Modeling the economic value of cardiometabolic virtual-first care programs.

OBJECTIVES: This study simulated the potential multiyear health and economic benefits of participation in 4 cardiometabolic virtual-first care (V1C) programs: prevention, hypertension, diabetes, and diabetes plus hypertension. STUDY DESIGN: Using nationally available data and existing clinical and demographic information from members participating in cardiometabolic V1C programs, a microsimulation approach was used to estimate potential reduction in onset of disease sequelae and associated gross savings (ie, excluding the cost of V1C programs) in health care costs. METHODS: Members of each program were propensity matched to similar records in the combined 2012-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey files based on age, sex, race/ethnicity, body mass index, and diagnosis status of diabetes and/or hypertension. V1C program-attributed changes in clinical outcomes combined with baseline biometric levels and other risk factors were used as inputs to model disease onset and related gross health care costs. RESULTS: Across the V1C programs, sustained improvements in weight loss, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure levels were estimated to reduce incidence of modeled disease sequelae by 2% to 10% over the 5 years following enrollment. As a result of sustained improvement in biometrics and reduced disease onset, the estimated gross savings in medical expenditures across the programs would be $892 to $1342 after 1 year, and cumulative estimated gross medical savings would be $2963 to $4346 after 3 years and $5221 to $7756 after 5 years. In addition, high program engagement was associated with greater health and economic benefits. CONCLUSIONS: V1C programs for prevention and management of cardiometabolic chronic conditions have potential long-term health and financial implications.

The value of virtual physical therapy for musculoskeletal care.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the economic benefit of evidence-based patient-initiated virtual physical therapy (PIVPT) service among a nationally representative sample of commercially insured patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions. STUDY DESIGN: Counterfactual simulation. METHODS: Using a nationally representative sample from the 2018 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we simulated the direct medical care savings and indirect cost savings from reduced absenteeism resulting from PIVPT among commercially insured working adults with self-reported MSK conditions. Model parameters of the impact of PIVPT are drawn from peer-reviewed literature. Four potential benefits of PIVPT are explored: (1) more rapid access to PT, (2) improved adherence to PT, (3) less expensive PT care per episode, and (4) reduced/avoided referral costs of PT. RESULTS: The mean medical care savings per person per year from PIVPT range between $1116 and $1523. Savings are mainly attributed to early initiation of PT (35%) and lower cost of PT (33%). The benefits of PIVPT result in a mean reduction of 6.6 hours in pain-related missed work per person per year. The return on investment of PIVPT is 2.0 (medical savings only) or 2.2 (medical savings plus reduced absenteeism). CONCLUSIONS: PIVPT service provides added value to MSK care by facilitating earlier access and better adherence to PT and lowering the cost of PT.

Impact of a Digitally Enhanced Diabetes Self-Management Program on Glycemia and Medical Costs.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze economic savings and health impacts associated with a virtual digitally enhanced diabetes self-management education and support (DSMES) program. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants (n = 1,494) were nonpregnant adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes and baseline body mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 (23 kg/m2 if of Asian descent) or higher who enrolled in virtual DSMES between February 2019 and April 2020 for at least 4 months. Participants' changes in glycated hemoglobin (A1C) and body weight were calculated as the difference between program start and last recorded values between months 4 and 6. Outcomes for all participants were analyzed; subanalyses were done on 628 participants with starting A1C >7% (53 mmol/mol), who could benefit most from DSMES. Markov-based microsimulation approach was used to model the potential reductions in diabetes sequalae and medical expenditures if observed improvements in A1C and BMI were maintained. RESULTS: DSMES participants with starting A1C >7% experienced average reductions of 0.9% A1C and 2.1 kg of body weight (-1.7% of BMI) within 6 months. If these improvements were maintained, simulated outcomes include reduced 5-year onset of ischemic heart disease by 9.2%, myocardial infarction by 10.6%, stroke by 12.1%, chronic kidney disease by 16.5%, and reduced onset of other sequelae. Simulated cumulative reduction in medical expenditures is $1160 after 1 year, $4150 after 3 years, $7790 after 5 years, and $18 020 after 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Participation in virtual DSMES improves A1C and body weight, with the potential to slow onset of diabetes sequelae and reduce medical expenditures.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 1: Results From a Cross-sectional Survey.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to describe the current physiatrist workforce in the United States. DESIGN: An online, cross-sectional survey of board-certified physiatrists in 2019 (N = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographic and practice characteristics, including age, sex, practice area, practice setting, hours worked, patient characteristics, staffing, and work responsibilities. Physiatrists were stratified by substantive practice patterns using a cluster analysis approach. Survey responses were arrayed across the practice patterns and differences noted. RESULTS: The practice patterns identified included musculoskeletal/pain medicine, general/neurological rehabilitation, academic practice, pediatric rehabilitation, orthopedic/complex conditions rehabilitation, and disability/occupational rehabilitation. Many differences were observed across these practice patterns. Notably, primary practice setting and the extent and ways in which other healthcare staff are used in physiatry practices differed across practice patterns. Physiatrists working in musculoskeletal/pain medicine and disability/occupational rehabilitation were least likely to work with nurse practitioners and physician assistants. Physiatrists working in academic practice, general/neurological rehabilitation, and pediatric rehabilitation were most likely to have primary practice settings in hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Physiatry is an evolving medical specialty affected by many of the same trends as other medical specialties. The results of this survey can inform policy discussions and further research on the effects of these trends on physiatrists and physiatry practice in the future.

The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the current and future adequacy of physiatrist supply in the United States. DESIGN: A 2019 online survey of board-certified physiatrists (n = 616 completed, 30.1% response) collected information about demographics, practice characteristics, hours worked, and retirement intentions. Microsimulation models projected future physiatrist supply and demand using data from the American Board of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, national and state population projections, American Community Survey, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, and other sources. RESULTS: Approximately 37% of 8853 active physiatrists indicate that their workload exceeds capacity, 59% indicate that workload is at capacity, and 4% indicate under capacity. These findings suggest a national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists in 2017, with substantial geographic variation in supply adequacy. Projected growth in physiatrist supply from 2017 to 2030 approximately equals demand growth (2250 vs. 2390), suggesting that without changes in care delivery, the shortfall of physiatrists will persist, with a 1080 (9.7%) physiatrist shortfall in 2030. CONCLUSION: Without an increase in physiatry residency positions, the current national shortfall of physiatrists is projected to persist. Although a projected increase in physiatrists' use of advanced practice providers may help preserve access to comprehensive physiatry care, it is not expected to eliminate the shortfall.

The pediatric dental workforce in 2016 and beyond.

BACKGROUND: Childhood caries is a major oral and general health problem, particularly in certain populations. In this study, the authors aimed to evaluate the adequacy of the supply of pediatric dentists. METHODS: The authors collected baseline practice information from 2,546 pediatric dentists through an online survey (39.1% response rate) in 2017. The authors used a workforce simulation model by using data from the survey and other sources to produce estimates under several scenarios to anticipate future supply and demand for pediatric dentists. RESULTS: If production of new pediatric dentists and use and delivery of oral health care continue at current rates, the pediatric dentist supply will increase by 4,030 full-time equivalent (FTE) dentists by 2030, whereas demand will increase by 140 FTE dentists by 2030. Supply growth was higher under hypothetical scenarios with an increased number of graduates (4,690 FTEs) and delayed retirement (4,320 FTEs). If children who are underserved experience greater access to care or if pediatric dentists provide a larger portion of services for children, demand could grow by 2,100 FTE dentists or by 10,470 FTE dentists, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study results suggest that the supply of pediatric dentists is growing more rapidly than is the demand. Growth in demand could increase if pediatric dentists captured a larger share of pediatric dental services or if children who are underserved had oral health care use patterns similar to those of the population with fewer access barriers. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: It is important to encourage policy changes to reduce barriers to accessing oral health care, to continue pediatric dentists' participation with Medicaid programs, and to urge early dental services for children.

The Economic Burden of Elevated Blood Glucose Levels in 2017: Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Diabetes, Gestational Diabetes Mellitus, and Prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to update national estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in the United States for year 2017 and provide state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these updated statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated blood glucose levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study estimated medical expenditures exceeding levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes and the indirect economic burden associated with reduced labor force participation and productivity. Data sources analyzed included Optum medical claims for ∼5.8 million commercially insured patients continuously enrolled from 2013 to 2015, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.8 million Medicare patients in 2014, and the 2014 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.1 million discharge records. Other data sources were the U.S. Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. RESULTS: The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages), undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes (adults), and GDM (mothers and newborns) reached nearly $404 billion in 2017, consisting of $327.2 billion for diagnosed diabetes, $31.7 billion for undiagnosed diabetes, $43.4 billion for prediabetes, and nearly $1.6 billion for GDM. Combined, this amounted to an economic burden of $1,240 for each American in 2017. Annual burden per case averaged $13,240 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for GDM, $4,250 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $500 for prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Updated statistics underscore the importance of reducing the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through better detection, prevention, and treatment.

Where can obesity management policy make the largest impact? Evaluating sub-populations through a microsimulation approach.

BACKGROUND: There is a critical need to focus limited resources on sub-groups of patients with obesity where we expect the largest return on investment. This paper identifies patient sub-groups where an investment may result in larger positive economic and health outcomes. METHODS: The baseline population with obesity was derived from a public survey database and divided into sub-populations defined by demographics and disease status. In 2016, a validated model was used to simulate the incidence of diabetes, absenteeism, and direct medical cost in five care settings. Research findings were derived from the difference in population outcomes with and without weight loss over 15 years. Modeled weight loss scenarios included initial 5% or 12% reduction in body mass index followed by a gradual weight regain. Additional simulations were conducted to show alternative outcomes from different time courses and maintenance scenarios. RESULTS: Univariate analyses showed that age 45-64, pre-diabetes, female, or obesity class III are independently predictive of larger savings. After considering the correlation between these factors, multivariate analyses projected young females with obesity class I as the optimal sub-group to control obesity-related medical expenditures. In contrast, the population aged 20-35 with obesity class III will yield the best health outcomes. Also, the sub-group aged 45-54 with obesity class I will produce the biggest productivity improvement. Each additional year of weight loss maintained showed increased financial benefits. CONCLUSIONS: This paper studied the heterogeneity between many sub-populations affected by obesity and recommended different priorities for decision-makers in economic, productivity, and health realms.

Diabetes diagnosis and management among insured adults across metropolitan areas in the U.S.

This study provides diabetes-related metrics for the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. in 2012-including prevalence of diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, insurance status of the population with diabetes, diabetes medication use, and prevalence of poorly controlled diabetes. Diabetes prevalence estimates were calculated using cross-sectional data combining the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, American Community Survey, National Nursing Home Survey, Census population files, and National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Analysis of medical claims files (2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database, 2011 Medicare Standard Analytical Files, and 2008 Medicaid Analytic eXtract) produced information on treatment and poorly controlled diabetes by geographic location, insurance type, sex, and age group. Among insured adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes in 2012, the proportion receiving diabetes medications ranged from 83% in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, to 65% in West Palm Beach, Florida. The proportion of treated patients with medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes was lowest in Minneapolis, Minnesota (36%) and highest in Texas metropolitan areas of Austin (51%), San Antonio (51%), and Houston (50%). Estimates of diabetes detection and management across metropolitan areas often differ from state and national estimates. Local metrics of diabetes management can be helpful for tracking improvements in communities over time.

Type 2 diabetes detection and management among insured adults.

BACKGROUND: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that 28.9 million adults had diabetes in 2012 in the US, though many patients are undiagnosed or not managing their condition. This study provides US national and state estimates of insured adults with type 2 diabetes who are diagnosed, receiving exams and medication, managing glycemic levels, with diabetes complications, and their health expenditures. Such information can be used for benchmarking and to identify gaps in diabetes detection and management. METHODS: The study combines analysis of survey data with medical claims analysis for the commercially insured, Medicare, and Medicaid populations to estimate the number of adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes and undiagnosed diabetes by insurance type, age, and sex. Medical claims analysis used the 2012 de-identified Normative Health Information database covering a nationally representative commercially insured population, the 2011 Medicare 5% Sample, and the 2008 Medicaid Mini-Max. RESULTS: Among insured adults in 2012, approximately 16.9 million had diagnosed type 2 diabetes, 1.45 million had diagnosed type 1 diabetes, and 6.9 million had undiagnosed diabetes. Of those with diagnosed type 2, approximately 13.0 million (77%) received diabetes medication-ranging from 70% in New Jersey to 82% in Utah. Suboptimal percentages had claims indicating recommended exams were performed. Of those receiving diabetes medication, 43% (5.6 million) had medical claims indicating poorly controlled diabetes-ranging from 29% with poor control in Minnesota and Iowa to 53% in Texas. Poor control was correlated with higher prevalence of neurological complications (+14%), renal complications (+14%), and peripheral vascular disease (+11%). Patients with poor control averaged $4,860 higher average annual health care expenditures-ranging from $6,680 for commercially insured patients to $4,360 for Medicaid and $3,430 for Medicare patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large number of insured adults with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes by insurance type and state. Furthermore, this study sheds light on other gaps in diabetes care quality among patients with diagnosed diabetes and corresponding poorly controlled diabetes. These findings underscore the need for improvements in data collection and diabetes screening and management, along with policies that support these improvements.

Clinical and Economic Impact of a Digital, Remotely-Delivered Intensive Behavioral Counseling Program on Medicare Beneficiaries at Risk for Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease impose substantial clinical and economic burdens for seniors (age 65 and above) and the Medicare program. Intensive Behavioral Counseling (IBC) interventions like the National Diabetes Prevention Program (NDPP), have demonstrated effectiveness in reducing excess body weight and lowering or delaying morbidity onset. This paper estimated the potential health implications and medical savings of a digital version of IBC modeled after the NDPP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Participants in this digital IBC intervention, the Omada program, include 1,121 overweight or obese seniors with additional risk factors for diabetes or heart disease. Weight changes were objectively measured via participant use of a networked weight scale. Participants averaged 6.8% reduction in body weight within 26 weeks, and 89% of participants completed 9 or more of the 16 core phase lessons. We used a Markov-based microsimulation model to simulate the impact of weight loss on future health states and medical expenditures over 10 years. Cumulative per capita medical expenditure savings over 3, 5 and 10 years ranged from $1,720 to 1,770 (3 years), $3,840 to $4,240 (5 years) and $11,550 to $14,200 (10 years). The range reflects assumptions of weight re-gain similar to that seen in the DPP clinical trial (lower bound) or minimal weight re-gain aligned with age-adjusted national averages (upper bound). The estimated net economic benefit after IBC costs is $10,250 to $12,840 cumulative over 10 years. Simulation outcomes suggest reduced incidence of diabetes by 27-41% for participants with prediabetes, and stroke by approximately 15% over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: A digital, remotely-delivered IBC program can help seniors at risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease achieve significant weight loss, reduces risk for diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and achieve meaningful medical cost savings. These findings affirm recommendations for IBC coverage by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force.

Return on Investment for Digital Behavioral Counseling in Patients With Prediabetes and Cardiovascular Disease.

INTRODUCTION: We calculated the health and economic impacts of participation in a digital behavioral counseling service that is designed to promote a healthful diet and physical activity for cardiovascular disease prevention in adults with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors (Prevent, Omada Health, San Francisco, California). This program enhances the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Diabetes Prevention Recognition Program. Participants completed a 16-week core program followed by an ongoing maintenance program. METHODS: Analysis was conducted for 2 populations meeting criteria for lifestyle intervention: 1) prediabetes (n = 1,663), and 2) high cardiovascular disease risk (n = 2,152). The Markov-based model simulated clinical and economic outcomes related to obesity and diabetes annually over 10 years for the 2 defined populations. Comparisons were made between participants and propensity-matched controls from the community. RESULTS: The return-on-investment break-even point was 3 years in both populations. Simulated return on investment for the population with prediabetes was $9 and $1,565 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Simulated return on investment for the population with cardiovascular disease risk was $96 and $1,512 at years 3 and 5, respectively. Results suggest that program participation reduces diabetes incidence by 30% to 33% and stroke by 11% to 16% over 5 years. CONCLUSION: Digital Behavioral Counseling provides significant health benefits to patients with prediabetes and cardiovascular disease and a positive return on investment.

Reductions in mortality among Medicare beneficiaries following the implementation of Medicare Part D.

Medicare Part D is a prescription drug program that provides seniors and disabled individuals enrolled in Medicare with outpatient drug coverage benefits. Part D has been shown to increase access to medicines and improve medication adherence; however, the effect of Part D on health outcomes has not yet been extensively studied. In this study, we used a published and validated Markov-based microsimulation model to quantify the relationships among medication use, disease incidence and severity, and mortality. Based on the simulation results, we estimate that since the implementation of Part D in 2006, nearly 200,000 Medicare beneficiaries have lived at least 1 year longer. Reductions in mortality have occurred because of fewer deaths associated with medication-sensitive conditions such as diabetes, congestive heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction. Improved access to medication through Medicare Part D helps patients improve blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels, which in turn can prevent or delay the onset of disease and the incidence of adverse health events, thus reducing mortality.

Value of lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes and sequelae.

BACKGROUND: The Community Preventive Services Task Force recommends combined diet and physical activity promotion programs for people at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, as evidence continues to show that intensive lifestyle interventions are effective for overweight individuals with prediabetes. PURPOSE: To illustrate the potential clinical and economic benefits of treating prediabetes with lifestyle intervention to prevent or delay onset of type 2 diabetes and sequelae. METHODS: This 2014 analysis used a Markov model to simulate disease onset, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality of life for a nationally representative sample with prediabetes from the 2003-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Modeled scenarios used 10-year follow-up results from the lifestyle arm of the Diabetes Prevention Program and Outcomes Study versus simulated natural history of disease. RESULTS: Over 10 years, estimated average cumulative gross economic benefits of treating patients who met diabetes screening criteria recommended by the ADA ($26,800) or USPSTF ($24,700) exceeded average benefits from treating the entire prediabetes population ($17,800). Estimated cumulative, gross medical savings for these three populations averaged $10,400, $11,200, and $6,300, respectively. Published estimates suggest that opportunistic screening for prediabetes is inexpensive, and lifestyle intervention similar to the Diabetes Prevention Program can be achieved for ≤$2,300 over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle intervention among people with prediabetes produces long-term societal benefits that exceed anticipated intervention costs, especially among prediabetes patients that meet the ADA and USPSTF screening guidelines.

The economic burden of elevated blood glucose levels in 2012: diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus, and prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of the economic burden of undiagnosed diabetes, prediabetes, and gestational diabetes mellitus in 2012 in the U.S. and to present state-level estimates. Combined with published estimates for diagnosed diabetes, these statistics provide a detailed picture of the economic costs associated with elevated glucose levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This study estimated health care use and medical expenditures in excess of expected levels occurring in the absence of diabetes or prediabetes. Data sources that were analyzed include Optum medical claims for ∼4.9 million commercially insured patients who were continuously enrolled from 2010 to 2012, Medicare Standard Analytical Files containing medical claims for ∼2.6 million Medicare patients in 2011, and the 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample containing ∼7.8 million hospital discharge records. The indirect economic burden includes reduced labor force participation, missed workdays, and reduced productivity. State-level estimates reflect geographic variation in prevalence, risk factors, and prices. RESULTS: The economic burden associated with diagnosed diabetes (all ages) and undiagnosed diabetes, gestational diabetes, and prediabetes (adults) exceeded $322 billion in 2012, consisting of $244 billion in excess medical costs and $78 billion in reduced productivity. Combined, this amounts to an economic burden exceeding $1,000 for each American in 2012. This national estimate is 48% higher than the $218 billion estimate for 2007. The burden per case averaged $10,970 for diagnosed diabetes, $5,800 for gestational diabetes, $4,030 for undiagnosed diabetes, and $510 for prediabetes. CONCLUSIONS: These statistics underscore the importance of finding ways to reduce the burden of prediabetes and diabetes through prevention and treatment.

Can value-based insurance impose societal costs?

BACKGROUND: Among policy alternatives considered to reduce health care costs and improve outcomes, value-based insurance design (VBID) has emerged as a promising option. Most applications of VBID, however, have not used higher cost sharing to discourage specific services. In April 2011, the state of Oregon introduced a policy for public employees that required additional cost sharing for high-cost procedures such as total knee arthroplasty (TKA). OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to estimate the societal impact of higher co-pays for TKA using Oregon as a case study and building on recent work demonstrating the effects of knee osteoarthritis and surgical treatment on employment and disability outcomes. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate the societal impact in terms of quality of life, direct costs, and indirect costs of higher co-pays for TKA using Oregon as a case study. RESULTS: We found that TKA for a working population can generate societal benefits that offset the direct medical costs of the procedure. Delay in receiving surgical care, because of higher co-payment or other reasons, reduced the societal savings from TKA. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that payers moving toward value-based cost sharing should consider consequences beyond direct medical expenses.

Detecting type 2 diabetes and prediabetes among asymptomatic adults in the United States: modeling American Diabetes Association versus US Preventive Services Task Force diabetes screening guidelines.

BACKGROUND: Screening to detect prediabetes and diabetes enables early prevention and intervention. This study describes the number and characteristics of asymptomatic, undiagnosed adults in the United States who could be detected with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes using the American Diabetes Association (ADA) guidelines compared to the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines. METHODS: We developed predictive models for undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes using polytomous logistic regression from data on risk factors in the 2003-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 19,056). We applied these predictive models to the 2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which contains health care use data, to generate probabilities of undiagnosed diabetes and undetected prediabetes for each adult. We summed individual probabilities to estimate the number of adults who would be detected with prediabetes and/or type 2 diabetes if screened under ADA or USPSTF guidelines. We analyzed health care use patterns of people at high risk for diabetes. RESULTS: In 2010, 59.1 million adults met the USPSTF screening criteria including 24.4 million people with undetected prediabetes and 3.7 million people with undiagnosed diabetes. In comparison, among the 86.3 million people who met the ADA screening criteria, there were 33.9 million with undetected prediabetes and 4.6 million with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes. The ADA guidelines detected 38.9% more cases of prediabetes and 24.3% more cases of type 2 diabetes compared to the USPSTF guidelines. Subgroup analysis showed that ADA guidelines would detect 78% more cases of diabetes among the age 54 and younger population, in 40% more blacks, and in more than twice as many Hispanics than USPSTF guidelines. Only 58% of adults meeting ADA guidelines and 70% meeting USPSTF guidelines had ≥ 1 primary care office visit in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to USPSTF guidelines, ADA guidelines would screen more people and detect more cases of both prediabetes and type 2 diabetes, though a substantial percentage of patients with undetected cases had no contact with a primary care provider in 2010. Addressing the problem of large numbers of undetected prediabetes and type 2 diabetes cases will require new strategies for screening.

How does accounting for worker productivity affect the measured cost-effectiveness of lumbar discectomy?

BACKGROUND: Back pain attributable to lumbar disc herniation is a substantial cause of reduced workplace productivity. Disc herniation surgery is effective in reducing pain and improving function. However, few studies have examined the effects of surgery on worker productivity. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: We wished to determine the effect of disc herniation surgery on workers' earnings and missed workdays and how accounting for this effect influences the cost-effectiveness of surgery? METHODS: Regression models were estimated using data from the National Health Interview Survey to assess the effects of lower back pain caused by disc herniation on earnings and missed workdays. The results were incorporated into Markov models to compare societal costs associated with surgical and nonsurgical treatments for privately insured, working patients. Clinical outcomes and utilities were based on results from the Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial and additional clinical literature. RESULTS: We estimate average annual earnings of $47,619 with surgery and $45,694 with nonsurgical treatment. The increased earnings for patients receiving surgery as compared with nonsurgical treatment is equal to $1925 (95% CI, $1121-$2728). After surgery, we also estimate that workers receiving surgery miss, on average, 3 fewer days per year than if workers had received nonsurgical treatment (95% CI, 2.4-3.7 days). However, these fewer missed work days only partially offset the assumed 20 workdays missed to recover from surgery. More fully accounting for the effects of disc herniation surgery on productivity reduced the cost of surgery per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from $52,416 to $35,146 using a 4-year time horizon and from $27,359 to $4186 using an 8-year time horizon. According to a sensitivity analysis, the 4-year cost per QALY varies between $27,921 and $49,787 depending on model assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: Increased worker earnings resulting from disc herniation surgery may offset the increased direct medical costs associated with surgery. After accounting for the effects on productivity, disc herniation surgery was found to be a highly cost-effective surgery and may yield net societal savings if the benefits of outpatient and inpatient surgery persist beyond 6 and 12 years, respectively. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II, economic and decision analysis. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.