A validated Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN) at the emergency department.

The objective of this study is to develop and validate a screening instrument for the recognition of child maltreatment in the emergency department (ED). Existing data on screening questions and outcomes (diagnosis of child maltreatment) from three large observational screening studies at eight different EDs in the Netherlands were harmonized. A multivariate logistic regression was performed to develop the Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN). The SCAN was validated by performing a cross-validation and calculating the discriminative ability. A total of 24,963 patients were included. Out of the potential screening questions the following questions were included in the final instrument: is the injury compatible with the history, and does it correspond to the child's developmental level? (aOR 10.40, 95% CI 5.69-19.02), was there an unnecessary delay in seeking medical help? (aOR 3.45, 95% CI 1.73-6.88) and is the behaviour/interaction of the child and parents (carers) appropriate? (aOR 14.67, 95% CI 7.93-27.13). The SCAN had a pooled AUC of 0.75 (95% CI 0.63-0.87) in the cross-validation. The question "Are there other signals that make you doubt the safety of the child and/or family?" (available in only one of the original datasets, OR 182.9; 95% CI 102.3-327.4) was by consensus added to the final SCAN. CONCLUSION: This validated and brief Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN) is designed to improve early recognition of child maltreatment in the ED. A positive screening result of the SCAN warrants a thorough work-up for child maltreatment, including a top-toe examination, if necessary additional diagnostics and adequate safety measures. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Screening instruments increase the detection of possible cases of child maltreatment in the emergency department and support health care professionals to identify these cases. • The application of different screening instruments led to the need for one brief validated instrument. WHAT IS NEW: • This study presents a validated and brief Screening instrument for Child Abuse and Neglect (SCAN), consisting of four questions. • The SCAN supports professionals in detecting signals of child maltreatment, and a positive screening result should lead to a thorough work-up, including a top-toe examination, complete history, additional diagnostic tests and consultation of a child abuse expert.

Socio-economic inequality of utilization of cancer testing in Europe: A cross-sectional study.

There are currently screening programmes for breast, cervical and colorectal cancer in many European countries. However, the uptake of cancer screening in general may vary within and between countries. The aim of this study is to assess the inequalities in testing utilization by socio-economic status and whether the amount of inequality varies across European regions. We conducted an analysis based on cross-sectional data from the second wave of the European Health Interview Survey from 2013 to 2015. We analysed the use of breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer testing by socio-economic position (household income, educational level and employment status), socio-demographic factors, self-perceived health and smoking behaviour, by using multinomial logistic models, and inequality measurement based on the Slope index of inequality (SII) and Relative index of inequality (RII). The results show that the utilization of mammography (Odds Ratio (OR) = 0.55, 95% confidence interval (95%CI):0.50-0.61), cervical smear tests (OR = 0.60, 95%CI:0.56-0.65) and colorectal testing (OR = 0.82, 95%CI:0.78-0.86) was overall less likely among individuals within a low household income compared to a high household income. Also, individuals with a non-EU country of birth, low educational level and being unemployed (or retired) were overall less likely to be tested. The income-based inequality in breast (SII = 0.191;RII = 1.260) and colorectal testing utilization (SII = 0.161;RII = 1.487) was the greatest in Southern Europe. For cervical smears, this inequality was greatest in Eastern Europe (SII = 0.122;RII = 1.195). We concluded that there is considerable inequality in the use of cancer tests in Europe, with inequalities associated with household income, educational level, employment status, and country of birth.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV-based cervical screening based on first year results in the Netherlands: a modelling study.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to compare the cost-effectiveness of the old cytology programme with the new high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening programme, using performance indicators from the new Dutch hrHPV screening programme. DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. SETTING: The Netherlands. POPULATION: Dutch 30-year-old unvaccinated females followed up lifelong. METHODS: We updated the microsimulation screening analysis (MISCAN) model using the most recent epidemiological and screening data from the Netherlands. We simulated both screening programmes, using the screening behaviour and costs observed in each programme. Sensitivity analyses were performed on screening behaviour, utility losses and discount rates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates, number of screening tests and repeat tests, colposcopy referrals by lesion grade, costs from a societal perspective, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The new Dutch cervical cancer screening programme decreased the cervical cancer mortality by 4% and the incidence by 1% compared with the old programme. Colposcopy referrals of women without cervical intra-epithelial neoplasia grade 2 or worse, increased by 172%, but 13% more QALYs were still achieved. Total costs were reduced by 21%, mainly due to fewer screening tests. Per QALY gained, the hrHPV programme cost 46% less (€12,225) than the cytology programme (€22,678), and hrHPV-based screening remained more cost-effective in all sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The hrHPV-based screening programme was found to be more effective and cost-effective than the cytology programme. Alternatives for the current triage strategy should be considered to lower the number of unnecessary referrals. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: First results after implementation confirm that HPV screening is more cost-effective than cytology screening.

Contamination in control group led to no effect of PSA-based screening on prostate cancer mortality at 9 years follow-up: Results of the French section of European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC).

INTRODUCTION: European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) mortality results were reported for 7 European countries (excluding France) and showed a significant reduction in Prostate cancer (PCa) mortality. As those results have not been part of the global ERSPC results, it is of interest to report PCa mortality at a median follow-up of 9 years for French section of ERSPC. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two administrative departments were involved in the study. Only men after randomization in the screening group were invited by mail to be screened by PSA testing with two rounds at 4-6 year intervals. Biopsy was recommended if PSA>=3.0 ng/mL. No information other that the French Association of Urology recommandations on the use of PSA was offered to the control group (own decision of physicians and patients). Follow up was based on cancer registry database. Contamination defined as the receipt of PSA testing in control arm was measured. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the Rate Ratio (RR) of PCa mortality and incidence in the screening vs. control arm. RESULTS: Starting from 2003, 80,696 men aged 55-69 years were included. The percentage of men in the screening arm with at least one PSA test (compliance) was 31%. Compared to the control arm, PCa incidence increased by 10% in the screening arm (RR=1.10; 95% CI=[1.04-1.16], P=0.001), but PCa mortality did not differ (0.222 and 0.215 deaths/1000 person-years; RR=1.03[0.75-1.42], P=0.9). DISCUSSION: Limitations include low participation rate. PSA testing in the control arm was observed in 32% of men (contamination). CONCLUSIONS: Contamination in control group led to no effect of PSA-based screening on prostate cancer mortality at 9 years follow-up. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3.

Reasons for (non)participation in supplemental population-based MRI breast screening for women with extremely dense breasts.

AIM: To determine the willingness of women with extremely dense breasts to undergo breast cancer screening with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a research setting, and to examine reasons for women to participate or not. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2011 and 2015, 8,061 women (50-75 years) were invited for supplemental MRI as part of the Dense Tissue and Early Breast Neoplasm Screening (DENSE) trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01315015), after a negative screening mammography in the national population-based mammography screening programme. Demographics of participants and non-participants were compared. All invitees were asked to report reasons for (non)participation. Ethical approval was obtained. Participants provided written informed consent. RESULTS: Of the 8,061 invitees, 66% answered that they were interested, and 59% eventually participated. Participants were on average 54-years old (interquartile range: 51-59 years), comparable to women with extremely dense breasts in the population-based screening programme (55 years). Women with higher socio-economic status (SES) were more often interested in participation than women with lower SES (68% versus 59%, p<0.001). The most frequently stated reasons for non-participation were "MRI-related inconveniences and/or self-reported contraindications to MRI" (27%) and "anxiety regarding the result of supplemental screening" (21%). "Expected personal health benefit" (68%) and "contribution to science" (43%) were the most frequent reasons for participation. CONCLUSION: Of women invited for MRI because of extremely dense breasts, 59% participated. Common reasons for non-participation were "MRI-related inconveniences" and "anxiety regarding the result of supplemental screening". In case of future implementation, availability of precise evidence on benefits and harms might reduce this anxiety.

Evaluation of the colorectal cancer screening Programme in the Basque Country (Spain) and its effectiveness based on the Miscan-colon model.

The population-based Basque Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Screening Programme started in 2009 with a biennial immunochemical quantitative test (FIT) biennial and colonoscopy under sedation in positive cases. The population target of 586,700 residents was from 50 to 69 years old and the total coverage was reached at the beginning of 2014. The aim of our study was to determine possible scenarios in terms of incidence, mortality and reduction of Life-years-Lost (L-y-L) in the medium and long term of CRC. METHODS: Invitations were sent out by the Programme from 2009 to 2014, with combined organizational strategies. Simulation was done by MISCAN-colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis) over 30 years comparing the results of screening vs no-screening, taking the population-based Cancer Registry into account. Lifetime population and real data from the Programme were used from 2008 to 2012. The model was run differentially for men and women. RESULTS: 924,416 invitations were sent out from 2009 to 2014. The average participation rate was 68.4%, CRC detection rate was 3.4% and the Advanced Adenoma detection rate was 24.0‰, with differences observed in sex and age. Future scenarios showed a higher decrease of incidence (17.2% vs 14.7%), mortality (28.1% vs 22.4%) and L-y-L (22.6% vs 18.4%) in men than women in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: The Basque Country CRC Programme results are aligned to its strategy and comparable to other programmes. MISCAN model was found to be a useful tool to predict the benefits of the programme in the future. The effectiveness of the Programme has not been formally established as case control studies are required to determine long term benefits from the screening strategy.

The effect of omitting an early population-based vision screen in the Netherlands: A micro-simulation model approach.

Objective To estimate the effect of omitting an individual screen from a child vision screening programme on the detection of amblyopia in the Netherlands. A previous study (Rotterdam Amblyopia Screening Effectiveness Study) suggested that the three screens carried out between 6 and 24 months contributed little. Methods We developed a micro-simulation model that approximated the birth-cohort data from the previous study, in which 2964 children had completed follow-up at age 7, and 100 amblyopia cases were detected. Detailed data on screens, referrals, and orthoptic follow-up, including the cause of amblyopia, were available. The model predicted the number of amblyopia cases detected for each screen and for the entire screening programme, and the effect of omitting screens. Incidence curves for all types of amblyopia caused by strabismus, refractive anomalies or by both were estimated by approximation of the observational data, in conjunction with experts' estimations and the literature. Results We calculated mean actual sensitivity per screen per type of amblyopia, and the effect per screen. Screening at 24 months was found to be least effective. The impact on the screening programme, estimated by summing the effectiveness per screen, omitting the 24-month screen, was a reduction of 3.4% (57 vs. 59 cases) in the number of detected cases of amblyopia at age 5. Conclusion The effectiveness of the Dutch vision screening programme would hardly be affected by omission of the 24-month screening examination. A disinvestment study is warranted.

Uniform and blinded cause of death verification of the NELSON lung cancer screening participants.

Primary outcome of the Dutch-Belgian lung cancer screening trial (NELSON) is lung cancer-specific mortality. Accurate assessment of the cause of death (CoD) is crucial. As death certificates regarding the CoD can be inaccurate, a clinical expert committee (CEC) was formed to assign the CoD. In this study, the medical files of deceased lung cancer patients were reviewed and the outcomes were compared with official death certificates. The first 266 completed medical files of Dutch deceased participants who were diagnosed with lung cancer during the study or of those with lung cancer on the death certificate were selected and blinded towards arms and patients identity. The end product of the review process consisted of six possible categories which defined the graduation of certainty that lung cancer was the primary CoD. The percentage agreement and the Cohen's kappa statistics between the two CEC-memberswere calculated. The sensitivity and specificity of the official death certificates were determined. The results indicated that, the overall concordance and the Cohen's kappa between the CEC-memberswere 86.1% and 0.57(0.45-0.69, p<0.001), respectively. This level increased with the numbers of cases evaluated. The sensitivity and the specificity of the official death certificate were 92.6% and 98.8%; 6.5% cases were reclassified to lung cancer specific death, which is lower than in the National Lung Screening trial(22.0%). Concluding, each death should be reviewed by at least two members. So far, in the NELSON trial, possible biases related to lung cancer death seem relatively small.

Bone density loss on computed tomography at 3-year follow-up in current compared to former male smokers.

OBJECTIVES: Cigarette smoking negatively affects bone quality and increases fracture risk. Little is known on the effect of smoking cessation and computed tomography (CT)-derived bone mineral density (BMD) decline in the spine. We evaluated the association of current and former smoking with BMD decline after 3-year follow-up. METHODS: Male current and former smokers participating in a lung cancer screening trial who underwent baseline and 3-year follow-up CT were included. BMD was measured by manual placement of a region of interest in the first lumbar vertebra and expressed in Hounsfield Unit (HU). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between pack years smoked and smoking status with BMD decline. RESULTS: 408 participants were included with median (25th-75th percentile) age of 59.4 (55.9-63.5) years. At the start of the study, 197 (48.3%) participants were current smokers and 211 (51.7%) were former smokers and had a similar amount of pack years. Current smokers had quit smoking for 6 (4-8) years prior to inclusion. There was no difference in BMD between current and former smokers at baseline (109±34 HU vs. 108±32 HU, p=0.96). At 3-year follow-up, current smokers had a mean BMD decline of -3±13 HU (p=0.001), while BMD in former smokers did not change as compared to baseline (1±13 HU, p=0.34). After adjustment for BMD at baseline and body mass index, current smoking was independently associated with BMD decline (-3.8 HU, p=0.003). Age, pack years, and the presence of a fracture at baseline did not associate with BMD decline. CONCLUSIONS: Current smokers showed a more rapid BMD decline over a 3-year period compared to former smokers. This information might be important to identify subjects at risk for osteoporosis and emphasizes the importance of smoking cessation in light of BMD decline.

Cost-effectiveness of the Norwegian breast cancer screening program.

The Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) has a nation-wide coverage since 2005. All women aged 50-69 years are invited biennially for mammography screening. We evaluated breast cancer mortality reduction and performed a cost-effectiveness analysis, using our microsimulation model, calibrated to most recent data. The microsimulation model allows for the comparison of mortality and costs between a (hypothetical) situation without screening and a situation with screening. Breast cancer incidence in Norway had a steep increase in the early 1990s. We calibrated the model to simulate this increase and included recent costs for screening, diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer and travel and productivity loss. We estimate a 16% breast cancer mortality reduction for a cohort of women, invited to screening, followed over their complete lifetime. Cost-effectiveness is estimated at NOK 112,162 per QALY gained, when taking only direct medical costs into account (the cost of the buses, examinations, and invitations). We used a 3.5% annual discount rate. Cost-effectiveness estimates are substantially below the threshold of NOK 1,926,366 as recommended by the WHO guidelines. For the Norwegian population, which has been gradually exposed to screening, breast cancer mortality reduction for women exposed to screening is increasing and is estimated to rise to ∼30% in 2020 for women aged 55-80 years. The NBCSP is a highly cost-effective measure to reduce breast cancer specific mortality. We estimate a breast cancer specific mortality reduction of 16-30%, at the cost of 112,162 NOK per QALY gained.

Implementation of an Educational Cartoon ("the Patchbook") and Other Compliance-Enhancing Measures by Orthoptists in Occlusion Treatment of Amblyopia.

PURPOSE: This implementation study evaluated orthoptists' use of an educational cartoon ("the Patchbook") and other measures to improve compliance with occlusion therapy for amblyopia. METHODS: Participating orthoptists provided standard orthoptic care for one year, adding the Patchbook in the second year. They attended courses on compliance and intercultural communication by communication skills training. Many other compliance-enhancing measures were initiated. Orthoptists' awareness, attitude, and activities regarding noncompliance were assessed through interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Their use of the Patchbook was measured. The study was performed in low socio-economic status (SES) areas and in other areas in the Netherlands. It was attempted to integrate education on compliance into basic and continuing orthoptic training. RESULTS: The Patchbook was used by all 9 orthoptists who participated in low-SES areas and 17 of 23 orthoptists in other areas. Courses changed awareness and attitude about compliance, but this was not sustained. Although orthoptists estimated compliance during patching at 70%, three-quarters never suspected noncompliance during a full day of observation in any of their patients. Explanations to parents who spoke Dutch poorly were short. In the second year, explanations to children were longer. Implementation of all 7 additional compliance-enhancing measures failed. Education on compliance was not integrated into orthoptists' training. CONCLUSION: Almost all orthoptists used the Patchbook and, as another study demonstrated, it proved to be very effective, especially in low-SES areas. Duration of explanation was inversely proportional to parents' fluency in Dutch. Noncompliance was rarely suspected by orthoptists. Although 7 additional compliance-enhancing measures had been conceived and planned with the best intentions, they were not realized. These required extra, unpaid time from the orthoptists, which is especially scarce in hospitals in low-SES areas where the educational cartoon is most needed.

The distribution of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) grade in 4232 women and its impact on overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) has rapidly increased over time. The malignant potential of DCIS is dependent on its differentiation grade. METHODS: Our aim is to determine the distribution of different grades of DCIS among women screened in the mass screening programme, and women not screened in the mass screening programme, and to estimate the amount of overdiagnosis by grade of DCIS. We retrospectively included a population-based sample of 4232 women with a diagnosis of DCIS in the years 2007-2009 from the Nationwide network and registry of histopathology and cytopathology in the Netherlands. Excluded were women with concurrent invasive breast cancer, lobular carcinoma in situ and no DCIS, women recently treated for invasive breast cancer, no grade mentioned in the record, inconclusive record on invasion, and prevalent DCIS. The screening status was obtained via the screening organisations. The distribution of grades was incorporated in the well-established and validated microsimulation model MISCAN. RESULTS: Overall, 17.7 % of DCIS were low grade, 31.4 % intermediate grade, and 50.9 % high grade. This distribution did not differ by screening status, but did vary by age. Older women were more likely to have low-grade DCIS than younger women. Overdiagnosis as a proportion of all cancers in women of the screening age was 61 % for low-grade, 57 % for intermediate-grade, 45 % for high-grade DCIS. For women age 50-60 years with a high-grade DCIS this overdiagnosis rate was 21-29 %, compared to 50-66 % in women age 60-75 years with high-grade DCIS. CONCLUSIONS: Amongst the rapidly increasing numbers of DCIS diagnosed each year is a significant number of overdiagnosed cases. Tailoring treatment to the probability of progression is the next step to preventing overtreatment. The basis of this tailoring could be DCIS grade and age.

Swiss Medical Board Mammography screening predictions for Switzerland: importance of time-periods.

OBJECTIVES: In 2013, the Swiss Medical Board (SMB) concluded that for three breast cancer screens over 13 years in Switzerland, cost-effectiveness was negative, with no additional benefits in quality-adjusted life-years gained. We compared these suggested predicted effects with other estimates. METHODS: We used an extensively validated model on the natural history of breast cancer in Switzerland, comparing a 13-year time frame, a life-time perspective, and a continuous screening programme, per 10,000 Swiss women. Both approaches used the Swedish randomized controlled trials for the theoretical effect. RESULTS: Over 13 years, both approaches yield comparable life-years gained (56 versus 67), but in expectation in 10,000 women's lifetimes 444 life-years are gained, and in a continuous screening programme (instead of three screens) 839 years. The SMB estimate of 56 life-years gained is counterweighted by 57 negative quality of life adjusted years, primarily resulting from a 5% annual loss for 10% of women, being false-positive results. International literature is consistent with more than four times lower losses on false-positives. The estimate of overdiagnosed cases in the 13-year time frame was four times higher than in the long-term perspective. CONCLUSIONS: By restricting life-years gained to a 13-year time frame the SMB prediction on benefits of mammography screening is unrealistically low. Predicting long-term harms and benefits, specifically tailored to observations, regarding the clinical situation before screening commences, and possible data during a screening programme, are crucial for women, professionals, and policymakers.

Overdiagnosis by mammographic screening for breast cancer studied in birth cohorts in The Netherlands.

A drawback of early detection of breast cancer through mammographic screening is the diagnosis of breast cancers that would never have become clinically detected. This phenomenon, called overdiagnosis, is ideally quantified from the breast cancer incidence of screened and unscreened cohorts of women with follow-up until death. Such cohorts do not exist, requiring other methods to estimate overdiagnosis. We are the first to quantify overdiagnosis from invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in birth cohorts using an age-period-cohort -model (APC-model) including variables for the initial and subsequent screening rounds and a 5-year period after leaving screening. Data on the female population and breast cancer incidence were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, "Stichting Medische registratie" and the Dutch Cancer Registry for women aged 0-99 years. Data on screening participation was obtained from the five regional screening organizations. Overdiagnosis was calculated from the excess breast cancer incidence in the screened group divided by the breast cancer incidence in presence of screening for women aged 20-99 years (population perspective) and for women in the screened-age range (individual perspective). Overdiagnosis of invasive breast cancer was 11% from the population perspective and 17% from the invited women perspective in birth cohorts screened from age 49 to 74. For invasive breast cancer and DCIS together, overdiagnosis was 14% from population perspective and 22% from invited women perspective. A major strength of an APC-model including the different phases of screening is that it allows to estimate overdiagnosis in birth cohorts, thereby preventing overestimation.

Osteoporosis markers on low-dose lung cancer screening chest computed tomography scans predict all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVES: Further survival benefits may be gained from low-dose chest computed tomography (CT) by assessing vertebral fractures and bone density. We sought to assess the association between CT-measured vertebral fractures and bone density with all-cause mortality in lung cancer screening participants. METHODS: Following a case-cohort design, lung cancer screening trial participants (N = 3,673) who died (N = 196) during a median follow-up of 6 years (inter-quartile range: 5.7-6.3) were identified and added to a random sample of N = 383 from the trial. We assessed vertebral fractures using Genant's semiquantative method on sagittal reconstructions and measured bone density (Hounsfield Units (HU)) in vertebrae. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to determine if vertebral fractures or bone density were independently predictive of mortality. RESULTS: The prevalence of vertebral fractures was 35% (95% confidence interval 30-40%) among survivors and 51% (44-58%) amongst cases. After adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, pack years smoked, coronary and aortic calcium volume and pulmonary emphysema, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for vertebral fracture was 2.04 (1.43-2.92). For each 10 HU decline in trabecular bone density, the adjusted HR was 1.08 (1.02-1.15). CONCLUSIONS: Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently associated with all-cause mortality. KEY POINTS: • Lung cancer screening chest computed tomography contains additional, potentially useful information. • Vertebral fractures and bone density are independently predictive of mortality. • This finding has implications for screening and management decisions.

Cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening: a simulation study based on ERSPC data.

BACKGROUND: The results of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) trial showed a statistically significant 29% prostate cancer mortality reduction for the men screened in the intervention arm and a 23% negative impact on the life-years gained because of quality of life. However, alternative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening strategies for the population may exist, optimizing the effects on mortality reduction, quality of life, overdiagnosis, and costs. METHODS: Based on data of the ERSPC trial, we predicted the numbers of prostate cancers diagnosed, prostate cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained, and cost-effectiveness of 68 screening strategies starting at age 55 years, with a PSA threshold of 3, using microsimulation modeling. The screening strategies varied by age to stop screening and screening interval (one to 14 years or once in a lifetime screens), and therefore number of tests. RESULTS: Screening at short intervals of three years or less was more cost-effective than using longer intervals. Screening at ages 55 to 59 years with two-year intervals had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $73000 per QALY gained and was considered optimal. With this strategy, lifetime prostate cancer mortality reduction was predicted as 13%, and 33% of the screen-detected cancers were overdiagnosed. When better quality of life for the post-treatment period could be achieved, an older age of 65 to 72 years for ending screening was obtained. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer screening can be cost-effective when it is limited to two or three screens between ages 55 to 59 years. Screening above age 63 years is less cost-effective because of loss of QALYs because of overdiagnosis.

Predictors of HPV vaccination uptake: a longitudinal study among parents.

To assess among parents longitudinal predictors of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake for their daughters, random samples of parents were identified via municipal services and sent baseline questionnaires in June 2009 and follow-up questionnaires in November 2011 after their uptake decision. Hierarchical logistic regression analysis was used to assess whether demographic characteristics, and affective and social cognitive factors, predicted uptake at follow-up. Response rates of the baseline and follow-up questionnaire were 29.8% (1762/5918) and 74.3% (793/1067), respectively. Uptake was predicted by a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision about uptake as HPV vaccination implementation [odds ratio (OR) 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-5.52], anticipated regret about no uptake (OR 1.43; 95% CI 1.08-1.89) and intention (OR 2.61; 95% CI 1.47-4.61). There was an interaction between ambivalence and attitude (OR 1.68; 95% CI 1.14-2.47); parents with a positive attitude and a high ambivalence toward vaccination were more likely to have their daughter vaccinated than parents with a positive attitude and a low ambivalence. An informed choice about uptake (5/7 correct items) was made by 44%. In conclusion, uptake was predicted by intention, a later (2011) versus earlier (2010) decision and by anticipated regret about no uptake. Decisions regarding new vaccines are difficult to make, we recommend a well-balanced implementation process.

Immediate and delayed effects of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality and incidence in birth cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Trend studies investigating the impact of mammographic screening usually display age-specific mortality and incidence rates over time, resulting in an underestimate of the benefit of screening, that is, mortality reduction, and an overestimate of its major harmful effect, that is, overdiagnosis. This study proposes a more appropriate way of analysing trends. METHODS: Breast cancer mortality (1950-2009) and incidence data (1975-2009) were obtained from Statistics Netherlands, 'Stg. Medische registratie' and the National Cancer Registry in the Netherlands for women aged 25-85 years. Data were visualised in age-birth cohort and age-period figures. RESULTS: Birth cohorts invited to participate in the mammographic screening programme showed a deflection in the breast cancer mortality rates within the first 5 years after invitation. Thereafter, the mortality rate increased, although less rapidly than in uninvited birth cohorts. Furthermore, invited birth cohorts showed a sharp increase in invasive breast cancer incidence rate during the first 5 years of invitation, followed by a moderate increase during the following screening years and a decline after passing the upper age limit. CONCLUSION: When applying a trend study to estimate the impact of mammographic screening, we recommend using a birth cohort approach.