Coronary plaque volume and predictors for fast plaque progression assessed by serial coronary CT angiography-A single-center observational study.

PURPOSE: The rationale of this study was to identify patients with fast progression of coronary plaque volume PV and characterize changes in PV and plaque components over time. METHOD: Total PV (TPV) was measured in 350 patients undergoing serial coronary computed tomography angiography (median scan interval 3.6 years) using semi-automated software. Plaque morphology was assessed based on attenuation values and stratified into calcified, fibrous, fibrous-fatty and low-attenuation PV for volumetric measurements. Every plaque was additionally classified as either calcified, partially calcified or non-calcified. RESULTS: In total, 812 and 955 plaques were detected in the first and second scan. Mean TPV increase was 20 % on a per-patient base (51.3 mm³ [interquartile range (IQR): 14.4, 126.7] vs. 61.6 mm³ [IQR: 16.7, 170.0]). TPV increase was driven by calcified PV (first scan: 7.6 mm³ [IQR: 0.2, 33.6] vs. second scan: 16.6 mm³ [IQR: 1.8, 62.1], p < 0.01). Forty-two patients showed fast progression of TPV, defined as >1.3 mm3 increase of TPV per month. Male sex (odds ratio 3.1, p = 0.02) and typical angina (odds ratio 3.95, p = 0.03) were identified as risk factors for fast TPV progression, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol had a protective effect (odds ratio per 10 mg/dl increase of HDL cholesterol: 0.72, p < 0.01). Progression to >50 % stenosis at follow-up was observed in 34 of 327 (10.4 %) calcified plaques, in 13 of 401 (3.2 %) partially calcified plaques and 2 of 221 (0.9 %) non-calcified plaques (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Fast plaque progression was observed in male patients and patients with typical angina. High HDL cholesterol showed a protective effect.

Quantification of coronary low-attenuation plaque volume for long-term prediction of cardiac events and reclassification of patients.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the incremental prognostic value of low-attenuation plaque volume (LAPV) from coronary CT angiography datasets. METHODS: Quantification of LAPV was performed using dedicated software equipped with an adaptive plaque tissue algorithm in 1577 patients with suspected CAD. A combination of death and acute coronary syndrome was defined as primary endpoint. To assess the incremental prognostic value of LAPV, parameters were added to a baseline model including clinical risk and obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), a baseline model including clinical risk and calcium scoring (CACS) and a baseline model including clinical risk and segment involvement score (SIS). RESULTS: Patients were followed for 5.5 years either by telephone contact, mail or clinical visits. The primary endpoint occurred in 30 patients. Quantified LAPV provided incremental prognostic information beyond clinical risk and obstructive CAD (c-index 0.701 vs. 0.767, p < .001), clinical risk and CACS (c-index 0.722 vs. 0.771, p < .01) and clinical risk and SIS (c-index 0.735 vs. 0.771, p < .01. A combined approach using quantified LAPV and clinical risk significantly improved the stratification of patients into different risk categories compared to clinical risk alone (categorical net reclassification index 0.69 with 95% CI 0.27 and 0.96, p < .001). The combined approach classified 846 (53.6%) patients as low risk (annual event rate 0.04%), 439 (27.8%) patients as intermediate risk (annual event rate 0.5%) and 292 (18.5%) patients as high risk (annual event rate 0.99%). CONCLUSION: Quantification of LAPV provides incremental prognostic information beyond established CT risk patterns and permits improved stratification of patients into different risk categories.