RESUMO
Results from our model suggest that eating Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis-contaminated shell eggs caused 182,060 illnesses in the United States during 2000. Uncertainty about the estimate ranged from 81,535 (5th percentile) to 276,500 illnesses (95th percentile). Our model provides but 1 approach for estimating foodborne illness and quantifying estimate uncertainty.
Assuntos
Ovos/microbiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Intoxicação Alimentar por Salmonella/epidemiologia , Salmonella enteritidis/patogenicidade , Animais , Galinhas , Casca de Ovo/microbiologia , Humanos , Doenças das Aves Domésticas/microbiologia , Salmonelose Animal/microbiologia , Salmonella enteritidis/isolamento & purificação , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Simulation modeling can be used in aiding decision-makers in deciding when to invest in additional research and when the risky animal disease-import decision should go forward. Simulation modeling to evaluate value-of-information (VOI) techniques provides a robust, objective and transparent framework for assisting decision-makers in making risky animal and animal product decisions. In this analysis, the hypothetical risk from poultry disease in chicken-meat imports was modeled. Economic criteria were used to quantify alternative confidence-increasing decisions regarding potential import testing and additional research requirements. In our hypothetical example, additional information about poultry disease in the exporting country (either by requiring additional export-flock surveillance that results in no sign of disease, or by conducting additional research into lack of disease transmittal through chicken-meat ingestion) captured >75% of the value-of-information attainable regarding the chicken-meat-import decision.
