Exposure-response associations between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter and risks of hospital admission for major cardiovascular diseases: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate exposure-response associations between chronic exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and risks of the first hospital admission for major cardiovascular disease (CVD) subtypes. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Contiguous US. PARTICIPANTS: 59 761 494 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years during 2000-16. Calibrated PM2.5 predictions were linked to each participant's residential zip code as proxy exposure measurements. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk of the first hospital admission during follow-up for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, valvular heart disease, thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms, or a composite of these CVD subtypes. A causal framework robust against confounding bias and bias arising from errors in exposure measurements was developed for exposure-response estimations. RESULTS: Three year average PM2.5 exposure was associated with increased relative risks of first hospital admissions for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, heart failure, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, and thoracic and abdominal aortic aneurysms. For composite CVD, the exposure-response curve showed monotonically increased risk associated with PM2.5: compared with exposures ≤5 µg/m3 (the World Health Organization air quality guideline), the relative risk at exposures between 9 and 10 µg/m3, which encompassed the US national average of 9.7 µg/m3 during the study period, was 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.28 to 1.30). On an absolute scale, the risk of hospital admission for composite CVD increased from 2.59% with exposures ≤5 µg/m3 to 3.35% at exposures between 9 and 10 µg/m3. The effects persisted for at least three years after exposure to PM2.5. Age, education, accessibility to healthcare, and neighborhood deprivation level appeared to modify susceptibility to PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest that no safe threshold exists for the chronic effect of PM2.5 on overall cardiovascular health. Substantial benefits could be attained through adherence to the WHO air quality guideline.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 species and all-cause mortality among Medicare patients using mixtures analyses.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality is well-established; however, the role of individual species is less understood. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assess the overall effect of long-term exposure to PM2.5 as a mixture of species and identify the most harmful of those species while controlling for the others. METHODS: We looked at changes in mortality among Medicare participants 65 years of age or older from 2000 to 2018 in response to changes in annual levels of 15 PM2.5 components, namely: organic carbon, elemental carbon, nickel, lead, zinc, sulfate, potassium, vanadium, nitrate, silicon, copper, iron, ammonium, calcium, and bromine. Data on exposure were derived from high-resolution, spatio-temporal models which were then aggregated to ZIP code. We used the rate of deaths in each ZIP code per year as the outcome of interest. Covariates included demographic, temperature, socioeconomic, and access-to-care variables. We used a mixtures approach, a weighted quantile sum, to analyze the joint effects of PM2.5 species on mortality. We further looked at the effects of the components when PM2.5 mass levels were at concentrations below 8 µg/m3, and effect modification by sex, race, Medicaid status, and Census division. RESULTS: We found that for each decile increase in the levels of the PM2.5 mixture, the rate of all-cause mortality increased by 1.4% (95% CI: 1.3%-1.4%), the rate of cardiovascular mortality increased by 2.1% (95% CI: 2.0%-2.2%), and the rate of respiratory mortality increased by 1.7% (95% CI: 1.5%-1.9%). These effects estimates remained significant and slightly higher when we restricted to lower concentrations. The highest weights for harmful effects were due to organic carbon, nickel, zinc, sulfate, and vanadium. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5 species, as a mixture, increased the risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.

Long-term association of air pollution and incidence of lung cancer among older Americans: A national study in the Medicare cohort.

BACKGROUND: Despite strong evidence of the association of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure with an increased risk of lung cancer mortality, few studies had investigated associations of multiple pollutants simultaneously, or with incidence, or using causal methods. Disparities were also understudied. OBJECTIVES: We investigated long-term effects of PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), warm-season ozone, and particle radioactivity (PR) exposures on lung cancer incidence in a nationwide cohort. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study with Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥ 65 years) continuously enrolled in the fee-for-service program in the contiguous US from 2001 to 2016. Air pollution exposure was averaged across three years and assigned based on ZIP code of residence. We fitted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for lung cancer incidence, adjusted for individual- and neighborhood-level confounders. As a sensitivity analysis, we evaluated the causal relationships using inverse probability weights. We further assessed effect modifications by individual- and neighborhood-level covariates. RESULTS: We identified 166,860 lung cancer cases of 12,429,951 studied beneficiaries. In the multi-pollutant model, PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were statistically significantly associated with increased lung cancer incidence, while PR was marginally significantly associated. Specifically, the HR was 1.008 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.005, 1.011) per 1-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 1.013 (95% CI: 1.012, 1.013) per 1-ppb increase in NO2, and 1.005 (0.999, 1.012) per 1-mBq/m3 increase in PR. At low exposure levels, all pollutants were associated with increased lung cancer incidence. Men, older individuals, Blacks, and residents of low-income neighborhoods experienced larger effects of PM2.5 and PR. DISCUSSION: Long-term PM2.5, NO2, and PR exposures were independently associated with increased lung cancer incidence among the national elderly population. Low-exposure analysis indicated that current national standards for PM2.5 and NO2 were not restrictive enough to protect public health, underscoring the need for more stringent air quality regulations.

Additive effects of 10-year exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 and primary cancer incidence in American older adults.

Epidemiologic evidence on the relationships between air pollution and the risks of primary cancers other than lung cancer remained largely lacking. We aimed to examine associations of 10-year exposures to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with risks of breast, prostate, colorectal, and endometrial cancers. Methods: For each cancer, we constructed a separate cohort among the national Medicare beneficiaries during 2000 to 2016. We simultaneously examined the additive associations of six exposures, namely, moving average exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 over the year of diagnosis and previous 2 years, previous 3 to 5 years, and previous 6 to 10 years, with the risk of first cancer diagnosis after 10 years of follow-up, during which there was no cancer diagnosis. Results: The cohorts included 2.2 to 6.5 million subjects for different cancers. Exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 were associated with increased risks of colorectal and prostate cancers but were not associated with endometrial cancer risk. NO2 was associated with a decreased risk of breast cancer, while the association for PM2.5 remained inconclusive. At exposure levels below the newly updated World Health Organization Air Quality Guideline, we observed substantially larger associations between most exposures and the risks of all cancers, which were translated to hundreds to thousands new cancer cases per year within the cohort per unit increase in each exposure. Conclusions: These findings suggested substantial cancer burden was associated with exposures to PM2.5 and NO2, emphasizing the urgent need for strategies to mitigate air pollution levels.

Seasonal Temperature Variability and Mortality in the Medicare Population.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal temperature variability remains understudied and may be modified by climate change. Most temperature-mortality studies examine short-term exposures using time-series data. These studies are limited by regional adaptation, short-term mortality displacement, and an inability to observe longer-term relationships in temperature and mortality. Seasonal temperature and cohort analyses allow the long-term effects of regional climatic change on mortality to be analyzed. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to carry out one of the first investigations of seasonal temperature variability and mortality across the contiguous United States. We also investigated factors that modify this association. Using adapted quasi-experimental methods, we hoped to account for unobserved confounding and to investigate regional adaptation and acclimatization at the ZIP code level. METHODS: We examined the mean and standard deviation (SD) of daily temperature in the warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) season in the Medicare cohort from 2000 to 2016. This cohort comprised 622,427,230 y of person-time in all adults over the age of 65 y from 2000 to 2016. We used daily mean temperature obtained from gridMET to develop yearly seasonal temperature variables for each ZIP code. We used an adapted difference-in-difference approach model with a three-tiered clustering approach and meta-analysis to observe the relationship between temperature variability and mortality within ZIP codes. Effect modification was assessed with stratified analyses by race and population density. RESULTS: For every 1°C increase in the SD of warm and cold season temperature, the mortality rate increased by 1.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73%, 2.15%] and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.22%, 1.15%) respectively. We did not see significant effects for seasonal mean temperatures. Participants who were classified by Medicare into an "other" race group had smaller effects than those classified as White for Cold and Cold SD and areas with lower population density had larger effects for Warm SD. DISCUSSION: Warm and cold season temperature variability were significantly associated with increased mortality rates in U.S. individuals over the age of 65 y, even after controlling for seasonal temperature averages. Warm and cold season mean temperatures showed null effects on mortality. Cold SD had a larger effect size for those who were in the racial subgroup other, whereas Warm SD was more harmful for those living in lower population density areas. This study adds to the growing calls for urgent climate mitigation and environmental health adaptation and resiliency. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11588.

Intermediate and long-term exposure to air pollution and temperature and the extracellular microRNA profile of participants in the normative aging study (NAS).

BACKGROUND: The molecular effects of intermediate and long-term exposure to air pollution and temperature, such as those on extracellular microRNA (ex-miRNA) are not well understood but may have clinical consequences. OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between exposure to ambient air pollution and temperature and ex-miRNA profiles. METHODS: Our study population consisted of 734 participants in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) between 1999 and 2015. We used high-resolution models to estimate four-week, eight-week, twelve-week, six-month, and one-year moving averages of PM2.5, O3, NO2, and ambient temperature based on geo-coded residential addresses. The outcome of interest was the extracellular microRNA (ex-miRNA) profile of each participant over time. We used a longitudinal quantile regression approach to estimate the association between the exposures and each ex-miRNA. Results were corrected for multiple comparisons and ex-miRNAs that were still significantly associated with the exposures were further analyzed using KEGG pathway analysis and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. RESULTS: We found 151 significant associations between levels of PM2.5, O3, NO2, and ambient temperature and 82 unique ex-miRNAs across multiple quantiles. Most of the significant results were associations with intermediate-term exposure to O3, long-term exposure to PM2.5, and both intermediate and long-term exposure to ambient temperature. The exposures were most often associated with the 75th and 90th percentile of the outcomes. Pathway analyses of significant ex-miRNAs revealed their involvement in biological pathways involving cell function and communication as well as clinical diseases such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and neurological disease. CONCLUSION: Our results show that intermediate and long-term exposure to all our exposures of interest were associated with changes in the ex-miRNA profile of study participants. Further studies on environmental risk factors and ex-miRNAs are warranted.

Short-term air pollution and temperature exposure and changes in the extracellular microRNA profile of Normative Aging Study (NAS) participants.

BACKGROUND: While the health effects of air pollution and temperature are widely studied, the molecular effects are poorly understood. Extracellular microRNAs (ex-miRNAs) have the potential to serve as diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers and/or to act as intercellular signaling molecules that mediate the effects of environmental exposures on health outcomes. METHODS: We examined the relationship between short-term exposure to air pollution and ambient temperature and the ex-miRNA profiles of participants in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) from 1999 to 2015. Our exposures were defined as same-day, two-day, three-day, one-week, two-week, and three-week moving averages of PM2.5, NO2, O3, and temperature which were derived from high-resolution spatio-temporal models. The ex-miRNA profiles of the subjects were obtained during follow-up visits. We analyzed the data using a longitudinal quantile regression model adjusted for individual covariates, batch effects, and time trends. We adjusted for multiple comparisons using a false discovery rate (FDR) correction. Ex-miRNAs that were significantly associated with exposures were further investigated using pathway analyses. RESULTS: We found that all the examined exposures were associated with changes in ex-miRNA profiles in our study, particularly PM2.5 which was responsible for most of the statistically significant results. We found 110 statistically significant exposure-outcome relationships that revealed associations with the levels of 52 unique ex-miRNAs. Pathway analyses showed these ex-miRNAs have been linked to target mRNAs, genes, and biological mechanisms that could affect virtually every organ system, and as such may be linked to multiple clinical disease presentations such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and neurological disease. CONCLUSIONS: Air pollution and temperature exposures were significantly associated with alterations in the ex-miRNA profiles of NAS subjects with possible biological consequences.

Associations between long-term air pollution exposure and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases among American older adults.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Numerous studies have linked air pollution with cardiovascular diseases. Fewer studies examined the associations at low concentration levels or assessed potential modifiers. Some investigations only examined hospitalizations, which can miss incident cases. This study aims to address these gaps through a nationwide cohort study of Medicare enrollees. METHODS: Our study cohort comprise all Medicare enrollees (≥65 years old) continuously enrolled in the fee-for-service program and both Medicare part A and B across the contiguous U.S. from 2000 to 2016. We examined the associations of population-weighted ZIP code-level annual average PM2.5, NO2, and warm-season O3 (May-October), with the first diagnoses of atrial fibrillation (AF), congestive heart failure (CHF), and stroke. We fit multi-pollutant Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for individual demographic characteristics and area-level covariates. We further examined these associations at low pollutant concentration levels and the potential effect modifications by race/ethnicity and comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia). RESULTS: Elevated PM2.5 and NO2 levels were associated with increased incidence of AF, CHF, and stroke. For each 1 µg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5, hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.0059 (95%CI: 1.0054-1.0064), 1.0260 (95%CI: 1.0256-1.0264), and 1.0279 (95%CI: 1.0274-1.0284), respectively. For each1 ppb increase in annual NO2, HRs are 1.0057 (95%CI: 1.0056-1.0059), 1.0112 (95%CI: 1.0110-1.0113), and 1.0095 (95%CI: 1.0093-1.0096), respectively. For warm-season O3, each 1 ppb increase was associated with increased incidence of CHF (HR=1.0035, 95%CI: 1.0033-1.0037) and stroke (HR=1.0026, 95%CI: 1.0023-1.0028). Larger magnitudes of HRs were observed when restricted to pollutants levels lower than NAAQS standards. Generally higher risks were observed for Black people and diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to PM2.5, NO2, and warm-season O3 were associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular diseases, even at low pollutant concentration levels. Black people and people with diabetes were found to be vulnerable populations.

Associations between long-term exposures to airborne PM2.5 components and mortality in Massachusetts: mixture analysis exploration.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have documented PM2.5's links with adverse health outcomes. Comparatively fewer studies have evaluated specific PM2.5 components. The lack of exposure measurements and high correlation among different PM2.5 components are two limitations. METHODS: We applied a novel exposure prediction model to obtain annual Census tract-level concentrations of 15 PM2.5 components (Zn, V, Si, Pb, Ni, K, Fe, Cu, Ca, Br, SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, OC, EC) in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2015, to which we matched geocoded deaths. All non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality were examined for the population aged 18 or over. Weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression models were used to examine the cumulative associations between PM2.5 components mixture and outcomes and each component's contributions to the cumulative associations. We have fit WQS models on 15 PM2.5 components and a priori identified source groups (heavy fuel oil combustion, biomass burning, crustal matter, non-tailpipe traffic source, tailpipe traffic source, secondary particles from power plants, secondary particles from agriculture, unclear source) for the 15 PM2.5 components. Total PM2.5 mass analysis and single component associations were also conducted through quasi-Poisson regression models. RESULTS: Positive cumulative associations between the components mixture and all three outcomes were observed from the WQS models. Components with large contribution to the cumulative associations included K, OC, and Fe. Biomass burning, traffic emissions, and secondary particles from power plants were identified as important source contributing to the cumulative associations. Mortality rate ratios for cardiovascular mortality were of greater magnitude than all non-accidental mortality and respiratory mortality, which is also observed in cumulative associations estimated from WQS, total PM2.5 mass analysis, and single component associations. CONCLUSION: We have found positive associations between the mixture of 15 PM2.5 components and all non-accidental mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and respiratory mortality. Among these components, Fe, K, and OC have been identified as having important contribution to the cumulative associations. The WQS results also suggests potential source effects from biomass burning, traffic emissions, and secondary particles from power plants.

Stringency of COVID-19 Containment Response Policies and Air Quality Changes: A Global Analysis across 1851 Cities.

The COVID-19 containment response policies (CRPs) had a major impact on air quality (AQ). These CRPs have been time-varying and location-specific. So far, despite having numerous studies on the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on AQ, a knowledge gap remains on the association between stringency of CRPs and AQ changes across the world, regions, nations, and cities. Here, we show that globally across 1851 cities (each more than 300 000 people) in 149 countries, after controlling for the impacts of relevant covariates (e.g., meteorology), Sentinel-5P satellite-observed nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels decreased by 4.9% (95% CI: 2.2, 7.6%) during lockdowns following stringent CRPs compared to pre-CRPs. The NO2 levels did not change significantly during moderate CRPs and even increased during mild CRPs by 2.3% (95% CI: 0.7, 4.0%), which was 6.8% (95% CI: 2.0, 12.0%) across Europe and Central Asia, possibly due to population avoidance of public transportation in favor of private transportation. Among 1768 cities implementing stringent CRPs, we observed the most NO2 reduction in more populated and polluted cities. Our results demonstrate that AQ improved when and where stringent COVID-19 CRPs were implemented, changed less under moderate CRPs, and even deteriorated under mild CRPs. These changes were location-, region-, and CRP-specific.

The effect of long-term exposure to air pollution and seasonal temperature on hospital admissions with cardiovascular and respiratory disease in the United States: A difference-in-differences analysis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have simultaneously examined the effect of long-term exposure to air pollution and ambient temperature on the rate of hospital admissions with cardiovascular and respiratory disease using causal inference methods. METHODS: We used a variation of a difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the effects of long-term exposure to warm-season temperature, cold-season temperature, NO2, O3, and PM2.5 on the rate of hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD), myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and respiratory diseases from 2001 to 2016 among Medicare beneficiaries who use fee-for-service programs. We computed the rate of admissions by zip code and year. Covariates included demographic and socioeconomic variables which were obtained from the decennial Census, the American Community Survey, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and the Dartmouth Health Atlas. As a secondary analysis, we restricted the analysis to zip code-years that had exposure to low concentrations of our pollutants. RESULTS: PM2.5 was associated with a significant increase in the absolute rate of annual admissions with cardiovascular disease by 47.71 admissions (95 % CI: 41.25-56.05) per 100,000 person-years, myocardial infarction by 7.44 admissions (95 % CI: 5.53-9.63) per 100,000 person-years, and 18.58 respiratory admissions (95 % CI: 12.42-23.72) for each one µg/m3 increase in two-year average levels. O3 significantly increased the rates of all the studied outcomes. NO2 was associated with a decreased rate of admissions with MI by 0.83 admissions (95 % CI: 0.10-1.55) per 100,000 person-years but increased rate of admissions for respiratory disease by 3.16 admissions (95 % CI: 1.34-5.24) per 100,000 person-years. Warmer cold-season temperature was associated with a decreased admissions rate for all outcomes. CONCLUSION: Air pollutants, particularly PM2.5 and O3, increased the rate of hospital admissions with cardiovascular and respiratory disease among the elderly, while higher cold-season temperatures decreased the rate of admissions with these conditions.

Associations of short-term exposure to air pollution and increased ambient temperature with psychiatric hospital admissions in older adults in the USA: a case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the associations between ambient environmental exposures and the risk of acute episodes of psychiatric disorders. We aimed to estimate the link between short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants, temperature, and acute psychiatric hospital admissions in adults aged 65 years and older in the USA. METHODS: For this study, we included all people (aged ≥65 years) enrolled in the Medicare programme in the USA who had an emergency or urgent hospital admission for a psychiatric disorder recorded between Jan 31, 2000, and Dec 31, 2016. We applied a case-crossover design to study the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution (fine particulate matter [PM2·5], ozone, and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]), ambient temperature, and the risk of acute hospital admissions for depression, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder in this population. The percentage change in the risk of hospital admission and annual absolute risk differences were estimated. FINDINGS: For each 5°C increase in short-term exposure to cold season temperature, the relative risk of acute hospital admission increased by 3·66% (95% CI 3·06-4·26) for depression, by 3·03% (2·04-4·02) for schizophrenia, and by 3·52% (2·38-4·68) for bipolar disorder in the US Medicare population. Increased short-term exposure to PM2·5 and NO2 was also associated with a significant increase in the risk of acute hospital admissions for psychiatric disorders. Each 5 µg/m3 increase in PM2·5 was associated with an increase in hospital admission rates of 0·62% (95% CI 0·23-1·02) for depression, 0·77% (0·11-1·44) for schizophrenia, and 1·19% (0·49-1·90) for bipolar disorder; each 5 parts per billion (ppb) increase in NO2, meanwhile, was linked to an increase in hospital admission rates of 0·35% (95% CI 0·03-0·66) for depression and 0·64% (0·20-1·08) for schizophrenia. No such associations were found with warm season temperature. INTERPRETATION: In the US Medicare population, short-term exposure to elevated concentrations of PM2·5 and NO2 and cold season ambient temperature were significantly associated with an increased risk of hospital admissions for psychiatric disorders. Considering the increasing burden of psychiatric disorders in the US population, these findings suggest that intervening on air pollution and ambient temperature levels through stricter environmental regulations or climate mitigation could help ease the psychiatric health-care burden. FUNDING: US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, US Environmental Protection Agency, and US National Institute on Aging.

Associations between Air Pollution and Psychiatric Symptoms in The Normative Aging Study.

Background: Environmental risk factors for psychiatric health are poorly identified. We examined the association between air pollution and psychiatric symptoms, which are often precursors to the development of psychiatric disorders. Methods: This study included 570 participants in the US Veterans Administration (VA) Normative Aging Study and 1,114 visits (defined as an onsite follow-up at the VA with physical examination and questionnaires) from 2000-2014 with information on the Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI) to assess their psychiatric symptom levels. Differences in the three BSI global measures (Global Severity Index - GSI, Positive Symptom Distress Index - PSDI and Positive Symptom Total - PST) were reported per interquartile (IQR) increase of residential address-specific air pollutants levels (fine particulate matter - PM2.5, ozone - O3, nitrogen dioxide - NO2) at averages of 1 week, 4 weeks, 8 weeks and 1 year prior to the visit using generalized additive mixed effects models. We also evaluated modification by neighborhood factors. Results: On average, among the NAS sample (average age, 72.4 yrs. (standard deviation: 6.7 yrs.)), an IQR increase in 1- and 4- week averages of NO2 before visit was associated with a PSDI T score (indicator for psychiatric symptom intensity) increase of 1.60 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.31, 2.89), 1.71 (95% CI: 0.18, 3.23), respectively. Similarly, for each IQR increase in 1- and 4-week averages of ozone before visit, PSDI T-score increased by 1.66 (95% CI: 0.68, 2.65), and 1.36 (95% CI: 0.23, 2.49), respectively. Stronger associations were observed for ozone and PSDI in low house value and low household income areas. No associations were found for PM2.5. Conclusions: Exposure to gaseous air pollutants was associated with higher intensity of psychiatric symptoms among a cohort of older men, particularly in communities with lower socio-economic or housing conditions.

Low-Concentration Air Pollution and Mortality in American Older Adults: A National Cohort Analysis (2001-2017).

Mounting epidemiological evidence has documented the associations between long-term exposure to multiple air pollutants and increased mortality. There is a pressing need to determine whether risks persist at low concentrations including below current national standards. Air pollution levels have decreased in the United States, and better understanding of the health effects of low-level air pollution is essential for the amendment of National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). A nationwide, population-based, open cohort study was conducted to estimate the association between long-term exposure to low-level PM2.5, NO2, O3, and all-cause mortality. The study population included all Medicare enrollees (ages 65 years or older) in the contiguous U.S. from 2001 to 2017. We further defined three low-exposure subcohorts comprised of Medicare enrollees who were always exposed to low-level PM2.5 (annual mean ≤12-µg/m3), NO2 (annual mean ≤53-ppb), and O3 (warm-season mean ≤50-ppb), respectively, over the study period. Of the 68.7-million Medicare enrollees, 33.1% (22.8-million, mean age 75.9 years), 93.8% (64.5-million, mean age 76.2 years), and 65.0% (44.7-million, mean age 75.6 years) were always exposed to low-level annual PM2.5, annual NO2, and warm-season O3 over the study period, respectively. Among the low-exposure cohorts, a 10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, 10-ppb increase in NO2, and 10-ppb increase in warm-season O3, were, respectively, associated with an increase in mortality rate ranging between 10 and 13%, 2 and 4%, and 12 and 14% in single-pollutant models, and between 6 and 8%, 1 and 3%, and 9 and 11% in tripollutant models, using three statistical approaches. There was strong evidence of linearity in concentration-response relationships for PM2.5 and NO2 at levels below the current NAAQS, suggesting that no safe threshold exists for health-harmful pollution levels. For O3, the concentration-response relationship shows an increasingly positive association at levels above 40-ppb. In conclusion, exposure to low levels of PM2.5, NO2, and warm-season O3 was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality.

Long-Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution Is Associated With 30-Day Readmissions and Hospital Visits Among Patients With Heart Failure.

Background Long-term air pollution exposure is a significant risk factor for inpatient hospital admissions in the general population. However, we lack information on whether long-term air pollution exposure is a risk factor for hospital readmissions, particularly in individuals with elevated readmission rates. Methods and Results We determined the number of readmissions and total hospital visits (outpatient visits+emergency room visits+inpatient admissions) for 20 920 individuals with heart failure. We used quasi-Poisson regression models to associate annual average fine particulate matter at the date of heart failure diagnosis with the number of hospital visits and 30-day readmissions. We used inverse probability weights to balance the distribution of confounders and adjust for the competing risk of death. Models were adjusted for age, race, sex, smoking status, urbanicity, year of diagnosis, short-term fine particulate matter exposure, comorbid disease, and socioeconomic status. A 1-µg/m3 increase in fine particulate matter was associated with a 9.31% increase (95% CI, 7.85%-10.8%) in total hospital visits, a 4.35% increase (95% CI, 1.12%-7.68%) in inpatient admissions, and a 14.2% increase (95% CI, 8.41%-20.2%) in 30-day readmissions. Associations were robust to different modeling approaches. Conclusions These results highlight the potential for air pollution to play a role in hospital use, particularly hospital visits and readmissions. Given the elevated frequency of hospitalizations and readmissions among patients with heart failure, these results also represent an important insight into modifiable environmental risk factors that may improve outcomes and reduce hospital use among patients with heart failure.

Long-Term Association of Air Pollution and Hospital Admissions Among Medicare Participants Using a Doubly Robust Additive Model.

BACKGROUND: Studies examining the nonfatal health outcomes of exposure to air pollution have been limited by the number of pollutants studied and focus on short-term exposures. METHODS: We examined the relationship between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 micrometers (PM2.5), NO2, and tropospheric ozone and hospital admissions for 4 cardiovascular and respiratory outcomes (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and pneumonia) among the Medicare population of the United States. We used a doubly robust method for our statistical analysis, which relies on both inverse probability weighting and adjustment in the outcome model to account for confounding. The results from this regression are on an additive scale. We further looked at this relationship at lower pollutant concentrations, which are consistent with typical exposure levels in the United States, and among potentially susceptible subgroups. RESULTS: Long-term exposure to fine PM2.5 was associated with an increased risk of all outcomes with the highest effect seen for stroke with a 0.0091% (95% CI, 0.0086-0.0097) increase in the risk of stroke for each 1-µg/m3 increase in annual levels. This translated to 2536 (95% CI, 2383-2691) cases of hospital admissions with ischemic stroke per year, which can be attributed to each 1-unit increase in fine particulate matter levels among the study population. NO2 was associated with an increase in the risk of admission with stroke by 0.00059% (95% CI, 0.00039-0.00075) and atrial fibrillation by 0.00129% (95% CI, 0.00114-0.00148) per ppb and tropospheric ozone was associated with an increase in the risk of admission with pneumonia by 0.00413% (95% CI, 0.00376-0.00447) per parts per billion. At lower concentrations, all pollutants were consistently associated with an increased risk for all our studied outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to air pollutants poses a significant risk to cardiovascular and respiratory health among the elderly population in the United States, with the greatest increase in the association per unit of exposure occurring at lower concentrations.

Long-term effects of PM2·5 on neurological disorders in the American Medicare population: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Accumulating evidence links fine particulate matter (PM2·5) to premature mortality, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. However, less is known about the influence of PM2·5 on neurological disorders. We aimed to investigate the effect of long-term PM2·5 exposure on development of Parkinson's disease or Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. METHODS: We did a longitudinal cohort study in which we constructed a population-based nationwide open cohort including all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (aged ≥65 years) in the contiguous United States (2000-16) with no exclusions. We assigned PM2·5 postal code (ie, ZIP code) concentrations based on mean annual predictions from a high-resolution model. To accommodate our very large dataset, we applied Cox-equivalent Poisson models with parallel computing to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for first hospital admission for Parkinson's disease or Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, adjusting for potential confounders in the health models. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2016, of 63 038 019 individuals who were aged 65 years or older during the study period, we identified 1·0 million cases of Parkinson's disease and 3·4 million cases of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias based on primary and secondary diagnosis billing codes. For each 5 µg/m3 increase in annual PM2·5 concentrations, the HR was 1·13 (95% CI 1·12-1·14) for first hospital admission for Parkinson's disease and 1·13 (1·12-1·14) for first hospital admission for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. For both outcomes, there was strong evidence of linearity at PM2·5 concentrations less than 16 µg/m3 (95th percentile of the PM2·5 distribution), followed by a plateaued association with increasingly larger confidence bands. INTERPRETATION: We provide evidence that exposure to annual mean PM2·5 in the USA is significantly associated with an increased hazard of first hospital admission with Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. For the ageing American population, improving air quality to reduce PM2·5 concentrations to less than current national standards could yield substantial health benefits by reducing the burden of neurological disorders. FUNDING: The Health Effects Institute, The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, The National Institute on Aging, and the HERCULES Center.

Long-term exposure to PM2.5 and ozone and hospital admissions of Medicare participants in the Southeast USA.

We examined the association between average annual fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone and first hospital admissions of Medicare participants for stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, myocardial infarction (MI), lung cancer, and heart failure (HF). Annual average PM2.5 and ozone levels were estimated using high-resolution spatio-temporal models. We fit a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model, using stabilized inverse probability weights (IPWs) to account for the competing risk of death and confounding. Analyses were then repeated after restricting to exposure levels below the current U.S. standards. The results showed that PM2.5 was significantly associated with an increased hazard of admissions for all studied outcomes; the highest observed being a 6.1% (95% CI: 5.9%-6.2%) increase in the hazard of admissions with pneumonia for each µg/m3 increase in particulate levels. Ozone was also significantly associated with an increase in the risk of first hospital admissions of all outcomes. The hazard of pneumonia increased by 3.0% (95% CI: 2.9%-3.1%) for each ppb increase in the ozone level. Our results reveal a need to regulate long-term ozone exposure, and that associations persist below current PM2.5 standards.