Location-scale mixed models and goodness-of-fit assessment applied to insect ecology.

Survival models have been extensively used to analyse time-until-event data. There is a range of extended models that incorporate different aspects, such as overdispersion/frailty, mixtures, and flexible response functions through semi-parametric models. In this work, we show how a useful tool to assess goodness-of-fit, the half-normal plot of residuals with a simulated envelope, implemented in the hnp package in R, can be used on a location-scale modelling context. We fitted a range of survival models to time-until-event data, where the event was an insect predator attacking a larva in a biological control experiment. We started with the Weibull model and then fitted the exponentiated-Weibull location-scale model with regressors both for the location and scale parameters. We performed variable selection for each model and, by producing half-normal plots with simulated envelopes for the deviance residuals of the model fits, we found that the exponentiated-Weibull fitted the data better. We then included a random effect in the exponentiated-Weibull model to accommodate correlated observations. Finally, we discuss possible implications of the results found in the case study.

Selection of an Artificial Diet for Laboratory Rearing of Opogona sacchari (Lepidoptera: Tineidae) (Bojer, 1856).

The banana moth Opogona sacchari (Bojer) (Lepidoptera: Tineidae) is a polyphagous pest that can cause serious damage, in particular to banana crops in southern Brazil. The insect is a quarantine pest in several countries, including Argentina, the main consumer market for bananas from southern Brazil. Little information is available about the biology and ecology of this moth, such as a suitable diet for laboratory rearing. In order to provide support for integrated pest management of the pest, this study furnished data for selecting two diets suitable for continuous laboratory rearing of O. sacchari, one based on dried beans, wheat germ, soy bran, brewer's yeast, and casein and another diet with wheat germ and casein as protein sources. With both diets, the viability of the egg-adult period exceeded 68%, with fertility over 338 eggs per female. A corrected biotic potential analysis gave similar values for the two diets.

Acute Toxicity of Fresh and Aged Residues of Pesticides to the Parasitoid Tamarixia radiata and to the HLB-Bacteria Vector Diaphorina citri.

One method for controlling the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP) Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, the vector of the putative causal agent of Huanglongbing, uses the parasitoid Tamarixia radiata (Waterston). However, the general intensive use of insecticides has reduced the numbers of this parasitoid. This study evaluated the effect of the residual action of 24 insecticides on T. radiata and also determined the differential toxicity of insecticides to D. citri and T. radiata, using three bioassays. In the first, when adults of the parasitoid were exposed to residues of the 24 insecticides, ten were considered short-life (class 1), six slightly persistent (class 2), five moderately persistent (class 3), and three insecticides were considered persistent (class 4), under the IOBC/WPRS classification system. The second bioassay evaluated the sublethal concentrations of the persistent insecticides (formetanate, dimethoate, spinosad). Increasing the concentrations of the insecticides increased the number that were classified as persistent. In the third bioassay, evaluation of the differential toxicity of eight insecticides to the ACP and the parasitoid showed that chlorpyrifos and bifenthrin were more harmful to T. radiata. Therefore, these two insecticides are not recommended for application at the time of parasitoid release. Cypermethrin, imidacloprid, and dimethoate caused higher mortality of D. citri and are most often recommended in IPM programs. The choice of an insecticide for the control of citrus pests must be made with care, aiming to preserve the natural enemies in the ecosystem, and thereby contribute to the success of biological control.

Inferences of body energy reserves on conception rate of suckled Zebu beef cows subjected to timed artificial insemination followed by natural mating.

The influence of body condition score (BCS), rump fat thickness (RFAT), and live weight (LW), and the changes in these parameters during the interval from 165 of prepartum (i.e., 125 days of prior gestation) to 112 postpartum on first service conception and pregnancy rates were investigated in suckled Zebu (Bos indicus) beef cows (n = 266) subjected to timed artificial insemination (TAI) followed by natural mating. The aforementioned parameters were recorded at 165 ± 14 days (mean ± standard error) prepartum (concurrent with the weaning of previous calf), at parturition, and at 42 ± 7 days (at the onset of the synchronization of ovulation protocol), 82 ± 7 days (30 days after TAI), and 112 ± 7 days (60 days after TAI) postpartum. At the start of the breeding season (BS), cows were subjected to a synchronization of ovulation program for TAI. Bulls were placed with cows 10 days after TAI and remained until the end of the study (112 days postpartum). Cows with the highest BCS at parturition had an increased probability of first service conception rate at 60 days after TAI (P = 0.02) and a reduced probability of occurrence of pregnancy loss (P = 0.05). Also, cows had a greater likelihood of conceiving postpartum if they had greater RFAT and BCS at 165 ± 14 days prepartum (P = 0.01 and P = 0.03, respectively) and at parturition (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003, respectively). Cows that had an increase in RFAT and BCS during the dry period (i.e., interval from weaning of the previous calf to parturition) also had a greater likelihood of conceiving (P = 0.03 and P = 0.06, respectively) during the BS. Among the different time points, RFAT and BCS at parturition had the largest impact on risk of conception during the BS. The LW was a poor predictor of conception during the BS (P = 0.11-0.68) except for LW at 165 ± 14 days prepartum (P = 0.01). Collectively, the findings indicated that the likelihood of conception during the BS was highest in cows that had an improvement in RFAT and BCS during the dry period. Therefore, assuring a good nutritional status in the dry period (BCS ≥ 3.0 at 165 ± 14 days prepartum and ≥3.25 at parturition) is an important aim to optimize the postpartum conception rate of suckled Zebu beef cows subjected to TAI followed by natural mating.

Presidential Address: XXVI International Biometric Conference, Kobe, Japan, August 2012 education in developing countries--the role of IBS.

Here we discuss the building of statistical knowledge, mainly in developing countries. We highlight some words from Past IBS Presidents and IBS actions that show the role of IBS in education with an emphasis on developing countries. Some examples show that international exchanges are a well-known way of improving the quality of teaching, learning and research and stress the point that individual initiatives are very important (and fruitful) for education, but we should encourage some more general actions.

Factors affecting conception rates following artificial insemination or embryo transfer in lactating Holstein cows.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the factors that may affect conception rates (CR) following artificial insemination (AI) or embryo transfer (ET) in lactating Holstein cows. Estrous cycling cows producing 33.1 +/- 7.2 kg of milk/d received PGF2alpha injections and were assigned randomly to 1 of 2 groups (AI or ET). Cows detected in estrus (n = 387) between 48 and 96 h after the PGF2alpha injection received AI (n = 227) 12 h after detection of estrus or ET (n = 160) 6 to 8 d later (1 fresh embryo, grade 1 or 2, produced from nonlactating cows). Pregnancy was diagnosed at 28 and 42 d after estrus, and embryonic loss occurred when a cow was pregnant on d 28 but not pregnant on d 42. Ovulation, conception, and embryonic loss were analyzed by a logistic model to evaluate the effects of covariates [days in milk (DIM), milk yield, body temperature (BT) at d 7 and 14 post-AI, and serum concentration of progesterone (P4) at d 7 and 14 post-AI] on the probability of success. The first analysis included all cows that were detected in estrus. The CR of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 32.6% vs. ET, 49.4%) and 42 (AI, 29.1% vs. ET, 38.8%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7) and DIM. The second analysis included only cows with a corpus luteum on d 7. Ovulation rate was 84.8% and was only negatively affected by DIM. Conception rates of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 37.9% vs. ET, 59.4%) and 42 (AI, 33.8% vs. ET, 46.6%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7). The third analysis included only ovulating cows that were 7 d postestrus. Conception rates of AI and ET were different on d 28 (AI, 37.5% vs. ET, 63.2%) and 42 (AI, 31.7% vs. ET, 51.7%) and were negatively influenced by high BT (d 7). There was a positive effect of serum concentration of P4 and a negative effect of milk production on the probability of conception for the AI group but not for the ET group. The fourth analysis was embryonic loss (AI, 10.8% vs. ET, 21.5%). The transfer of fresh embryos is an important tool to increase the probability of conception of lactating Holstein cows because it can bypass the negative effects of milk production and low P4 on the early embryo. The superiority of ET vs. AI is more evident in high-producing cows. High BT measured on d 7 had a negative effect on CR and embryonic retention.

A score test for testing a zero-inflated Poisson regression model against zero-inflated negative binomial alternatives.

Count data often show a higher incidence of zero counts than would be expected if the data were Poisson distributed. Zero-inflated Poisson regression models are a useful class of models for such data, but parameter estimates may be seriously biased if the nonzero counts are overdispersed in relation to the Poisson distribution. We therefore provide a score test for testing zero-inflated Poisson regression models against zero-inflated negative binomial alternatives.

Tests of proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data.

In this paper, we derive score test statistics to discriminate between proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data. These models are embedded within a power family transformation in order to obtain the score tests. In simple cases, some small-sample results are obtained for the score statistics using Monte Carlo simulations. Score statistics have distributions well approximated by the chi-squared distribution. Real examples illustrate the proposed tests.

Acute toxicity (LD50 and CD50) of lidocaine and prilocaine in combination with adrenaline and felypressin.

The toxicity of the combination of vasoconstrictors to local anaesthetic solutions has been debated since its first use in the beginning of this century. A combination of two vasoconstrictors to a local anaesthetic has been proposed by some researchers. In this study they were evaluated the acute toxicity (lethal dose 50%, convulsion dose 50%) and latency times of loss of righting reflex and convulsion as well as the duration of convulsion) of 2% lidocaine or 3% prilocaine, when administered in combination with adrenaline and felypressin at various concentrations. Lethal dose 50% studies showed that for both anaesthetics the solutions with higher concentrations of adrenaline were more toxic. The opposite was observed in the convulsion dose 50% studies. No alterations were observed in the control groups. All lidocaine solutions increased the latency of loss of righting reflex. The latency of convulsion was increased in some groups, but once the convulsion was achieved there was no difference in its duration. There was no statistical difference among prilocaine groups for any of the variables studied. Based on the experimental model studied, it was concluded that there is no advantage in the association of two vasoconstrictors concerning the toxicity of lidocaine and prilocaine solutions.

Estimating intraclass correlation for binary data.

This paper reviews many different estimators of intraclass correlation that have been proposed for binary data and compares them in an extensive simulation study. Some of the estimators are very specific, while others result from general methods such as pseudo-likelihood and extended quasi-likelihood estimation. The simulation study identifies several useful estimators, one of which does not seem to have been considered previously for binary data. Estimators based on extended quasi-likelihood are found to have a substantial bias in some circumstances.