Phenological shifts and mismatch with marine productivity vary among Pacific salmon species and populations.

Global climate change is shifting the timing of life-cycle events, sometimes resulting in phenological mismatches between predators and prey. Phenological shifts and subsequent mismatches may be consistent across populations, or they could vary unpredictably across populations within the same species. For anadromous Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), juveniles from thousands of locally adapted populations migrate from diverse freshwater habitats to the Pacific Ocean every year. Both the timing of freshwater migration and ocean arrival, relative to nearshore prey (phenological match/mismatch), can control marine survival and population dynamics. Here we examined phenological change of 66 populations across six anadromous Pacific salmon species throughout their range in western North America with the longest time series spanning 1951-2019. We show that different salmon species have different rates of phenological change but that there was substantial within-species variation that was not correlated with changing environmental conditions or geographic patterns. Moreover, outmigration phenologies have not tracked shifts in the timing of marine primary productivity, potentially increasing the frequency of future phenological mismatches. Understanding population responses to mismatches with prey are an important part of characterizing overall population-specific climate vulnerability.

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline.

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed "regime shifts"), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976-1990), a compensatory regime (1991-2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.

Extinction risk and overfishing: reconciling conservation and fisheries perspectives on the status of marine fishes.

Anthropogenic disturbances are ubiquitous in the ocean, but their impacts on marine species are hotly debated. We evaluated marine fish statuses using conservation (Red List threatened or not) and fisheries (above or below reference points) metrics, compared their alignment, and diagnosed why discrepancies arise. Whereas only 13.5% of Red Listed marine fishes (n = 2952) are threatened, 40% and 21% of populations with stock assessments (n = 166) currently are below their more conservative and riskier reference points, respectively. Conservation and fisheries metrics aligned well (70.5% to 80.7%), despite their mathematical disconnect. Red Listings were not biased towards exaggerating threat status, and egregious errors, where populations were categorized at opposite extremes of fisheries and conservation metrics, were rare. Our analyses suggest conservation and fisheries scientists will agree on the statuses of exploited marine fishes in most cases, leaving only the question of appropriate management responses for populations of mutual concern still unresolved.

Importance of calcium in modifying the acute toxicity of sodium sulphate to Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna.

Modification of the acute toxicity of sodium sulphate to Hyalella azteca and Daphnia magna was investigated using exposure water with different levels of water hardness (expressed as CaCO3 equivalents) and calcium-magnesium molar (Ca:Mg) ratios. The influence of Ca:Mg ratios on the toxicity of sodium and potassium chloride to D. magna also was investigated. For both species, the mean lethal concentrations that resulted in mortality of 50% of the sample population (LC50s), expressed as mg SO4(2-)/L, were increased significantly in harder water and in water with higher Ca:Mg ratios. The LC50s for H. azteca increased from 569 to 5259 mg/L with a change in water hardness from 25 to 250 mg/L. Furthermore, modifying the Ca:Mg ratio from 0.7 to 7.0 at a constant hardness of 100 mg/L significantly increased LC50s from 2101 to 2725 mg/L. The LC50s for D. magna were also significantly higher in harder water with LC50s increasing from 1194 to 3203 mg/L with a change in water hardness from 25 to 100 mg/L. In addition, modifying the Ca:Mg ratio from 0.7 to 7.0 significantly increased LC50s from 1194 to 1985 at a constant hardness of 25 mg/L, and from 3203 to 4395 mg/L at a constant hardness of 100 mg/L. No significant change in the toxicity of potassium or sodium chloride to D. magna was observed in waters with higher Ca:Mg ratios.

Sulphate toxicity to the aquatic moss, Fontinalis antipyretica.

The aquatic moss, Fontinalis antipyretica was exposed to elevated sulphate concentrations for 21-days. Gametophores were sectioned to 2 cm lengths and exposed to sulphate concentrations up to 1500 mg/l, in waters of different water hardness. Significant reductions in shoot length, dry weight, and chlorophyll a and b concentrations (per gram dry weight) were observed in soft water (19 mg/l as CaCO3); however, effects were significantly reduced in waters of increasing hardness (up to 105 mg/l as CaCO3). The substantial reduction of sulphate toxicity in waters of increasing hardness suggests water chemistry plays a significant role in affecting sulphate toxicity and should be considered when setting sulphate discharge limits.