Evaluating the performance of Bayesian geostatistical prediction with physical barriers in the Chesapeake Bay.

The Chesapeake Bay is one of the most widely studied bodies of water in the United States and around the world. Routine monitoring of water quality indicators (e.g., salinity) relies on fixed sampling stations throughout the Bay. Utilizing this rich monitoring data, various methods produce surface predictions of water quality indicators to further characterize the health of the Bay as well as to support wildlife and human health research studies. Bayesian approaches for geostatistical modelling are becoming increasingly popular and can be preferred over frequentist approaches because full and exact inference can be computed, along with more accurate characterization of uncertainty. Traditional geostatistical prediction methods assume a Euclidean distance between two points when characterizing spatial dependence as a function of distance. However, Euclidean approaches may not be appropriate in estuarine environments when water-land boundaries are crossed during the modelling process. In this study, we compare stationary and barrier INLA geostatistical models with a classic kriging geostatistical model to predict salinity in the Chesapeake Bay during 4 months in 2019. Cross-validation is conducted for each approach to evaluate model performance based on prediction accuracy and precision. The results provide evidence that the two Bayesian-based models outperformed ordinary kriging, especially when examining prediction accuracy (most notably in the tributaries). We also suggest that the non-Euclidean model accounts for the appropriate water-based distances between sampling locations and is likely better at characterizing the uncertainty. However, more complex bodies of water may better showcase the capabilities and efficacy of the physical barrier INLA model.

Detecting space-time clusters of COVID-19 in Brazil: mortality, inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability, and the relative risk of the disease in Brazilian municipalities.

The first case of COVID-19 in South America occurred in Brazil on February 25, 2020. By July 20, 2020, there were 2,118,646 confirmed cases and 80,120 confirmed deaths. To assist with the development of preventive measures and targeted interventions to combat the pandemic in Brazil, we present a geographic study to detect "active" and "emerging" space-time clusters of COVID-19. We document the relationship between relative risk of COVID-19 and mortality, inequality, socioeconomic vulnerability variables. We used the prospective space-time scan statistic to detect daily COVID-19 clusters and examine the relative risk between February 25-June 7, 2020, and February 25-July 20, 2020, in 5570 Brazilian municipalities. We apply a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) to assess whether mortality rate, GINI index, and social inequality are predictors for the relative risk of each cluster. We detected 7 "active" clusters in the first time period, being one in the north, two in the northeast, two in the southeast, one in the south, and one in the capital of Brazil. In the second period, we found 9 clusters with RR > 1 located in all Brazilian regions. The results obtained through the GLM showed that there is a significant positive correlation between the predictor variables in relation to the relative risk of COVID-19. Given the presence of spatial autocorrelation in the GLM residuals, a spatial lag model was conducted that revealed that spatial effects, and both GINI index and mortality rate were strong predictors in the increase in COVID-19 relative risk in Brazil. Our research can be utilized to improve COVID-19 response and planning in all Brazilian states. The results from this study are particularly salient to public health, as they can guide targeted intervention measures, lowering the magnitude and spread of COVID-19. They can also improve resource allocation such as tests and vaccines (when available) by informing key public health officials about the highest risk areas of COVID-19.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices regarding dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Cali, Colombia.

Dengue fever (DENF), chikungunya (CHIK), and Zika are responsible for the majority of the burden caused by vector-borne diseases (VBDs); which are produced by viruses primarily transmitted by the Aedes mosquito. Aedes have become prolific in urban areas due to a combination of climate change, rapid urbanization, increased human mobility, and globalization, causing the three VBDs to emerge in novel regions. Community knowledge can provide detailed insights about the spatial heterogeneity of disease risk and rates within a particular region, improving public health interventions. Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice (KAP) surveys are used to shed light on at-risk communities' understanding of the vector, the pathogen, prevention and treatment strategies. Little is known how KAP varies among diseases, and among neighborhoods within a city. Understanding KAP variation among co-circulating VBDs at a fine-level, especially differences between endemic and emerging diseases, can improve targeted interventions, education programs, and health policy. We administered KAP surveys to 327 individuals in healthcare centers and selected neighborhoods in Cali, Colombia in June 2019. We utilized generalized linear models (GLMs) to identify significant predictors of KAP. Our findings suggest that knowledge is related to community characteristics (e.g. strata), while attitudes and practices are more related to individual-level factors. Access to healthcare also forms significant predictor of residents participating in preventative practices. The results can be leveraged to inform public health officials and communities to motivate at-risk neighborhoods to take an active role in vector surveillance and control, while improving educational and surveillance resources in Cali, Colombia.

Rapid surveillance of COVID-19 in the United States using a prospective space-time scan statistic: Detecting and evaluating emerging clusters.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is a pandemic with an estimated death rate between 1% and 5%; and an estimated R 0 between 2.2 and 6.7 according to various sources. As of March 28th, 2020, there were over 649,000 confirmed cases and 30,249 total deaths, globally. In the United States, there were over 115,500 cases and 1891 deaths and this number is likely to increase rapidly. It is critical to detect clusters of COVID-19 to better allocate resources and improve decision-making as the outbreaks continue to grow. Using daily case data at the county level provided by Johns Hopkins University, we conducted a prospective spatial-temporal analysis with SaTScan. We detect statistically significant space-time clusters of COVID-19 at the county level in the U.S. between January 22nd-March 9th, 2020, and January 22nd-March 27th, 2020. The space-time prospective scan statistic detected "active" and emerging clusters that are present at the end of our study periods - notably, 18 more clusters were detected when adding the updated case data. These timely results can inform public health officials and decision makers about where to improve the allocation of resources, testing sites; also, where to implement stricter quarantines and travel bans. As more data becomes available, the statistic can be rerun to support timely surveillance of COVID-19, demonstrated here. Our research is the first geographic study that utilizes space-time statistics to monitor COVID-19 in the U.S.

Space-time clusters and co-occurrence of chikungunya and dengue fever in Colombia from 2015 to 2016.

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) infect over one billion people and are responsible for over one million deaths each year, globally. Chikungunya (CHIK) and Dengue Fever (DENF) are emerging VBDs due to overpopulation, increases in urbanization, climate change, and other factors. Colombia has recently experienced severe outbreaks of CHIK AND DENF. Both viruses are transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes and are preventable with a variety of surveillance and vector control measures (e.g. insecticides, reduction of open containers, etc.). Spatiotemporal statistics can facilitate the surveillance of VBD outbreaks by informing public health officials where to allocate resources to mitigate future outbreaks. We utilize the univariate Kulldorff space-time scan statistic (STSS) to identify and compare statistically significant space-time clusters of CHIK and DENF in Colombia during the outbreaks of 2015 and 2016. We also utilize the multivariate STSS to examine co-occurrences (simultaneous excess incidences) of DENF and CHIK, which is critical to identify regions that may have experienced the greatest burden of VBDs. The relative risk of CHIK and DENF for each Colombian municipality belonging to a univariate and multivariate cluster is reported to facilitate targeted interventions. Finally, we visualize the results in a three-dimensional environment to examine the size and duration of the clusters. Our approach is the first of its kind to examine multiple VBDs in Colombia simultaneously, while the 3D visualizations are a novel way of illustrating the dynamics of space-time clusters of disease.

Surgical repair of propagating condylar fractures of the third metacarpal/metatarsal bones with cortical screws placed in lag fashion in 26 racehorses (2007-2015).

BACKGROUND: Despite the recommendation of plate fixation for propagating condylar fractures of the third metacarpal (McIII) or third metatarsal bone (MtIII), lag screw fixation can be a viable surgical option. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate short-term outcome and long-term racing performance of horses that underwent lag screw fixation of long condylar fractures of the McIII/MtIII. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective case series. METHODS: Medical records, post-surgical racing performance and outcome of 26 horses with propagating fractures of the medial and/or lateral condyle of McIII/MtIII were reviewed. Medical information included were age, breed, sex, physical examination at admission, circumstances of fracture, radiographic evaluation, anaesthesia and recovery records, surgical and post-operative management, as well as complications. Outcome included racing data and information from telephone interviews. RESULTS: Twenty-six horses (9 Standardbreds and 17 Thoroughbreds) were admitted with a long condylar fracture of the McIII/MtIII. Fore- and hindlimbs were equally represented with the left hindlimb being more frequently involved. Most of the fractures had a spiralling component (76%) and four (15%) were comminuted. Fifteen (58%) horses raced post-surgery including nine Standardbreds (100%) and six Thoroughbreds (35%). Twelve of them were placed in at least one race and 11 won at least once. One horse sustained a severe complication in recovery. No significant difference was observed in the racing performances before and after surgery. MAIN LIMITATIONS: Follow-up method and duration were not standardised and there is a low number of cases with six surgeons. CONCLUSIONS: Long condylar fractures can be repaired using lag fashion technique combined with a half-limb or full-limb tight cast for recovery as a good surgical alternative. Similar results to plate fixation can be expected, with a return to racing of more than 50%, and the prognosis being even better for pacers.

Surgical repair of rectovaginal fistulae in mares: Twelve cases (1983-1991).

The case records of 12 mares at the Ontario and Atlantic Veterinary Colleges were reviewed to evaluate the success rates of surgical techniques used to repair rectovaginal fistulae. A modified horizontal perineal technique was used in eight mares; it was unsuccessful in one mare, but the fistula was subsequently successfully repaired using the same technique. One rectovaginal fistula that was converted to a third-degree perineal laceration was successfully repaired on the third attempt, using the suture principles of the modified horizontal perineal technique. A modified transvaginal technique was used in three mares, in two of which it failed; their fistulae were subsequently converted to third-degree perineal lacerations and repaired using a one-stage closure. We conclude that the modified horizontal perineal technique is a one-stage procedure that is technically easy to perform, results in less tension on the suture lines, and is effective in modifying poor vulvar conformation.

Heterotopic transfer of fresh and cryopreserved autogenous articular cartilage in the horse.

Two 10 mm thick osteochondral grafts were harvested from the lateral aspect of the lateral trochlear ridge of the left talus in each of 10 anesthetized horses. The grafts were frozen in a 7.5% DMSO solution and stored in liquid nitrogen. The horses were anesthetized again on day 14 and the thawed grafts were press-fitted into drill holes in the trochlear ridges of the right stifle. A fresh graft was transferred from the right hock to the left stifle. To control for the effects of surgery, another fresh graft was transferred from the right stifle to the left stifle. The result was two grafts in each femoropatellar joint. Fresh and frozen osteoarticular autografts appeared to maintain a durable weight-bearing surface for 3 months; however, the fresh grafts were clearly superior. Frozen grafts had fewer living chondrocytes, decreased safranin-O staining, and decreased SO435 uptake. Graft stability and articular surface congruency were determining factors in the outcome of all grafts. Since the availability of osteochondral autografts is limited, further work on the use of preserved allogeneic osteochondral tissue is warranted.

Incorporation of fresh and cryopreserved bone in osteochondral autografts in the horse.

The structural integrity of subchondral bone in fresh and frozen osteochondral autografts was investigated at month 3 in 10 horses. Two osteochondral autografts were harvested from the lateral aspect of the lateral trochlear ridge of the left talus in each of 10 anesthetized horses. Grafts were frozen in 7.5% DMSO. After 14 days, the thawed grafts were press-fitted into drill holes in the trochlear ridges of the right stifles. A fresh graft from the right hock was implanted in each left stifle. To control for the effects of surgery, a fresh graft was transferred from the right stifle to the left stifle. The end result was two grafts in each femoropatellar joint. Fresh and frozen bone grafts maintained a structurally intact support for the cartilage surface. Graft stability and surface congruency were determining factors in the outcome of the grafts. Incorporation of both types of graft was complete at month 3, but remodeling of the fresh grafts was more active.

Diagnosis of equine stifle joint disorders: three cases.

The clinical, radiographic, arthrographic, arthroscopic, and pathological findings of three horses with femorotibial joint injuries are presented. Overall diagnostic accuracy is improved when clinical signs, arthrography, and arthroscopy are combined. Treatment of these injuries remains limited. One horse was euthanized, and two were treated by stall rest after diagnosis. Of the two surviving horses, one became a successful breeding animal, and the other was unable to perform as a pleasure horse.

Surgical management of Rhodococcus equi metaphysitis in a foal.

A chronic Rhodococcus equi metaphysitis involving the distal growth plate of the left third metatarsal bone had induced a longstanding lameness in a young foal. Abnormal hematologic values included mild anemia, hyperfibrinogemia, mild leukocytosis, and neutrophilia. Radiography of the distal portion of MT3 revealed a radiolucent zone on the medial aspect of the growth plate, and small pieces of bone suggestive of sequestra. Treatment with erythromycin estolate and rifampin, aggressive surgical debridement, and cancellous bone grafting helped resolve the bone infection.

Cartilage healing: A review with emphasis on the equine model.

Articular cartilage is a remarkably resilient tissue capable of withstanding considerable stress and repeated loading. Since this tissue has no blood vessels, nerve elements, or lymphatics, it is not surprising that it has a limited capacity for repair when damaged. In the horse, cartilage damage occurs as an occupational hazard. Furthermore, developmental defects such as osteochondrosis can lead to osteochondritis dissecans. Resultant cartilage flaps, fissures, and poorly organized subchondral bone produce disruption of joint surfaces.Veterinarians are often called upon to intervene when damaged cartilage has healed incompletely. Basic understanding of the physiology and repair mechanisms of cartilage is paramount to successfully managing such injuries. This literature review gives a brief overview of recently published clinical and experimental studies on the healing of cartilage. The discussion centers on the equine model.