A spatially explicit hierarchical model to characterize population viability.

Many of the processes that govern the viability of animal populations vary spatially, yet population viability analyses (PVAs) that account explicitly for spatial variation are rare. We develop a PVA model that incorporates autocorrelation into the analysis of local demographic information to produce spatially explicit estimates of demography and viability at relatively fine spatial scales across a large spatial extent. We use a hierarchical, spatial, autoregressive model for capture-recapture data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of adult survival (ϕad ), juvenile survival (ϕjuv ), and juvenile-to-adult transition rates (ψ), and a spatial autoregressive model for recruitment data from multiple locations to obtain spatially explicit estimates of recruitment (R). We combine local estimates of demographic rates in stage-structured population models to estimate the rate of population change (λ), then use estimates of λ (and its uncertainty) to forecast changes in local abundance and produce spatially explicit estimates of viability (probability of extirpation, Pex ). We apply the model to demographic data for the Sonoran desert tortoise (Gopherus morafkai) collected across its geographic range in Arizona. There was modest spatial variation in λ^ (0.94-1.03), which reflected spatial variation in ϕ^ad (0.85-0.95), ϕ^juv (0.70-0.89), and ψ^ (0.07-0.13). Recruitment data were too sparse for spatially explicit estimates; therefore, we used a range-wide estimate ( R^  = 0.32 1-yr-old females per female per year). Spatial patterns in demographic rates were complex, but ϕ^ad , ϕ^juv , and λ^ tended to be lower and ψ^ higher in the northwestern portion of the range. Spatial patterns in Pex varied with local abundance. For local abundances >500, Pex was near zero (<0.05) across most of the range after 100 yr; as abundances decreased, however, Pex approached one in the northwestern portion of the range and remained low elsewhere. When local abundances were <50, western and southern populations were vulnerable (Pex  > 0.25). This approach to PVA offers the potential to reveal spatial patterns in demography and viability that can inform conservation and management at multiple spatial scales, provide insight into scale-related investigations in population ecology, and improve basic ecological knowledge of landscape-level phenomena.

A strategy for prioritizing threats and recovery actions for at-risk species.

Ensuring the persistence of at-risk species depends on implementing conservation actions that ameliorate threats. We developed and implemented a method to quantify the relative importance of threats and to prioritize recovery actions based on their potential to affect risk to Mojave desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii). We used assessments of threat importance and elasticities of demographic rates from population matrix models to estimate the relative contributions of threats to overall increase in risk to the population. We found that urbanization, human access, military operations, disease, and illegal use of off highway vehicles are the most serious threats to the desert tortoise range-wide. These results suggest that, overall, recovery actions that decrease habitat loss, predation, and crushing will be most effective for recovery; specifically, we found that habitat restoration, topic-specific environmental education, and land acquisition are most likely to result in the greatest decrease in risk to the desert tortoise across its range. In addition, we have developed an application that manages the conceptual model and all supporting information and calculates threat severity and potential effectiveness of recovery actions. Our analytical approach provides an objective process for quantifying threats, prioritizing recovery actions, and developing monitoring metrics for those actions for adaptive management of any at-risk species.

Sexual selection drives speciation in an Amazonian frog.

One proposed mechanism of speciation is divergent sexual selection, whereby divergence in female preferences and male signals results in behavioural isolation. Despite the appeal of this hypothesis, evidence for it remains inconclusive. Here, we present several lines of evidence that sexual selection is driving behavioural isolation and speciation among populations of an Amazonian frog (Physalaemus petersi). First, sexual selection has promoted divergence in male mating calls and female preferences for calls between neighbouring populations, resulting in strong behavioural isolation. Second, phylogenetic analysis indicates that populations have become fixed for alternative call types several times throughout the species' range, and coalescent analysis rejects genetic drift as a cause for this pattern, suggesting that this divergence is due to selection. Finally, gene flow estimated with microsatellite loci is an average of 30 times lower between populations with different call types than between populations separated by a similar geographical distance with the same call type, demonstrating genetic divergence and incipient speciation. Taken together, these data provide strong evidence that sexual selection is driving behavioural isolation and speciation, supporting sexual selection as a cause for speciation in the wild.

A mechanism for diversity in warning signals: conspicuousness versus toxicity in poison frogs.

Many animals advertise their chemical defense to predators with conspicuous coloration and unpalatability, but little is known about the information in these signal elements. To effectively avoid predation, is it more advantageous to invest in increased conspicuousness or greater noxiousness, or to allocate equally to both signal modalities? Using natural variation among poison frog species measured with spectral reflectance and toxicity assays, we tested the relative importance of warning signal components with predator-learning and avoidance experiments. We demonstrate that closely related species use alternative strategies: increasing either conspicuousness or toxicity affords equivalent avoidance by predators and provides protection to nontoxic mimic species. These equally effective predator avoidance tactics demonstrate different aposematic solutions for two potentially costly signal components, providing a mechanism for natural diversity in warning signals.

Predator learning favours mimicry of a less-toxic model in poison frogs.

Batesian mimicry--resemblance of a toxic model by an edible mimic--depends on deceiving predators. Mimetic advantage is considered to be dependent on frequency because an increase in mimic abundance leads to breakdown of the warning signal. Where multiple toxic species are available, batesian polymorphism is predicted--that is, mimics diversify to match sympatric models. Despite the prevalence of batesian mimicry in nature, batesian polymorphism is relatively rare. Here we explore a poison-frog mimicry complex comprising two parapatric models and a geographically dimorphic mimic that shows monomorphism where models co-occur. Contrary to classical predictions, our toxicity assays, field observations and spectral reflectances show that mimics resemble the less-toxic and less-abundant model. We examine "stimulus generalization" as a mechanism for this non-intuitive result with learning experiments using naive avian predators and live poison frogs. We find that predators differ in avoidance generalization depending on toxicity of the model, conferring greater protection to mimics resembling the less-toxic model owing to overlap of generalized avoidance curves. Our work supports a mechanism of toxicity-dependent stimulus generalization, revealing an additional solution for batesian mimicry where multiple models coexist.

Evolution of dietary specialization and chemical defense in poison frogs (Dendrobatidae): a comparative analysis.

Defensive mechanisms, including noxious or toxic substances, are favored by predation-driven natural selection. The acquisition of noxious/toxic substances can be either endogenous, in which the substances are produced by the organism, or exogenous, in which the substances are produced by another organism and are sequestered. Evidence indicates that the defensive skin alkaloids of Neotropical poison frogs (Dendrobatidae) have an exogenous source: a diet of ants and other small alkaloid-containing arthropods, which we term the diet-toxicity hypothesis. A critical prediction of the diet-toxicity hypothesis is that independent origins of dietary specialization will be found to be correlated with independent origins of skin alkaloids. We tested this prediction in an integrated framework using comparative methods with new and published data on feeding ecology and chemical defense for 15 species of dendrobatids in five genera. We found a significant correlation between alkaloid profiles and degree of dietary specialization. This reveals a recurring association of dietary specialization and alkaloid sequestration in dendrobatids, which suggests parallel evolutionary trends in the origins of defensive mechanisms.

Novel relationships among hyloid frogs inferred from 12S and 16S mitochondrial DNA sequences.

Advanced frogs (Neobatrachia) are usually divided into two taxa, Ranoidea (the firmisternal frogs) and Hyloidea (all other neobatrachians). We investigated phylogenetic relationships among several groups of Hyloidea using 12S and 16S rRNA mitochondrial gene sequences and tested explicit relationships of certain problematic hyloid taxa using a sample of 93 neobatrachians. Parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference methods suggest that both the Ranoidea and Hyloidea are well-supported monophyletic groups. We reject three hypotheses using parametric bootstrap simulation: (1) Dendrobatidae lies within the Ranoidea; (2) The group containing Hylidae, Pseudidae, and Centrolenidae is monophyletic; and (3) Brachycephalus is part of Bufonidae.