Caenorhabditis elegans foraging patterns follow a simple rule of thumb.

Rules of thumb are behavioral algorithms that approximate optimal behavior while lowering cognitive and sensory costs. One way to reduce these costs is by simplifying the representation of the environment: While the theoretically optimal behavior may depend on many environmental variables, a rule of thumb may use a smaller set of variables that performs reasonably well. Experimental proof of this simplification requires an exhaustive mapping of all relevant combinations of several environmental parameters, which we performed for Caenorhabditis elegans foraging by covering systematically combinations of food density (across 4 orders of magnitude) and food type (across 12 bacterial strains). We found that worms' response is dominated by a single environmental variable: food density measured as number of bacteria per unit surface. They disregard other factors such as biomass content or bacterial strain. We also measured experimentally the impact on fitness of each type of food, determining that the rule is near-optimal and therefore constitutes a rule of thumb that leverages the most informative environmental variable. These results set the stage for further investigations into the underlying genetic and neural mechanisms governing this simplification process, and into its role in the evolution of decision-making strategies.

Warmer temperatures favor slower-growing bacteria in natural marine communities.

Earth's life-sustaining oceans harbor diverse bacterial communities that display varying composition across time and space. While particular patterns of variation have been linked to a range of factors, unifying rules are lacking, preventing the prediction of future changes. Here, analyzing the distribution of fast- and slow-growing bacteria in ocean datasets spanning seasons, latitude, and depth, we show that higher seawater temperatures universally favor slower-growing taxa, in agreement with theoretical predictions of how temperature-dependent growth rates differentially modulate the impact of mortality on species abundances. Changes in bacterial community structure promoted by temperature are independent of variations in nutrients along spatial and temporal gradients. Our results help explain why slow growers dominate at the ocean surface, during summer, and near the tropics and provide a framework to understand how bacterial communities will change in a warmer world.

Resource-diversity relationships in bacterial communities reflect the network structure of microbial metabolism.

The relationship between the number of available nutrients and community diversity is a central question in ecological research that remains unanswered. Here we studied the assembly of hundreds of soil-derived microbial communities on a wide range of well-defined resource environments, from single carbon sources to combinations of up to 16. We found that, while single resources supported multispecies communities varying from 8 to 40 taxa, mean community richness increased only one-by-one with additional resources. Cross-feeding could reconcile these seemingly contrasting observations, with the metabolic network seeded by the supplied resources explaining the changes in richness due to both the identity and the number of resources, as well as the distribution of taxa across different communities. By using a consumer-resource model incorporating the inferred cross-feeding network, we provide further theoretical support to our observations and a framework to link the type and number of environmental resources to microbial community diversity.

Inversion of pheromone preference optimizes foraging in C. elegans.

Foraging animals have to locate food sources that are usually patchily distributed and subject to competition. Deciding when to leave a food patch is challenging and requires the animal to integrate information about food availability with cues signaling the presence of other individuals (e.g., pheromones). To study how social information transmitted via pheromones can aid foraging decisions, we investigated the behavioral responses of the model animal Caenorhabditis elegans to food depletion and pheromone accumulation in food patches. We experimentally show that animals consuming a food patch leave it at different times and that the leaving time affects the animal preference for its pheromones. In particular, worms leaving early are attracted to their pheromones, while worms leaving later are repelled by them. We further demonstrate that the inversion from attraction to repulsion depends on associative learning and, by implementing a simple model, we highlight that it is an adaptive solution to optimize food intake during foraging.

COVID-19 mortality risk assessment: An international multi-center study.

Timely identification of COVID-19 patients at high risk of mortality can significantly improve patient management and resource allocation within hospitals. This study seeks to develop and validate a data-driven personalized mortality risk calculator for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. De-identified data was obtained for 3,927 COVID-19 positive patients from six independent centers, comprising 33 different hospitals. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were collected at hospital admission. The COVID-19 Mortality Risk (CMR) tool was developed using the XGBoost algorithm to predict mortality. Its discrimination performance was subsequently evaluated on three validation cohorts. The derivation cohort of 3,062 patients has an observed mortality rate of 26.84%. Increased age, decreased oxygen saturation (≤ 93%), elevated levels of C-reactive protein (≥ 130 mg/L), blood urea nitrogen (≥ 18 mg/dL), and blood creatinine (≥ 1.2 mg/dL) were identified as primary risk factors, validating clinical findings. The model obtains out-of-sample AUCs of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87-0.94) on the derivation cohort. In the validation cohorts, the model obtains AUCs of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95) on Seville patients, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.84-0.91) on Hellenic COVID-19 Study Group patients, and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85) on Hartford Hospital patients. The CMR tool is available as an online application at covidanalytics.io/mortality_calculator and is currently in clinical use. The CMR model leverages machine learning to generate accurate mortality predictions using commonly available clinical features. This is the first risk score trained and validated on a cohort of COVID-19 patients from Europe and the United States.

Bottom-Up Approaches to Synthetic Cooperation in Microbial Communities.

Microbial cooperation pervades ecological scales, from single-species populations to host-associated microbiomes. Understanding the mechanisms promoting the stability of cooperation against potential threats by cheaters is a major question that only recently has been approached experimentally. Synthetic biology has helped to uncover some of these basic mechanisms, which were to some extent anticipated by theoretical predictions. Moreover, synthetic cooperation is a promising lead towards the engineering of novel functions and enhanced productivity of microbial communities. Here, we review recent progress on engineered cooperation in microbial ecosystems. We focus on bottom-up approaches that help to better understand cooperation at the population level, progressively addressing the challenges of tackling higher degrees of complexity: spatial structure, multispecies communities, and host-associated microbiomes. We envisage cooperation as a key ingredient in engineering complex microbial ecosystems.

Temporal clustering of extreme climate events drives a regime shift in rocky intertidal biofilms.

Research on regime shifts has focused primarily on how changes in the intensity and duration of press disturbances precipitate natural systems into undesirable, alternative states. By contrast, the role of recurrent pulse perturbations, such as extreme climatic events, has been largely neglected, hindering our understanding of how historical processes regulate the onset of a regime shift. We performed field manipulations to evaluate whether combinations of extreme events of temperature and sediment deposition that differed in their degree of temporal clustering generated alternative states in rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (biofilms) on rocky shores. The likelihood of biofilms to shift from a vegetated to a bare state depended on the degree of temporal clustering of events, with biofilm biomass showing both states under a regime of non-clustered (60 d apart) perturbations while collapsing in the clustered (15 d apart) scenario. Our results indicate that time since the last perturbation can be an important predictor of collapse in systems exhibiting alternative states and that consideration of historical effects in studies of regime shifts may largely improve our understanding of ecosystem dynamics under climate change.

Hybrid datasets: integrating observations with experiments in the era of macroecology and big data.

Understanding how increasing human domination of the biosphere affects life on earth is a critical research challenge. This task is facilitated by the increasing availability of open-source data repositories, which allow ecologists to address scientific questions at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. Large datasets are mostly observational, so they may have limited ability to uncover causal relations among variables. Experiments are better suited at attributing causation, but they are often limited in scope. We propose hybrid datasets, resulting from the integration of observational with experimental data, as an approach to leverage the scope and ability to attribute causality in ecological studies. We show how the analysis of hybrid datasets with emerging techniques in time series analysis (Convergent Cross-mapping) and macroecology (Joint Species Distribution Models) can generate novel insights into causal effects of abiotic and biotic processes that would be difficult to achieve otherwise. We illustrate these principles with two case studies in marine ecosystems and discuss the potential to generalize across environments, species and ecological processes. If used wisely, the analysis of hybrid datasets may become the standard approach for research goals that seek causal explanations for large-scale ecological phenomena.

Legacy effects and memory loss: how contingencies moderate the response of rocky intertidal biofilms to present and past extreme events.

Understanding how historical processes modulate the response of ecosystems to perturbations is becoming increasingly important. In contrast to the growing interest in projecting biodiversity and ecosystem functioning under future climate scenarios, how legacy effects originating from historical conditions drive change in ecosystems remains largely unexplored. Using experiments in combination with stochastic antecedent modelling, we evaluated how extreme warming, sediment deposition and grazing events modulated the ecological memory of rocky intertidal epilithic microphytobenthos (EMPB). We found memory effects in the non-clustered scenario of disturbance (60 days apart), where EMPB biomass fluctuated in time, but not under clustered disturbances (15 days apart), where EMPB biomass was consistently low. A massive grazing event impacted on EMPB biomass in a second run of the experiment, also muting ecological memory. Our results provide empirical support to the theoretical expectation that stochastic fluctuations promote ecological memory, but also show that contingencies may lead to memory loss.