Analysis of the Impact of Atmospheric Models on the Orbit Prediction of Space Debris.

Atmospheric drag is an important influencing factor in precise orbit determination and the prediction of low-orbit space debris. It has received widespread attention. Currently, calculating atmospheric drag mainly relies on different atmospheric density models. This experiment was designed to explore the impact of different atmospheric density models on the orbit prediction of space debris. In the experiment, satellite laser ranging data published by the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) were used as the basis for the precise orbit determination for space debris. The prediction error of space debris orbits at different orbital heights using different atmospheric density models was used as a criterion to evaluate the impact of atmospheric density models on the determination of space-target orbits. Eight atmospheric density models, DTM78, DTM94, DTM2000, J71, RJ71, JB2006, MSIS86, and NRLMSISE00, were compared in the experiment. The experimental results indicated that the DTM2000 atmospheric density model is best for determining and predicting the orbits of LEO (low-Earth-orbit) targets.

Ballistic Coefficient Calculation Based on Optical Angle Measurements of Space Debris.

Atmospheric drag is an important factor affecting orbit determination and prediction of low-orbit space debris. To obtain accurate ballistic coefficients of space debris, we propose a calculation method based on measured optical angles. Angle measurements of space debris with a perigee height below 1400 km acquired from a photoelectric array were used for orbit determination. Perturbation equations of atmospheric drag were used to calculate the semi-major-axis variation. The ballistic coefficients of space debris were estimated and compared with those published by the North American Aerospace Defense Command in terms of orbit prediction error. The 48 h orbit prediction error of the ballistic coefficients obtained from the proposed method is reduced by 18.65% compared with the published error. Hence, our method seems suitable for calculating space debris ballistic coefficients and supporting related practical applications.