Are autopsies on minors a taboo?: The experience of Milan in a 19-year retrospective study.

Forensic autopsy is an important tool for the proper management of non-natural deaths in minors. However, it seems that autopsy in minors is a practice which may not be performed routinely. In this framework, we conducted a study analyzing autopsies of minors (under 18 years of age in Italy) performed at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Milan in the period 2001-2019. For the period 2015-2019, we extrapolated all deaths due to non-natural causes in minors to investigate how many and which of these deaths were not subjected to forensic autopsy. Of the total, 344 minors (235 males and 109 females) underwent autopsies, with an overall downward trend of about 80% since 2004. Most autopsies occurred between the ages of 0 and 1 year, and the fewest between the ages of 5 and 9 years. The place of death was home in most cases, and accidental death was most common, followed by natural death, suicide, and homicide, with prevalence varying by age group. Blunt force trauma predominated among accidental death in all age groups, followed by asphyxia. Similar findings were observed for suicides, although there was a more differentiated pattern for suicides between the ages of 15 and 17 years. Among homicides, blunt force trauma, asphyxia, and gunshot wounds were fairly evenly distributed across all age groups. Between 2015 and 2019, a total of 86 minors died of a non-natural cause, and a forensic autopsy was performed in only 33 cases (38%). Our data shows that fewer and fewer autopsies are being performed over the last years, which indicates a dangerous lack of forensic investigation of children and adolescent deaths, with enormous implications for prevention of child abuse.

Trends in mortality from non-natural causes in children and adolescents (0-19 years) in Europe from 2000 to 2018.

BACKGROUND: Non-natural mortality in children and adolescents is a global public health problem that varies widely from country to country. Data on child and adolescent maltreatment are not readily available, and mortality due to violent causes is also underestimated. METHODS: Injury-related mortality rates (overall and by specific causes) from 2000 to 2018 in selected European countries were analysed to observe mortality patterns in children and adolescents using data from the Eurostat database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated for each country. Joinpoint regression analysis with a significance level of 0.05 and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality trends. RESULTS: Children and adolescent mortality from non-natural causes decreased significantly in Europe from 10.48 around 2005 to 5.91 around 2015. The Eastern countries (Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic) had higher rates; while Spain, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom had the lowest. Rates for European Country declined by 5.10% per year over the entire period. Larger downward trends were observed in Ireland, Spain and Portugal; smaller downward trends were observed for Eastern countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia) and Finland. Among specific causes of death, the largest decreases were observed for accidental causes (-5.9%) and traffic accidents (-6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality among children and adolescents due to non-natural causes has decreased significantly over the past two decades. Accidental events and transport accidents recorded the greatest decline in mortality rates, although there are still some European countries where the number of deaths among children and adolescents from non-natural causes is high. Social, cultural, and health-related reasons may explain the observed differences between countries.

[Reduction of adverse outcome due to COVID-19 infection in a high-risk population: evaluation of an informative intervention through active call by General Practitioners]. / Riduzione degli outcome sfavorevoli dovuti all'infezione da COVID-19 su una popolazione ad alto rischio: valutazione di un intervento informativo mediante chiamata attiva da parte dei medici di medicina generale.

BACKGROUND: currently, individuals at risk of adverse outcomes for COVID-19 can access to vaccination and pharmacological interventions. But, during the first epidemic wave, there were no treatments or therapeutic strategies available to reduce adverse outcomes in patients at risk. OBJECTIVES: to assess the impact of an intervention at 15-month follow-up developed by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan (ATS Milan) based on telephone triage and consultation by the General Practitioners (GPs) for patient with high-risk for adverse outcomes. DESIGN: intervention on population. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a total of 127,292 patients in the ATS aged ≥70 years and with comorbidities associated with an increased risk of dying from COVID-19 infection were identified. Using a specific information system, patients were assigned to their GPs for telephone triage and consultation. GPs inform them about the risks of the disease, non-pharmacological prevention measures, and precautions in contacts with family members and other persons. No specific clinical intervention was carried out, only an information/training intervention was performed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: by the end of May 2020, 48.613 patients had been contacted and 78.679 had not been contacted. Hazard Ratios (HRs) of infection hospitalisation and death at 3 and 15 months were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted by confounder. RESULTS: no differences in gender, age class distribution, prevalence of specific diseases, and Charlson Index were found between the two groups (treated such as called patients and not called). Called patients had a higher propensity for influenza and antipneumococcal vaccination and have more comorbidities and greater access to pharmacological therapies. Non-called patients have a greater risk for COVID-19 infection: HR was 3.88 (95%CI 3.48-4.33) at 3 months and 1.28 (95%CI 1.23-1.33) at 15 months; for COVID-19 hospitalization HR was 2.66 (95%CI 2.39-2,95) at 3 months and 1.31 (95%CI 1.25-1.37) at 15 months; for overall mortality HR was 2,52 (95%CI 2.35-2:72) at 3 months and 1.23 (95%CI 1.19-1.27) at 15 months. CONCLUSIONS: the results of this study show a reduction in hospitalization and deaths and support, in case of pandemic events, the implementation of new care strategies based on adapted stratification systems in order to protect the population's health. This study presents some limits: it is not randomized; a selection bias is present (called patients were those most in contact with the GPs); the intervention is indication-based (on march 2020, the actual benefit of protection and distancing for high-risk groups was unclear), and the adjustment is not able to fully control for confounding. However, this study points out the importance to develop information systems and improve methods to best protect the health of the population in setting of territorial epidemiology.

First SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster and influenza vaccination: risk assessment of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death.

BACKGROUND: the influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses share a common respiratory symptomatology and transmission mode. COVID-19 and influenza R0 overlapped in the first epidemic wave. In autumn 2021-winter 2022, the influenza epidemic had a delayed onset compared to pre-COVID-19 years and lower incidence rates than in the pre-pandemic period. The SARS-CoV-2 and influenza vaccination campaign overlapped in 2021-2022. OBJECTIVES: to evaluate in the SARS-CoV-2 vaccinated cohort the effect of different timing of influenza vaccination on hospitalisations for COVID-19 and overall mortality. DESIGN: prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: subjects aged 65 years or older who were administered the first booster dose of SARS-COV-2 vaccine between 01.10.2021 and 01.03.2022. Based on the date of influenza vaccination, subjects were divided into the following 4 different mutually exclusive groups: 1. two vaccinations in the same vaccination session; 2. influenza vaccination following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 3. influenza vaccination preceding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination; 4. no influenza vaccination. Using Cox regression models, hazard ratio (HR) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hospitalisation and death were estimated for the influenza-vaccinated subjects compared to influenza-unvaccinated subjects. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ordinary hospital admissions for COVID-19 and general mortality. RESULTS: the cohort included 618,964 subjects: 16.3% received two vaccinations in the same vaccination session, 8.5% received the influenza vaccination after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, 33.9% received it before and 41.1% did not receive an influenza vaccination. Those vaccinated against both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza had a combined HR of 0.73 (0.62-0.86) of hospitalisation for COVID-19 and 0.55 (0.49-0.62) of overall mortality compared to those vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 only. CONCLUSIONS: influenza vaccination combined with SARS-CoV-2 vaccination increases the protective effect against hospitalisations and overall mortality compared to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alone. Both organisational and communication actions aimed to promote and encourage vaccination are required.

Adherence to Mediterranean Diet of Breastfeeding Mothers and Fatty Acids Composition of Their Human Milk: Results From the Italian MEDIDIET Study.

Background and Aims: The content of fatty acids (FA) in human milk may be influenced by maternal nutrition. We evaluated the role of a Mediterranean diet in influencing the content of FA in human milk among 282 breastfeeding mothers participating in the MEDIDIET study. Materials and Methods: Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), a composite index, was used to evaluate adherence to the Mediterranean diet. It includes 9 components (i.e., vegetables, fruit, cereals, legumes, monounsaturated to saturated FA ratio - MUFA/SFA, fish, dairy products, meat, and alcohol) and therefore potentially ranges from 0 (no adherence) to 9 (complete adherence) points. None of the mothers obtained the highest score due to the low alcohol consumption in the study population. Mothers were categorized in approximate tertiles of adherence: 0-3 (34.4%), 4 (26.2%), and 5-8 points (39.4%). The mean content of FA across categories of MDS was compared using ANOVA and test for trend. Results: A high adherence of breastfeeding mothers to the Mediterranean diet was associated with lower content of SFA in human milk (42.58 ± 4.36 for MDS = 0-3, 42.58 ± 4.89 for MDS = 4, and 40.92 ± 5.22% of fats for MDS = 5-8 points; p ANOVA and p for trend = 0.02). Conversely, a high adherence was associated with higher content of MUFA in human milk (43.27 ± 4.27 for MDS = 0-3, 43.27 ± 4.47 for MDS = 4, and 45.24 ± 5.22% of fats for MDS = 5-8 points; p ANOVA and p for trend < 0.01), ω-3 FA (1.07 ± 0.25 for MDS = 0-3, 1.22 ± 0.49 for MDS = 4, and 1.31 ± 0.51% of fats for MDS = 5-8 points; p ANOVA and p for trend < 0.01), and the major types of ω-3 FA (i.e., α-linolenic acid - ALA, eicosapentaenoic acid - EPA, docosahexaenoic acid - DHA, docosapentaenoic acid - DPA). These associations were mainly driven by the adherence to the vegetables, MUFA/SFA, fish, and dairy products components of the Mediterranean diet. Conclusion: A high adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with human milk showing a lower content of SFA and higher content of MUFA and ω-3 FA, including DHA. The Mediterranean diet may contribute in human milk production with higher content of specific FA which is directly involved in infant's neural and visual development, as reported by previous studies.

Boosters and time from the last anti-COVID-19 vaccine dose: lead public health choices by real-time epidemiological assessment.

BACKGROUND: the levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies after the second vaccine dose decline in the following months; the administration of an additional vaccine dose (booster) is able to restore the immune system in the short period significantly reducing the risk of a severe disease. In the winter of 2021, a new particularly infectious variant caused the urgent need to increase the coverage of the booster dose. OBJECTIVES: to present, using real data, an evaluation of the efficacy of the booster dose in reducing the severe disease of SARS-CoV-2 infection in terms of hospital admissions, intensive care and death from all causes. DESIGN: descriptive study of vaccine adherence; associative study of the factors linked with adherence of vaccination and COVID-19 symptoms; associative study of vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission and mortality. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based study in the Milan and Lodi provinces (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy) with subjects aged >=19 years alive at 01.10.2021, not residing in a nursery home, followed up to 31.12.2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalization for COVID-19, intensive care hospitalization, and all-cause mortality in the period 01.10.2021-31.12.2021. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,936,193 patients at 01.10.2021: at the end of the follow-up period (31.12.2021), 378,616 (12.9%) had no vaccine, 128,879 (4.3%) had only 1 dose, 412,227 (14.0%) had a 2nd dose given since less than 4 months, 725. 806 (25%) had a 2nd dose given since 4-7 months, 74,152 (2.5%) had a 2nd dose given since 7+ months, 62,614 (2.1%) had a 2nd dose and have had the disease, and 1,153,899 (39.3%) received the booster. In the study period (01.10.2021-31.12.2021), characterized by a very high prevalence of the omicron variant, 121,620 cases (antigenic/molecular buffer positive), 3,661 hospitalizations for COVID-19, 162 ICU hospitalizations, and 7,508 deaths from all causes were identified. Compared to unvaccinated people, subjects who had the booster dose had half the risk of being symptomatic, in particular for asthenia, muscle pain, and dyspnoea which are the most commons COVID-19 symptoms. In comparison with the subjects who had the booster dose, the unvaccinated had a 10-fold risk of hospitalization for COVID-19, a 9-fold risk of intensive care, and a 3-fold risk of dying. CONCLUSIONS: this work highlights the vaccination efficacy in reducing serious adverse events for those who undergo the booster and the need to implement specific engagement policies to bring to a booster those who had taken the second dose since the longest time.

Age-period-cohort effects in utilization of diagnostic procedures leading to incidental colorectal cancer detection.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Despite the overall decrease in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence, a small but constant rise has been recently observed in people younger than 50 years across several countries. This phenomenon can be explained by environmental or lifestyle factors, but it may also be partially justified by an increasing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures that may lead to CRC incidental diagnosis. METHODS: We performed an age-period-cohort analysis on 1 815 694 diagnostic procedures undertook by the population of the City of Milan, served by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan, between 1999 and 2018. We considered all instances of colonoscopy, rectoscopy, fecal occult blood test (FOBT) and ultrasonography. We stratified by gender, nationality and quintile of socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: Incidence of utilization rose with age for all procedures but rectoscopy; there was a marked increase from 2005 to 2010 for FOBT and colonoscopy. A strong all-procedures cohort effect was observed, greater for FOBT and colonoscopy. A steady increase of diagnostic procedures utilization started in cohorts born in the late 1950s, with a relative effect rising from 0.91 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90-0.92] for the 1950 cohort to 5.03 (95% CI, 4.58-5.48) for the 1990 one. CONCLUSION: We found a growing tendency in younger cohorts to undertake diagnostic procedures, explainable by inappropriate access to endoscopic procedures, that can lead to an incidental diagnosis of CRC. This finding may at least partially explain the observed rising incidence of early-onset CRC.

Evaluation of the anti-COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the Metropolitan Area of Milan (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy).

OBJECTIVES: to present an evaluation of the campaign for vaccination against COVID-19 in the territory covered by the Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan from 01.01.2021 to 30.09.2021. DESIGN: descriptive study of vaccine adherence; predictive study of the factors associated with vaccine adherence, efficacy of vaccination in terms of hospitalization and mortality, and factors that increase the risk of hospital admission following full vaccination. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based study with subjects aged >18 years eligible for vaccination (N. 2,981,997). An information system obtained by integrating various administrative healthcare sources made it possible to analyse socioeconomic characteristics, COVID-19 related hospitalizations, and general mortality in subjects eligible for vaccination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: full vaccination (2 doses); COVID-19-related hospitalizations, COVID-19-related hospitalizations occurring more than 15 days after the second dose, general mortality. RESULTS: in the first nine months of the vaccination campaign, 74.7% of the subjects (N. 2,228,915) was fully vaccinated, whereas 15.6% (N. 465,829) did not even receive one dose. Women have a lower probability of getting vaccinated than men; the 50-59 years and 70+ years age groups emerge as the most problematic to reach, while the younger one (<40) is the most adherent. A social gradient emerged, with residents of more disadvantaged areas progressively less incline to get vaccinated than those living in more affluent areas. Adherence is greater in Italian citizenship and is likely to increase with an increase in the number of chronic conditions. Hospitalizations amounted to 1.22% (N. 5,672) in the unvaccinated population compared to 0.05% (N. 1,013) in the vaccinated population; general mortality was 4.51% (N. 15,198) in the unvaccinated population against 0.32% (N. 8.733) in the vaccinated population. Sociodemographic factors and the presence of previous health conditions are important predictors of hospitalization outcomes even within the fully vaccinated population. Specifically, the highest hazard ratios are found in subjects with heart failure (HR 2.15; 95%CI 1.83-2.53), in immunocompromised patients (HR 2.02; 95%CI 1.52-2.69), and in transplant recipients (HR 1.92; 95%CI 1.10-3.33). CONCLUSIONS: vaccination campaign adherence is affected by the sociodemographic characteristics of the population and is a determining factor in preventing hospitalizations for COVID-19 and death. The persistent higher risk of hospitalization in chronic subjects following the second dose emphasizes the need to direct booster doses to the more vulnerable. Information systems proved to be effective monitoring tools in the absence of specific trials.

Dietary Intake of Breastfeeding Mothers in Developed Countries: A Systematic Review and Results of the MEDIDIET Study.

BACKGROUND: Lactation is a demanding period for women, and a good nutrition is crucial for optimal health of mothers and infants. OBJECTIVES: To provide new data and summarize the overall evidence on maternal nutrient intakes during lactation in developed countries, we present a systematic review (SR) of the literature and concurrently original results of the Italian MEDIDIET study. We compared nutrient intakes with dietary reference values (DRVs) proposed by the European Food Safety Authority. METHODS: Studies were identified searching PubMed/Embase databases up to February 2020. Observational studies reporting at least energy and macronutrient intakes of healthy breastfeeding mothers who followed non-restricted and non-specific diets were included. Studies on populations with severe nutritional deficiencies were excluded. The MEDIDIET study enrolled 300 healthy breastfeeding mothers at 6 ± 1 wk postpartum. Usual diet was concomitantly evaluated through a validated and reproducible FFQ. Nutrient intakes were estimated using a food composition database. RESULTS: Twenty-eight articles regarding 32 distinct study populations were included. Maternal nutrient intakes were generally in agreement across studies included in the SR and conforming to DRVs. Within micronutrients, vitamin D intake was below the recommendation. In the MEDIDIET study, mean intakes of energy (1950 ± 445 kcal/d), carbohydrates (270 ± 20.1 g/d), proteins (87.8 ± 20.1 g/d), and fats (65.6 ± 18.9 g/d) were similar to those observed in the SR. Moreover, observed intakes seemed to reflect the typical Mediterranean diet, with low intakes of carbohydrates, SFAs, and PUFAs and high intakes of MUFAs and vitamins. Conversely, protein intake was mainly derived from animal sources. CONCLUSIONS: This SR showed that nutrient intakes of breastfeeding mothers in developed countries are generally in line with DRVs despite different dietary patterns worldwide. Some nutritional deficiencies emerged, highlighting the need for additional nutritional advice. Mothers participating in the MEDIDIET study showed a nutritional profile in agreement with the Mediterranean diet.

Dietary Patterns of Breastfeeding Mothers and Human Milk Composition: Data from the Italian MEDIDIET Study.

(1) Background: Several studies have reported associations between maternal diet in terms of single foods or nutrients and human milk compounds, while the overall role of maternal diet and related dietary patterns has rarely been investigated. (2) Methods: Between 2012 and 2014, we enrolled 300 healthy Italian mothers, who exclusively breastfed their infant. During a hospital visit at 6 weeks postpartum, a sample of freshly expressed foremilk was collected and information on maternal dietary habits in the postpartum period was obtained through an interviewer-administered food frequency questionnaire. We applied principal component factor analysis to selected nutrients in order to identify maternal dietary patterns, and assessed correlations in human milk macronutrients and fatty acids across levels of dietary patterns. (3) Results: Five dietary patterns were identified, named "Vitamins, minerals and fibre", "Proteins and fatty acids with legs", "Fatty acids with fins", "Fatty acids with leaves", "Starch and vegetable proteins". These dietary patterns were correlated with some milk components, namely fatty acids, and in particular ω-3 and its subcomponents. (4) Conclusions: This study showed that overall maternal dietary habits during breastfeeding may influence human milk composition, suggesting the importance of adequate maternal nutrition during lactation not only for the mother herself but also to provide the infant with milk containing adequate amount and quality of nutrients for a balanced nutrition.

Strategy to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination: A population based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from COVID-19 outbreak shows that individuals with specific chronic diseases are at higher risk of severe prognosis after infection. Public health authorities are developing vaccination programmes with priorities that minimize the risk of mortality and severe events in individuals and communities. We propose an evidence-based strategy that targets the frailest subjects whose timely vaccination is likely to minimize future deaths and preserve the resilience of the health service by preventing infections. METHODS: The cohort includes 146,087 cases with COVID-19 diagnosed in 2020 in Milan (3.49 million inhabitants). Individual level data on 42 chronic diseases and vital status updated as of January 21, 2021, were available in administrative data. Analyses were performed in three sub-cohorts of age (16-64, 65-79 and 80+ years) and comorbidities affecting mortality were selected by means of LASSO cross-validated conditional logistic regression. Simplified models based on previous results identified high-risk categories worth targeting with highest priority. Results adjusted by age and gender, were reported in terms of odds ratios and 95%CI. RESULTS: The final models include as predictors of mortality (7,667 deaths, 5.2%) 10, 12, and 5 chronic diseases, respectively. The older age categories shared, as risk factors, chronic renal failure, chronic heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, Parkinson disease and psychiatric diseases. In the younger age category, predictors included neoplasm, organ transplantation and psychiatric conditions. Results were consistent with those obtained on mortality at 60 days from diagnosis (6,968 deaths). CONCLUSION: This approach defines a two-level stratification for priorities in the vaccination that can easily be applied by health authorities, eventually adapted to local results in terms of number and types of comorbidities, and rapidly updated with current data. After the early phase of vaccination, data on effectiveness and safety will give the opportunity to revise prioritization and discuss the future approach in the remaining population.

Trend of pneumonia diagnosis in emergency departments as a COVID-19 surveillance system: a time series study.

OBJECTIVE: In Italy, the first diagnosis of COVID-19 was confirmed on 20 February 2020 in the Lombardy region. Given the rapid spread of the infection in the population, it was suggested that in Europe, and specifically in Italy, the virus had already been present in the last months of 2019. In this paper, we aim to evaluate the hypothesis on the early presence of the virus in Italy by analysing data on trends of access to emergency departments (EDs) of subjects with a diagnosis of pneumonia during the 2015-2020 period. DESIGN: Time series cohort study. SETTING: We collected data on visits due to pneumonia between 1 October 2015 and 31 May 2020 in all EDs of the Agency for Health Protection of Milan (ATS of Milan). Trend in the winter of 2019-2020 was compared with those in the previous 4 years in order to identify unexpected signals potentially associated with the occurrence of the pandemic. Aggregated data were analysed using a Poisson regression model adjusted for seasonality and influenza outbreaks. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES : Daily pneumonia-related visits in EDs. RESULTS : In the studied period, we observed 105 651 pneumonia-related ED visits. Compared with the expected, a lower occurrence was observed in January 2020, while an excess of pneumonia visits started in the province of Lodi on 21 February 2020, and almost 10 days later was observed in the remaining territory of the ATS of Milan. Overall, the peak in excess was found on 17 March 2020 (369 excess visits compared with previous years, 95% CI 353 to 383) and ended in May 2020, the administrative end of the Italian lockdown. CONCLUSIONS : An early warning system based on routinely collected administrative data could be a feasible and low-cost strategy to monitor the actual situation of the virus spread both at local and national levels.

Latent composite indicators for evaluating adherence to guidelines in patients with a colorectal cancer diagnosis.

Evidence-based guidelines for the correct management of cancer patients are developed on the idea that timely care can improve health prognoses and quality of life.The aim of this paper is to evaluate the adherence of clinical pathways to clinical guidelines provided at the hospital level, for colorectal cancer care.By using a retrospective observational study, we proposed a method for associating each patient to a healthcare provider and modeling adherence as a latent construct governed by a set of 10 influential indicators. These indicators measure the adherence to specific guidelines for diagnosis, surgical treatment, chemotherapy, and follow-up. The model used was that of the item response theory (IRT). When evaluating providers, the IRT allows for a comparison of indicators in terms of their discriminating ability and difficulty, and in terms of their adherence to guidelines. The IRT results were compared with non-latent methods: numerator-based weight and denominator-based weight.A strong degree of coherence of the indicators in measuring adherence, and a high level of overall agreement between latent and non-latent methods were noted. The IRT approach demonstrated similar providers' evaluations between endoscopy and histological assessment indicators. The greatest discriminating ability among providers could be attributed to all diagnostic exams, while the lowest was associated with follow-up endoscopies. The most difficult indicator to achieve was fecal occult blood test, while follow-up imaging was the easiest.In a decision-making framework, valuable indications can be derived from the use of IRT models rather than weighting methods. Using IRTs, we were able to highlight the principal indicators in terms of strength of discrimination, and to isolate those that merely duplicated information.

Describing the epidemic trends of COVID-19 in the area covered by Agency for Health Protection of the Metropolitan Area of Milan.

OBJECTIVES: to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020. DESIGN: descriptive study of COVID-19 cases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI. RESULTS: a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased. Territorial differences were observed in the epidemic spread, with a higher incidence in the Lodi area. CONCLUSIONS: estimated incidence and case fatality ratios were higher than national estimates for Italy. Each ATS-MI area had different epidemic spread patterns.

Assessment of the Overall Mortality during the COVID-19 Outbreak in the Provinces of Milan and Lodi (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy).

OBJECTIVES: to describe the overall mortality increase in the provinces of Milan and Lodi - area covered by the Agency for Health Protection of Milan - during the COVID-19 epidemic in the first four months of 2020, compare it with the same time period in the years 2016-2019, and evaluate to what extent the mortality can be directly attributed to the outbreak. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: using a new information system developed during the pandemic, we gathered data on the number of daily deaths in the population residing in the provinces of Milan and Lodi by Local Health Unit (ASST) and age groups. To describe the case fatality of COVID-19, we performed a record linkage with a database specially constructed during the epidemic to identify deaths that occurred in confirmed cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: mortality and excess mortality were analysed by comparing the number of observed deaths in the first 4 months of 2020 with the average deaths of the years 2016-2019 in the same calendar period and with expected deaths, estimated using a Poisson model. Furthermore, a measure of relative risk was calculated as observed/expected ratio with a 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: the increase in mortality for all causes occurring in the study population in the first 4 months of 2020 was 48.8%, 30.8% for ages between 60 and 69, 43.9% for ages between 70 and 79, and 56.7% for subjects above 80 years of age. Focusing on the epidemic period, from 1 March to 30 April, the excess is quantifiable as more than 2-fold and mainly concerns the population over 60 years of age. The excess mortality was observed in all local health units (ASSTs). The highest increments were in the province of Lodi and the North-East of Milan (ASST Nord). In the ASSTs of Lodi and Melegnano-Martesana the mortality excess was detectable from March 15th, while for the other ASSTs the increase began in the first week of April. CONCLUSIONS: evaluation of overall mortality in the provinces of Milan and Lodi during the first wave of the Covid-19 epidemic showed a significant excess compared to the first 4 months of the years 2016-2019, mainly in the population over 60 years of age. However, this excess cannot be completely attributed directly to COVID-19 itself. This phenomenon was more intense in the Lodi ASST, with daily deaths up to 5 times higher than expected.

Attributable fraction for multiple risk factors: Methods, interpretations, and examples.

The attributable fraction is the candidate tool to quantify individual shares of each risk factor on the disease burden in a population, expressing the proportion of cases ascribable to the risk factors. The original formula ignored the presence of other factors (i.e. multiple risk factors and/or confounders), and several adjusting methods for potential confounders have been proposed. However, crude and adjusted attributable fractions do not sum up to their joint attributable fraction (i.e. the number of cases attributable to all risk factors together) and their sum may exceed one. A different approach consists of partitioning the joint attributable fraction into exposure-specific shares leading to sequential and average attributable fractions. We provide an example using Italian case-control data on oral cavity cancer comparing crude, adjusted, sequential, and average attributable fractions for smoking and alcohol and provide an overview of the available software routines for their estimation. For each method, we give interpretation and discuss shortcomings. Crude and adjusted attributable fractions added up over than one, whereas sequential and average methods added up to the joint attributable fraction = 0.8112 (average attributable fractions for smoking and alcohol were 0.4894 and 0.3218, respectively). The attributable fraction is a well-known epidemiological measure that translates risk factors prevalence and disease occurrence in useful figures for a public health perspective. This work endorses their proper use and interpretation.

Dietary patterns and oral and pharyngeal cancer using latent class analysis.

The methods traditionally used to identify a posteriori dietary patterns are principal components, factor and cluster analysis. The aim of our study is to assess the relationship between dietary patterns derived with latent class analysis (LCA) and oral/pharyngeal cancer risk (OPC), highlighting the strengths of this method compared to traditional ones. We analyzed data from an Italian multicentric case-control study on OPC including 946 cases and 2,492 hospital controls. Dietary patterns were derived using LCA on 25 food groups. A multiple logistic regression model was used to derive odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for OPC according to the dietary patterns identified. We identified four dietary patterns. The first one was characterized by a high intake of leafy and fruiting vegetable and fruits (Prudent pattern), the second one showed a high intake of red meat and low intake of selected fruits and vegetables (Western pattern). The last two patterns showed a combination-type of diet. We labeled "Lower consumers-combination pattern" the cluster that showed a low intake of the majority of foods, and "Higher consumers-combination pattern" the one characterized by a high intake of various foods. Compared to the "Prudent pattern", the "Western" and the "Lower consumers-combination" ones were positively related to the risk of OPC (OR = 2.56, 95% CI: 1.90-3.45 and OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.64-3.02). No difference in risk emerged for the "Higher consumers-combination pattern" (OR = 1.28, 95% CI: 0.92-1.77).