On sparse ensemble methods: An application to short-term predictions of the evolution of COVID-19.

Since the seminal paper by Bates and Granger in 1969, a vast number of ensemble methods that combine different base regressors to generate a unique one have been proposed in the literature. The so-obtained regressor method may have better accuracy than its components, but at the same time it may overfit, it may be distorted by base regressors with low accuracy, and it may be too complex to understand and explain. This paper proposes and studies a novel Mathematical Optimization model to build a sparse ensemble, which trades off the accuracy of the ensemble and the number of base regressors used. The latter is controlled by means of a regularization term that penalizes regressors with a poor individual performance. Our approach is flexible to incorporate desirable properties one may have on the ensemble, such as controlling the performance of the ensemble in critical groups of records, or the costs associated with the base regressors involved in the ensemble. We illustrate our approach with real data sets arising in the COVID-19 context.

Diets and trophic niches of the main commercial fish species from the Celtic Sea.

The characterization and quantification of diets of nine commercially important Celtic Sea fish species (black-bellied angler Lophius budegassa, blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou, Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus, European hake Merluccius merluccius, megrim Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis, European plaice Pleuronectes platessa, common sole Solea solea and whiting Merlangius merlangus) was undertaken November 2014 and November 2015 to gain a better understanding of fish feeding strategies, prey preferences, competition for resources and, more generally, increases knowledge of marine ecosystem functioning. Prey were classified into 39 taxonomic groups. A feeding overlap index and multivariate analyses were used to classify the fishes into four main trophic groups where interspecific competition for resources may be important: piscivorous species, omnivorous species, planktivorous species and invertebrate benthic feeders. Ontogenetic changes in diet were also considered for L. budegassa, G. morhua, M. aeglefinus, M. merluccius and M. merlangus through partitioning into size classes. This revealed an important shift in the diet of M. merluccius from omnivory to piscivory, whereas M. aeglefinus exhibited no significant ontogenetic change in diet, remaining an invertebrate benthic feeder. Feeding strategies of these species were also investigated using the Shannon niche-breadth index and other descriptors, such as the total number of taxonomic groups of prey and the mean number of prey in gut contents.