Derivation and Validation of ICD-10 Codes for Identifying Incident Stroke.

Importance: Claims data with International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes are routinely used in clinical research. However, the use of ICD-10 codes to define incident stroke has not been validated against expert-adjudicated outcomes in the US population. Objective: To develop and validate the accuracy of an ICD-10 code list to detect incident stroke events using Medicare inpatient fee-for-service claims data. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 2 prospective population-based cohort studies, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, and included participants aged 65 years or older without prior stroke who had linked Medicare claims data. Stroke events in the ARIC and REGARDS studies were identified via active surveillance and adjudicated by expert review. Medicare-linked ARIC data (2016-2018) were used to develop a list of ICD-10 codes for incident stroke detection. The list was validated using Medicare-linked REGARDS data (2016-2019). Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, through September 30, 2023. Exposures: Stroke events detected in Medicare claims vs expert-adjudicated stroke events in the ARIC and REGARDS studies. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were sensitivity and specificity of incident stroke detection using ICD-10 codes. Results: In the ARIC study, there were 110 adjudicated incident stroke events among 5194 participants (mean [SD] age, 80.1 [5.3] years) over a median follow-up of 3.0 (range, 0.003-3.0) years. Most ARIC participants were women (3160 [60.8%]); 993 (19.1%) were Black and 4180 (80.5%) were White. Using the primary diagnosis code on a Medicare billing claim, the ICD-10 code list had a sensitivity of 81.8% (95% CI, 73.3%-88.5%) and a specificity of 99.1% (95% CI, 98.8%-99.3%) to detect incident stroke. Using any diagnosis code on a Medicare billing claim, the sensitivity was 94.5% (95% CI, 88.5%-98.0%) and the specificity was 98.4% (95% CI, 98.0%-98.8%). In the REGARDS study, there were 140 adjudicated incident strokes among 6359 participants (mean [SD] age, 75.8 [7.0] years) over a median follow-up of 4.0 (range, 0-4.0) years. More than half of the REGARDS participants were women (3351 [52.7%]); 1774 (27.9%) were Black and 4585 (72.1%) were White. For the primary diagnosis code, the ICD-10 code list had a sensitivity of 70.7% (95% CI, 63.2%-78.3%) and a specificity of 99.1% (95% CI, 98.9%-99.4%). For any diagnosis code, the ICD-10 code list had a sensitivity of 77.9% (95% CI, 71.0%-84.7%) and a specificity of 98.9% (95% CI, 98.6%-99.2%). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that ICD-10 codes could be used to identify incident stroke events in Medicare claims with moderate sensitivity and high specificity.

Modeling the Impact of Biomarker-Guided Versus ASCVD Risk-Guided Drug Treatment in US Adults With Stage 1 Hypertension: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999 to 2004.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend antihypertensive medication for adults with both stage 1 hypertension (systolic blood pressure, 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure, 80-89 mm Hg) and 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥10%. Cardiac biomarkers could facilitate a more targeted approach to the treatment of stage 1 hypertension. METHODS: We studied 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants aged ≥20 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension without heart failure or ASCVD. We measured hs-cTnI (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I), hs-cTnT (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T) and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) in stored serum. We used the Pooled Cohort Equations to predict 10-year ASCVD risk. All participants had linked mortality follow-up through December 31, 2019. RESULTS: Overall, 17.5% of US adults (32.2 million) had untreated stage 1 hypertension. Among these 32.2 million persons, 15.7% had ASCVD risk ≥10%, 5.6% had elevated hs-cTnI, 4.7% had elevated hs-cTnT, and 9.5% had elevated NT-proBNP. Among adults aged 65 to 79 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension, 80.5% had ASCVD risk ≥10%, 13.0% had elevated hs-cTnI, 15.2% had elevated hs-cTnT, and 29.4% had elevated NT-proBNP. Less than half of the adults aged ≥80 years with untreated stage 1 hypertension had elevated biomarkers. The cardiovascular disease mortality rates among all adults with untreated stage 1 hypertension and with either ASCVD risk ≥10%, elevated hs-cTnI, elevated hs-cTnT, or elevated NT-proBNP were 7.51, 7.74, 8.75, and 5.87 per 1000 person-years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac biomarkers may be more selective for informing risk-based treatment decisions in stage 1 hypertension, particularly among adults aged ≥65 years.

Self-Rated Health in Middle Age and Risk of Hospitalizations and Death: Recurrent Event Analysis of the ARIC Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-rated health is a simple measure that may identify individuals who are at a higher risk for hospitalization or death. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between a single measure of self-rated health and future risk of recurrent hospitalizations or death. PARTICIPANTS: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, a community-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged men and women with follow-up beginning from 1987 to 1989. MAIN MEASURES: We quantified the associations between initial self-rated health with risk of recurrent hospitalizations and of death using a recurrent events survival model that allowed for dependency between the rates of hospitalization and hazards of death, adjusted for demographic and clinical factors. KEY RESULTS: Of the 14,937 ARIC cohort individuals with available self-rated health and covariate information, 34% of individuals reported "excellent" health, 47% "good," 16% "fair," and 3% "poor" at study baseline. After a median follow-up of 27.7 years, 1955 (39%), 3569 (51%), 1626 (67%), and 402 (83%) individuals with "excellent," "good," "fair," and "poor" health, respectively, had died. After adjusting for demographic factors and medical history, a less favorable self-rated health status was associated with increased rates of hospitalization and death. As compared to those reporting "excellent" health, adults with "good," "fair," and "poor" health had 1.22 (1.07 to 1.40), 2.01 (1.63 to 2.47), and 3.13 (2.39 to 4.09) times the rate of hospitalizations, respectively. The hazards of death also increased with worsening categories of self-rated health, with "good," "fair," and "poor" health individuals experiencing 1.30 (1.12 to 1.51), 2.15 (1.71 to 2.69), and 3.40 (2.54 to 4.56) times the hazard of death compared to "excellent," respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Even after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors, having a less favorable response on a single measure of self-rated health taken in middle age is a potent marker of future hospitalizations and death.

Prognostic value of insulin resistance and hyperglycemia biomarkers for long-term risks of cardiometabolic outcomes.

We found that individuals in the top tertile of HOMA-IR and with HbA1c-defined prediabetes have elevated risk of cardiometabolic outcomes.

Prevalence of Elevated NT-proBNP and its Prognostic Value by Blood Pressure Treatment and Control.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic utility of NT-proBNP in the setting of hypertension has not been well-characterized in the general US adult population. METHODS: We measured NT-proBNP in stored blood samples collected from participants 1 year or older who participated in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In adults 20 years or older without a history of cardiovascular disease, we assessed the prevalence of elevated NT-pro-BNP by blood pressure (BP) treatment and control categories. We examined the extent to which NT-proBNP identifies participants at higher risk for mortality across BP treatment and control categories. RESULTS: Among US adults without CVD, the prevalence of elevated NT-proBNP (≥125 pg/ml) was 27.2% among those with untreated hypertension, 24.9% among those with treated controlled hypertension, and 43.3% among those with treated uncontrolled hypertension. Over a median follow-up of 17.3 years and after adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors, US adults with treated controlled hypertension and elevated NT-proBNP had increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.79, 2.95) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 3.83, 95% CI 2.34, 6.29), compared to adults without hypertension and with low levels of NT-proBNP (<125 pg/ml). Across all levels of SBP and irrespective of antihypertensive medication use, elevated NT-proBNP was associated with an increased risk of mortality, compared to low levels of NT-proBNP. CONCLUSIONS: Among a general population of adults free of CVD, NT-proBNP can provide additional prognostic information within and across categories of BP. Measurement of NT-proBNP may have potential for clinical use to optimize hypertension treatment.

Standing Blood Pressure and Risk of Falls, Syncope, Coronary Heart Disease, and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: ACC/AHA guidelines caution against the use of antihypertensive therapy in the setting of low standing systolic BP (SBP) < 110 mm Hg due to unclear benefits. METHODS: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study measured supine and standing SBP in adults aged 45-64 years between 1987 and 1989. We used Cox regression to evaluate the associations of low standing SBP (<110 mm Hg) with risk of falls, syncope, coronary heart disease (CHD), and mortality through December 31, 2019. Falls and syncope were ascertained by hospitalization and outpatient claims; CHD events were adjudicated. Associations were examined overall and in strata of hypertension stage, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, age, and sex. RESULTS: Among 12,467 adults followed a median of 24 years (mean age at enrollment 54.1 ±â€…5.8 years, 55% women, 26% Black adults), 3,000 (24%) had a standing SBP < 110 mm Hg. A standing SBP < 110 mm Hg compared to standing SBP ≥ 110 mm Hg was not significantly associated with falls or syncope, and was associated with a lower risk of CHD events and mortality with HRs of 1.02 (95% CI 0.94, 1.11), 1.02 (0.93, 1.11), 0.88 (0.80, 0.97), and 0.91 (0.86, 0.97), respectively. There were no clinically meaningful differences when stratified by hypertension stage, 10-year ASCVD risk, age, and sex. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based population, low standing SBP was common and not significantly associated with falls or syncope, but was associated with a lower risk of CHD and mortality. These findings do not support screening for low standing BP as a risk factor for adverse events.

Associations of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and mortality in US adults.

BACKGROUND: NT-proBNP is an important predictor of mortality but is inversely related to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Whether the prognostic value of NT-proBNP is similar at different levels of kidney function is unknown. AIMS: We evaluated the association of NT-proBNP with eGFR and its implications for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk in the general population. METHODS: We included adults without prior cardiovascular disease from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999 to 2004. We used linear regression to characterize the cross-sectional associations of NT-proBNP with eGFR. We used Cox regression to assess the prospective associations of NT-proBNP with mortality across categories of eGFR. RESULTS: Among 11,456 participants (mean age 43 years, 48% female, 71% White, 11% Black), there was an inverse association between NT-proBNP and eGFR, which was stronger in those with more impaired kidney function. Per 15-unit decrease in eGFR, NT-proBNP was 4.3-fold higher for eGFR<30; 1.7-fold higher for eGFR 30 to 60, 1.4-fold higher for eGFR 61 to 90, 1.1-fold higher for eGFR 91 to 120 mL/min/1.73 m2. Over a median 17.6 years of follow-up, 2,275 deaths (622 cardiovascular) occurred. Higher NT-proBNP was associated with higher all-cause (HR per doubling of NT-proBNP: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.16-1.25) and cardiovascular mortality (HR: 1.34, 95% CI 1.25-1.44). Associations were similar across eGFR categories (P-interaction >.10). Adults with NT-proBNP≥450 pg/mL and eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73m2 had 3.4-fold higher all-cause mortality and 5.5-fold higher cardiovascular mortality risk, compared to those with NT-proBNP<125 pg/mL and eGFR>90 mL/min/1.73m2. CONCLUSION: Despite its strong inverse association with eGFR, NT-proBNP has robust associations with mortality across the full range of kidney function in the general US adult population.

High-sensitivity troponins and mortality in the general population.

AIMS: Cardiac troponin T and I can be measured using a number of high-sensitivity (hs) assays. This study aimed to characterize correlations between four such assays and test their comparative associations with mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among adults without cardiovascular disease in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, hs-troponin T was measured using one assay (Roche) and hs-troponin I using three assays (Abbott, Siemens, and Ortho). Cox regression was used to estimate associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Pearson's correlation coefficients comparing concentrations from each assay ranged from 0.53 to 0.77. There were 2188 deaths (488 cardiovascular) among 9810 participants. Each hs-troponin assay [log-transformed, per 1 standard deviation (SD)] was independently associated with all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) 1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.28] for Abbott hs-troponin I; HR 1.10 (95% CI 1.02-1.18) for Siemens hs-troponin I; HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.14-1.33) for Ortho hs-troponin I; and HR 1.31 (95% CI 1.21-1.42) for Roche hs-troponin T. Each hs-troponin assay was also independently associated with cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.44 to 1.65 per 1 SD). Associations of hs-troponin T and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality remained significant after adjusting for hs-troponin I. Furthermore, associations of hs-troponin I remained significant after mutually adjusting for hs-troponin I from the other individual assays: e.g. cardiovascular mortality HR 1.46 (95% CI 1.19-1.79) for Abbott after adjustment for the Siemens assay and HR 1.29 (95% CI 1.09-1.53) for Abbott after adjustment for the Ortho assay. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates only modest correlations between hs-troponin T and three hs-troponin I assays and that hs-troponin I assays can provide distinct risk information for mortality in the general population.

NT-proBNP and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in US Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Background NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) is strongly associated with mortality in patients with heart failure. Prior studies, primarily in middle-aged and older populations, have suggested that NT-proBNP has prognostic value in ambulatory adults. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of adults, aged ≥20 years, in the nationally representative 1999 to 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, to characterize the association of NT-proBNP with mortality in the general US adult population overall and by age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index. We used Cox regression to characterize associations of NT-proBNP with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality through 2019, adjusting for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors. We included 10 645 individuals (mean age, 45.7 years; 50.8% women; 72.8% White adults; 8.5% with a self-reported history of CVD). There were 3155 deaths (1009 CVD-related) over a median 17.3 years of follow-up. Among individuals without prior CVD, elevated NT-proBNP (≥75th percentile [81.5 pg/mL] versus <25th percentile [20.5 pg/mL]) was associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.67 [95% CI, 1.39-2.00]) and CVD mortality (HR, 2.87 [95% CI, 1.61-5.11]). Associations of NT-proBNP with all-cause and CVD mortality were generally similar across subgroups defined by age, sex, race and ethnicity, or body mass index (all P interaction >0.05). Conclusions In a representative sample of the US adult population, NT-proBNP was an important independent risk factor for all-cause and CVD mortality. NT-proBNP may be useful for monitoring risk in the general adult population.

Prevalence of Elevated NT-proBNP and its Prognostic Value by Blood Pressure Treatment and Control- National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2004.

Background: The prognostic utility of NT-proBNP in the setting of hypertension has not been well-characterized in the general US adult population. Methods: We measured NT-proBNP among adults aged 20 years who participated in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, we assessed the prevalence of elevated NT-pro-BNP by blood pressure (BP) treatment and control categories. We examined the extent to which NT-proBNP identifies participants at higher risk for mortality across BP treatment and control categories. Results: The number of US adults without CVD with elevated NT-proBNP (≥125 pg/ml) was 6.2 million among those with untreated hypertension, 4.6 million among those with treated controlled hypertension, and 5.4 million among those with treated uncontrolled hypertension. After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and race/ethnicity, participants with treated controlled hypertension and elevated NT-proBNP had increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.29, 95% CI 1.79, 2.95) and increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR 3.83, 95% CI: 2.34, 6.29), compared to those without hypertension and with low levels of NT-proBNP (<125 pg/ml). Among those on antihypertensive medication, those with SBP 130-139 mm Hg and elevated NT-proBNP had increased risk of all-cause mortality, compared to those with SBP<120 mm Hg and low levels of NT-proBNP. Conclusions: Among a general population of adults free of cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP can provide additional prognostic information within and across categories of BP. Measurement of NT-proBNP may have potential for clinical use to optimize hypertension treatment.

The association of peripheral neuropathy detected by monofilament testing with risk of falls and fractures in older adults.

BACKGROUND: In persons with diabetes, annual screening for peripheral neuropathy (PN) using monofilament testing is the standard of care. However, PN detected by monofilament testing is common in older adults, even in the absence of diabetes. We aimed to assess the association of PN with risk of falls and fractures in older adults. METHODS: We included participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study who underwent monofilament testing at visit 6 (2016-2017). Incident falls and fractures were identified based on ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes from active surveillance of all hospitalizations and linkage to Medicare claims. We used Cox models to assess the association of PN with falls and fractures (combined and as separate outcomes) after adjusting for demographics and risk factors for falls. RESULTS: There were 3617 ARIC participants (mean age 79.4 [SD 4.7] years, 40.8% male, and 21.4% Black adults), of whom 1242 (34.3%) had PN based on monofilament testing. During a median follow-up of 2.5 years, 371 participants had a documented fall, and 475 participants had a documented fracture. The incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) for falls or fractures for participants with PN versus those without PN was 111.1 versus 74.3 (p < 0.001). The age-, sex-, and race-adjusted 3-year cumulative incidence of incident fall or fracture was significantly higher for participants with PN versus those without PN (26.5% vs. 18.4%, p < 0.001). After adjusting for demographics, PN remained independently associated with falls and fractures (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.26, 1.74). Results were similar for models including traditional risk factors for falls, when falls and fractures were analyzed as separate outcomes, and after adjustment for competing risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: PN, as measured by monofilament testing, is common in older adults and associated with risk of falls and fracture. Screening with monofilament testing may be warranted to identify older adults at high risk for falls.

Association Between Subclinical Thyroid Dysfunction and Fracture Risk.

Importance: Clinical hyperthyroidism accelerates bone resorption without compensatory bone formation, reducing bone density and increasing the risk of fracture. The association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and fracture risk is less clear. Objective: To investigate the association of endogenous subclinical thyroid dysfunction and fracture risk, independent of clinical confounders. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 10 946 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, an ongoing prospective cohort study of community-dwelling individuals conducted from 1987-1989 through December 31, 2019, in Washington County, Maryland; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Jackson, Mississippi; and the suburbs of Minneapolis, Minnesota. Participants were not taking thyroid medications and had no history of fractures. Exposures: Thyrotropin and free thyroxine levels were measured at visit 2 (1990-1992). Subclinical hyperthyroidism was defined as a thyrotropin level lower than 0.56 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as a thyrotropin level higher than 5.1 mIU/L, and euthyroidism as a thyrotropin level of 0.56 to 5.1 mIU/L, with normal free thyroxine levels from 0.85 to 1.4 ng/dL. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incident fracture was ascertained using hospitalization discharge codes through 2019 and linkage to inpatient and outpatient Medicare claims through 2018. Results: Of 10 946 participants (54.3% women; mean [SD] age, 57 [5.7] years), 93.0% had euthyroidism, 2.6% had subclinical hyperthyroidism, and 4.4% had subclinical hypothyroidism. During a median follow-up of 21 years (IQR, 13.0-27.3 years), there were 3556 incident fractures (167.1 per 10 000 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratios of fracture were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.09-1.65) for those with subclinical hyperthyroidism and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.77-1.05) for those with subclinical hypothyroidism compared with individuals with euthyroidism. Among those with normal free thyroxine levels, thyrotropin levels in the lower-than-normal range were significantly associated with higher fracture-related hospitalization risk; fracture risk was greater among individuals with thyrotropin concentrations below 0.56 mIU/L. Conclusions and Relevance: This community-based cohort study suggests that subclinical hyperthyroidism was an independent risk factor associated with fracture. The increased risk for fracture among individuals with a thyrotropin level lower than 0.56 mIU/L highlights a potential role for more aggressive screening and monitoring of patients with subclinical hyperthyroidism to prevent bone mineral disease.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Cancer Survivors: The Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND: More than 80% of adult patients diagnosed with cancer survive long term. Long-term complications of cancer and its therapies may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but prospective studies using adjudicated cancer and CVD events are lacking. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess the risk of CVD in cancer survivors in a prospective community-based study. METHODS: We included 12,414 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants. Cancer diagnoses were ascertained via linkage with state registries supplemented with medical records. Incident CVD outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, and a composite of these. We used multivariable Poisson and Cox regressions to estimate the association of cancer with incident CVD. RESULTS: Mean age was 54 years, 55% were female, and 25% were Black. A total of 3,250 participants (25%) had incident cancer over a median 13.6 years of follow-up. Age-adjusted incidence rates of CVD (per 1,000 person-years) were 23.1 (95% CI: 24.7-29.1) for cancer survivors and 12.0 (95% CI: 11.5-12.4) for subjects without cancer. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, cancer survivors had significantly higher risks of CVD (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.26-1.50), HF (HR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.38-1.68), and stroke (HR: 1.22; 95% CI: 1.03-1.44), but not CHD (HR: 1.11; 95% CI: 0.97-1.28). Breast, lung, colorectal, and hematologic/lymphatic cancers, but not prostate cancer, were significantly associated with CVD risk. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with persons without cancer, adult cancer survivors have significantly higher risk of CVD, especially HF, independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. There is an unmet need to define strategies for CVD prevention in this high-risk population.

Association Between Acute Kidney Injury and Dementia in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) causes biochemical changes in the brain in animal models and is associated with adverse neurological complications in hospitalized patients. This study tested the association between AKI and incident dementia in a community-based cohort. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Adult participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study who experienced hospitalized AKI compared with participants hospitalized for other reasons (primary analysis, mean follow-up period 4.3 years) or participants without hospitalized AKI (secondary analysis). PREDICTORS: Incident AKI, defined by ICD codes from hospital records. OUTCOME: Incident dementia, diagnosed based on a combination of neurocognitive testing, informant interviews, ICD codes, and death certificates. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: In the primary analysis, we estimated the propensity for hospitalized AKI and matched these participants with those hospitalized for another reason to examine the association of AKI with subsequent onset of dementia (N = 1,708). In the secondary analysis, we estimated the association between time-varying hospitalized AKI and subsequent onset of dementia using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for age, sex, race/center, education, smoking status, body mass index, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, baseline urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, systolic blood pressure, coronary heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 allele, and C-reactive protein. RESULTS: The mean age in the propensity-matched cohort was 76.1 ± 6.5 (SD) years, and 53.2% of the participants were women. People who were hospitalized with AKI had a higher risk of dementia (HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.02-1.52]; P = 0.03) compared with those without a hospitalization for AKI. The associations were slightly stronger in the time-varying analysis (HR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.48-1.92]; P < 0.001). Other risk factors for dementia included older age, male sex, higher albuminuria, diabetes, current smoker status, and presence of the APOE risk alleles. LIMITATIONS: Observational study, with AKI identified through diagnosis codes. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who experienced a hospitalization for AKI were at increased risk of dementia.

Diabetes, GDF-15 and incident heart failure: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Elevated circulating growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), a marker of cellular stress, is associated with both heart failure (HF) and diabetes. However, it is unclear to what extent GDF-15 is associated with HF among individuals with and without diabetes. METHODS: We evaluated 10,570 participants free of HF at Visit 3 (1993-1995) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. We used Cox regression to evaluate the joint associations of GDF-15 and diabetes with incident HF. Models were adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Among a total of 10,570 individuals (mean age of 60.0 years, 54% women, 27% black adults), elevated GDF-15 (≥75th percentile) was more common in people with diabetes compared with those without diabetes (32.8% vs 23.6%, p<0.0001). During 23 years of follow-up, there were 2429 incident HF events. GDF-15 (in quartiles) was independently associated with HF among those with and without diabetes, with a stronger association among individuals with diabetes (p-for-diabetes-GDF-15 interaction = 0.034): HR for highest vs lowest GDF-15 quartile (reference): 1.64 (95% CI 1.41, 1.91) among those without diabetes and 1.72 (95% CI 1.32, 2.23) among those with diabetes. Individuals with diabetes and elevated GDF-15 had the highest risk of incident HF (HR 2.46; 95% CI 1.99, 3.03). After accounting for HF risk factors, GDF-15 provided additional prognostic information among participants with diabetes (ΔC statistic for model with vs model without GDF-15: +0.008, p = 0.001) and among those without diabetes (+0.006, p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In a community-based sample of US adults, GDF-15 provided complementary prognostic information on the HF risk, especially among individuals with diabetes.

Glycated Albumin in Pristine and Non-Pristine Stored Samples in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004.

BACKGROUND: Glycated albumin is cleared by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical use in diabetes care. To understand its performance in the general US population, we conducted measurements in >19 000 samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Of these samples, 5.7% had previously undergone at least 2 freeze-thaw cycles and were considered "non-pristine." METHODS: We measured glycated albumin and albumin using the Lucica GA-L (Asahi Kasei) assay in stored serum samples from NHANES 1999-2004. Serum albumin (Roche/Beckman) was previously measured. We examined the correlations of percent glycated albumin with hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c)and fasting glucose in the pristine and non-pristine samples. We also measured cystatin C (Siemens) and compared these to cystatin C (Dade Behring) previously obtained in a subsample. RESULTS: Glycated albumin (%) was significantly lower in pristine vs non-pristine samples (13.8% vs 23.4%, P < 0.0001). The results from the Asahi Kasei albumin assay (g/dL) were highly correlated with albumin originally measured in NHANES (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.76) but values were systematically higher (+0.25 g/dL, P < 0.0001). Cystatin C (Siemens) was similar to previous cystatin C measurements (r = 0.98) and did not differ by pristine status (P = 0.119). Glycated albumin (%) was highly correlated with HbA1c and fasting glucose in pristine samples (r = 0.78 and r = 0.71, respectively) but not in non-pristine samples (r = 0.11 and r = 0.12, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The performance of the glycated albumin assay in the pristine samples was excellent. Performance in non-pristine samples was highly problematic. Analyses of glycated albumin in NHANES 1999-2004 should be limited to pristine samples only. These results have major implications for the use of these public data.

Glycated Albumin and Risk of Mortality in the US Adult Population.

BACKGROUND: Glycated albumin is of growing interest as an alternative biomarker of glycemia. However, the association of glycated albumin with long-term outcomes in the general population is uncharacterized. We evaluated the associations of glycated albumin and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) with mortality in US adults. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 12 915 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. We used Cox regression to characterize associations of glycated albumin and HbA1c with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality through 2014. We categorized glycated albumin based on percentiles corresponding to clinical cut-points for HbA1c. No diagnosed diabetes: <5.0% (<12th percentile), 5.0% to 5.6% (12th-82nd percentile, reference), 5.7% to 6.4% (83rd-97th percentile), and ≥6.5% (≥98th percentile). Diagnosed diabetes: <7.0% (<50th percentile), 7.0% to 8.9% (50th-83rd percentile), and ≥9.0% (≥84th percentile). RESULTS: Among US adults (mean age 46 years), the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was 6.8%. Glycated albumin and HbA1c were highly correlated (r = 0.76). Over the median 16.8 years follow-up, there were 2818 deaths (652 cardiovascular). Adults with diagnosed diabetes and glycated albumin ≥84th percentile had the highest risk for all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 3.96, 95% CI 3.06-5.13] and cardiovascular mortality (HR 6.80, 95% CI 4.20-11.03). HbA1c had associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality that were similar to those for glycated albumin. CONCLUSIONS: Among US adults, increased values of glycated albumin and HbA1c were associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, particularly in persons with diagnosed diabetes. Glycated albumin may be a useful alternative test of glycemia.