Modelling the potential clinical and economic impact of universal immunisation with nirsevimab versus standard of practice for protecting all neonates and infants in their first respiratory syncytial virus season in Spain.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is associated with substantial morbidity among infants. This study modelled the potential public health and economic impact of nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, as an immunoprophylactic strategy for all infants in Spain in their first RSV season. METHODS: A static decision-analytic model of the Spanish birth cohort during its first RSV season was developed to estimate the impact of nirsevimab on RSV-related health events and costs versus the standard of practice (SoP). Spain-specific costs and epidemiological data were used as model inputs. Modelled outcomes included RSV-related outpatient visits, emerging room (ER) visits, hospitalisations - including pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and inpatient mortality. RESULTS: Under the current SoP, RSV caused 151,741 primary care visits, 38,798 ER visits, 12,889 hospitalisations, 1,412 PICU admissions, and 16 deaths over a single season, representing a cost of €71.8 million from a healthcare payer perspective. Universal immunisation of all infants with nirsevimab was expected to prevent 97,157 primary care visits (64.0% reduction), 24,789 ER visits (63.9%), 8,185 hospitalisations (63.5%), 869 PICU admissions (61.5%), and 9 inpatient deaths (52.6%), saving €47.8 million (62.4%) in healthcare costs. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that immunisation with nirsevimab of all infants experiencing their first RSV season in Spain is likely to prevent thousands of RSV-related health events and save considerable costs versus the current SoP.

Estimated global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines in the pre-omicron era using real-world empirical data.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available describing the global impact of COVID-19 vaccines. This study estimated the global public health and economic impact of COVID-19 vaccines before the emergence of the Omicron variant. METHODS: A static model covering 215 countries/territories compared the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination to no vaccination during 13 December 2020-30 September 2021. After adjusting for underreporting of cases and deaths, base case analyses estimated total cases and deaths averted, and direct outpatient and productivity costs saved through averted health outcomes. Sensitivity analyses applied alternative model assumptions. RESULTS: COVID-19 vaccines prevented an estimated median (IQR) of 151.7 (133.7-226.1) million cases and 620.5 (411.1-698.1) thousand deaths globally through September 2021. In sensitivity analysis applying an alternative underreporting assumption, median deaths averted were 2.1 million. Estimated direct outpatient cost savings were $21.2 ($18.9-30.9) billion and indirect savings of avoided productivity loss were $135.1 ($121.1-206.4) billion, yielding a total cost savings of $155 billion globally through averted infections. CONCLUSIONS: Using a conservative modeling approach that considered direct effects only, we estimated that COVID-19 vaccines have averted millions of infections and deaths, generating billions of cost savings worldwide, which underscore the continued importance of vaccination in public health response to COVID-19.

Public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (BNT162b2) in the first year of rollout in the United States.

BACKGROUND: As the body of evidence on COVID-19 and post-vaccination outcomes continues to expand, this analysis sought to evaluate the public health impact of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine, BNT162b2, during the first year of its rollout in the US. METHODS: A combined Markov decision tree model compared clinical and economic outcomes of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) versus no vaccination in individuals aged ≥12 years. Age-stratified epidemiological, clinical, economic, and humanistic parameters were derived from existing data and published literature. Scenario analysis explored the impact of using lower and upper bounds of parameters on the results. The health benefits were estimated as the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths averted, and Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) saved. The economic benefits were estimated as the amount of healthcare and societal cost savings associated with the vaccine-preventable health outcomes. RESULTS: It was estimated that, in 2021, the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to averting almost 9 million symptomatic cases, close to 700,000 hospitalizations, and over 110,000 deaths, resulting in an estimated $30.4 billion direct healthcare cost savings, $43.7 billion indirect cost savings related to productivity loss, as well as discounted gains of 1.1 million QALYs. Scenario analyses showed that these results were robust; the use of alternative plausible ranges of parameters did not change the interpretation of the findings. CONCLUSIONS: The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2) contributed to generate substantial public health impact and vaccine-preventable cost savings in the first year of its rollout in the US. The vaccine was estimated to prevent millions of COVID-19 symptomatic cases and thousands of hospitalizations and deaths, and these averted outcomes translated into cost-savings in the billions of US dollars and thousands of QALYs saved. As only direct impacts of vaccination were considered, these estimates may be conservative.