Cost-effectiveness of incorporating Ebola prediction score tools and rapid diagnostic tests into a screening algorithm: A decision analytic model.

BACKGROUND: No distinctive clinical signs of Ebola virus disease (EVD) have prompted the development of rapid screening tools or called for a new approach to screening suspected Ebola cases. New screening approaches require evidence of clinical benefit and economic efficiency. As of now, no evidence or defined algorithm exists. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, from a healthcare perspective, the efficiency of incorporating Ebola prediction scores and rapid diagnostic tests into the EVD screening algorithm during an outbreak. METHODS: We collected data on rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and prediction scores' accuracy measurements, e.g., sensitivity and specificity, and the cost of case management and RDT screening in EVD suspect cases. The overall cost of healthcare services (PPE, procedure time, and standard-of-care (SOC) costs) per suspected patient and diagnostic confirmation of EVD were calculated. We also collected the EVD prevalence among suspects from the literature. We created an analytical decision model to assess the efficiency of eight screening strategies: 1) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition for Ebola suspects, 2) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off, 3) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test, 4) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test, 5) Screening suspect cases with the WHO case definition, then QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 6) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS at -3 points of cut-off and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, 7) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a conditional test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT, and 8) Screening suspect cases with the ECPS as a joint test and QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to identify an algorithm that minimizes the cost per patient correctly classified. We performed a one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Our analysis found dual ECPS as a conditional test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm to be the most cost-effective screening algorithm for EVD, with an effectiveness of 0.86. The cost-effectiveness ratio was 106.7 USD per patient correctly classified. The following algorithms, the ECPS as a conditional test with an effectiveness of 0.80 and an efficiency of 111.5 USD per patient correctly classified and the ECPS as a joint test with the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm with an effectiveness of 0.81 and a cost-effectiveness ratio of 131.5 USD per patient correctly classified. These findings were sensitive to variations in the prevalence of EVD in suspected population and the sensitivity of the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study showed that prediction scores and RDT could improve Ebola screening. The use of the ECPS as a conditional test algorithm and the dual ECPS as a conditional test and then the QuickNavi™-Ebola RDT algorithm are the best screening choices because they are more efficient and lower the number of confirmation tests and overall care costs during an EBOV epidemic.

Development of Ebola virus disease prediction scores: Screening tools for Ebola suspects at the triage-point during an outbreak.

BACKGROUND: The control of Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreaks relies on rapid diagnosis and prompt action, a daunting task in limited-resource contexts. This study develops prediction scores that can help healthcare workers improve their decision-making at the triage-point of EVD suspect-cases during EVD outbreaks. METHODS: We computed accuracy measurements of EVD predictors to assess their diagnosing ability compared with the reference standard GeneXpert® results, during the eastern DRC EVD outbreak. We developed predictive scores using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones approach and constructed a clinical prediction score (CPS) and an extended clinical prediction score (ECPS). We plotted the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), estimated the area under the ROC (AUROC) to assess the performance of scores, and computed net benefits (NB) to assess the clinical utility (decision-making ability) of the scores at a given cut-off. We performed decision curve analysis (DCA) to compare, at a range of threshold probabilities, prediction scores' decision-making ability and to quantify the number of unnecessary isolation. RESULTS: The analysis was done on data from 10432 subjects, including 651 EVD cases. The EVD prevalence was 6.2% in the whole dataset, 14.8% in the subgroup of suspects who fitted the WHO Ebola case definition, and 3.2% for the set of suspects who did not fit this case definition. The WHO clinical definition yielded 61.6% sensitivity and 76.4% specificity. Fatigue, difficulty in swallowing, red eyes, gingival bleeding, hematemesis, confusion, hemoptysis, and a history of contact with an EVD case were predictors of EVD. The AUROC for ECPS was 0.88 (95%CI: 0.86-0.89), significantly greater than this for CPS, 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69-0.73) (p < 0.0001). At -1 point of score, the CPS yielded a sensitivity of 85.4% and specificity of 42.3%, and the ECPS yielded sensitivity of 78.8% and specificity of 81.4%. The diagnostic performance of the scores varied in the three disease contexts (the whole, fitting or not fitting the WHO case definition data sets). At 10% of threshold probability, e.g. in disease-adverse context, ECPS gave an NB of 0.033 and a net reduction of unnecessary isolation of 67.1%. Using ECPS as a joint approach to isolate EVD suspects reduces the number of unnecessary isolations by 65.7%. CONCLUSION: The scores developed in our study showed a good performance as EVD case predictors since their use improved the net benefit, i.e., their clinical utility. These rapid and low-cost tools can help in decision-making to isolate EVD-suspicious cases at the triage point during an outbreak. However, these tools still require external validation and cost-effectiveness evaluation before being used on a large scale.

Malaria epidemic outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, part I: cross-sectional survey in Mweka District.

Background: A series of outbreaks of fever has previously been reported in the DR Congo. The occurrence of similar outbreaks in Mweka district presented the opportunity to investigate these occurrences. Materials and Methods: Health facilities and communities were visited. Permission was obtained to access to health records and a questionnaire was competed in the community. Blood samples for malaria, salmonellosis, Chikungunya, dengue and filovirus testing were obtained both in health facilities and the communities. Capture of mosquitoes and larvae in breeding sites was done and used bednets were collected. Excel, SPSS and Stats Direct were used for analyses of epidemiological data and malaria case management, with the Chi-square test and Fisher's Exact test used for assessing relationships resulting from contingency table analyses. Results: An increase in the number of malaria cases beyond the expected number for the study period was observed in the two health districts located in the savannah zone (p<0.05) and in one health centre among sixteen located in the forest zone (p<0.05). In the health facilities and households visited (653 people), 141 persons had fever of which 82.2% was attributed to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. An incidence of 5.87% was recorded in the first half of 2013. Hundred and sixty patients (6.9%) died among 2,304 admitted for severe malaria in the three referral hospitals, 118 of them were children of under five years old. PCR testing of the blood samples obtained during home visits revealed malaria parasites in 63 (73.3%) of the 86 analysed samples. The test was negative for other parasites and bacteria and one dengue virus case was detected. Anopheles gambiae from Mweka were found to be resistant to permethrin using the WHO susceptibility test, with a knock down rate of ≤ 50% and mortality of ≤ 30%. Conclusion: These investigations confirmed epidemic outbreaks in Mweka District caused by malaria with a high mortality rate in children below five years of age.

Clinical evaluation of circulating blood volume in critically ill patients--contribution of a clinical scoring system.

The circulating blood volume (CBV) of critically ill patients may be difficult to estimate on the basis of history and physical examination. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of seven clinical signs and central venous pressure (CVP) to predict CBV in critically ill patients; CBV was evaluated with the [125I]human serum albumin technique. A scoring system was constructed using a combination of independence Bayes method and logistic regression. Sixty-eight patients constituted a 'model development' sample and 30 patients a validation sample. Thirty-six patients (53%) in the model development sample were found to have a low CBV (measured CBV at least 10% lower than the predicted mean normal CBV). Neither the haemodynamic variables monitored in ICU, nor the spot urinary sodium concentrations were different between patients with and without a low CBV. Individually, none of the clinical signs tested have a good positive or negative predictive value. For CVP, only extreme values seem to have clinical significance. To construct the score, the signs tested were ranked according to their discriminating efficacy. The probability of a low CBV was obtained by adding the weights of each sign tested and converting the score obtained into a probability. On a validation sample of 30 patients, the predictions are reliable as assessed by Z statistics ranging between -2 and +2. Our results suggest that: (1) individually, no clinical sign presented a clinical useful predictive value; and (2) a clinical scoring system may be helpful for the evaluation of CBV in critically ill patients.

Prevention of postoperative pain after thyroid surgery: a double-blind randomized study of bilateral superficial cervical plexus blocks.

Local anesthetic infiltration may reduce postthyroidectomy pain. We performed a double-blinded, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to assess the analgesic efficacy of bilateral superficial cervical plexus blocks performed at the end of surgery. Ninety patients undergoing elective thyroid surgery by the same surgeon under general anesthesia were randomized to receive 20 mL isotonic sodium chloride or 20 mL bupivacaine 0.25% with 1:200,000 epinephrine. Postoperative pain was assessed every 4 h using an 11-point numeric rating scale (NRS-11). All patients received acetaminophen every 6 h. In addition, morphine was administered following a standardized protocol if the NRS-11 score was > or = 4. The main outcome variables were pain scores (NRS-11), the proportion of patients given morphine at any time during the 24-h period, and the amount of morphine administered. The Bupivacaine group had a smaller proportion of patients given morphine (66.0% vs 90.0%; P = 0.016), and lower initial median pain scores (P = 0.002). We conclude that bilateral superficial cervical plexus blocks significantly reduce pain intensity in the postoperative period after thyroid surgery but do not provide optimal pain relief alone.