Control yourself: ISPE-endorsed guidance in the application of self-controlled study designs in pharmacoepidemiology.

PURPOSE: Consensus is needed on conceptual foundations, terminology and relationships among the various self-controlled "trigger" study designs that control for time-invariant confounding factors and target the association between transient exposures (potential triggers) and abrupt outcomes. The International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) funded a working group of ISPE members to develop guidance material for the application and reporting of self-controlled study designs, similar to Standards of Reporting Observational Epidemiology (STROBE). This first paper focuses on navigation between the types of self-controlled designs to permit a foundational understanding with guiding principles. METHODS: We leveraged a systematic review of applications of these designs, that we term Self-controlled Crossover Observational PharmacoEpidemiologic (SCOPE) studies. Starting from first principles and using case examples, we reviewed outcome-anchored (case-crossover [CCO], case-time control [CTC], case-case-time control [CCTC]) and exposure-anchored (self-controlled case-series [SCCS]) study designs. RESULTS: Key methodological features related to exposure, outcome and time-related concerns were clarified, and a common language and worksheet to facilitate the design of SCOPE studies is introduced. CONCLUSIONS: Consensus on conceptual foundations, terminology and relationships among SCOPE designs will facilitate understanding and critical appraisal of published studies, as well as help in the design, analysis and review of new SCOPE studies. This manuscript is endorsed by ISPE.

Mortality following myocardial infarction among HIV-infected persons: the Center for AIDS Research Network Of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS).

BACKGROUND: Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have higher risks for myocardial infarction (MI) than the general population. This is driven in part by higher type 2 MI (T2MI, due to coronary supply-demand mismatch) rates among persons with HIV (PWH). In the general population, T2MI has higher mortality than type 1 MI (T1MI, spontaneous and generally due to plaque rupture and thrombosis). PWH have a greater burden of comorbidities and may therefore have an even greater excess risk for complication and death in the setting of T2MI. However, mortality patterns after T1MI and T2MI in HIV are unknown. METHODS: We analyzed mortality after MI among PWH enrolled in the multicenter, US-based Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (CNICS) cohort (N = 28,186). Incident MIs occurring between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 2014, were centrally adjudicated and classified as T1MI or T2MI. We first compared mortality following T1MI vs. T2MI among PWH. Cox survival analyses and Bayesian model averaging were then used to evaluate pre-MI covariates associated with mortality following T1MI and T2MI. RESULTS: Among the 596 out of 28,186 PWH who experienced MI (2.1%; 293 T1MI and 303 T2MI), mortality rates were significantly greater after T2MI (22.2/100 person-years; 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality 39%, 52%, and 62%) than T1MI (8.2/100 person-years; 1-, 3-, and 5-year mortality 15%, 22%, and 30%). Significant mortality predictors after T1MI were higher HIV viral load, renal dysfunction, and older age. Significant predictors of mortality after T2MI were low body-mass index (BMI) and detectable HIV viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality is high following MI for PWH and substantially greater after T2MI than T1MI. Predictors of death after MI differed by type of MI, reinforcing the different clinical scenarios associated with each MI type and the importance of considering MI types separately.

HIV Viral Suppression Trends Over Time Among HIV-Infected Patients Receiving Care in the United States, 1997 to 2015: A Cohort Study.

Background: Because HIV viral suppression is essential for optimal outcomes and prevention efforts, understanding trends and predictors is imperative to inform public health policy. Objective: To evaluate viral suppression trends in people living with HIV (PLWH), including the relationship of associated factors, such as demographic characteristics and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (ISTI) use. Design: Longitudinal observational cohort study. Setting: 8 HIV clinics across the United States. Participants: PLWH receiving clinical care. Measurements: To understand trends in viral suppression (≤400 copies/mL), annual viral suppression rates from 1997 to 2015 were determined. Analyses were repeated with tests limited to 1 random test per person per year and using inverse probability of censoring weights to address loss to follow-up. Joint longitudinal and survival models and linear mixed models of PLWH receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) were used to examine associations between viral suppression or continuous viral load (VL) levels and demographic factors, substance use, adherence, and ISTI use. Results: Viral suppression increased from 32% in 1997 to 86% in 2015 on the basis of all tests among 31 930 PLWH. In adjusted analyses, being older (odds ratio [OR], 0.76 per decade [95% CI, 0.74 to 0.78]) and using an ISTI-based regimen (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.51 to 0.57]) were associated with lower odds of having a detectable VL, and black race was associated with higher odds (OR, 1.68 [CI, 1.57 to 1.80]) (P < 0.001 for each). Similar patterns were seen with continuous VL levels; when analyses were limited to 2010 to 2015; and with adjustment for adherence, substance use, or depression. Limitation: Results are limited to PLWH receiving clinical care. Conclusion: HIV viral suppression rates have improved dramatically across the United States, which is likely partially attributable to improved ART, including ISTI-based regimens. However, disparities among younger and black PLWH merit attention. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.

Types of Myocardial Infarction Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals in the United States.

Importance: The Second Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) divides MIs into different types. Type 1 MIs result spontaneously from instability of atherosclerotic plaque, whereas type 2 MIs occur in the setting of a mismatch between oxygen demand and supply, as with severe hypotension. Type 2 MIs are uncommon in the general population, but their frequency in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals is unknown. Objectives: To characterize MIs, including type; identify causes of type 2 MIs; and compare demographic and clinical characteristics among HIV-infected individuals with type 1 vs type 2 MIs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal study identified potential MIs among patients with HIV receiving clinical care at 6 US sites from January 1, 1996, to March 1, 2014, using diagnoses and cardiac biomarkers recorded in the centralized data repository. Sites assembled deidentified packets, including physician notes and electrocardiograms, procedures, and clinical laboratory tests. Two physician experts adjudicated each event, categorizing each definite or probable MI as type 1 or type 2 and identifying the causes of type 2 MI. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number and proportion of type 1 vs type 2 MIs, demographic and clinical characteristics among those with type 1 vs type 2 MIs, and the causes of type 2 MIs. Results: Among 571 patients (median age, 49 years [interquartile range, 43-55 years]; 430 men and 141 women) with definite or probable MIs, 288 MIs (50.4%) were type 2 and 283 (49.6%) were type 1. In analyses of type 1 MIs, 79 patients who underwent cardiac interventions, such as coronary artery bypass graft surgery, were also included, totaling 362 patients. Sepsis or bacteremia (100 [34.7%]) and recent use of cocaine or other illicit drugs (39 [13.5%]) were the most common causes of type 2 MIs. A higher proportion of patients with type 2 MIs were younger than 40 years (47 of 288 [16.3%] vs 32 of 362 [8.8%]) and had lower current CD4 cell counts (median, 230 vs 383 cells/µL), lipid levels (mean [SD] total cholesterol level, 167 [63] vs 190 [54] mg/dL, and mean (SD) Framingham risk scores (8% [7%] vs 10% [8%]) than those with type 1 MIs or who underwent cardiac interventions. Conclusions and Relevance: Approximately half of all MIs among HIV-infected individuals were type 2 MIs caused by heterogeneous clinical conditions, including sepsis or bacteremia and recent use of cocaine or other illicit drugs. Demographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors among those with type 1 and type 2 MIs differed, suggesting the need to specifically consider type among HIV-infected individuals to further understand MI outcomes and to guide prevention and treatment.

Co-calibration of two self-reported measures of adherence to antiretroviral therapy.

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an important determinant of clinical success assessed in many HIV studies. Harmonizing adherence data from studies that use different measures is difficult without a co-calibration equation to convert between validated instruments. Our purpose was to co-calibrate two commonly used adherence measures: the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) questionnaire and the Visual Analog Scale (VAS). We used robust linear regression to develop a co-calibration equation in a clinical care cohort. The outcome was the 30-day VAS percentage of ART taken and the predictors were ACTG questions. We evaluated the equation's goodness of fit in five STTR (Seek, Test, Treat, Retain) consortium studies where individuals completed both measures: 2 criminal justice; 2 international; and 1 other high-risk vulnerable population. We developed a three-phase decision rule to convert ACTG to VAS in 1045 participants. First, when the last missed dose on the ACTG was reported as >30 days ago, the VAS was set to 100% (N = 582). Second, if "doses missed" was zero for all items, VAS was 100% (N = 104). Third, among remaining participants (N = 359), VAS was estimated as 96.8% minus 2.9% times the number of missed doses ("doses per day" was non-significant). Correlation between predicted and reported VAS was r = 0.80 in the criminal justice group (N = 446), r = 0.46 in the international group (N = 311), r = 0.32 in the other vulnerable population (N = 63), and r = 0.66 overall. When outliers due to inversion of the VAS scale were excluded (n = 25), these correlations were 0.88, 0.78, 0.80, and 0.86, respectively. We concluded that a simple decision rule and equation allowed us to co-calibrate between two widely used adherence measures thus combining data from studies with different instruments. This study highlighted issues with VAS inversions and its limitations as a single item. Combining studies using different instrument facilitates larger pooled datasets to address key research questions.

HDL cholesterol and stroke risk: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Accurate identification of risk factors for stroke is important for public health promotion and disease prevention. HDL cholesterol is a potential risk factor, yet its role in stroke risk is unclear, as is whether HDL cholesterol content or particle number might be a better indicator of stroke risk. Furthermore, the degree to which ethnicity moderates the risk is unknown. As such, the current study examines the associations between incident stroke and both HDL cholesterol concentration and particle number, and assesses the moderating role of race and ethnicity. METHODS: The sample is a racially diverse cohort of US adults between the ages of 45-84 years enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis between 2000 and 2002 and followed until December 2011. The associations among cholesterol content and stroke risk, particle number and stroke risk, and the interaction with race were explored. RESULTS: The incidence of stroke was 2.6%. HDL cholesterol concentration (mmol/L) (Hazard Ratio (HR) = .56; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): .312-.988) and number of large HDL particles (µmol/L) (HR = .52, CI: .278-.956) were associated with lower stroke risk. When interactions with race were evaluated, the relationship between both HDL variables and stroke were significant in Blacks, but not other races. CONCLUSIONS: Higher HDL cholesterol and a higher concentration of large particles are associated with lower risk of stroke in Blacks. Further research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms by which HDL subfractions may differentially affect stroke outcome in different races/ethnicities.

Fructosamine and Hemoglobin A1c Correlations in HIV-Infected Adults in Routine Clinical Care: Impact of Anemia and Albumin Levels.

Fructosamine is an alternative method to hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) for determining average glycemia. However, its use has not been extensively evaluated in persons living with HIV (PLWH). We examined the relationship between HbA1c and fructosamine values, specifically focusing on anemia (which can affect HbA1c) and albumin as a marker of liver disease. We included 345 PLWH from two sites. We examined Spearman rank correlations between fructosamine and HbA1c and performed linear test for trends to compare fructosamine and HbA1c correlations by hemoglobin and albumin quartiles. We examined discrepant individuals with values elevated only on one test. We found a correlation of 0.70 between fructosamine and HbA1c levels. Trend tests for correlations between fructosamine and HbA1c were significant for both albumin (p = 0.05) and hemoglobin (p = 0.01) with the lowest correlations in the lowest hemoglobin quartile. We identified participants with unremarkable HbA1c values but elevated fructosamine values. These discrepant individuals had lower mean hemoglobin levels than those elevated by both tests. We demonstrated a large correlation between HbA1c and fructosamine across a range of hemoglobin and albumin levels. There were discrepant cases particularly among those with lower hemoglobin levels. Future studies are needed to clarify the use of fructosamine for diabetes management in PWLH.

Gastro-intestinal haemorrhage risks of selective serotonin receptor antagonist therapy: a new look.

AIMS: (i) To determine the effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and other classes of antidepressants on upper gastro-intestinal (GI) haemorrhage and (ii) to assess the drug-drug interaction effects of antidepressants and warfarin or clopidogrel on the risk of GI haemorrhage. METHODS: This was a population-based case control study in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD). Cases with a first episode of upper GI haemorrhage between 2000 and 2005 were matched with up to 10 controls. Exposure to the study drugs was defined by a prescription issued in the 90 days before the index date. Rate ratios were estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Four thousand and twenty-eight cases of GI haemorrhage and 40 171 controls were identified. The excess risk of GI haemorrhage with SSRI use was small (Rate Ratio [RR]: 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.1, 1.6) and null with exposure to tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) (RR 1.0; 95% CI: 0.8, 1.3). The risk of GI haemorrhage was highest with venlafaxine use (RR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.6). There was no drug-drug interaction between warfarin anticoagulation and antidepressant use. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports a small increased risk of upper GI haemorrhage with the use of SSRI antidepressants compared with the older TCA drugs, but to a lesser extent than previously reported due to confounding by alcohol use. The small elevation in risk of GI haemorrhage with SSRI and venlafaxine should be weighed against the therapeutic benefit of their use.

Mortality after infection with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) diagnosed in the community.

BACKGROUND: Outbreak reports suggest that community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections can be life-threatening. We conducted a population based cohort study to assess the magnitude of mortality associated with MRSA infections diagnosed in the community. METHODS: We used the United Kingdom's General Practice Research Database (GPRD) to form a cohort of all patients with MRSA diagnosed in the community from 2001 through 2004 and up to ten patients without an MRSA diagnosis. The latter were frequency-matched with the MRSA patients on age, GPRD practice and diagnosis date. All patients were older than 18 years, had no hospitalization in the 2 years prior to cohort entry and medical history information of at least 2 years prior to cohort entry. The cohort was followed up for 1 year and all deaths and hospitalizations were identified. Hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for patient characteristics. RESULTS: The cohort included 1439 patients diagnosed with MRSA and 14,090 patients with no MRSA diagnosis. Mean age at cohort entry was 70 years in both groups, while co-morbid conditions were more prevalent in the patients with MRSA. Within 1 year, 21.8% of MRSA patients died as compared with 5.0% of non-MRSA patients. The risk of death was increased in patients diagnosed with MRSA in the community (adjusted hazard ratio 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 3.5-4.7). CONCLUSION: MRSA infections diagnosed in the community are associated with significant mortality in the year after diagnosis.

Antimicrobial drugs and community-acquired Clostridium difficile-associated disease, UK.

In a population-based case-control study of community acquired Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD), we matched 1,233 cases to 12,330 controls. CDAD risk increased 3-fold with use of any antimicrobial agent and 6-fold with use of fluoroquinolones. Prior use of antimicrobial agents did not affect risk for CDAD after 6 months.

The impact of over-the-counter simvastatin on the number of statin prescriptions in the United Kingdom: a view from the General Practice Research Database.

PURPOSE: The United Kingdom (UK) government changed the prescription policy of statins, making low-dose simvastatin (10 mg) available as an over-the-counter (OTC) drug in August 2004. We assessed the impact of this policy change on statin prescribing. METHODS: We examined all statin prescriptions in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), a well-validated database of approximately 3.5 million patients, from the first quarter of 2001 to the second quarter of 2005. RESULTS: From 2001, the number of statin prescriptions written for GPRD patients was increasing by approximately 437 prescriptions per 100,000 people per quarter until the time of the policy change. Over the four quarters post-policy implementation, however, this trend changed abruptly (p < 0.0001) with a decrease of 281 prescriptions per 100,000 people per quarter. This decrease was not restricted to prescriptions of 10 mg statins but was also observed for statin prescriptions of >or=20 mg. Several other cardiovascular medications displayed a similar trend as that observed in the number of statin prescriptions. This trend was not observed among non-cardiovascular control medications. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the policy allowing the OTC sale of 10 mg simvastatin has had a significant impact on statin prescriptions by general practitioners. However, this new policy may also be leading to less aggressive statin therapy. An alternative explanation for the observed decrease in statin prescriptions may be related to the unknown factors responsible for the overall decrease observed with other cardiovascular prescription drugs.

Proton pump inhibitor use and risk of community-acquired Clostridium difficile-associated disease defined by prescription for oral vancomycin therapy.

BACKGROUND: The association between the use of proton pump inhibitors and the risk of Clostridium difficile-associated disease (CDAD) is controversial. In this study we re-examined a previously reported association between the use of proton pump inhibitors and the development of community-acquired CDAD, this time using an alternative case definition of the disease. METHODS: We performed a case-control study of community-acquired CDAD using a United Kingdom clinical research database. Patients receiving oral vancomycin therapy were identified as having CDAD, the only indication for this drug. Each case subject was matched with up to 10 control subjects. Neither the cases nor the controls had been admitted to hospital in the year before the date of the vancomycin prescription (index date). Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for key covariates. RESULTS: We identified 317 cases of community-acquired CDAD treated with oral vancomycin therapy and 3167 matched control subjects. Exposure to a proton pump inhibitor in the 90 days before the index date was associated with an increased risk of CDAD (odds ratio [OR] 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-5.2). Antibiotic exposure in the 90 days before the index date was also a significant risk factor for community-acquired CDAD (OR 8.2, 95% CI 6.1- 11.0), even though 45% of the case subjects had not received a prescription for an antibiotic during that period. Certain comorbidities, in particular renal failure, inflammatory bowel disease and malignant disease, as well as prior methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection, were also associated with an increased risk. INTERPRETATION: Proton pump inhibitor use was associated with an increased risk of community-acquired CDAD, when cases were defined by receipt of prescription for oral vancomycin therapy. Prior antibiotic exposure was also a significant risk factor, but a significant proportion of the patients with community-acquired CDAD had no such exposure.

Warfarin use and the risk of motor vehicle crash in older drivers.

AIM: On the basis of a recent report, we assessed whether the use of warfarin by elderly drivers results in an increased risk of motor vehicle crash. METHODS: We used computerized records of Quebec insurance programmes, covering a population of 7 million people, to conduct a case-control study based on 5,579 cases and 12,911 controls. RESULTS: The rate of injurious motor vehicle crash associated with the use of warfarin in the past year was not elevated (rate ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.55, 1.05). CONCLUSIONS: Warfarin therapy does not appear to increase the risk of motor vehicle accidents in elderly drivers.