Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens. METHODS: Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years. RESULTS: Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Assessing complex interventions: a systematic review of outcomes used in randomised controlled trials on STI partner notification in high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Partner notification interventions are complex and assessing their effectiveness is challenging. By reviewing the literature on the effectiveness of partner notification interventions, our aim was to evaluate the choice, collection, and interpretation of outcomes and their impact on study findings. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of individual-level randomised controlled trials evaluating the effectiveness of partner notification interventions for bacterial STIs, HIV or sexually transmitted HCV in high-income countries since 2000. Partner notification interventions included assisted patient referral interventions and expedited treatment. The content analysis was carried out through a narrative review. RESULTS: In the 9 studies that met the inclusion criteria, 16 different outcomes were found. In most studies, one or two outcomes assessing partner notification practices were associated with an outcome reflecting STI circulation through index case reinfections. These outcomes assessed the main expected effects of partner notification interventions. However, partner notification is composed of a succession of actions between the intervention on the index case and the testing and/or treatment of the notified partners. Intermediate outcomes were missing so as to better understand levers and barriers throughout the process. Potential changes in participants' sexual behaviour after partner notification, e.g. condom use, were outcomes reported in only two studies assessing interventions including counselling. Most outcomes were collected through interviews, some weeks after the intervention, which might lead to desirability and attrition biases, respectively. Assessment of the effectiveness of partner notification interventions on partner testing/treatment was limited by the collection of data from index cases. Few data describing index cases and their partners were provided in the studies. Additional data on the number and type of exposed partners and the proportion of partners already aware of their infection before being notified would help to interpret the results. CONCLUSIONS: These insights would help to understand why and under what conditions the intervention is considered effective and therefore can be replicated or adapted to other populations and contexts.

Modelling the potential effectiveness of hepatitis C screening and treatment strategies during pregnancy in Egypt and Ukraine.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: HCV test and treat campaigns currently exclude pregnant women. Pregnancy offers a unique opportunity for HCV screening and to potentially initiate direct-acting antiviral treatment. We explored HCV screening and treatment strategies in two lower middle-income countries with high HCV prevalence, Egypt and Ukraine. METHODS: Country-specific probabilistic decision models were developed to simulate a cohort of pregnant women. We compared five strategies: S0, targeted risk-based screening and deferred treatment (DT) to after pregnancy/breastfeeding; S1, World Health Organization (WHO) risk-based screening and DT; S2, WHO risk-based screening and targeted treatment (treat women with risk factors for HCV vertical transmission [VT]); S3, universal screening and targeted treatment during pregnancy; S4, universal screening and treatment. Maternal and infant HCV outcomes were projected. RESULTS: S0 resulted in the highest proportion of women undiagnosed: 59% and 20% in Egypt and Ukraine, respectively, with 0% maternal cure by delivery and VT estimated at 6.5% and 7.9%, respectively. WHO risk-based screening and DT (S1) increased the proportion of women diagnosed with no change in maternal cure or VT. Universal screening and treatment during pregnancy (S4) resulted in the highest proportion of women diagnosed and cured by delivery (65% and 70%, respectively), and lower levels of VT (3.4% and 3.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first models to explore HCV screening and treatment strategies in pregnancy, which will be critical in informing future care and policy as more safety/efficacy data emerge. Universal screening and treatment in pregnancy could potentially improve both maternal and infant outcomes. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: In the context of two lower middle-income countries with high HCV burdens (Egypt and Ukraine), we designed a decision analytic model to explore five different HCV testing and treatment strategies for pregnant women, with the assumption that treatment was safe and efficacious for use in pregnancy. Assuming direct-acting antiviral treatment during pregnancy would reduce vertical transmission, our findings indicate that the provision of universal (rather than risk-based targeted) screening and treatment would provide the greatest maternal and infant benefits. While future trials are needed to assess the safety and efficacy of direct-acting antivirals in pregnancy and their impact on vertical transmission, there is increasing recognition that the elimination of HCV cannot leave entire subpopulations of pregnant women and young children behind. Our findings will be critical for policymakers when developing improved screening and treatment recommendations for pregnant women.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus test-and-treat and risk reduction strategies among men who have sex with men living with HIV in France.

INTRODUCTION: Studies suggest that hepatitis C virus (HCV) micro-elimination is feasible among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), through treatment-as-prevention and interventions aimed at reducing risk behaviours. However, their economic impact is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening and risk reduction strategies in France. METHODS: A compartmental deterministic mathematical model was developed to describe HCV disease transmission and progression among MSM living with HIV in France. We evaluated different combinations of HCV screening frequency (every 12, 6 or 3 months) and risk reduction strategies (targeting only high-risk or all MSM) from 2021 onwards. The model simulated the number of HCV infections, life-expectancy (LYs), quality-adjusted life-expectancy (QALYs), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon (leading to an end of the simulation in 2065). RESULTS: All strategies increased QALYs, compared with current practices, that is yearly HCV screening, with no risk reduction. A behavioural intervention resulting in a 20% risk reduction in the high-risk group, together with yearly screening, was the least expensive strategy, and, therefore, cost-saving compared to current practices. The ICER per QALY gained for the strategy combining risk reduction for the high-risk group with 6-month HCV screening, compared to risk reduction with yearly screening, was €61,389. It also prevented 398 new HCV infections between 2021 and 2065, with a cost per infection averted of €37,790. All other strategies were dominated (more expensive and less effective than some other available alternative) or not cost-effective (ICER per QALY gained > €100,000). CONCLUSIONS: In the French context, current HCV screening practices without risk reduction among MSM living with HIV cannot be justified on economic grounds. Risk reduction interventions targeted to high-risk individuals-alongside screening either once or twice a year-could be cost-effective depending on the policymaker's willingness-to-pay.

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer-specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10-year HCC-CFR, HCC-related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months], semiannual [6 months], or quarterly [3 months]) and imaging modalities (ultrasound [US] or magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in various annual incidences (0.2%, 0.4%, or 1.5%). Compared to no surveillance, 6-month US reduced the 10-year HCC-CFR from 77% to 46%. With annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, the model predicted 281, 565, and 2059 fewer HCC-related deaths, respectively, and 187, 374, and 1356 fewer total deaths per 100,000 screened patients, respectively. Combining alpha-fetoprotein screening to 6-month US led to 32, 63, and 230 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients for annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 3-month US reduced cancer-related mortality by 14%, predicting 61, 123, and 446 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients with annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 6-month MRI (-17%) and 12-month MRI (-6%) reduced HCC-related mortality. Compared to 6-month US, overall mortality reductions ranged from -0.1% to -1.3% when using 3-month US or MRI. A US surveillance interval of 6 months improves HCC-related and overall mortality compared to no surveillance. A shorter US interval or using MRI could reduce HCC-CFR and HCC-related mortality, with a modest effect on overall mortality.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV: results from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) cohort study, 2014 to 2017.

BackgroundDespite the availability of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and the expected treatment as prevention (TasP) effect, transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists in men who have sex with men (MSM) who engage in high-risk sexual behaviours.AimWe aimed to estimate the incidence of primary HCV infection among MSM living with HIV in France when DAA was readily available.MethodsWe used data from a large French hospital cohort of persons living with HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) prospectively collected between 2014 and 2017. HCV incidence rates were calculated using person-time methods for HCV-negative MSM at inclusion who had serological follow-up from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2017. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying the main assumptions to assess their impact on the results.ResultsOf 14,273 MSM living with HIV who were initially HCV-seronegative, 330 acquired HCV during follow-up over 45,866 person-years (py), resulting in an overall estimated incidence rate of 0.72/100 py (95% CI: 0.65-0.80). HCV incidence significantly decreased from 0.98/100 py (95% CI: 0.81-1.19) in 2014 to 0.45/100 py (95% CI: 0.35-0.59) in 2017 (54% decrease; 95% CI: 36-67). This trend was confirmed by most of the sensitivity analyses.ConclusionThe primary incidence of HCV was halved for MSM living with HIV between 2014 and 2017. This decrease may be related to unrestricted DAA availability in France for individuals living with HIV. Further interventions, including risk reduction, are needed to reach HCV micro-elimination in MSM living with HIV.

A tool to predict progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in severely obese patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Severely obese patients are a growing population at risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Considering the increasing burden, a predictive tool of NAFLD progression would be of interest. Our objective was to provide a tool allowing general practitioners to identify and refer the patients most at risk, and specialists to estimate disease progression and adapt the therapeutic strategy. METHODS: This predictive tool is based on a Markov model simulating steatosis, fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) evolution. This model was developped from data of 1801 severely obese, bariatric surgery candidates, with histological assessment, integrating duration of exposure to risk factors. It is then able to predict current disease severity in the absence of assessment, and future cirrhosis risk based on current stage. RESULTS: The model quantifies the impact of sex, body-mass index at 20, diabetes, age of overweight onset, on progression. For example, for 40-year-old severely obese patients seen by the general practitioners: (a) non-diabetic woman overweight at 20, and (b) diabetic man overweight at 10, without disease assessment, the model predicts their current risk to have NASH or F3-F4: for (a) 5.7% and 0.6%, for (b) 16.1% and 10.0% respectively. If those patients have been diagnosed F2 by the specialist, the model predicts the 5-year cirrhosis risk: 1.8% in the absence of NASH and 6.0% in its presence for (a), 10.3% and 26.7% respectively, for (b). CONCLUSIONS: This model provides a decision-making tool to predict the risk of liver disease that could help manage severely obese patients.

Impact of test-and-treat and risk reduction strategies on HCV transmission among MSM living with HIV in France: a modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Since the early 2000s, there has been an epidemic of HCV occurring among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV, mainly associated with high-risk sexual and drug-related behaviours. Early HCV diagnosis and treatment, and behavioural risk-reduction, may be effective to eliminate HCV among MSM living with HIV. DESIGN: We developed a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to simulate the impact of test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies on HCV epidemic (particularly on incidence and prevalence) among MSM living with HIV in France. We accounted for HIV and HCV cascades of care, HCV natural history and heterogeneity in HCV risk behaviours. The model was calibrated to primary HCV incidence observed between 2014 and 2017 among MSM living with HIV in care (ANRS CO4-French hospital database on HIV (FHDH)). RESULTS: With current French practices (annual HCV screening and immediate treatment), total HCV incidence would fall by 70%, from 0.82/100 person-years in 2015 to 0.24/100 person-years in 2030. It would decrease to 0.19/100 person-years in 2030 with more frequent screening and to 0.19 (0.12)/100 person-years in 2030 with a 20% (50%) risk-reduction. When combining screening every 3 months with a 50% risk-reduction, HCV incidence would be 0.11/100 person-years in 2030, allowing to get close to the WHO target (90% reduction from 2015 to 2030). Similarly, HCV prevalence would decrease from 2.79% in 2015 to 0.48% in 2030 (vs 0.71% with current practices). CONCLUSION: Combining test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies could have a marked impact on the HCV epidemic, paving the way to HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV.

A Model to Identify Heavy Drinkers at High Risk for Liver Disease Progression.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) causes chronic liver disease. We investigated how information on patients' drinking history and amount, stage of liver disease, and demographic feature can be used to determine risk of disease progression. METHODS: We collected data from 2334 heavy drinkers (50 g/day or more) with persistently abnormal results from liver tests who had been admitted to a hepato-gastroenterology unit in France from January 1982 through December 1997; patients with a recorded duration of alcohol abuse were assigned to the development cohort (n=1599; 75% men) or the validation cohort (n=735; 75% men), based on presence of a liver biopsy. We collected data from both cohorts on patient history and disease stage at the time of hospitalization. For the development cohort, severity of the disease was scored by the METAVIR (due to the availability of liver histology reports); in the validation cohort only the presence of liver complications was assessed. We developed a model of ALD progression and occurrence of liver complications (hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver decompensation) in association with exposure to alcohol, age at the onset of heavy drinking, amount of alcohol intake, sex and body mass index. The model was fitted to the development cohort and then evaluated in the validation cohort. We then tested the ability of the model to predict disease progression for any patient profile (baseline evaluation). Patients with a 5-y weighted risk of liver complications greater than 5% were considered at high risk for disease progression. RESULTS: Model results are given for the following patient profiles: men and women, 40 y old, who started drinking at an age of 25 y, drank 150 g/day, and had a body mass index of 22 kg/m2 according to the disease severity at baseline evaluation. For men with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, the model estimated the probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline to be 31.8%, 61.5% and 6.7%, respectively. The 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 1.9%, ranging from 0.2% for men with normal liver at baseline evaluation to 10.3% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. For women with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline were 25.1%, 66.5% and 8.4%, respectively; the 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 3.2%, ranging from 0.5% for women with normal liver at baseline to 14.7% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. Based on the model, men with F3-F4 fibrosis at baseline have a 24.5% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 20.2% to 34.5%) and women have a 30.1% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 24.7% to 41.0%). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a Markov model that integrates data on level and duration of alcohol use to identify patients at high risk of liver disease progression. This model might be used to adapt patient care pathways.

Securing sustainable funding for viral hepatitis elimination plans.

The majority of people infected with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the European Union (EU) remain undiagnosed and untreated. During recent years, immigration to EU has further increased HCV prevalence. It has been estimated that, out of the 4.2 million adults affected by HCV infection in the 31 EU/ European Economic Area (EEA) countries, as many as 580 000 are migrants. Additionally, HCV is highly prevalent and under addressed in Eastern Europe. In 2013, the introduction of highly effective treatments for HCV with direct-acting antivirals created an unprecedented opportunity to cure almost all patients, reduce HCV transmission and eliminate the disease. However, in many settings, HCV elimination poses a serious challenge for countries' health spending. On 6 June 2018, the Hepatitis B and C Public Policy Association held the 2nd EU HCV Policy summit. It was emphasized that key stakeholders should work collaboratively since only a few countries in the EU are on track to achieve HCV elimination by 2030. In particular, more effort is needed for universal screening. The micro-elimination approach in specific populations is less complex and less costly than country-wide elimination programmes and is an important first step in many settings. Preliminary data suggest that implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis can be cost saving. However, innovative financing mechanisms are needed to raise funds upfront for scaling up screening, treatment and harm reduction interventions that can lead to HCV elimination by 2030, the stated goal of the WHO.

Quality of life in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection: Severe comorbidities and disease perception matter more than liver-disease stage.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: This study evaluated the clinical and non-clinical determinants of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) associated with untreated chronic hepatitis C (CHC) in France. METHODS: From 01/2014 to 01/2015, untreated CHC patients were invited to complete a questionnaire including EQ-5D utility instrument and two visual analogue scales (VAS) measuring overall health and fatigue in three French centers (Paris, Lille and Montpellier). Answers were analyzed in mixed models (taking into account the clustering effects of centers and physicians). RESULTS: Five hundreds and five patients were enrolled: 52% males; the mean age was 54; 41% had BMI>25; 64% had genotype 1; 36% were at the stage of severe fibrosis (F3-F4); 38% had severe comorbidities other than liver-related. In the univariate analysis, EQ-5D utility was associated with socio-demographic variables as age, place of birth, education, and employment; CHC-related variables as conditions of HCV screening and severity of fibrosis; CHC-unrelated variables as comorbidities other than CHC, being overweight, and psychiatric disorders; feelings about CHC disease as perception of progression, lack of information on CHC and its treatments, and entourage's feeling. In multivariate analysis, EQ-5D utility was affected by not being in employment (0.72 vs. 0.80), having severe comorbidities other than CHC (0.72 vs. 0.79), being overweight (0.73 vs. 0.78), and feeling worried about CHC progression (0.66 vs. 0.72-0.84). Similar results were found for the VAS. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of severe comorbidities and worrying about CHC progression, but not stage of fibrosis, seem to alter significantly EQ-5D health utility in CHC French patients.

The global campaign to eliminate HBV and HCV infection: International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting and core indicators for development towards the 2030 elimination goals.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) affect more than 320 million people worldwide, which is more than HIV, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria combined. Elimination of HBV and HCV will, therefore, produce substantial public health and economic benefits and, most importantly, the prevention of 1.2 million deaths per year. In 2016, member states of the World Health Assembly unanimously adopted a resolution declaring that viral hepatitis should be eliminated by 2030. Currently, few countries have elimination programmes in place and even though the tools to achieve elimination are available, the right resources, commitments and allocations are lacking. During the fifth International Viral Hepatitis Elimination Meeting (IVHEM), 7-8 December 2018, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, an expert panel of clinicians, virologists and public health specialists discussed the current status of viral hepatitis elimination programmes across multiple countries, challenges in achieving elimination and the core indicators for monitoring progress, approaches that have failed and successful elimination plans.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C screening strategies in France.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In Europe, hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening still targets people at high risk of infection. We aim to determine the cost-effectiveness of expanded HCV screening in France. METHODS: A Markov model simulated chronic hepatitis C (CHC) prevalence, incidence of events, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in the French general population, aged 18 to 80 years, undiagnosed for CHC for different strategies: S1 = current strategy targeting the at risk population; S2 = S1 and all men between 18 and 59 years; S3 = S1 and all individuals between 40 and 59 years; S4 = S1 and all individuals between 40 and 80 years; S5 = all individuals between 18 and 80 years (universal screening). Once CHC was diagnosed, treatment was initiated either to patients with fibrosis stage ≥F2 or regardless of fibrosis. Data were extracted from published literature, a national prevalence survey, and a previously published mathematical model. ICER were interpreted based on one or three times French GDP per capita (€32,800). RESULTS: Universal screening led to the lowest prevalence of CHC and incidence of events, regardless of treatment initiation. When considering treatment initiation to patients with fibrosis ≥F2, targeting all people aged 40-80 was the only cost-effective strategy at both thresholds (€26,100/QALY). When we considered treatment for all, although universal screening of all individuals aged 18-80 is associated with the highest costs, it is more effective than targeting all people aged 40-80, and cost-effective at both thresholds (€31,100/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: In France, universal screening is the most effective screening strategy for HCV. Universal screening is cost-effective when treatment is initiated regardless of fibrosis stage. From an individual and especially from a societal perspective of HCV eradication, this strategy should be implemented. LAY SUMMARY: In the context of highly effective and well tolerated therapies for hepatitis C virus that are now recommended for all patients, a reassessment of hepatitis C screening strategies is needed. An effectiveness and cost-effectiveness study of different strategies targeting either the at-risk population, specific ages or all individuals was performed. In France, universal screening is the most effective strategy and is cost-effective when treatment is initiated regardless of fibrosis stage. From an individual and especially from a societal perspective of hepatitis C virus eradication, this strategy should be implemented.

Hepatocellular carcinoma is diagnosed at a later stage in alcoholic patients: Results of a prospective, nationwide study.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is diagnosed at a later stage. The aim of this study was to compare HCC characteristics and outcomes in an alcohol-related group (group A) and a non-alcohol-related group (group NA). METHODS: A total of 1207 patients with newly diagnosed HCC were prospectively included between May 2008 and October 2009. Patients with multiple causes (alcohol plus another cause) were excluded. Patients were followed every year for 5 years. Recorded variables, including etiologies were tested as prognostic factors of survival in a multivariate Cox model after adjustments for a lead-time bias. RESULTS: In all, 894 patients were analyzed: 582 (65.1%) were in group A, and 312 (34.9%) were in group NA. Alcohol-related HCC was more likely to be diffuse and detected in patients with a worse performance status and worse liver function. After adjustments for a lead-time bias, the median overall survival (OS) was 9.7 and 5.7 months in groups NA and A, respectively (P = .0002), and 5.8 and 5.0 months in alcohol-abstinent and alcohol non-abstinent groups, respectively (P = .09). The prognostic role of alcohol disappeared when survival was assessed at each Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage. Patients with HCC detected during a cirrhosis follow-up program (n = 199 [22.3% of the whole cohort]) had increased lead time-adjusted median OS in comparison with patients with HCC diagnosed incidentally (11.7 vs 5.4 months; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: In comparison with patients with non-alcohol-related HCC, patients with alcohol-related HCC have reduced OS, mainly because of worse liver function and tumor characteristics at diagnosis, as attested by similar survival within each BCLC stage. Cancer 2018;124:1964-72. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Severe liver disease related to chronic hepatitis C virus infection in treatment-naive patients: epidemiological characteristics and associated factors at first expert centre visit, France, 2000 to 2007 and 2010 to 2014.

Given recent profound improvements in the effectiveness of antiviral treatment for chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we aimed to describe the characteristics of patients referred to hepatology expert centres in France from 2000 to 2007 and from 2010 to 2014, and to identify factors associated with severe liver disease at their first visit for evaluation. We analysed data from two sources covering all of France: the former hepatitis C surveillance network, which included patients between 2000 and 2007, and the ANRS CO22 HEPATHER multi-centre cohort, which included patients between 2012 and 2014. Severe liver disease (SLD) was defined as the presence of either cirrhosis (histological, biochemical or clinical) or hepatocellular carcinoma. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to identify the factors associated with SLD in complete-case analysis and after multiple imputation. Overall, 16,851 patients were included in the analysis and SLD was diagnosed in 11.6%. SLD at first visit was significantly associated with known risk factors (male sex, history of excessive alcohol intake, HCV genotype 3), late referral to hepatologists after diagnosis and HCV diagnosis at an older age. Providing earlier specialised care and treatment may be an important target for public health action.

Estimating the Time to Diagnosis and the Chance of Spontaneous Clearance During Acute Hepatitis C in Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is often asymptomatic, and the date of infection is almost impossible to determine. Furthermore, spontaneous clearance (SC) may occur, but little is known about its time of occurrence. METHODS: Data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-HCV coinfected individuals were used to inform a stochastic simulation model of HCV viral load kinetics, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and HCV antibodies during acute hepatitis C. The dates of diagnosis and potential SC were estimated through a Bayesian approach. Hepatitis C virus diagnosis was assumed to be based on an elevated ALT level detected during a control visit for HIV-infected individuals, which occurred every 3 months (scenario A) or every 6 months (scenario B). RESULTS: We found that HCV diagnosis occurred after a median of 115 days and 170 days of infection in scenarios A and B, respectively. Among spontaneous clearers, SC occurred after a median time of 184 days after infection. Seven percent (scenario B) to 10% (scenario A) of SCs appeared more than 6 months after diagnosis, and 3% (both scenarios) of SCs appeared more than 1 year after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Acute hepatitis C diagnosis occurs late in HIV-HCV coinfected individuals. Screening for HCV in HIV-infected individuals should be performed frequently to reduce delays. Our findings about late occurrence of SC support "wait and see" strategies for treatment initiation from an individual basis. However, early treatment initiation may reduce HCV transmission.

Are targeted treatment recommendations in chronic hepatitis C tailored to diagnostic methods of fibrosis?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The progression of chronic HCV infection varies significantly depending on patient characteristics. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the consequences of targeted and universal therapy for HCV-related morbidity-mortality based on the use of non-invasive diagnostic tests in France, Italy and the UK. METHODS: A country-specific Markov model was used to predict clinical outcomes in patients with chronic HCV mono-infection over 5years. Therapeutic strategies used in the three countries analysed: no treatment, targeted therapy based on stage of fibrosis (F2- or F3-scenario), treatment regardless of stage of fibrosis (universal analysis), base-case analysis and yearly assessments. RESULTS: Universal therapy is the most effective strategy and reduced the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 12.0-17.7, liver complications by 4.2-5.3 and liver deaths by 3.7-4.7, vs. no treatment. In base-case analysis, the F2-scenario using FibroScan or patented blood biomarkers reduces the 5-year incidence of cirrhosis by 2.7-4.0, liver complications by 3.5-3.7 and liver deaths by 3.3-3.7, vs. no treatment. The results of the F3-scenario are poor for the incidence of cirrhosis, and moderately effective for the liver complications. The alternative analysis with a yearly assessment of fibrosis improves the impact of targeted therapy. CONCLUSION: By quantifying the impact of different strategies of targeted therapy and universal therapy, this study could help health agencies and experts to draft therapeutic guidelines for HCV-related fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: The impact of different treatment strategies was evaluated in three countries, France, Italy and UK, using a mathematical model. This analysis showed that: i) A prioritization strategy of HCV treatment for patients with advanced disease would decrease the overall impact of treatment on morbidity and mortality; and ii) A strategy initiating HCV treatment to all would already show a benefit in reducing 5-year morbidity and mortality.

2014 French guidelines for hepatitis B and C screening: a combined targeted and mass testing strategy of chronic viruses namely HBV, HCV and HIV.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Worldwide and, to a lesser extent, in France, a minority of individuals infected with hepatitis B (HBV) and C (HCV) is aware of its status. Given the current availability of highly effective anti-HBV and anti-HCV agents, the high rate of undiagnosed people, associated with individual and community prejudices (liver disease worsening, persistence of a hidden transmission reservoir and medicoeconomic burden of delayed care), is unacceptable. METHODS: On the occasion of the first French general report on viral hepatitis, new recommendations for HBV and HCV testing were issued. We aim to introduce the new French strategy for HBV and HCV screening, and to describe the underlying epidemiological data. RESULTS: These recommendations comprise various items. First, the screening of chronic viruses, namely HBV, HCV and HIV, should be quasi-systematically combined. Second, the targeted screening of groups at risk of viral exposure must be strengthened. Third, routine testing for each of these three viruses should be offered at least once to men of 18-60 years old who had never been tested. In parallel, in pregnant women, in addition to HIV-HBV screening, currently recommended HCV testing should be routinely performed during the first trimester of pregnancy. In order to best achieve the target populations, community initiatives that propose testing actions should be encouraged, particularly those including rapid point-of-care tests. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these recommendations aim to define a comprehensive testing strategy for chronic viral infections, emphasizing both targeted screening and mass screening and considering jointly HBV, HCV and HIV.