Prognostication of Mortality and Long-Term Functional Outcomes Following Traumatic Brain Injury: Can We Do Better?

Accurate prognostication of outcomes following traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects not only the aggressiveness of intervention and therapeutic decision-making but also clinicians' ability to provide reliable expectations. To investigate the relative ability of clinicians to accurately predict a patient's outcomes, compared with point-of-care prognostic models, we surveyed clinical providers of 86 patients with moderate-severe TBI at admission, Day 3, and Day 7 post-injury for a patient's predicted mortality and functional outcome at 6 months. The predicted mortality and functional outcomes were compared with actual occurrence of 14-day mortality and functional outcomes at six months. A prognostic score was then calculated utilizing the Corticoid Randomization After Significant Head Injury (CRASH) and International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) models and categorized as high, intermediate, and low likelihood of mortality or poor functional outcome, and compared with clinical predictions. Overall, clinicians of varying backgrounds showed an accurate prediction of survival (87.2-97.4%) but struggled in prognosticating poor functional outcomes (24.3-36.6%). These values did not statistically improve over 7 days. Stratified CRASH (87.2%) and IMPACT (84.9%) accuracy rates were statistically better than clinical judgment alone in predicting functional outcomes (p < 0.0001). Prognostic models calculated at admission showed to be potentially useful, in conjunction with clinical judgment, in accurately predicting both survival and 6-month functional outcomes.

Damage control resuscitation protocol and the management of open abdomens in trauma patients.

Although the use of damage control laparotomy (DCL) is well established, the effect of damage control resuscitation (DCR) on the management of open abdomens is relatively poorly studied. The aim of the present study was to determine the predictors for failure to achieve primary fascial closure (PFC) after DCL in the setting of a massive transfusion (MT) and DCR. This is a retrospective review over a 12-year period of all patients that underwent MT and DCL. Patients who achieved PFC were compared with those who did not (NPFC). Student's t tests were used to compare the two groups. A multiple logistic regression model was performed to identify independent risk factors for failure to attain PFC. Of 174 patients, 101 achieved PFC. Mean (± standard deviation) age was 35.6 ± 14.9 years for PFC and 36.3 ± 14.0 years for NPFC (P = 0.75). Admission Glasgow Coma Scale score was 11.4 ± 4.6 for PFC and 10.6 ± 5.0 for NPFC (P = 0.25). Initial lactate (7.3 ± 3.8 vs 7.7 ± 4.1, P = 0.50), hemoglobin (11.3 ± 1.9 vs 11.0 ± 2.2, P = 0.43), systolic blood pressure (108 ± 44 vs 107 ± 35, P = 0.82), Injury Severity Score (34 ± 14 vs 36 ± 15, P = 0.32), and abdominal Abbreviated Injury Score (3.6 ± 1.1 vs 3.9 ± 1.0, P = 0.13) were similar between the two groups. There was no difference in total blood products administered at 24 hours (46 ± 26 vs 49 ± 29 units, P = 0.45). Logistic regression identified increasing volume of crystalloid at 24 hours (odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.99; P = 0.047), earlier operative year (2.1; 1.52 to 2.91; P < 0.001), and increased number of procedures (0.32, 0.18 to 0.58; P < 0.001) as independent predictors for failure to obtain PFC. Injury severity is not associated with failure to achieve PFC, whereas administration of large-volume crystalloid resuscitation, increasing number procedures, and earlier year of DCL are independent predictors for failure to achieve PFC. Application of DCR to DCL techniques results in an improvement in ability to achieve PFC.