Analysis of COVID-19 pandemic in USA, using Topological Weighted Centroid.

The first case of COVID-19 in USA was reported on January 20, 2020. The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and death has increased since the first reported case and the outbreak has appeared in all states. This paper analyzes disease outbreak using Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC), which is a data driven intelligent geographical dynamical system that models disease spread in space and time. In this analysis the COVID-19 cases in USA on March 26, 2020 as provided by Johns Hopkins University is used. The COVID-19 outbreak is mapped by the TWC method. We were able to predict and capture some features of the pandemic spread using the early data. Although we have used the geographical distance from the latitude and longitude coordinates, our results indicate that one of the main paths of diseases spread are arguably airline routes. In this analysis, we used a large set of data. A modified version of TWC, is named TWC-Windowing to elaborate the effect of data from all places.

COVID-19 in Italy and extreme data mining.

In this article we want to show the potential of an evolutionary algorithm called Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC). This algorithm can obtain new and relevant information from extremely limited and poor datasets. In a world dominated by the concept of big (fat?) data we want to show that it is possible, by necessity or choice, to work profitably even on small data. This peculiarity of the algorithm means that even in the early stages of an epidemic process, when the data are too few to have sufficient statistics, it is possible to obtain important information. To prove our theory, we addressed one of the most central issues at the moment: the COVID-19 epidemic. In particular, the cases recorded in Italy have been selected. Italy seems to have a central role in this epidemic because of the high number of measured infections. Through this innovative artificial intelligence algorithm, we have tried to analyze the evolution of the phenomenon and to predict its future steps using a dataset that contained only geospatial coordinates (longitude and latitude) of the first recorded cases. Once the coordinates of the places where at least one case of contagion had been officially diagnosed until February 26th, 2020 had been collected, research and analysis was carried out on: outbreak point and related heat map (TWC alpha); probability distribution of the contagion on February 26th (TWC beta); possible spread of the phenomenon in the immediate future and then in the future of the future (TWC gamma and TWC theta); how this passage occurred in terms of paths and mutual influence (Theta paths and Markov Machine). Finally, a heat map of the possible situation towards the end of the epidemic in terms of infectiousness of the areas was drawn up. The analyses with TWC confirm the assumptions made at the beginning.

Computer Aided Diagnosis for atrial fibrillation based on new artificial adaptive systems.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia in clinical practice, having been recognized as a true cardiovascular epidemic. In this paper, a new methodology for Computer Aided Diagnosis of AF based on a special kind of artificial adaptive systems has been developed. METHODS: Following the extraction of data from the PhysioNet repository, a new dataset composed of the R/R distances of 73 patients was created. To avoid redundancy, the training set was created by randomly selecting 50% of the subjects from the entire sample, thus making a choice by patient and not by record. The remaining 50% of subjects were randomly split by records in testing and prediction sets. The original ECG data has been transformed according to the following four orders of abstraction: a) sequence of R/R intervals; b) composition of ECG data into a moving window; c) training of different machine learning systems to abstract the function governing the AF; d) fuzzy transformation of Machine learning estimations. In this paper, in parallel with the classic method of windowing, we propose a variant based on a system of progressive moving averages. RESULTS: The best performing machine learning, Supervised Contractive Map (SVCm), reached an overall mean accuracy of 95%. SVCm is a new deep neural network based on a different principle than the usual descending gradient. The minimization of the error occurs by means of decomposition into contracted sine functions. CONCLUSIONS: In this research, atrial fibrillation is considered from a completely different point of view than classical methods. It is seen as the stable process, i.e. the function, that manages the irregularity of the irregularities of the R/R intervals. The idea, therefore, is to abstract from mere physiology to investigate fibrillation as a mathematical object that handles irregularities. The attained results seem to open new perspectives for the use of potent artificial adaptive systems for the automatic detection of atrial fibrillation, with accuracy rates extremely promising for real world applications.

The "MS-ROM/IFAST" Model, a Novel Parallel Nonlinear EEG Analysis Technique, Distinguishes ASD Subjects From Children Affected With Other Neuropsychiatric Disorders With High Degree of Accuracy.

Background and Objective. In a previous study, we showed a new EEG processing methodology called Multi-Scale Ranked Organizing Map/Implicit Function As Squashing Time (MS-ROM/IFAST) performing an almost perfect distinction between computerized EEG of Italian children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing children. In this study, we assessed this system in distinguishing ASD subjects from children affected with other neuropsychiatric disorders (NPD). Methods. At a psychiatric practice in Texas, 20 children diagnosed with ASD and 20 children diagnosed with NPD were entered into the study. Continuous segments of artifact-free EEG data lasting 10 minutes were entered in MS-ROM/IFAST. From the new variables created by MS-ROM/IFAST, only 12 has been selected according to a correlation criterion. The selected features represent the input on which supervised machine learning systems (MLS) acted as blind classifiers. Results. The overall predictive capability in distinguishing ASD from other NPD cases ranged from 93% to 97.5%. The results were confirmed in further experiments in which Italian and US data have been combined. In this analysis, the best MLS reached 95.0% global accuracy in 1 out of 3 classes distinction (ASD, NPD, controls). This study demonstrates the value of EEG processing with advanced MLS in the differential diagnosis between ASD and NPD cases. The results were not affected by age, ethnicity and technicalities of EEG acquisition, confirming the existence of a specific EEG signature in ASD cases. To further support these findings, it was decided to test the behavior of already trained neural networks on 10 Italian very young ASD children (25-37 months). In this test, 9 out of 10 cases have been correctly recognized as ASD subjects in the best case. Conclusions. These results confirm the possibility of an early automatic autism detection based on standard EEG.

Theory of impossible worlds: Toward a physics of information.

In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach to the fusion between datasets in terms of attributes and observations, even when they are not related at all. With our technique, starting from datasets representing independent worlds, it is possible to analyze a single global dataset, and transferring each dataset onto the others is always possible. This procedure allows a deeper perspective in the study of a problem, by offering the chance of looking into it from other, independent points of view. Even unrelated datasets create a metaphoric representation of the problem, useful in terms of speed of convergence and predictive results, preserving the fundamental relationships in the data. In order to extract such knowledge, we propose a new learning rule named double backpropagation, by which an auto-encoder concurrently codifies all the different worlds. We test our methodology on different datasets and different issues, to underline the power and flexibility of the Theory of Impossible Worlds.