RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Development of distant metastasis (DM) is a major concern during treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, studies have demonstrated improved distant control and survival in patients with advanced NPC with the addition of chemotherapy to concomitant chemoradiotherapy. Therefore, precise prediction of metastasis in patients with NPC is crucial. AIM: To develop a predictive model for metastasis in NPC using detailed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reports. METHODS: This retrospective study included 792 patients with non-distant metastatic NPC. A total of 469 imaging variables were obtained from detailed MRI reports. Data were stratified and randomly split into training (50%) and testing sets. Gradient boosting tree (GBT) models were built and used to select variables for predicting DM. A full model comprising all variables and a reduced model with the top-five variables were built. Model performance was assessed by area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among the 792 patients, 94 developed DM during follow-up. The number of metastatic cervical nodes (30.9%), tumor invasion in the posterior half of the nasal cavity (9.7%), two sides of the pharyngeal recess (6.2%), tubal torus (3.3%), and single side of the parapharyngeal space (2.7%) were the top-five contributors for predicting DM, based on their relative importance in GBT models. The testing AUC of the full model was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.82). The testing AUC of the reduced model was 0.75 (95%CI: 0.68-0.82). For the whole dataset, the full (AUC = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.72-0.82) and reduced models (AUC = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.71-0.81) outperformed the tumor node-staging system (AUC = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.61-0.73). CONCLUSION: The GBT model outperformed the tumor node-staging system in predicting metastasis in NPC. The number of metastatic cervical nodes was identified as the principal contributing variable.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Feeding intolerance in patients with sepsis is associated with a lower enteral nutrition (EN) intake and worse clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model for enteral feeding intolerance in the intensive care unit patients with sepsis. METHODS: In this dual-center, retrospective, case-control study, a total of 195 intensive care unit patients with sepsis were enrolled from June 2018 to June 2020. Data of 124 patients for 27 clinical indicators from one hospital were used to train the model, and data from 71 patients from another hospital were used to assess the external predictive performance. The predictive models included logistic regression, naive Bayesian, random forest, gradient boosting tree, and deep learning (multilayer artificial neural network) models. RESULTS: Eighty-six (44.1%) patients were diagnosed with enteral feeding intolerance. The deep learning model achieved the best performance, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82 (95% confidence interval = 0.74-0.90) and 0.79 (95% confidence interval = 0.68-0.89) in the training and external sets, respectively. The deep learning model showed good calibration; based on the decision curve analysis, the model's clinical benefit was considered useful. Lower respiratory tract infection was the most important contributing factor, followed by peptide EN and shock. CONCLUSIONS: The new prediction model based on deep learning can effectively predict enteral feeding intolerance in intensive care unit patients with sepsis. Simple clinical information such as infection site, nutrient type, and septic shock can be useful in stratifying a septic patient's risk of EN intolerance.