Analysing the distance decay of community similarity in river networks using Bayesian methods.

The distance decay of community similarity (DDCS) is a pattern that is widely observed in terrestrial and aquatic environments. Niche-based theories argue that species are sorted in space according to their ability to adapt to new environmental conditions. The ecological neutral theory argues that community similarity decays due to ecological drift. The continuum hypothesis provides an intermediate perspective between niche-based theories and the neutral theory, arguing that niche and neutral factors are at the opposite ends of a continuum that ranges from competitive to stochastic exclusion. We assessed the association between niche-based and neutral factors and changes in community similarity measured by Sorensen's index in riparian plant communities. We assessed the importance of neutral processes using network distances and flow connection and of niche-based processes using Strahler order differences and precipitation differences. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to determine which perspective is best supported by the results. We used dataset composed of 338 vegetation censuses from eleven river basins in continental Portugal. We observed that changes in Sorensen indices were associated with network distance, flow connection, Strahler order difference and precipitation difference but to different degrees. The results suggest that community similarity changes are associated with environmental and neutral factors, supporting the continuum hypothesis.

Bayesian Methods to Analyze Historical Collections in Time and Space: A Case Study Using Cabo Verde Endemic Flora.

Biological collections, including herbarium specimens, are unique sources of biodiversity data presenting a window on the history of the development and accumulation of knowledge of a specific geographical region. Understanding how the process of discovery impacts that knowledge is particularly important for oceanic islands which are often characterized by both high levels of endemic diversity and high proportions of threatened taxa. The archipelagos of the Macaronesian region (i.e. Azores, Canaries, Savages, Madeira, and Cabo Verde) have been the focus of attention for scientific expeditions since the end of the 17th century. However, there is no integrated study describing the historical process of collecting, discovery and description of its flora. Using as a case study the Cabo Verde endemic angiosperm flora, we review the history of collecting in the flora and apply a Bayesian approach to assess the accumulation of species discovery, through time and space across the nine islands of the archipelago. Our results highlight the central role not only of natural characteristics (e.g. area, age, maximum altitude and average value of the terrain ruggedness index) but also historical factors (i.e. the location of major harbors) for the development of knowledge of the flora. The main factors that have determined the process of species description in the archipelago and how this impact our understanding of diversity patterns across archipelagos are discussed.

Density and distribution of western chimpanzees around a bauxite deposit in the Boé Sector, Guinea-Bissau.

The Boé sector in southeast Guinea-Bissau harbors a population of western chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) that inhabits a mosaic of forest and savanna. The Boé sector contains a substantial bauxite deposit in a region called Ronde Hill, and there are plans for the construction of a mine, which may endanger the chimpanzee population. In 1-week survey in May 2013, we used the standing crop nest counts method to obtain the number of chimpanzee nests and from that estimate the density and abundance of chimpanzees. We carried out five 1-km line transects that covered the bauxite deposit and surrounding valleys. We used density surface modeling to analyze habitat preferences, then predicted chimpanzee nest density and distribution based on environmental variables. We found the projected location of the mine partially coincides with an area of high predicted abundances of chimpanzee nests and is surrounded by highly suitable areas for chimpanzees (northeast and southwest). We conclude the mine could have significant direct and indirect effects on this population of chimpanzees whose impacts must be carefully considered and properly mitigated if the mine is built.

Landscape dynamics in Mediterranean oak forests under global change: understanding the role of anthropogenic and environmental drivers across forest types.

The Mediterranean region is projected to be extremely vulnerable to global change, which will affect the distribution of typical forest types such as native oak forests. However, our understanding of Mediterranean oak forest responses to future conditions is still very limited by the lack of knowledge on oak forest dynamics and species-specific responses to multiple drivers. We compared the long-term (1966-2006) forest persistence and land cover change among evergreen (cork oak and holm oak) and deciduous oak forests and evaluated the importance of anthropogenic and environmental drivers on observed changes for Portugal. We used National Forest Inventories to quantify the changes in oak forests and explored the drivers of change using multinomial logistic regression analysis and an information theoretical approach. We found distinct trends among oak forest types, reflecting the differences in oak economic value, protection status and management schemes: cork oak forests were the most persistent (62%), changing mostly to pines and eucalypt; holm oak forests were less persistent (53.2%), changing mostly to agriculture; and deciduous oak forests were the least persistent (45.7%), changing mostly to shrublands. Drivers of change had distinct importance across oak forest types, but drivers from anthropogenic origin (wildfires, population density, and land accessibility) were always among the most important. Climatic extremes were also important predictors of oak forest changes, namely extreme temperatures for evergreen oak forests and deficit of precipitation for deciduous oak forests. Our results indicate that under increasing human pressure and forecasted climate change, evergreen oak forests will continue declining and deciduous oak forests will be replaced by forests dominated by more xeric species. In the long run, multiple disturbances may change competitive dominance from oak forests to pyrophytic shrublands. A better understanding of forest dynamics and the inclusion of anthropogenic drivers on models of vegetation change will improve predicting the future of Mediterranean oak forests.