified recipient sex overall and separately in kidney, liver, lung, and heart transplant recipients. 3996 (36.4%) SOT and 91 646 (4.8%) non-SOT patients developed MARCE. Risk of post-COVID outcomes differed by transplant allograft type with heart and kidney recipients at highest risk. Males with SOT were at increased risk of MARCE, but to a lesser degree than the non-SOT cohort (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81-0.98 for SOT and HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.60-0.62 for non-SOT [females vs. males]). This represents the largest COVID-19 SOT cohort to date and the first-time sex-age-stratified and allograft-specific COVID-19 outcomes have been explored in those with SOT.

COVID-19 in Solid Organ Transplantation: Results of the National COVID Cohort Collaborative.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The National COVID Cohort Collaborative was developed to facilitate analysis of patient-level data for those tested for COVID-19 across the United States. METHODS: In this study, we identified a cohort of SOT recipients testing positive or negative for COVID-19 (COVID+ and COVID-, respectively) between January 1, 2020, and November 20, 2020. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to determine predictors of a positive result among those tested. Outcomes following COVID-19 diagnosis were also explored. RESULTS: Of 18 121 SOT patients tested, 1925 were positive (10.6%). COVID+ SOT patients were more likely to have a kidney transplant and be non-White race. Comorbidities were common in all SOT patients but significantly more common in those who were COVID+. Of COVID+ SOT, 42.9% required hospital admission. COVID+ status was the strongest predictor of acute kidney injury (AKI), rejection, and graft failure in the 90 d after testing. A total of 40.9% of COVID+ SOT experienced a major adverse renal or cardiac event, 16.3% experienced a major adverse cardiac event, 35.3% experienced AKI, and 1.5% experienced graft loss. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest US cohort of COVID+ SOT recipients to date, we identified patient factors associated with the diagnosis of COVID-19 and outcomes following infection, including a high incidence of major adverse renal or cardiac event and AKI.

The bias of isotonic regression.

We study the bias of the isotonic regression estimator. While there is extensive work characterizing the mean squared error of the isotonic regression estimator, relatively little is known about the bias. In this paper, we provide a sharp characterization, proving that the bias scales as O(n -ß/3) up to log factors, where 1 ≤ ß ≤ 2 is the exponent corresponding to Hölder smoothness of the underlying mean. Importantly, this result only requires a strictly monotone mean and that the noise distribution has subexponential tails, without relying on symmetric noise or other restrictive assumptions.