RESUMO
Closures of care homes have received considerable public attention. Fee levels and the cost of upgrading homes to meet the national minimum standards have been identified as the main factors influencing closures. The present paper compares private residential homes, dual-registered homes and nursing homes for older people which have closed between 1996 and 2001 with homes which have remained open. Homes which closed tended to be: smaller; to have had lower occupancy levels in 1996; to be the only home run by the organisation; to occupy converted buildings; to occupy multi-storey buildings, and if so, to have no lift; to have more shared bedrooms; and to have en suite facilities in none or only some of the bedrooms. These factors were interrelated and the effect of these variables in combination was examined using multivariate (logistic regression) analysis. Among the homes which remained open, only 34% provided at least 80% of places in single rooms, which was to have become the national minimum standard for existing homes until the standards were amended in March 2003. A separate analysis of data on social climate found that the homes with a more positive social environment were those most likely to have closed. The findings support the view that there is likely to be an increase in the importance of homes run by corporate providers relative to homes run as single, owner-managed homes, with a consequent reduction in choice for potential residents. At the same time, projections of future demand in a range of countries indicate that a considerable increase in provision will be required to meet the expected growth in the population of dependent older people, while developments in alternative forms of accommodation are unlikely to meet the growth in demand in the foreseeable future.