Text mining for disease surveillance in veterinary clinical data: part one, the language of veterinary clinical records and searching for words.

The development of natural language processing techniques for deriving useful information from unstructured clinical narratives is a fast-paced and rapidly evolving area of machine learning research. Large volumes of veterinary clinical narratives now exist curated by projects such as the Small Animal Veterinary Surveillance Network (SAVSNET) and VetCompass, and the application of such techniques to these datasets is already (and will continue to) improve our understanding of disease and disease patterns within veterinary medicine. In part one of this two part article series, we discuss the importance of understanding the lexical structure of clinical records and discuss the use of basic tools for filtering records based on key words and more complex rule based pattern matching approaches. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches highlighting the on-going potential value in using these "traditional" approaches but ultimately recognizing that these approaches constrain how effectively information retrieval can be automated. This sets the scene for the introduction of machine-learning methodologies and the plethora of opportunities for automation of information extraction these present which is discussed in part two of the series.

Evaluating ChatGPT text mining of clinical records for companion animal obesity monitoring.

BACKGROUND: Veterinary clinical narratives remain a largely untapped resource for addressing complex diseases. Here we compare the ability of a large language model (ChatGPT) and a previously developed regular expression (RegexT) to identify overweight body condition scores (BCS) in veterinary narratives pertaining to companion animals. METHODS: BCS values were extracted from 4415 anonymised clinical narratives using either RegexT or by appending the narrative to a prompt sent to ChatGPT, prompting the model to return the BCS information. Data were manually reviewed for comparison. RESULTS: The precision of RegexT was higher (100%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 94.81%-100%) than that of ChatGPT (89.3%, 95% CI 82.75%-93.64%). However, the recall of ChatGPT (100%, 95% CI 96.18%-100%) was considerably higher than that of RegexT (72.6%, 95% CI 63.92%-79.94%). LIMITATIONS: Prior anonymisation and subtle prompt engineering are needed to improve ChatGPT output. CONCLUSIONS: Large language models create diverse opportunities and, while complex, present an intuitive interface to information. However, they require careful implementation to avoid unpredictable errors.

Transarterial therapies in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma eligible for transarterial embolization: a US cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of transarterial radioembolization (TARE) versus conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) and drug-eluting beads chemoembolization (DEE-TACE) for patients with unresectable early- to intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). DESIGN: A cohort-based Markov model with a five-year time horizon was developed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the three embolization treatments. Upon entering the model, patients with HCC received either TARE or one of the two other embolization treatments. Patients remained in a "watch and wait" state for tumor downstaging that allowed them to move to health states such as liver transplant, resection, systemic therapies, or cure. Clinical input parameters were retrieved from the published literature, and where values could not be sourced, assumptions were made and validated by clinical experts. Health benefits were quantified using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost input parameters were obtained from various sources, including the Medicare Cost Report, IBM® Micromedex RED BOOK, and published literature. RESULTS: At five years, TARE was found to be cost-saving (saving $15,779 per person compared to cTACE) and produced 0.33 more QALYs per person than cTACE. TARE cost $13,696 more but produced 0.33 more QALYs than DEE-TACE, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,474 per QALY gained at five years. After accounting for parameter uncertainty, the likelihood of TARE being cost-effective was at least 90% against all comparators at a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: TARE produces more QALYs than cTACE and DEE-TACE, with a high probability of being cost-effective against both comparators.

The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guideline recommends the use of transarterial radioembolization (TARE), conventional (cTACE), or drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEE-TACE) for treating hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of TARE versus two alternative embolization treatments (cTACE and DEE-TACE) in treating patients with unresectable early- to intermediate-stage HCC.A cohort-based Markov model was developed to analyze the costs and benefits of these treatments from a US healthcare perspective within a 5-year time horizon. A 20-year time horizon was assessed as a scenario. In the model, patients were assigned to receive TARE, cTACE, or DEE-TACE and remained in the "watch and wait" stage for tumor downstaging. Data used in the model was taken from previous studies and in consultation with clinical experts. The benefits of the treatments were measured by considering the impact on the patient's quality of life. The costs associated with the treatments were obtained from various sources, including reports, publicly available databases, and published literature.The findings show that TARE is not only cost-saving compared to cTACE but also results in a higher number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per person. While TARE was more expensive than DEE-TACE, it produced more QALYs, further indicating more favorable patient outcomes and overall treatment effectiveness. These findings could potentially impact resource allocation and decision-making for the treatment of HCC.

Trends in invasive bacterial diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of prospective surveillance data from 30 countries and territories in the IRIS Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Consortium was established to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus agalactiae. We aimed to analyse the incidence and distribution of these diseases during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the 2 years preceding the pandemic. METHODS: For this prospective analysis, laboratories in 30 countries and territories representing five continents submitted surveillance data from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 2, 2022, to private projects within databases in PubMLST. The impact of COVID-19 containment measures on the overall number of cases was analysed, and changes in disease distributions by patient age and serotype or group were examined. Interrupted time-series analyses were done to quantify the impact of pandemic response measures and their relaxation on disease rates, and autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to estimate effect sizes and forecast counterfactual trends by hemisphere. FINDINGS: Overall, 116 841 cases were analysed: 76 481 in 2018-19, before the pandemic, and 40 360 in 2020-21, during the pandemic. During the pandemic there was a significant reduction in the risk of disease caused by S pneumoniae (risk ratio 0·47; 95% CI 0·40-0·55), H influenzae (0·51; 0·40-0·66) and N meningitidis (0·26; 0·21-0·31), while no significant changes were observed for S agalactiae (1·02; 0·75-1·40), which is not transmitted via the respiratory route. No major changes in the distribution of cases were observed when stratified by patient age or serotype or group. An estimated 36 289 (95% prediction interval 17 145-55 434) cases of invasive bacterial disease were averted during the first 2 years of the pandemic among IRIS-participating countries and territories. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 containment measures were associated with a sustained decrease in the incidence of invasive disease caused by S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis during the first 2 years of the pandemic, but cases began to increase in some countries towards the end of 2021 as pandemic restrictions were lifted. These IRIS data provide a better understanding of microbial transmission, will inform vaccine development and implementation, and can contribute to health-care service planning and provision of policies. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Torsten Söderberg Foundation, Stockholm County Council, Swedish Research Council, German Federal Ministry of Health, Robert Koch Institute, Pfizer, Merck, and the Greek National Public Health Organization.

myCOPD App for Managing Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A NICE Medical Technology Guidance for a Digital Health Technology.

myCOPD is a digital tool designed for people to manage their chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). It requires a device with an internet connection and incorporates tools for education, self-management, symptom tracking and pulmonary rehabilitation (PR). myCOPD was selected for medical technologies guidance by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in 2020. The External Assessment Group (EAG) critiqued the company's submission. The evidence comprised four clinical studies (three randomised controlled trials [RCTs] and one observational study) and real-world evidence from 22 documents. The RCTs had small sample sizes, limiting the power to detect statistically significant differences and to match patient characteristics across arms. The company produced two de novo models for two subgroups of people with COPD; people discharged from hospital with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) and people referred for PR. After the EAG updated input parameters and adjusted the model structures, cost savings of £86,297 per clinical commissioning group (CCG) compared with standard care were estimated for the AECOPD population, with myCOPD predicted to be cost saving in 74% of iterations. Cost savings of £22,779 per CCG were estimated for the PR population (with the assumption that the CCG had an existing myCOPD licence), with myCOPD predicted to be cost saving in 86% of the iterations. The Medical Technologies Advisory Committee concluded that although myCOPD has the potential to help manage COPD in adults, further evidence is required to address uncertainties in the current evidence base. NICE published this as Medical Technology Guidance 68 (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). myCOPD for managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. 2022. Available at: https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/mtg68/ ).

People with dry age-related macular degeneration; views on certification of vision impairment in a primary care setting: An explorative qualitative study.

PURPOSE: Evidence supports the clinical decision-making ability of primary care optometrists with additional qualifications in the identification of eligibility criteria for the certification of vision impairment (CVI). Welsh Government policy is driving pathway change to enable these optometrists to perform CVI. This qualitative study explores the views of people with VI due to dry age-related macular degeneration (AMD) on this pathway change. METHODS: Nine people with VI due to dry AMD, attending Macular Society support groups, participated. Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted and analysed concurrently using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Five major themes were identified: (1) living with dry AMD, (2) experience of eye care provision, (3) knowledge of CVI, (4) provision of information and (5) CVI in primary care. Participants consistently highlighted the need for the provision of accessible information regarding the certification pathway, dry AMD and the optometrist's role in the provision of eye health care. Information needs to be available prior to the diagnosis of an eye disease, rather than only from the point of diagnosis or where the vision reaches the level required for certification. CONCLUSION: The findings support the provision of CVI within primary eye care while highlighting areas of importance in pathway development. These include the provision of accessible information prior to, at the point of and following the diagnosis of an eye condition. Information provided needs to extend to the awareness of the role of the optometrist in the provision of eye care, and public health awareness of modifiable risk factors, which will influence the possibility of disease development in later life. The findings provide information that will be useful to those responsible for the provision of CVI within primary care.

Developing a Modeling Framework for Quantifying the Health and Cost Implications of Antibiotic Resistance for Surgical Procedures.

Background. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global public health threat. The wider implications of AMR, such as the impact of antibiotic resistance (ABR) on surgical procedures, are yet to be quantified. The objective of this study was to produce a conceptual modeling framework to provide a basis for estimating the current and potential future consequences of ABR for surgical procedures in England. Design. A framework was developed using literature-based evidence and structured expert elicitation. This was applied to populations undergoing emergency repair of the neck of the femur and elective colorectal resection surgery. Results. The framework captures the implications of increasing ABR by allowing for higher rates of surgical site infection (SSI) as the effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis wanes and worsened outcomes following SSIs to reflect reduced antibiotic treatment effectiveness. The expert elicitation highlights the uncertainty in quantifying the impact of ABR, reflected in the results. A hypothetical SSI rate increase of 14% in a person undergoing emergency repair of the femur could increase costs by 39% (-2% to 108% credible interval [CI]) and decrease quality-adjusted life-years by 11% (0.4% to 62% CI) over 15 y. Conclusions. The modeling framework is a starting point for addressing the implication of ABR on the outcomes and costs of surgeries. Due to clinical uncertainty highlighted in the expert elicitation process, the numerical outputs of the case studies should not be focused on but rather the framework itself, illustration of the evidence gaps, the benefit of expert elicitation in quantifying parameters with limited data, and the potential magnitude of the impact of ABR on surgical procedures. Implications. The framework can be used to support research surrounding the health and cost burden of ABR in England. Highlights: The modeling framework is a starting point for assessing the health and cost impacts of antibiotic resistance on surgeries in England.Formulating a framework and synthesizing evidence to parameterize data gaps provides targets for future research.Once data gaps are addressed, this modeling framework can be used to feed into overall estimates of the health and cost burden of antibiotic resistance and evaluate control policies.

UK veterinary professionals' perceptions and experiences of adverse drug reaction reporting.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous reporting of suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is the cornerstone of pharmacovigilance. Despite this, it is believed that there is significant under-reporting in the veterinary setting. Low reporting rates delay marketing authorisation holders (MAHs) and regulators taking mitigating action in the case of safety concerns. METHOD: We designed a survey to explore the perceptions, attitudes and experiences of UK veterinary professionals towards ADR reporting. The survey was advertised widely through conventional and social media and at several conferences. RESULTS: In total, 260 respondents completed the survey, including 210 veterinary surgeons, 49 veterinary nurses and one suitably qualified person. Respondents generally understood the need to report ADRs. The main barrier to reporting was the suspected ADR being well known, and the most popular potential facilitator identified was the ability to report via the practice management system. Facilitation via education in the form of a pharmacovigilance themed continuing professional development event was particularly popular among veterinary nurses, who reported time as being less of a barrier to reporting than their veterinary surgeon counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that technological interventions to facilitate reporting and empowerment of veterinary nurses to report through a tailored training event should be explored further.

Comparative genomics of Bordetella pertussis isolates from New Zealand, a country with an uncommonly high incidence of whooping cough.

Whooping cough, the respiratory disease caused by Bordetella pertussis, has undergone a wide-spread resurgence over the last several decades. Previously, we developed a pipeline to assemble the repetitive B. pertussis genome into closed sequences using hybrid nanopore and Illumina sequencing. Here, this sequencing pipeline was used to conduct a more high-throughput, longitudinal screen of 66 strains isolated between 1982 and 2018 in New Zealand. New Zealand has a higher incidence of whooping cough than many other countries; usually at least twice as many cases per 100000 people as the USA and UK and often even higher, despite similar rates of vaccine uptake. To the best of our knowledge, these strains are the first New Zealand B. pertussis isolates to be sequenced. The analyses here show that, on the whole, genomic trends in New Zealand B. pertussis isolates, such as changing allelic profile in vaccine-related genes and increasing pertactin deficiency, have paralleled those seen elsewhere in the world. At the same time, phylogenetic comparisons of the New Zealand isolates with global isolates suggest that a number of strains are circulating in New Zealand, which cluster separately from other global strains, but which are closely related to each other. The results of this study add to a growing body of knowledge regarding recent changes to the B. pertussis genome, and are the first genetic investigation into B. pertussis isolates from New Zealand.

Evaluation of the Cost-Utility of the York Faecal Calprotectin Care Pathway.

Background: Lower gastrointestinal symptoms are common in the general population and it can be difficult to discriminate between inflammatory bowel disease (IBS) and irritable bowel syndrome (IBD) due to overlap of symptoms. The York Fecal Calprotectin Care Pathway (YFCCP) was introduced in 2016 as an alternative to the NICE fecal calprotectin pathway (DG11). This analysis uses the prospective data from the first 1005 patients in the YFCCP. Previous analysis demonstrated the YFCCP may be cost-saving when compared with the DG11 pathway. This analysis examined the short-term health-related quality of life (HRQoL) impact for patients in the YFCCP for IBD and IBS.Methods: A decision tree model was used to estimate the proportion of people presenting with lower gastrointestinal symptoms that were correctly or falsely diagnosed with IBS and IBD. Time to diagnosis data was estimated and HRQoL data was estimated from published sources. Costs and QALYs were calculated for the YFCCP and each comparator.Results: The YFCCP was cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold when compared with the current NICE recommended pathways and was cost-saving with a QALY gain (dominant)in four of the five comparators. Conclusions: The YFCCP demonstrated a QALY benefit when compared with all alternative pathways.

Changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis during the COVID-19 pandemic in 26 countries and territories in the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance Initiative: a prospective analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. FINDINGS: 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 837 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By contrast, no significant changes in the incidence of invasive S agalactiae infections were observed. Similar trends were observed across most countries and territories despite differing stringency in COVID-19 control policies. The incidence of reported S pneumoniae infections decreased by 68% at 4 weeks (incidence rate ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·27-0·37]) and 82% at 8 weeks (0·18 [0·14-0·23]) following the week in which significant changes in population movements were recorded. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of COVID-19 containment policies and public information campaigns likely reduced transmission of S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis, leading to a significant reduction in life-threatening invasive diseases in many countries worldwide. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (UK), Robert Koch Institute (Germany), Federal Ministry of Health (Germany), Pfizer, Merck, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (Ireland), SpID-Net project (Ireland), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (European Union), Horizon 2020 (European Commission), Ministry of Health (Poland), National Programme of Antibiotic Protection (Poland), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Poland), Agencia de Salut Pública de Catalunya (Spain), Sant Joan de Deu Foundation (Spain), Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Sweden), Swedish Research Council (Sweden), Region Stockholm (Sweden), Federal Office of Public Health of Switzerland (Switzerland), and French Public Health Agency (France).

Genomic Surveillance of a Globally Circulating Distinct Group W Clonal Complex 11 Meningococcal Variant, New Zealand, 2013-2018.

Genomic surveillance is an essential part of effective disease control, enabling identification of emerging and expanding strains and monitoring of subsequent interventions. Whole-genome sequencing was used to analyze the genomic diversity of all Neisseria meningitidis isolates submitted to the New Zealand Meningococcal Reference Laboratory during 2013-2018. Of the 347 isolates submitted for whole-genome sequencing, we identified 68 sequence types belonging to 18 clonal complexes (CC). The predominant CC was CC41/44; next in predominance was CC11. Comparison of the 45 New Zealand group W CC11 isolates with worldwide representatives of group W CC11 isolates revealed that the original UK strain, the 2013 UK strain, and a distinctive variant (the 2015 strain) were causing invasive group W meningococcal disease in New Zealand. The 2015 strain also demonstrated increased resistance to penicillin and has been circulating in Canada and several countries in Europe, highlighting that close monitoring is needed to prevent future outbreaks around the world.

The cost-effectiveness of TheraSphere in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who are eligible for transarterial embolization.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of TheraSphere against other embolic treatments in a population with early to intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are unresectable at presentation and are eligible for transarterial embolization (TAE), conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) or drug-eluting bead TACE (DEB-TACE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A Markov model was constructed using a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective, a 20-year time horizon, and four-week cycles. The eight health states included 'watch and wait', 'transplantation' (pre-, post and post (No HCC)), 'resection', 'no HCC other', 'pharmacological management' and 'death'. Clinical data were sourced from literature and expert opinion. Resource use and costs were reflective of the NHS, and benefits were quantified using Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), with utility weights sourced from literature. Comparators were TAE, cTACE and DEB-TACE. The primary output was the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) expressed as cost per QALY gained. An ICER of under £20,000/QALY gained for an intervention is cost-effective and represents efficient use of healthcare resources. Extensive deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. RESULTS: TheraSphere patients were predicted to gain 0.7 additional QALYs compared to all other treatments. The base case ICERs for TheraSphere were £17,300, £17,279 and £23,020 per QALY gained compared to TAE, cTACE and DEB-TACE, respectively. In the TheraSphere cohort, 87% more patients were predicted to achieve downstaging compared to all other treatment options. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that treatment with TheraSphere is a potentially cost-effective option for patients with early to intermediate stage HCC.

Economic Evaluation of Senshio® (Ospemifene) for the Treatment of Vulvovaginal Atrophy in Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Local oestrogens, the current treatment for vulvar and vaginal atrophy (VVA), are not suitable for all women. Standard of care (SoC) consists of over-the-counter lubricants and moisturisers. Senshio® (ospemifene) provides a treatment option for postmenopausal women who are not candidates for local vaginal oestrogen therapy who would otherwise have an unmet clinical need. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ospemifene, a selective oestrogen receptor modulator, for the treatment of moderate to severe symptomatic VVA in postmenopausal women who are not candidates for local vaginal oestrogen therapy. METHODS: The Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) recently evaluated the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence of ospemifene plus SoC compared with SoC alone. A cost-effectiveness study, from a National Health Service (NHS) Scotland perspective over a lifetime time horizon, was submitted to the SMC. The cohort-based Markov model used robust clinical evidence from two large pivotal phase III randomised controlled studies and included four health states classified by dyspareunia symptom severity: none, mild, moderate and severe. The movement of women between health states was dependent on the effectiveness of treatment in reducing dyspareunia. Extensive sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess the level of confidence associated with the base-case results. RESULTS: Treatment with ospemifene was associated with an additional cost of £847 per patient and an increase in quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) of 0.06 per patient. Ospemifene had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £14,138 per QALY. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a probability of 89% that ospemifene was cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Ospemifene remained cost-effective under all scenario analyses. The SMC reviewed the clinical and economic evidence and judged that the evidence demonstrated a robust case to support prescribing ospemifene in NHS Scotland. CONCLUSION: Ospemifene is a cost-effective intervention that has recently been accepted by the SMC for the treatment of postmenopausal women with moderate to severe VVA who are not candidates for local oestrogen.

Victorian Lung Cancer Service Redesign Project: impacts of a quality improvement collaborative on timeliness and management in lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer management is characterised by a high disease burden, poor survival and substantial variation in management and outcomes. Service redesign provides opportunities for quality improvement (QI) and this improvement may be leveraged across multiple sites using QI collaboration. AIM: This initiative targeted Quality Improvement (QI) in lung cancer management, engaging a QI collaborative using service redesign methodologies in five Victorian hospitals. QI targets included timeliness from referral and diagnosis to treatment, multi-disciplinary meeting (MDM) presentation and supportive care screening. Redesign strategies targeted process sustainability through enhanced team capability. METHODS: This study engaged a prospective quality improvement cohort design targeting newly diagnosed tissue confirmed lung cancer with 6-month pre-intervention period and 6-month redesign implementation period, between September 2016 and August 2017, evaluated using Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Hospital sites included three regional and two metropolitan hospitals in Victoria. QI redesign targeted time intervals from referral to first specialist appointment (FSA), referral to diagnosis, diagnosis to first treatment (any intent), MDM documented in medical records and Supportive Care Screening Tool documented in medical records. RESULTS: There was a marked reduction in referral to FSA interval across all sites, with median (interquartile range) falling from 6 (0-15) to 4 (1-10) days, and proportion seen by a specialist within 14 days increased from 74.3% to 84.2%. The interval between diagnosis and treatment was not substantively changed in the 6-month implementation period. The proportion of subjects with documented presentation to the MDM increased from 61% to 67%. The proportion for which Supportive Care Screening documentation remained low at 26.3% post-intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Data-driven redesign initiatives enable identification and analysis of clinical practice variation and may be utilised to enhance timeliness of cancer care and improve local data service capabilities.

The cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation for treating patients with gastric antral vascular ectasia refractory to first line endoscopic therapy.

Objective: This economic evaluation aims to provide a preliminary assessment of the cost-effectiveness of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) compared with argon plasma coagulation (APC) when used to treat APC-refractory gastric antral vascular ectasia (GAVE) in symptomatic patients.Methods: A Markov model was constructed to undertake a cost-utility analysis for adults with persistent symptoms secondary to GAVE refractory to first line endoscopic therapy. The economic evaluation was conducted from a UK NHS and personal social services (PSS) perspective, with a 20-year time horizon, comparing RFA with APC. Patients transfer between health states defined by haemoglobin level. The clinical effectiveness data were sourced from expert opinion, resource use and costs were reflective of the UK NHS and benefits were quantified using Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) with utility weights taken from the literature. The primary output was the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per QALY gained.Results: Over a lifetime time horizon, the base case ICER was £4840 per QALY gained with an 82.2% chance that RFA was cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. The model estimated that implementing RFA would result in reductions in the need for intravenous iron, endoscopic intervention and requirement for blood transfusions by 27.1%, 32.3% and 36.5% respectively. Compared to APC, RFA was associated with an estimated 36.7% fewer procedures.Conclusions: RFA treatment is likely to be cost-effective for patients with ongoing symptoms following failure of first line therapy with APC and could lead to substantive reductions in health care resource.

Genomic Surveillance of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus: A Mathematical Early Modeling Study of Cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Genomic surveillance of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) identifies unsuspected transmission events and outbreaks. Used proactively, this could direct early and highly targeted infection control interventions to prevent ongoing spread. Here, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this intervention in a model that compared whole-genome sequencing plus current practice versus current practice alone. METHODS: A UK cost-effectiveness study was conducted using an early model built from the perspective of the National Health Service and personal social services. The effectiveness of sequencing was based on the relative reduction in total MRSA acquisitions in a cohort of hospitalized patients in the year following their index admissions. A sensitivity analysis was used to illustrate and assess the level of confidence associated with the conclusions of our economic evaluation. RESULTS: A cohort of 65 000 patients were run through the model. Assuming that sequencing would result in a 90% reduction in MRSA acquisition, 290 new MRSA cases were avoided. This gave an absolute reduction of 28.8% and avoidance of 2 MRSA-related deaths. Base case results indicated that the use of routine, proactive MRSA sequencing would be associated with estimated cost savings of over £728 290 per annual hospitalized cohort. The impact in total quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was relatively modest, with sequencing leading to an additional 14.28 QALYs gained. Results were most sensitive to changes in the probability of a MRSA-negative patient acquiring MRSA during their hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that proactive genomic surveillance of MRSA is likely to be cost-effective. Further evaluation is required in the context of a prospective study.

A national economic and clinical model for ischemic stroke care development in Saudi Arabia: A call for change.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a significant burden in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Ministry of Health's stroke committee has identified an urgent need to improve care. AIM: The purpose of this study was to undertake a health-economic analysis to quantify the impact of developing stroke care in the country. METHODS: An economic model was developed to assess the costs and clinical outcomes associated with an ischemic stroke care development program compared with current stroke care. Based on Saudi epidemiological data, cohorts of ischemic stroke patients enter the model each year for the first 10 years based on increasing incidence. Four treatment options were modeled including reperfusion and non-reperfusion treatments. The development scenario estimates the impact of gradually increasing uptake of more effective treatments over 10 years. Changes in the stroke care organization are considered along with resources required to increase capacity, allowing more patients to be admitted to stroke hospitals and access effective treatments. RESULTS: The stroke care development program is associated with an increase in functionally independent patients and a decrease in disabling strokes compared with current stroke care. Additionally, the development program is associated with estimated cost savings of $602 million over 15 years ($255 million direct costs, $348 million indirect costs). CONCLUSIONS: The model predicts that the stroke care development program is associated with improved patient outcomes and lower overall costs compared with the current stroke care program.