Significant role of permafrost in regional hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin, India.

Upper Indus Basin (UIB), being climatologically sensitive and socio-economically important, has emerged as a hotspot for eco-hydrological studies. Permafrost, one of the essential components of the regional hydrological cycle with a critical role in microclimate, is also an important water resource in the UIB. Despite being an important component of the cryospheric system, permafrost is least studied in the UIB. In present study, we used stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition in supra-permafrost water (SPFW) and aufeis along with precipitation, snowpack, glacier and other groundwaters to assess their variability and estimate their contribution to regional hydrology. The sources are evolving isotopically, depending on physiographic and hydrometeorological factors, with each source attaining different (if not distinct) isotopic signatures. The isotopic signatures (with different ranges) of sources help in estimating the contribution from these sources. A significant altitude gradient of δ18O is observed in stream water, SPFW and other groundwaters. Isotopic composition in SPFW is differentially modulated by fractionation, resulting in isotopic variability from the source waters. The results suggest snowmelt and/or glacier melt as the source of SPFW. To stream flow, SPFW is the dominant contributor (43 ± 18 %) at higher elevations (> 4300 m a.m.s.l.) in July, followed by snowmelt (26 ± 10 %). In September, SPFW contribution decreases (14 ± 8 %), but the contribution from other groundwaters becomes dominant (39 ± 11 %) to stream flow. The results indicate the significant role of seasonal thawing and freezing of active layer on the contribution from SPFW. This study highlights the significant role of permafrost in the hydrological system of the basin. The study also emphasizes the need to understand the dynamics of permafrost, taliks of various types (e.g., supra-permafrost subaerial talik) and active layer under changing climate to define the subsequent implications to regional hydrology, eco-hydrological systems and micro-climate of permafrost regions.

Spatial and meteorological controls of stable water isotope dynamics of precipitation in Kashmir Valley, Western Himalaya, India.

In the Himalayas, the lives and livelihoods of millions of people are sustained by water resources primarily depending on the moisture brought by Western Disturbances and Indian Summer Monsoon. In the present study, a network of 12 precipitation stations was established across the Kashmir Valley to understand the spatial and meteorological factors controlling precipitation isotopes. Temperature and relative humidity are dominant meteorological factors, whereas altitude, proximity to forest canopy, land use/land cover, windward and leeward sides of the mountains are the main physical factors influencing precipitation isotopes. The study suggests that the Mediterranean Sea and nearby water bodies along with continental recycling are the dominant sources of moisture from October to May, while the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and continental recycling are the main sources of moisture from June to September. However, some precipitation events from October to May collect moisture from the Arabian Sea and some precipitation events from June to September collect moisture from the Mediterranean Sea. The occasional passage of Western Disturbances in summer merging with the Indian Summer Monsoon yields heavy to very heavy precipitation. The study provides a better understanding of complex spatial and meteorological phenomena controlling precipitation isotopes across the Western Himalayas.

Very high particulate pollution over northwest India captured by a high-density in situ sensor network.

Exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) is a cause of concern in cities and major emission regions of northern India. An intensive field campaign involving the states of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi national capital region (NCR) was conducted in 2022 using 29 Compact and Useful PM2.5 Instrument with Gas sensors (CUPI-Gs). Continuous observations show that the PM2.5 in the region increased gradually from < 60 µg m-3 in 6-10 October to up to 500 µg m-3 on 5-9 November, which subsequently decreased to about 100 µg m-3 in 20-30 November. Two distinct plumes of PM2.5 over 500 µg m-3 are tracked from crop residue burning in Punjab to Delhi NCR on 2-3 November and 10-11 November with delays of 1 and 3 days, respectively. Experimental campaign demonstrates the advantages of source region observations to link agricultural waste burning and air pollution at local to regional scales.

Impact of monsoon season rainfall spells on the ecosystem carbon exchanges of Himalayan Chir-Pine and Banj-Oak-dominated forests: a comparative assessment.

The Chir-Pine (Pinus roxburghii) and Banj-Oak (Quercus leucotrichophora)-dominated ecosystems of central Himalaya provide significant green services. However, responses of these ecosystems, with respect to ecosystem carbon flux variability, to changing microclimate are not yet studied. Since quantification of ecosystem responses to fluctuation in the microclimate, particularly rainfall, is expected to be beneficial for management of these ecosystems, this study aims (i) to quantify and compare amplitude of rainfall-induced change in the carbon fluxes of Chir-Pine and Banj-Oak-dominated ecosystems using wavelet methods, and (ii) to quantify and compare dissimilarities in the ecosystem exchanges due to varying rainfall spell and amount. Eddy covariance-based continuous daily micrometeorological and flux data, during the 2016-2017 monsoon seasons (total 244 days, 122 days of June-September), from two sites in Uttarakhand, India, are used for this purpose. We find that both Chir-Pine and Banj-Oak-dominated ecosystems are the sinks of carbon, and Chir-Pine-dominated ecosystem sequesters around 1.8 times higher carbon than the Banj-Oak. A systematic enhancement in the carbon assimilation of the Chir-Pine-dominated ecosystem is noted with increasing rainfall spell following a statistically significant power-law relationship. We have also identified a rainfall amount threshold for Chir-Pine and Banj-Oak-dominated ecosystems (10 ± 0.7 and 17 ± 1.2 mm, respectively) that resulted in highest ecosystem carbon assimilation in monsoon. The general inference of this study accentuates that Banj-Oak-dominated ecosystem is more sensitive to maximum rain within a spell whereas the Chir-Pine-dominated ecosystem is more responsive to increasing rainfall spell duration.

Developing a science-based policy network over the Upper Indus Basin.

The Upper Indus Basin's (UIB) unique geographical positioning and its ecosystem contributions to the downstream basin in the form of water and energy are of critical importance. UIB is also among the most vulnerable water towers in the world vis-a-vis climate as well as a host of environmental and socio-economic changes. The paucity of ground observations and their associated unknowns make it imperative to study and highlight the grey areas for attention and action by policy planners and basin government and management at different levels in order to improve the management and the governance structures for better water resource management. As this river basin is shared between countries, enhanced co-creation of knowledge can provide greater understanding of the challenges to stakeholders so that they can make better decisions regarding the development of the region. With this in view, the UIB network, comprising four national chapters (Afghanistan, China, India and Pakistan) linked strategically at regional level, was conceived to provide better understanding of the critical issues associated with the UIB. The network strives for a resilient and empowered UIB region through science-based regional cooperation, which promotes coordination and collaboration among organizations working in the UIB to ensure improved understanding of present and future water availability, demand and hazards and to develop gender sensitive solutions for all stakeholders. The special issue is one of such efforts from the network in knowledge generation, exchange, and dissemination to contribute towards an enhanced understanding of climate change impacts in the Indus. The paper presents a time-wise evolution of the network to highlight the importance of cross boundary knowledge and the relevance of such networks. Such a science-based network can provide important information for science-backed policies for the basin countries. It also details the achievements of the network, lessons learnt from such knowledge networks, and the potential for future contributions to basin countries taking into consideration the transboundary nature of the UIB.

Decoding the Karakoram Anomaly.

The 'Karakoram Anomaly' is termed as the stability or anomalous growth of glaciers in the central Karakoram, in contrast to the retreat of glaciers in other nearby mountainous ranges of Himalayas and other mountainous ranges of the world. It remains an intriguing scientific question to the researchers. An attempt is made to provide mechanisms leading to such a process and thus 'affirming' it. In view of this, meteorological and cryospheric processes, viz., glacial-atmosphere coupled interactions in tandem with temperature-moisture interactions and radiative balance- on glaciated regions are simultaneously argued over the Karakoram and the adjacent Ladakh. Ladakh is deliberately chosen to compare the weaknesses, lacuna and gaps in the observations/reanalyzes- so that similar forcings are investigated over both regions. It is important to mention that both regions are data sparse. Findings show that geographical and elevation positioning of the Karakoram makes its environmental conditions conducive for glacier stability and/or growth which otherwise is not the case in the Ladakh region. Indian winter monsoon, western disturbances (WDs) embedded within upper level subtropical westerly jet moving eastwards, provides higher moisture incursion which in association with lowered lifting condensation level dumps higher moisture/mass over Karakoram than Ladakh. In addition, role of 2 m surface (T2m) and skin temperature (Ts) is one of the leading driving mechanisms. Difference (T2m-Ts) illustrates inversion which provides stable atmosphere leading to dump all the available moisture/mass over Karakoram, which is contrary over Ladakh.

A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya.

On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 106 cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.

Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram.

Understanding the response of Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) rivers to climate change is crucial for ~1 billion people who partly depend on these water resources. Policy-makers tasked with sustainable water resources management require an assessment of the rivers' current status and potential future changes. We show that glacier and snow melt are important components of HK rivers, with greater hydrological importance for the Indus basin than for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Total river runoff, glacier melt, and seasonality of flow are projected to increase until the 2050s, with some exceptions and large uncertainties. Critical knowledge gaps severely affect modeled contributions of different runoff components, future runoff volumes, and seasonality. Therefore, comprehensive field observation-based and remote sensing-based methods and models are needed.

Integrated approach for effective debris mapping in glacierized regions of Chandra River Basin, Western Himalayas, India.

The mapping of debris in glacierized terrain is required for managing the water resources, glacier mass-balance studies and the monitoring of glacier health. Two types of debris i.e. Supraglacial debris (SGD) and periglacial debris (PGD) are derived from the same source i.e., surrounding valley rock and have similar reflectance which makes it difficult to differentiate between them. Hence, in this study a novel integrated approach is proposed where spectral information and thermal data from Landsat 8 Satellite image in conjunction with geomorphometric and topographic parameters extracted from SRTM DEM are utilized to classify SGD and PGD along with other classes in Chandra River Basin (CRB) covering the area of 2422.1 km2 in western Himalayas. Nearly one fourth of the study area is glacierized region while SGD and PGD cover nearly 7% of the study area. Accuracy of the classified data is assessed through comparison with manually digitized data set and minimal difference in area is observed. Results are validated with high resolution (10 m) Sentinel 2a image and data collected from field observations. The SGD is precisely demarcated with 93% accuracy with an overall 83.50% accuracy of classification. Thus, this work presents an efficient, better and prompt method for classifying glacierized areas more effectively than manual delineation at basin/sub-basin level.

Nitrogen oxides concentration and emission change detection during COVID-19 restrictions in North India.

COVID-19 related restrictions lowered particulate matter and trace gas concentrations across cities around the world, providing a natural opportunity to study effects of anthropogenic activities on emissions of air pollutants. In this paper, the impact of sudden suspension of human activities on air pollution was analyzed by studying the change in satellite retrieved NO2 concentrations and top-down NOx emission over the urban and rural areas around Delhi. NO2 was chosen for being the most indicative of emission intensity due to its short lifetime of the order of a few hours in the planetary boundary layer. We present a robust temporal comparison of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) retrieved NO2 column density during the lockdown with the counterfactual baseline concentrations, extrapolated from the long-term trend and seasonal cycle components of NO2 using observations during 2015 to 2019. NO2 concentration in the urban area of Delhi experienced an anomalous relative change ranging from 60.0% decline during the Phase 1 of lockdown (March 25-April 13, 2020) to 3.4% during the post-lockdown Phase 5. In contrast, we find no substantial reduction in NO2 concentrations over the rural areas. To segregate the impact of the lockdown from the meteorology, weekly top-down NOx emissions were estimated from high-resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) retrieved NO2 by accounting for horizontal advection derived from the steady state continuity equation. NOx emissions from urban Delhi and power plants exhibited a mean decline of 72.2% and 53.4% respectively in Phase 1 compared to the pre-lockdown business-as-usual phase. Emission estimates over urban areas and power-plants showed a good correlation with activity reports, suggesting the applicability of this approach for studying emission changes. A higher anomaly in emission estimates suggests that comparison of only concentration change, without accounting for the dynamical and photochemical conditions, may mislead evaluation of lockdown impact. Our results shall also have a broader impact for optimizing bottom-up emission inventories.

Synoptic-scale precursors of landslides in the western Himalaya and Karakoram.

In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), precipitation associated with synoptic-scale circulations impinges on the complex and steep orography of the western Himalaya and Karakoram. Heavy rainfall often falls over the foothills, frequently triggering landslides there. This study explores the role of these synoptic-scale circulations - extratropical western disturbances (WDs) and tropical depressions (TDs) - in producing the conducive conditions necessary to trigger landslides, using data from the NASA Global Landslide Catalog and WD and TD track databases. During the winter (October to April), UIB landslides peak in February and occur at a rate of 0.05 day-1, 61% of which are associated with the passage of a WD. They are most common when a WD is located within a few hundred kilometres of 30°N, and significantly rarer if the WD is north of 40°N. WDs provide moist southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and Mediterranean Sea to the UIB, resulting in large-scale precipitation, but landslide probability is not related to WD intensity. Non-WD winter landslides are associated with small-scale orographic precipitation that we hypothesise is due to cloudbursts. During the summer (May to September), UIB landslides peak in August and occur at a rate of 0.11 day-1, 60% of which are associated with TD activity. Many of these TDs are found over central India, slightly south of the climatological monsoon trough, where they provide strong monsoonal southeasterlies to the UIB flowing along the Himalayas. Increased landslide frequency is also associated with TD activity over the southern Bay of Bengal (BoB), and it is hypothesised that this is related to monsoon break conditions. Landslide frequency is significantly correlated with TD intensity. Non-TD landslides are associated with a northwestward extension of the monsoon trough, providing southeasterly barrier flow to the UIB. Implications for forecasting and climate change are discussed.

PM2.5 diminution and haze events over Delhi during the COVID-19 lockdown period: an interplay between the baseline pollution and meteorology.

Delhi, a tropical Indian megacity, experiences one of the most severe air pollution in the world, linked with diverse anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions. First phase of COVID-19 lockdown in India, implemented during 25 March to 14 April 2020 resulted in a dramatic near-zeroing of various activities (e.g. traffic, industries, constructions), except the "essential services". Here, we analysed variations in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over the Delhi-National Capital Region. Measurements revealed large reductions (by 40-70%) in PM2.5 during the first week of lockdown (25-31 March 2020) as compared to the pre-lockdown conditions. However, O3 pollution remained high during the lockdown due to non-linear chemistry and dynamics under low aerosol loading. Notably, events of enhanced PM2.5 levels (300-400 µg m-3) were observed during night and early morning hours in the first week of April after air temperatures fell close to the dew-point (~ 15-17 °C). A haze formation mechanism is suggested through uplifting of fine particles, which is reinforced by condensation of moisture following the sunrise. The study highlights a highly complex interplay between the baseline pollution and meteorology leading to counter intuitive enhancements in pollution, besides an overall improvement in air quality during the COVID-19 lockdown in this part of the world.

High frequency abrupt shifts in the Indian summer monsoon since Younger Dryas in the Himalaya.

In order to quantify the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability for a monsoon dominated agrarian based Indian socio-economy, we used combined high resolution δ13C, total organic carbon (TOC), sediment texture and environmental magnetic data of the samples from a ~3 m deep glacial outwash sedimentary profile from the Sikkim Himalaya. Our decadal to centennial scale records identified five positive and three negative excursions of the ISM since last ~13 ka. The most prominent abrupt negative ISM shift was observed during the termination of the Younger Dryas (YD) between ~11.7 and 11.4 ka. While, ISM was stable between ~11 and 6 ka, and declined prominently between 6 and 3 ka. Surprisingly, during both the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice age (LIA) spans, ISM was strong in this part of the Himalaya. These regional changes in ISM were coupled to southward shifting in mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and variations in East Asian monsoon (EAM). Our rainfall reconstructions are broadly in agreement with local, regional reconstructions and PMIP3, CSIRO-MK3L model simulations.

A review of atmospheric and land surface processes with emphasis on flood generation in the Southern Himalayan rivers.

Floods in the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas are a major cause of loss of life, property, crops, infrastructure, etc. They have long term socio-economic impacts on the habitat living along/across the Himalayas. In the recent decade extreme precipitation events have led to numerous flash floods in and around the Himalayan region. Sporadic case-based studies have tried to explain the mechanisms causing the floods. However, in some of the cases, the causative mechanisms have been elusive. Various types of flood events have been debated at different spatial and temporal scales. The present study provides an overview of mechanisms that lead to floods in and around the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas. Atmospheric processes, landuse interaction, and glacier-related outbreaks are considered in the overview.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies.

Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes.