Recovering from the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic and Accelerating to Achieving the United Nations General Assembly Tuberculosis Targets.

In 2020, the novel COVID-19 pandemic replaced TB as the world's top cause of death from an infectious disease. The October 21, 2020 the UN Secretary-General report on progress towards implementation of the UNHLM political declaration on TB stresses that although high-level commitments and targets had galvanized global and national progress towards ending TB, urgent and more ambitious investments and actions were required, especially in lieu of the COVID-19 pandemic where associated public health measures and travel restrictions, have disrupted health services universally. The report sets out 10 priority recommendations to get the world on track to reach agreed targets by 2022. Political commitment is more critical than ever. COVID-19 diagnostic and vaccination health services need to be aligned to TB services with active early case finding in communities, engaging the private sector care providers and mitigation of fear and stigma. Healthcare staff and community workers and leaders need to be provided with COVID-19 vaccination and personal protective equipment. The UNHLM declaration committed to mobilize 15 billion USD per annum for TB, of which 13 billion USD is for TB care and 2 billion USD per annum for TB R&D. The Global Fund needs to increase funding for TB. Learning from the unprecedented speed of COVID-19 vaccine development, fastracking development and evaluation of TB vaccines is essential. World leaders need to urgently address and reverse the socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and these will determine to what extent they will impact on achieving TB targets.

Zoonotic tuberculosis in human beings caused by Mycobacterium bovis-a call for action.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is recognised as the primary cause of human tuberculosis worldwide. However, substantial evidence suggests that the burden of Mycobacterium bovis, the cause of bovine tuberculosis, might be underestimated in human beings as the cause of zoonotic tuberculosis. In 2013, results from a systematic review and meta-analysis of global zoonotic tuberculosis showed that the same challenges and concerns expressed 15 years ago remain valid. These challenges faced by people with zoonotic tuberculosis might not be proportional to the scientific attention and resources allocated in recent years to other diseases. The burden of zoonotic tuberculosis in people needs important reassessment, especially in areas where bovine tuberculosis is endemic and where people live in conditions that favour direct contact with infected animals or animal products. As countries move towards detecting the 3 million tuberculosis cases estimated to be missed annually, and in view of WHO's end TB strategy endorsed by the health authorities of WHO Member States in 2014 to achieve a world free of tuberculosis by 2035, we call on all tuberculosis stakeholders to act to accurately diagnose and treat tuberculosis caused by M bovis in human beings.

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS: We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS: Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A multi-site evaluation of innovative approaches to increase tuberculosis case notification: summary results.

BACKGROUND: Globally, TB notifications have stagnated since 2007, and sputum smear positive notifications have been declining despite policies to improve case detection. We evaluate results of 28 interventions focused on improving TB case detection. METHODS: We measured additional sputum smear positive cases treated, defined as the intervention area's increase in case notification during the project compared to the previous year. Projects were encouraged to select control areas and collect historical notification data. We used time series negative binomial regression for over-dispersed cross-sectional data accounting for fixed and random effects to test the individual projects' effects on TB notification while controlling for trend and control populations. RESULTS: Twenty-eight projects, 19 with control populations, completed at least four quarters of case finding activities, covering a population of 89.2 million. Among all projects sputum smear positive (SS+) TB notifications increased 24.9% and annualized notification rates increased from 69.1 to 86.2/100,000 (p = 0.0209) during interventions. Among the 19 projects with control populations, SS+TB case notifications increased 36.9% increase while in the control populations a 3.6% decrease was observed. Fourteen (74%) of the 19 projects' SS+TB notification rates in intervention areas increased from the baseline to intervention period when controlling for historical trends and notifications in control areas. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions were associated with large increases in TB notifications across many settings, using an array of interventions. Many people with TB are not reached using current approaches. Different methods and interventions tailored to local realities are urgently needed.

Results from early programmatic implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF testing in nine countries.

BACKGROUND: The Xpert MTB/RIF assay has garnered significant interest as a sensitive and rapid diagnostic tool to improve detection of sensitive and drug resistant tuberculosis. However, most existing literature has described the performance of MTB/RIF testing only in study conditions; little information is available on its use in routine case finding. TB REACH is a multi-country initiative focusing on innovative ways to improve case notification. METHODS: We selected a convenience sample of nine TB REACH projects for inclusion to cover a range of implementers, regions and approaches. Standard quarterly reports and machine data from the first 12 months of MTB/RIF implementation in each project were utilized to analyze patient yields, rifampicin resistance, and failed tests. Data was collected from September 2011 to March 2013. A questionnaire was implemented and semi-structured interviews with project staff were conducted to gather information on user experiences and challenges. RESULTS: All projects used MTB/RIF testing for people with suspected TB, as opposed to testing for drug resistance among already diagnosed patients. The projects placed 65 machines (196 modules) in a variety of facilities and employed numerous case-finding strategies and testing algorithms. The projects consumed 47,973 MTB/RIF tests. Of valid tests, 7,195 (16.8%) were positive for MTB. A total of 982 rifampicin resistant results were found (13.6% of positive tests). Of all tests conducted, 10.6% failed. The need for continuous power supply was noted by all projects and most used locally procured solutions. There was considerable heterogeneity in how results were reported and recorded, reflecting the lack of standardized guidance in some countries. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study begin to fill the gaps among guidelines, research findings, and real-world implementation of MTB/RIF testing. Testing with Xpert MTB/RIF detected a large number of people with TB that routine services failed to detect. The study demonstrates the versatility and impact of the technology, but also outlines various surmountable barriers to implementation. The study is not representative of all early implementer experiences with MTB/RIF testing but rather provides an overview of the shared issues as well as the many different approaches to programmatic MTB/RIF implementation.